Premiership Metrics - what do the last ten premiership teams have in common?

[djr 1,313]

On 8/15/2022 at 9:18 AM, binman said:

Agree. We are definitely struggling to run our games relative to our opposition at the moment.

In the last half of q4 the blues and the pies were winning the critical contests and looked the stronger sides. And the real tell was our inability to get overlap run and waves of players to transition the ball and create scoring chains 

Which is one reason I thought our win against the blues was so meritorious.

But if you support the concept of the dees having implemented a carefully calibrated periodisation program, then we are still on the upward trajectory physically and weeks away from our peak.

Whereas the pies and the blues are probably close to their peak. Which was helpful for them against us as both games were at finals like intensity levels.

A couple of contextual things to consider in comparing this year's physical readiness compared to last year.

The lighting was no doubt a factor in the Eagles game, but the fact remains the eagles ran out the 2021 round 21 game better. 

And the crows came back from a sizeable deficit in the second half of the round 22 game, to get within four goals, before three very late goals by us padded the margin.

And that game was little more than a run around compared to the intensity of the blues game. 

The lions game is fascinating in terms of the parallels with last year's round 23 game.

We are playing a top 4 team, on their home deck where they have a huge  home ground advantage and a win could help ensure a top 2 finish for us.

Geelong has a huge amount riding on that game last year as a win would mean they didn't have to play port at home in the qualifying final. 

The lions have even more riding on it than the cats did. They lose and they drop to 6th, as might we.

That scenario has a curious echo of last year too, in that the lions were the beneficiary of the dog's stumble against Port, and luckily scrapped into the top 4 at the dog's expense.

 

 

 

  

If you believe we are still struggling to run out games, particularly against the Blues and Pies, you will find that we had the same issue at the same time last year. We were nearly run over in the fourth quarter of both the WC and Crows games.

The Meters Gained stat is very interesting. It demonstrates which teams are the most effective at moving the ball with run and carry and breaking lines from their defensive zone. To be best requires high levels of fitness. This year, we are #2 (avg 6128m per game) to Richmond (6167m). Last year, we were #1 with 6083m. Our MG against the Blues and Pies was 5672 and 5682, respectively. Last year against WC and Crows our MG's were 5998 and 5708 respectively.

When we are firing and running on top of the ground our MG is well north of 6000. We move the ball forward at all costs in order to gain territory. At the same time, we put the opposition under extreme pressure, forcing turnovers, and their MG drops significantly as a result.

Our MG over last year's finals were insane - QF 6840; PF - 6545; GF - 6499. On Friday night we were moving into that territory with 6450.And it looked like that. 

[binman 41,945]

7 minutes ago, djr said:

 

  

If you believe we are still struggling to run out games, particularly against the Blues and Pies, you will find that we had the same issue at the same time last year. We were nearly run over in the fourth quarter of both the WC and Crows games.

The Meters Gained stat is very interesting. It demonstrates which teams are the most effective at moving the ball with run and carry and breaking lines from their defensive zone. To be best requires high levels of fitness. This year, we are #2 (avg 6128m per game) to Richmond (6167m). Last year, we were #1 with 6083m. Our MG against the Blues and Pies was 5672 and 5682, respectively. Last year against WC and Crows our MG's were 5998 and 5708 respectively.

When we are firing and running on top of the ground our MG is well north of 6000. We move the ball forward at all costs in order to gain territory. At the same time, we put the opposition under extreme pressure, forcing turnovers, and their MG drops significantly as a result.

Our MG over last year's finals were insane - QF 6840; PF - 6545; GF - 6499. On Friday night we were moving into that territory with 6450.And it looked like that. 

Great data. 

The numbers jags perfectly with my prediction we would be pretty close to our optimal physical readiness for the lions game.

Perhaps not fully wound up, which will terrify the other contenders, but close. 

As you imply, you don't need the numbers - you can see the difference between our fitness levels against the pies and blues (and of course right back o the first pies game) and the lions game with your eyes. 

I'm mindful some might think this is a  stretch, and apologies for posting this again, but i firmly believe our obvious increased zip and energy was flagged by Goody in his presser on the day before the game with these comments:

 "They feel physically fresh, they feel ready to go, we feel like we have been able to build some cohesion in the way we play in the last four or five weeks."

[WheeloRatings 1,159]

End of Home and Away Season Update

Firstly, thanks @Demonland @binman @george_on_the_outer for briefly touching on this thread in last week's podcast.

Here is an update to the Premiership Metrics following the end of the home and away season. I have updated the methodology to look at the past ten premiers in home and away matches only and removed some measures which were effectively duplicates. I have also grouped the metrics into categories to make the tables easier to read.

With these updates, there are 20 statistical categories in which at least eight of the last ten premiers ranked in the top 6. Eight of the last ten premiers were ranked in the top 6 in at least 17 of these 20 categories (the Western Bulldogs in 2016 and West Coast in 2018 ranked in the top 6 in 14 categories).

"Premiership Metrics" ranked in the top 6 in 2022 (out of 20)

• 19: Geelong
• 19: Melbourne
• 14: Sydney
• 11: Fremantle
• 10: Richmond
• 10: Brisbane
• 8: Collingwood
• 8: Western Bulldogs

What are the Premiership Metrics?

Where do teams ranks against these metrics in 2022?

Melbourne

Here are Melbourne's rankings for rounds 1-10, 11-19, 20-23 for both 2021 and 2022 and finals in 2021. In addition to the so-called "Premiership metrics" (in bold), I have included several other stats of interest. If anyone has any requests for inclusion of additional stats (from https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html), let me know.

Please note that Melbourne's comparatively harder fixture in the second half of this season compared to last season will have an impact on the rankings.

[Watson11 2,211]

Thanks @WheeloRatings Such great data.  

One small issue that probably skews the data every year is the draw and double-up games. Because of how uncompetitive North and the Eagles have been this year, it is even worse.  As an example, for inside 50 differential Geelong were approximately +50 and +40 against North and the Eagles the second time they played them.  If you removed those 2 games from their averages, their i50 differential drops from 5.7 (ranked #1) to ~1.7 (ranked ~#5).  Same for raw i50s and probably a host of other stats.

But great data so thanks.

[WheeloRatings 1,159]

26 minutes ago, Watson11 said:

Thanks @WheeloRatings Such great data.  

One small issue that probably skews the data every year is the draw and double-up games. Because of how uncompetitive North and the Eagles have been this year, it is even worse.  As an example, for inside 50 differential Geelong were approximately +50 and +40 against North and the Eagles the second time they played them.  If you removed those 2 games from their averages, their i50 differential drops from 5.7 (ranked #1) to ~1.7 (ranked ~#5).  Same for raw i50s and probably a host of other stats.

But great data so thanks.

Thanks @Watson11

Yes that's definitely an issue. I guess the best you could do to minimise the effect of the uneven fixture is take the average of the double up matches so each team gets an average per opponent, then take an average across the 17 opponents.

[binman 41,945]

52 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Thanks @Watson11

Yes that's definitely an issue. I guess the best you could do to minimise the effect of the uneven fixture is take the average of the double up matches so each team gets an average per opponent, then take an average across the 17 opponents.

Wheely brilliant work wheelo. I am discussing the data tonight.

On the above point, I think the fact you have used a ten year sample evens our some of the issues with the potential skewing of data. 

[WheeloRatings 1,159]

5 minutes ago, binman said:

Wheely brilliant work wheelo. I am discussing the data tonight.

On the above point, I think the fact you have used a ten year sample evens our some of the issues with the potential skewing of data. 

Thanks @binman I look forward to the discussion.

I agree it wouldn't have much impact on the overall methodology.

[WheeloRatings 1,159]

Just to add to my previous post, here is the summary for the past two home and away seasons for Melbourne.

[Hellish Inferno 992]

Interesting to see that in some categories where we've actually improved comparatively to last year we're ranked the same or slightly lower. Shows that the competition has improved as a whole?

Edited August 22, 2022 by Hellish Inferno
Re-check

[WheeloRatings 1,159]

On 8/22/2022 at 9:01 PM, Hellish Inferno said:

Interesting to see that in some categories where we've actually improved comparatively to last year we're ranked the same or slightly lower. Shows that the competition has improved as a whole?

Yes there have been some changes in the overall competition averages, but also the distribution of values for particular stats across the 18 teams may be different this year with two particularly weak teams this season.

Here are some of the notable changes (in AFL-wide team averages) from 2021 (including finals) to 2022 to date:

• Goals up from 11.5 to 12.1
• Shots at goal up from 24.3 to 24.8
• Accuracy up from 47.4% to 48.7%
• Inside 50s up from 51.4 to 52.3
• Metres gained up from 5542 to 5814
• Metres gained per disposal up from 15.2 to 16.2
• Clangers up from 57.1 to 60.2
• Hit-outs up from 34.4 to 35.7 (due to an increase in ruck contests from 85.4 to 89.4)
• Uncontested possessions down from 223.9 to 217.3
• One-on-one contests down from 17.3 to 15.3
• Marks down from 94.6 to 92.1
• Contested marks down from 11.5 to 10.7
• Marks inside forward 50 down from 11.5 to 11.1
• Marks on lead down from 7.9 to 7.3
• Play on % from kick-ins up from 82.8% to 85.3%

[layzie 32,803]

Interesting that accuracy is a little better than last year.

[WheeloRatings 1,159]

48 minutes ago, layzie said:

Interesting that accuracy is a little better than last year.

Yes it is interesting - I'm not sure whether it reflects a true improvement in accuracy or it's a reflection of location of shots being taken.

[Engorged Onion 10,124]

4 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Yes it is interesting - I'm not sure whether it reflects a true improvement in accuracy or it's a reflection of location of shots being taken.

Some of this would be great on the podcast 😍

If this post gets 50 likes,  would you consider an appearance! 😇

(apologies, I'm being a little cheeky with the pressure!)

 

[WheeloRatings 1,159]

17 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Some of this would be great on the podcast 😍

If this post gets 50 likes,  would you consider an appearance! 😇

(apologies, I'm being a little cheeky with the pressure!)

 

Haha I'm not taking that bet!

Binman said he'll discuss it on the podcast and he's a far better analyst of the game than I am 😉

[speed demon 804]

On 8/15/2022 at 8:17 AM, binman said:

Went back and found a post coach put up on this topic.

From that post, I've got it wrong in terms of being too specific about peaking on prelim day and maintaining that through to Grand Final day.

In this post, -coach- notes that such specificity is possible in an elite individual sport (eg Olympic swimming) but not in a team sport like the AFL (which is complex, Australia only, has lots of variables and involves so many participants).

From the post (my highlight):

'The standard of refinement in yearly team sports (competing weekly) and AFL (a one country sport) is miles lower and not designed for a one one event peak. Rather its designed to have the majority of your group in season best readiness for a block of around 4-5 weeks depending on what your final goal is. For example, for us, it would be to be hitting our straps before and throughout finals, whereas Collingwood will be in peak fitness now in a bid to make finals and then hold on as best they can (Kinda like us in 2018, when we just ran out of legs before the GF).'

From that i take we will aim to be close to our peak at the start of finals then do our best to maintain that through to GF day, should we make it.

Or even close to our peak this Friday night.

Friday night is 4  weeks out from the prelim and 5 weeks  out from the GF.

The last 15 minutes of the game quarter will tell the tale. If we are near our peak we should be running out this game powerfully.

As should the lions for that matter as they would have pretty similar program to us in terms of timing of readiness. 

 

Great thread. Thx @WheeloRatings.

@binman, I agree with what you posted above based on my experiences in distance running.  800/1500m runners can maintain their form at peak for 6-8 weeks if they manage their volume and intensity carefully. Sometimes, doing so is necessary to hit qualifying times and still perform at peak in the championship 8 weeks later. The marathon is the other extreme and runners adopt the strategy of aiming to peak on the day (and usually won't do a hard running session for four weeks afterwards). AFL is probably most comparable to 5,000/10,000m running in terms of load. There are numerous examples of 5,000/10,000m athletes performing personal best times - even world records - across a 4-5 week span. 

Even if there was a small potential gain in aiming to peak at PF or GF, this gain would be offset by the greater risk of not making the PF/GF. Additionally, the is also the positive effect on morale of hitting peak form leading into the finals, which should not be underestimated. 

So, my best guess is that a club believing itself to be a genuine premiership contender would plan their training to reach peak fitness for the final round of the season. With the following week off and with a QF final win this would mean 4 games over 6 weeks which would provide enough intensity as well as recovery to maintain peak fitness through to the GF. 

[Deenooos_ 647]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/purefooty/pure-footy-david-king-and-daniel-hoyne-look-at-key-stats-trends-for-first-week-of-finals/news-story/015e0e44a1fb36eed07f5cff487396ce 

- Interesting video with David King reviewing his 'core four' premiership metrics for each finals team over the last 6 weeks and how this influences each of the finals matchups.

Surprisingly, considering Geelong's easy draw they rank 3rd in these metrics and we rank 2nd. Daylight between top 3 and the rest. Obviously it isn't surprising that Geelong are not miles ahead like the media would have you think, and on the other side we are still right up there.

Edited August 30, 2022 by Deenooos_

[deanox 9,643]

On 8/24/2022 at 5:19 AM, WheeloRatings said:

...

Here are some of the notable changes (in AFL-wide team averages) from 2021 (including finals) to 2022 to date:

...

I'm particularly interested to see:

-Uncontested possessions down from 223.9 to 217.3

-One-on-one contests down from 17.3 to 15.3

-Metres gained up from 5542 to 5814

-Metres gained per disposal up from 15.2 to 16.2

-Marks on lead down from 7.9 to 7.3

 

This implies less handballs/short kicks to free players as well as less kicks to one on one contests. Probably more long kicks to bigger contests/packs.

I don't know if these changes represent an overall shift in AFL gamestyle or are just within the margin of error.