How Good Draft Choices Can Make or Break an AFL Team

[Deemania since 56 6,634]

2 minutes ago, rjay said:

Depth is always a bit of an illusion...

I hope we don't have to see it too much this year at AFL level.

Depth will never replace your champion players, we need them on the ground.

Undoubtedly, we do need these players on the ground. In 2017 we lost this option - and we cut ourselves to make amends and adjustments. Should this happen again, our preparation for 2018 will largely be wasted without depth - the Hawks, in particular, have done well in this regard. We should, too. (Just an opinion...)

[Diamond_Jim 12,568]

Don't recall "the depth" shining in 2017.

Three Casey regulars have their AFL careers on the line. Same with Vandenberg.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,753]

On 1/3/2018 at 8:46 AM, greenmachine said:

just look at the hawkes

 

What do Ethan and Ryan Hawke have to do with this story?

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,753]

On 12/31/2017 at 9:55 PM, Little Goffy said:

 I get so tired of economists, I really do. Economic statisticians in particular.

There are a number of little fluffy statements that should be read as 'please note massive caveat on data and circular interpretation'. For example " While Melbourne did better with its lower picks, those players generally aren’t as important for team performance as players selected with higher picks. "

Terrible charts, badly labelled, inconsistent formats being presented as if they are a like for like comparison. Conclusions thrown in as inserted sentences well before the discussion of the actual evidence. This is embarrassing to read.

Anyway, to the substance.

Richmond's 2005 and 2007 drafts were among the worst of any club, ever. Their 2010 draft was made respectable only by picking up Houli in the pre-season instead of a trade, unless you're a real fan of Reece Conca. 2011 produced only one player, Brandon Ellis.

As discussed in a number of other threads, Richmond's premiership hinged on an amazing surge of recruitment in just the last few years, with close to half their premiership team arriving since 2012.

Anyway... back to griping about economic statisticians.

What the hell is going on with that first chart? Every year only has two data points, except for 2009... oh... oh my.

Oh boy oh boy. I have a hunch... let me just check a few things... yep.

capslock time

PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AT UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE HAS INCLUDED ONLY PLAYERS STILL IN THE RICHMOND TEAM FIVE YEARS LATER AS DATA POINTS WHEN ASSESSING DRAFT PERFORMANCE

Basically, all failures have been excluded from the sample, in a 'study' that claims to assess success or failure.

Nailed it.

And having said that "Having the best players is no guarantee of winning - other factors like training and coaching also matter", the article then ignores those other factors and assumes that the draft means everything.

[DeeSpencer 25,680]

Drafting matters. Without elite talent you don't win and without a depth of A, B and C graders you lose leadership, skill and confidence and everything goes down hill. We've been there. Now we are at the stage where development to turn talent in to results is really vital but it has to be combined with continually adding talent through the draft. I think every year you lose a couple of good players through age, injury or trades so you have to keep bringing in some good ones as well. 

This thread has turned to Richmond though so I'd say there success was drafting absolute A graders from 2006-2009, developing them over time and then some good (But not great) trading and drafting particularly in the last few years.

At the time of the grand final:

Jack Riewoldt - 28
Alex Rance - 27
Trent Cotchin - 27
Dustin Martin - 26

Other Tigers players: No one over 30 - not that over 30 is a problem but if you are over 30 you need to be in a position where experience outweighs physical capabilities.
2 kids under 21 - Rioli, Graham - both with strong and fit bodies and defined defensive roles.
Every other Tiger was at peak fitness 

The challenge for our fitness and coaching staff is to find and develop the right guys who can play week in week out so when it gets to crunch time we aren't carrying underdeveloped players. That's where injuries and luck come in. Sustained drafting lets your list develop that over time.

It took Rance until about 24 to grow in to his game and become dominant, Lever has to adjust to a new team and show he can do that.
It took Dustin until 25 to hit his peak. That's a big challenge for Petracca to get their sooner. And Clarry. Hopefully both.
It took Riewoldt until 28 to really buy in to defensive pressure. Hogan has to do it ASAP.
It took Cotchin until 27 to realise his job as Captain was to lead with actions not words and to return to Brownlow form that he hadn't seen in 3+ years. Viney has to adapt to the captaincy as well.

Finally it took Hardwick 3 years of finals failure and a 4th down year to realise his team needed pace, aggressive ball movement and a simple game plan to succeed. Then it took injuries to talls to go all in on that game plan and use Caddy and Grigg as talls. The old saying "you're only an injury away from having a good team" took hold.
 

 

[Deemania since 56 6,634]

2 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Drafting matters. Without elite talent you don't win and without a depth of A, B and C graders you lose leadership, skill and confidence and everything goes down hill. We've been there. Now we are at the stage where development to turn talent in to results is really vital but it has to be combined with continually adding talent through the draft. I think every year you lose a couple of good players through age, injury or trades so you have to keep bringing in some good ones as well. 

This thread has turned to Richmond though so I'd say there success was drafting absolute A graders from 2006-2009, developing them over time and then some good (But not great) trading and drafting particularly in the last few years.

At the time of the grand final:

Jack Riewoldt - 28
Alex Rance - 27
Trent Cotchin - 27
Dustin Martin - 26

Other Tigers players: No one over 30 - not that over 30 is a problem but if you are over 30 you need to be in a position where experience outweighs physical capabilities.
2 kids under 21 - Rioli, Graham - both with strong and fit bodies and defined defensive roles.
Every other Tiger was at peak fitness 

The challenge for our fitness and coaching staff is to find and develop the right guys who can play week in week out so when it gets to crunch time we aren't carrying underdeveloped players. That's where injuries and luck come in. Sustained drafting lets your list develop that over time.

It took Rance until about 24 to grow in to his game and become dominant, Lever has to adjust to a new team and show he can do that.
It took Dustin until 25 to hit his peak. That's a big challenge for Petracca to get their sooner. And Clarry. Hopefully both.
It took Riewoldt until 28 to really buy in to defensive pressure. Hogan has to do it ASAP.
It took Cotchin until 27 to realise his job as Captain was to lead with actions not words and to return to Brownlow form that he hadn't seen in 3+ years. Viney has to adapt to the captaincy as well.

Finally it took Hardwick 3 years of finals failure and a 4th down year to realise his team needed pace, aggressive ball movement and a simple game plan to succeed. Then it took injuries to talls to go all in on that game plan and use Caddy and Grigg as talls. The old saying "you're only an injury away from having a good team" took hold.
 

 

A very interesting and logical series of discussion points raised here by DeeSpencer. Worthy of thought and reflection - all the way.

[jumbo returns 6,741]

Tiges hunted in packs, ran hard in numbers to a contest and supported each other to the ends of the earth

Mindfulness

Oh, yeah....and Dusty

[rjay 24,917]

25 minutes ago, jumbo returns said:

Tiges hunted in packs, ran hard in numbers to a contest and supported each other to the ends of the earth

Mindfulness

Oh, yeah....and Dusty

They lose Rance and it all goes to Dust...

[DaveyDee 421]

On 12/31/2017 at 3:55 PM, Demonised said:

An interesting academic article analysing recent AFL drafts, with particular reference to Melbourne, and not in a good way ...

https://theconversation.com/how-good-draft-choices-can-make-or-break-afl-teams-88870

The key sentence in the whole document is "a partial explanation" - there is no long term evidence to suggest drafts are an equalisation tool in AFL football. 

In reality the opposite is the case -  drafting errors are symptomatic of far deeper problems. 

Drafting "success" in todays game - is a combination of many other key factors ironically the roadmap to success was created by the Port Adelaide football club in the early 2000's. The model still holds true today. 

 

[DaveyDee 421]

18 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Drafting matters. Without elite talent you don't win and without a depth of A, B and C graders you lose leadership, skill and confidence and everything goes down hill. We've been there. Now we are at the stage where development to turn talent in to results is really vital but it has to be combined with continually adding talent through the draft. I think every year you lose a couple of good players through age, injury or trades so you have to keep bringing in some good ones as well. 

This thread has turned to Richmond though so I'd say there success was drafting absolute A graders from 2006-2009, developing them over time and then some good (But not great) trading and drafting particularly in the last few years.

At the time of the grand final:

Jack Riewoldt - 28
Alex Rance - 27
Trent Cotchin - 27
Dustin Martin - 26

Other Tigers players: No one over 30 - not that over 30 is a problem but if you are over 30 you need to be in a position where experience outweighs physical capabilities.
2 kids under 21 - Rioli, Graham - both with strong and fit bodies and defined defensive roles.
Every other Tiger was at peak fitness 

The challenge for our fitness and coaching staff is to find and develop the right guys who can play week in week out so when it gets to crunch time we aren't carrying underdeveloped players. That's where injuries and luck come in. Sustained drafting lets your list develop that over time.

It took Rance until about 24 to grow in to his game and become dominant, Lever has to adjust to a new team and show he can do that.
It took Dustin until 25 to hit his peak. That's a big challenge for Petracca to get their sooner. And Clarry. Hopefully both.
It took Riewoldt until 28 to really buy in to defensive pressure. Hogan has to do it ASAP.
It took Cotchin until 27 to realise his job as Captain was to lead with actions not words and to return to Brownlow form that he hadn't seen in 3+ years. Viney has to adapt to the captaincy as well.

Finally it took Hardwick 3 years of finals failure and a 4th down year to realise his team needed pace, aggressive ball movement and a simple game plan to succeed. Then it took injuries to talls to go all in on that game plan and use Caddy and Grigg as talls. The old saying "you're only an injury away from having a good team" took hold.
 

 

Oh if you only knew the truth - Tigers road to success was "challenging" but we enjoyed every minute, every up and down and I didnt even barrack for them. However, when you believe in something the head can overrule the heart.  

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,753]

14 hours ago, rjay said:

They lose Rance and it all goes to Dust...

And if they lose Dusty, it all goes rancid.

[Grimes Times 1,278]

20 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

Drafting matters. Without elite talent you don't win and without a depth of A, B and C graders you lose leadership, skill and confidence and everything goes down hill. We've been there. Now we are at the stage where development to turn talent in to results is really vital but it has to be combined with continually adding talent through the draft. I think every year you lose a couple of good players through age, injury or trades so you have to keep bringing in some good ones as well. 

This thread has turned to Richmond though so I'd say there success was drafting absolute A graders from 2006-2009, developing them over time and then some good (But not great) trading and drafting particularly in the last few years.

At the time of the grand final:

Jack Riewoldt - 28
Alex Rance - 27
Trent Cotchin - 27
Dustin Martin - 26

Other Tigers players: No one over 30 - not that over 30 is a problem but if you are over 30 you need to be in a position where experience outweighs physical capabilities.
2 kids under 21 - Rioli, Graham - both with strong and fit bodies and defined defensive roles.
Every other Tiger was at peak fitness 

The challenge for our fitness and coaching staff is to find and develop the right guys who can play week in week out so when it gets to crunch time we aren't carrying underdeveloped players. That's where injuries and luck come in. Sustained drafting lets your list develop that over time.

It took Rance until about 24 to grow in to his game and become dominant, Lever has to adjust to a new team and show he can do that.
It took Dustin until 25 to hit his peak. That's a big challenge for Petracca to get their sooner. And Clarry. Hopefully both.
It took Riewoldt until 28 to really buy in to defensive pressure. Hogan has to do it ASAP.
It took Cotchin until 27 to realise his job as Captain was to lead with actions not words and to return to Brownlow form that he hadn't seen in 3+ years. Viney has to adapt to the captaincy as well.

Finally it took Hardwick 3 years of finals failure and a 4th down year to realise his team needed pace, aggressive ball movement and a simple game plan to succeed. Then it took injuries to talls to go all in on that game plan and use Caddy and Grigg as talls. The old saying "you're only an injury away from having a good team" took hold.
 

 

Richmond 2017 was the perfect storm.

No Injuries, fully fit squad.

Key players ( 1 fwd, 1 back, 2 mids)  in form, in right age bracket playing to there maximum. Martin goes to another level.

All finals at home ground, prelim and GF against interstate clubs.

GF opponent and favorite had a stinker

Capitalised on a game plan edge.

Good luck to them but a lot went there way last year.

If they have injures to players similar to us last season (Gawn, Hogan, Jones) they miss finals and become middle of the road.

 

 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,753]

1 hour ago, Grimes Times said:

Richmond 2017 was the perfect storm.

No Injuries, fully fit squad.

Key players ( 1 fwd, 1 back, 2 mids)  in form, in right age bracket playing to there maximum. Martin goes to another level.

All finals at home ground, prelim and GF against interstate clubs.

GF opponent and favorite had a stinker

Capitalised on a game plan edge.

Good luck to them but a lot went there way last year.

If they have injures to players similar to us last season (Gawn, Hogan, Jones) they miss finals and become middle of the road.

 

 

Given "perfect storm" is usually an expression which is used to explain disasters...you've nailed it!