On 20/11/2021 at 09:34, Demonland said:

 

The new normal I think

Interesting to see what is the reaction in April

I've given up trying to predict government and public reactions these days

  On 20/11/2021 at 11:02, dieter said:

Um, don't take anything for granted. Most of the optimistic annunciations have come from Politicians and in Europe those same Politicians are talking about renewed pre-Christmas lockdowns. I ain't Cassandra, by the way, I'm reporting what is. 

The real problem the world faces is that Pandemics are not about THE ECONOMY.

The countries that are on the verge of going into lockdown again are those countries that haven't got enough people vaccinated

The 'Age' has a free to read vaccination rate segment for all countries.  As well as the details involving Australia.  Google will help with daily Covid cases per day

Germany & the UK for instance only have 'about' 2/3rds of its peoples vaccinated

So in real terms that means that the UK has about 23 million unvaccinated with Germany sitting at about 27 million unvaccinated.  Covid cases are high as a result ... often 40,000+ per day.  That number is obviously too high. 

Covid cases today in the USA hit 119,000 but only 58.74% of Americans are double vaccinated

By contrast Portugal has approximately  87.54% double vaxxed and only 291 covid cases today.  The UAE is sitting at 89.3% double vaxxed with 2698 cases of covid today

Here in Australia we are heading for a 95% vaccination rate for those aged 16 and over (and once those aged 12 and under are vaccinated we'll be at 95% right across the board)

Only 178 covid cases in NSW today

Make of those numbers what you will but the trends I see gives me confidence

By the time we're done we could be in front of just about every country in the world.  Setting a fine example

Even with the slow availability of the vaccine along with hesitancy rates, NSW is nearly at 92% double vaxxed and Victoria has almost caught up (just on 89% double vaxxed)

I'm a born realist so unless another strain of covid appears, I can't see us going into lockdown again

So the message is for everyone to do their civic duty and get vaccinated. It's the only way we can curtail this virus

In footy terms we'll be able to go the games next season at our leisure ... with a high probability of seeing the Demons go back to back

 

 

  On 20/11/2021 at 11:02, dieter said:

Um, don't take anything for granted. Most of the optimistic annunciations have come from Politicians and in Europe those same Politicians are talking about renewed pre-Christmas lockdowns. I ain't Cassandra, by the way, I'm reporting what is. 

The real problem the world faces is that Pandemics are not about THE ECONOMY.

 

  On 20/11/2021 at 12:30, Macca said:

The countries that are on the verge of going into lockdown again are those countries that haven't got enough people vaccinated

The 'Age' has a free to read vaccination rate segment for all countries.  As well as the details involving Australia.  Google will help with daily Covid cases per day

Germany & the UK for instance only have 'about' 2/3rds of its peoples vaccinated

So in real terms that means that the UK has about 23 million unvaccinated with Germany sitting at about 27 million unvaccinated.  Covid cases are high as a result ... often 40,000+ per day.  That number is obviously too high. 

Covid cases today in the USA hit 119,000 but only 58.74% of Americans are double vaccinated

By contrast Portugal has approximately  87.54% double vaxxed and only 291 covid cases today.  The UAE is sitting at 89.3% double vaxxed with 2698 cases of covid today

Here in Australia we are heading for a 95% vaccination rate for those aged 16 and over (and once those aged 12 and under are vaccinated we'll be at 95% right across the board)

Only 178 covid cases in NSW today

Make of those numbers what you will but the trends I see gives me confidence

By the time we're done we could be in front of just about every country in the world.  Setting a fine example

Even with the slow availability of the vaccine along with hesitancy rates, NSW is nearly at 92% double vaxxed and Victoria has almost caught up (just on 89% double vaxxed)

I'm a born realist so unless another strain of covid appears, I can't see us going into lockdown again

So the message is for everyone to do their civic duty and get vaccinated. It's the only way we can curtail this virus

In footy terms we'll be able to go the games next season at our leisure ... with a high probability of seeing the Demons go back to back

 

 

Dieter, I actually like most of your posts, but this is clearly incorrect. People losing their homes and businesses should ALWAYS be a consideration during a pandemic. Or don't you thing that's important also?

And Macca/Dieter, as much as I hate to admit it, I think the seemingly endless lockdowns and threats have "encouraged" ie: coerced many Australians to take the vax even though they had reservations. We are clearly one of the best in the world at takeup, and this should surely see us at the top of the list for border relaxation around the world. At least I hope this is the case. I live in a region that relies HEAVILY on tourism, and I would love to see all of you up here in the beautiful Whitsundays experiencing the reef/tropics and our awesome nightlife sometime soon.

Edited November 20, 20213 yr by faultydet
Spelt Dieter incorrectly twice. Needed to correct.

  On 20/11/2021 at 12:30, Macca said:

The countries that are on the verge of going into lockdown again are those countries that haven't got enough people vaccinated

Hmm. Yes, but not as simple as that. Not all these countries have the same take-up (or rules) when it comes to non-vax measures, especially masking. e.g., the difference between what you see on the Tube in London and the Metro in Paris is night and day. Same for things like cinemas, there's a big difference across countries. As for schools, in France, masks are compulsory, in Austria not (or not all the time). etc. etc.

Sticking with kids, there's also a difference in vax rates. France, Spain and Italy have over double the vax rates of 12-17 year olds than say, Germany.

On top of all that though, the main reason is that it's now winter. Everyone's cooped up indoors, ventilation is non-existent, and just as in 2020, and as we see every year with viruses like flu, rates go through the roof in Europe at this time of year. One of the reasons why the mediterranean countries like Spain and Italy are doing better for the moment, but presumably even they will feel the pinch once we get into December.

Edited November 20, 20213 yr by bing181

As faulty mentioned, we have a very high vaccination/take up rate and as we know, the vaccination works so it then just becomes a matter of how many get the vaccine

A 59% vaccination rate in the USA and around 70% for a number of European nations isn't going to work.  So the pandemic will continue on for the unvaccinated in those countries.

A pandemic for the unvaccinated

Covid will continue on in Australia as well but the numbers won't be high as there is a real chance that only about 5% will be unvaccinated.  7% tops.  Real numbers are trending strongly in that direction

And we have brought in measures that will encourage the unvaccinated to get the jab.  Effectively, another form of lockdown for those refusing the jab is now in place

No vaccine certificate, no entry

Hating on and pouring scorn on the unvaccinated isn't the answer though.  Gentle persuasion with positive incentives brought in can work.  Along with the education process showing these people that the vaccines are effective and safe

But Covid is out there and is everywhere (More so in Vic & NSW) so mask wearing along with a cautious attitude when applicable is still needed (in my view)

  On 20/11/2021 at 19:43, Macca said:

As faulty mentioned, we have a very high vaccination/take up rate and as we know, the vaccination works so it then just becomes a matter of how many get the vaccine

But as we're seeing, vax in itself isn't enough. Still need everything else: masking, social distancing,  etc., especially in enclosed spaces.

  On 20/11/2021 at 19:42, bing181 said:

Hmm. Yes, but not as simple as that. Not all these countries have the same take-up (or rules) when it comes to non-vax measures, especially masking. e.g., the difference between what you see on the Tube in London and the Metro in Paris is night and day. Same for things like cinemas, there's a big difference across countries. As for schools, in France, masks are compulsory, in Austria not (or not all the time). etc. etc.

Sticking with kids, there's also a difference in vax rates. France, Spain and Italy have over double the vax rates of 12-17 year olds than say, Germany.

On top of all that though, the main reason is that it's now winter. Everyone's cooped up indoors, ventilation is non-existent, and just as in 2020, and as we see every year with viruses like flu, rates go through the roof in Europe at this time of year.

Yes there is nuance with different measures still in place in different countries but having close on a 3rd of the people unvaccinated is asking for trouble.  There are still outliers either way but the aim has to be 90%+ vaccinated

Even at 80% vaccinated the effectiveness of covid is greatly reduced. 

Bottom line is that Australia is heading for 95% vaccinated where as a country like the USA may not ever get to 65% vaccinated.  Real numbers that point to real outcomes

We'll possibly level out out at 500-1000 cases per day in Australia (because of our vaccination rates) where as the USA had 119,000 cases yesterday (as an example)

The next big task in Australia is getting those aged 12 years or younger vaccinated.  And we need to do that as quickly as possible

  On 20/11/2021 at 19:46, bing181 said:

But as we're seeing, vax in itself isn't enough. Still need everything else: masking, social distancing,  etc., especially in enclosed spaces.

You edited out the bit where I mentioned ongoing mask wearing with a cautious ongoing approach (in Australia)

Personally, I'm not going into party mode but if I was still in my mid 20's it would almost certainly be a different story.  Even with the double jab, I do not want to contract covid under any circumstances

  On 20/11/2021 at 19:42, bing181 said:

Hmm. Yes, but not as simple as that

Yes it is. All of us will get the virus, or at least be exposed, many of whom will not become symptomatic or even test positive if they’re vaccinated. As @Maccasays, the societal burden of the illness - hospitalisation, death, and the subsequent need for lockdowns to control that eventuality - that which is currently being talked about and implemented in Europe is entirely on the back of unvaccinated numbers being too high. What these new ‘waves’ overseas are telling us is just how high the vaccinated population percentage needs to be to allow ‘normality’. We’re heading toward 95%, and even higher. Of course ‘spread control’ measures - masks and distancing - are important to slow population infection, but there is ONLY ONE way to negate the broader societal effect, the pandemic in the pandemic if you will, and that is massed vaccination. People are beginning to get the idea here, but jeez it’s frustrating how some (particularly overseas) just don’t. For self, for others, for societal ‘freedom’ - every single aspect of it - the solution couldn’t be more blindingly obvious. Oh, and if 99% of the over-12’s are vaccinated, it couldn’t matter less that the under-12’s aren’t. Evidence now tells us that even with Delta, kids mostly get a sniffle and a headache for a day, then come good and with antibody resistance to reinfection (for how long, who knows, so there should still be longer-term vaccination for them of course). 

Edited November 20, 20213 yr by Webber
Extra bit.

  On 20/11/2021 at 12:30, Macca said:

The countries that are on the verge of going into lockdown again are those countries that haven't got enough people vaccinated

 

 

 

I take your point: Singapore, though, is proving to be a fly in the 'Vacc' ointment. It's warm there, no sign of Winter Covid and  my understanding is they have an extremely high Vacc rate,  yet the numbers are suddenly very high again...

Once again, I don't want to do the Cassandra gig, it's just that the history of how to deal with pandemics has proven to be much more complicated than the bland optimism of many snake oil  Statesmen.

Edited November 20, 20213 yr by dieter

  On 20/11/2021 at 15:05, faultydet said:

 

Dieter, I actually like most of your posts, but this is clearly incorrect. People losing their homes and businesses should ALWAYS be a consideration during a pandemic. Or don't you thing that's important also?

 

Mister Faulty, I agree entirely that people losing their homes and businesses is sad and debilitating and drastic. It's just that I know too many people in the medical and auxiliary professions, who are very tired of politicians talking about this pandemic just in terms of 'The Economy.'

  On 20/11/2021 at 12:30, Macca said:

The countries that are on the verge of going into lockdown again are those countries that haven't got enough people vaccinated

The 'Age' has a free to read vaccination rate segment for all countries.  As well as the details involving Australia.  Google will help with daily Covid cases per day

Germany & the UK for instance only have 'about' 2/3rds of its peoples vaccinated

So in real terms that means that the UK has about 23 million unvaccinated with Germany sitting at about 27 million unvaccinated.  Covid cases are high as a result ... often 40,000+ per day.  That number is obviously too high. 

Covid cases today in the USA hit 119,000 but only 58.74% of Americans are double vaccinated

By contrast Portugal has approximately  87.54% double vaxxed and only 291 covid cases today.  The UAE is sitting at 89.3% double vaxxed with 2698 cases of covid today

Here in Australia we are heading for a 95% vaccination rate for those aged 16 and over (and once those aged 12 and under are vaccinated we'll be at 95% right across the board)

Only 178 covid cases in NSW today

Make of those numbers what you will but the trends I see gives me confidence

By the time we're done we could be in front of just about every country in the world.  Setting a fine example

Even with the slow availability of the vaccine along with hesitancy rates, NSW is nearly at 92% double vaxxed and Victoria has almost caught up (just on 89% double vaxxed)

I'm a born realist so unless another strain of covid appears, I can't see us going into lockdown again

So the message is for everyone to do their civic duty and get vaccinated. It's the only way we can curtail this virus

In footy terms we'll be able to go the games next season at our leisure ... with a high probability of seeing the Demons go back to back

 

 

Probably/ possibly with advances in the vaccination tweaks and other interventions even a new strain will only see the targeted lockdowns we are being  told to accept now.

Other than that though " high probability  of back to back " seems wildly optomistic.

Double chance yes,but as we speak opposition coaches with an eye to finals are analysing the Dees game in a way they could never be bothered to do previously.

A few injuries and we' re  ripe ...

  On 20/11/2021 at 23:46, dieter said:

I take your point: Singapore, though, is proving to be a fly in the 'Vacc' ointment. It's warm there, no sign of Winter Covid and  my understanding is they have an extremely high Vacc rate,  yet the numbers are suddenly very high again...

Once again, I don't want to do the Cassandra gig, it's just that the history of how to deal with pandemics has proven to be much more complicated than the bland optimism of many snake oil  Statesmen.

Well my view is a realistic view ... using raw data and real numbers. 

In real terms many countries have far too many of its citizens unvaccinated.  We in Australia won't have that issue. 

An optimist might proclaim that the pandemic is over or perhaps deny that we ever had a problem in the first place (although I'd have a more apt description for the latter category)

And I reckon we could reach 96% or 97% vaccinated if we brought in some positive incentives for the unvaccinated.  The disincentives would however be having an effect.  Reality sinks in eventually

With some, you'll never change their minds.  The pandemic will never be over for those types as covid isn't going to die off

  On 20/11/2021 at 23:55, IRW said:

Probably/ possibly with advances in the vaccination tweaks and other interventions even a new strain will only see the targeted lockdowns we are being  told to accept now.

Other than that though " high probability  of back to back " seems wildly optomistic.

Double chance yes,but as we speak opposition coaches with an eye to finals are analysing the Dees game in a way they could never be bothered to do previously.

A few injuries and we' re  ripe ...

Yeah well, I was being slightly flippant adding in a light-hearted prediction in a thread that is a tad serious

But of course we can go back-to-back all things being equal. I reckon our biggest issue is if we sit back.  The talent and know-how is better than the rest (right now) 

  On 20/11/2021 at 20:58, Webber said:

Yes it is. All of us will get the virus, or at least be exposed, many of whom will not become symptomatic or even test positive if they’re vaccinated. As @Maccasays, the societal burden of the illness - hospitalisation, death, and the subsequent need for lockdowns to control that eventuality - that which is currently being talked about and implemented in Europe is entirely on the back of unvaccinated numbers being too high. What these new ‘waves’ overseas are telling us is just how high the vaccinated population percentage needs to be to allow ‘normality’. We’re heading toward 95%, and even higher. Of course ‘spread control’ measures - masks and distancing - are important to slow population infection, but there is ONLY ONE way to negate the broader societal effect, the pandemic in the pandemic if you will, and that is massed vaccination. People are beginning to get the idea here, but jeez it’s frustrating how some (particularly overseas) just don’t. For self, for others, for societal ‘freedom’ - every single aspect of it - the solution couldn’t be more blindingly obvious. Oh, and if 99% of the over-12’s are vaccinated, it couldn’t matter less that the under-12’s aren’t. Evidence now tells us that even with Delta, kids mostly get a sniffle and a headache for a day, then come good and with antibody resistance to reinfection (for how long, who knows, so there should still be longer-term vaccination for them of course). 

My only concern is that unless those 12yo or younger get vaccinated they have a greater chance of contracting the disease (albeit in a much milder way)  More so aged 5 - 11

And of course if they bring the disease home to unvaccinated family members, the disease keeps spreading

There was an article about a week or 2 ago where high profile health professionals from 4 effected countries warned Australia about the measures we still had to put in place ... one of those measures was to get the young vaccinated.  The other issues surrounded keeping vigil on safeguards and to not let our guard down

But we're coming up to school holidays so I'm expecting a mass vaccination of the children once the new school year starts.  There was talk of late 2021 (Pfizer) but no approval yet

  On 20/11/2021 at 23:55, IRW said:

Probably/ possibly with advances in the vaccination tweaks and other interventions even a new strain will only see the targeted lockdowns we are being  told to accept now.

And let's not forget the huge game-changer ... Molnupiravir.  Already available for emergencies and just approved in the UK

And I don't even want to think about a new strain IRW ... all bets are off if that happens!

  On 20/11/2021 at 23:52, dieter said:

Mister Faulty, I agree entirely that people losing their homes and businesses is sad and debilitating and drastic. It's just that I know too many people in the medical and auxiliary professions, who are very tired of politicians talking about this pandemic just in terms of 'The Economy.'

There is not a single politician who has spoken about this pandemic "just in terms of 'The Economy"

Your medical and auxiliary professional friends are full of [censored].

The voices for the economic impact have just got louder the longer the lockdowns have dragged on, and rightly so.

Edited November 21, 20213 yr by faultydet
spelling

  On 20/11/2021 at 19:46, bing181 said:

But as we're seeing, vax in itself isn't enough. Still need everything else: masking, social distancing,  etc., especially in enclosed spaces.

People can say what they like about our Premier, but thank God we don't require those face diapers up here in Queensland where I am.

In this entire pandemic, our region has had to mask up for a grand total of 7 days from memory, unless entering a testing facility.

Viruses such as Covid do not enjoy warm climates it seems. Europe can have their winter snow. I'll take the Covid-free heat thanks very much.

  On 21/11/2021 at 01:17, faultydet said:

There is not a single politician who has spoken about this pandemic "just in terms of 'The Economy"

Your medical and auxiliary professional friends are full of [censored].

The voices for the economic impact have just got louder the longer the lockdowns have dragged on, and rightly so.

And I cannot blame anyone for talking through their hip-pocket.  A lot of people have gone out of business because of the lockdowns

You just have to let people vent in these special circumstances

I know a couple who own a gym and there were a few times where they were staring at bankruptcy... somehow they have scraped through (but they are heavily out-of-pocket)

One of 1000's of stories ... their dreams squashed.  They either do something else or start all over again

Part of the protest group?  High probability for many (in my view)

Edited November 21, 20213 yr by Macca

  On 21/11/2021 at 01:33, faultydet said:

People can say what they like about our Premier, but thank God we don't require those face diapers up here in Queensland where I am.

In this entire pandemic, our region has had to mask up for a grand total of 7 days from memory, unless entering a testing facility.

Viruses such as Covid do not enjoy warm climates it seems. Europe can have their winter snow. I'll take the Covid-free heat thanks very much.

You be looking at masks the wrong way Faulty, they are a fashion item  ..mix and match with shirt and socks    or even knickers if you're a lady off to the nightclub to meet a new friend...the final gradual unveiling would be excellent. 

But then I'm old with a vivid imagination .( smile)

No doubt there is a hot weather advantage  though,my Maleny friends keep asking questions  and one came down here for 3 months to care for her sister and found it eye opening ( to say the least)

With regards to the footy re covid

Crowds will be back but capacity crowds can't be expected or to be concerned about (at least in the short term)

A certain percentage will be covid-shy and won't want to be subjected to crowded situations (more so the over 55's)

That thinking could change though if the covid cases drop to much lower levels (specifically here in Victoria and to a lesser extent, NSW*)

And more people are now used to watching live sport at home in HD on huge screens ... a much cheaper alternative

I can see membership sales being maintained and/or increased though (across the board)  That connection and support will be continued

We could hit 60k-65k members but will we pack out the MCG consistently?  Initially yes but after that?

 

*A healthy attendance of 24k attended the Western Sydney Wanderers vs Sydney FC game last night

 

  On 21/11/2021 at 01:10, Macca said:

 

And I don't even want to think about a new strain IRW ... all bets are off if that happens!

That's precisely what I'm referring to...

  On 21/11/2021 at 01:10, Macca said:

And let's not forget the huge game-changer ... Molnupiravir.  Already available for emergencies and just approved in the UK

Production is the issue here as usual Macca. Needs to be given early and will likely be rationed to those with very high risk.

2022 is increasingly looking like a year which the world will stumble through.

After two years of no meaningful travel my patience is almost exhausted.

Might do a long roadtrip through the USA around March including Mexico perhaps.

  On 21/11/2021 at 01:17, faultydet said:

There is not a single politician who has spoken about this pandemic "just in terms of 'The Economy"

Your medical and auxiliary professional friends are full of [censored].

The voices for the economic impact have just got louder the longer the lockdowns have dragged on, and rightly so.

They are not full of (censored0) at all. In fact, they are exhausted and overworked and have to wear the full protective regalia all day long, and, just for the record, Frydenburg and Scomo have regularly referred to 'getting the economy' kick started again.

  On 21/11/2021 at 02:56, dieter said:

That's precisely what I'm referring to...

You worry too much dieter

Deal with what you need to deal with and stop concerning yourself with doomsday thinking