A Day at the Races

[Gorgoroth 12,918]

I nearly always do poorly at MV and today was no exception. 
on a brighter note I’m alive and still $150 up so that covers sat and hopefully the cup.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

10 minutes ago, Macca said:

Well we went 3 from 6 today which is a vast improvement on last week (zip)

All 3 that got up tightened in the market but 3-1  could be had on Lys Gracieux (BM) & Amangiri early doors.  And Master of Wine (DZ) was a moral. 

I coffee outlay on all 6 races could have returned 10 coffees.  And the 3 that won was a standout multi within the multi.  Especially Lys Gracieux & Master of Wine.

This week 6: 3 - 0 - 0

 

Yep i took the 3 in a multi, so that got me up on the day. Thanks to the brilliant selections from the team!

[Macca 16,902]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yep i took the 3 in a multi, so that got me up on the day. Thanks to the brilliant selections from the team!

I thought about it but you know what 'thought' did?  Busy at work again of course but they were the 3 standouts (and that's with no disrespect to the 3 other picks)

It's just what jumps out at you Wadda.  And because we now will probably have the choice of 6 picks,  picking the eyes out of the 6 should be looked upon as a bonus. 

And as individuals each one of us wants to deliver a winner and that's another plus.

But tradition says we only keep the team score rather than individual strike rates.  I also reckon we now don't need to necessarily look for value with our picks.

Standout winners only thank you very much!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

I thought about it but you know what 'thought' did?  Busy at work again of course but they were the 3 standouts (and that's with no disrespect to the 3 other picks)

It's just what jumps out at you Wadda.  And because we now will probably have the choice of 6 picks,  picking the eyes out of the 6 should be looked upon as a bonus. 

And as individuals each one of us wants to deliver a winner and that's another plus.

But tradition says we only keep the team score rather than individual strike rates.  I also reckon we now don't need to necessarily look for value with our picks.

Standout winners only thank you very much!

I took several combinations of the six including putting some of them into other runners and quaddies etc. Those 3 stood out to me.

[Macca 16,902]

45 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I took several combinations of the six including putting some of them into other runners and quaddies etc. Those 3 stood out to me.

I like to find positives when it comes to sport Wadda ... but sometimes those positives are hard to find! 

So the more the merrier when it comes to the best bets I say.  We can sort it all out as individuals (as you've done)

Just so long as we don't compete with each other by keeping each race as a seperate pick.  First in,  best dressed so to speak. 

We could end up with a 12 pick multi (which gets up) and in turn clean out the TAB of their complete funds!

Edited October 26, 2019 by Macca

[Gorgoroth 12,918]

27 minutes ago, Macca said:

I like to find positives when it comes to sport Wadda ... but sometimes those positives are hard to find! 

So the more the merrier when it comes to the best bets I say.  We can sort it all out as individuals (as you've done)

Just so long as we don't compete with each other by keeping each race as a seperate pick.  First in,  best dressed so to speak. 

We could end up with a 12 pick multi (which gets up) and in turn clean out the TAB of their complete funds!

I was close to doing a 3 horse multi but stuck with a all in approach. 
 

But tbh I reckon in future I’ll do one of each. I like seeing what you guys think and  if I think the same, as I did with Humidor and Sikandarabad so I would have prob lucked out anyway ?

[Macca 16,902]

15 minutes ago, Gorgoroth said:

I was close to doing a 3 horse multi but stuck with a all in approach. 
 

But tbh I reckon in future I’ll do one of each. I like seeing what you guys think and  if I think the same, as I did with Humidor and Sikandarabad so I would have prob lucked out anyway ?

I follow a couple of tipsters (David Gately & James Jordan) and they are both a big help.  Especially if you're an exotics punter.

They have their off days but 1 of them is usually on their game most weekends.  Gator & JJ's tips are listed on www.racing.com.au. 

JJ is wasted in Adelaide though.  He'd dominate if he was based out of Sydney.  The trouble with Morphettville are that the fields are too small and there is a limited amount of value to be had.  He quite regularly picks 4 or 5 winners most Saturday's though. 

 

Footnote:  Gator tipped 4 of the last 5 winners at Randwick today (tips were available at www.skyracing.com.au)  He also tipped 3 winners at the Valley. 

Edited October 26, 2019 by Macca

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

I like to find positives when it comes to sport Wadda ... but sometimes those positives are hard to find! 

So the more the merrier when it comes to the best bets I say.  We can sort it all out as individuals (as you've done)

Just so long as we don't compete with each other by keeping each race as a seperate pick.  First in,  best dressed so to speak. 

We could end up with a 12 pick multi (which gets up) and in turn clean out the TAB of their complete funds!

I thought the last pick (yours) was going to get swamped but held them off in a fighting win. Truly outstanding.

[Macca 16,902]

23 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I thought the last pick (yours) was going to get swamped but held them off in a fighting win. Truly outstanding.

Yes it was a great fighting win by Amangiri ... had a little on for the win but I never load up these days.  Prefer to have a small interest in a number of races Wadda.

And last night that system of betting paid off with Loving Gaby & Vital Silver in the Manikato Stakes. 

'Sale Cup' on tomorrow to keep things ticking over.  Fancy 'Romancer' to get into the finish but 'Mr Money Bags' might run a bold race.  They run for $200k ... it's race 8 for those with an interest.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

A bit of a twist on which jockey will ride Melb Cup favourite Constantinople. Luke Nolen lost the ride after the Caulfield Cup when connections decided to engage Glen Boss as a replacement. Nolen expressed his disappointment on social media earlier in the week albeit in a classy manner.

Boss has now been suspended for careless riding from the Randwick meeting yesterday and is set to miss the big race. Boss will roll the dice and appeal but news reports state it will be highly unlikely the appeal succeeds.

Is Nolen’s phone about to get a call from Lindsay Park again?

If I believed in MFCSS, I’d say this is unsettling for my top pick in the Cup.

[Macca 16,902]

2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

A bit of a twist on which jockey will ride Melb Cup favourite Constantinople. Luke Nolen lost the ride after the Caulfield Cup when connections decided to engage Glen Boss as a replacement. Nolen expressed his disappointment on social media earlier in the week albeit in a classy manner.

Boss has now been suspended for careless riding from the Randwick meeting yesterday and is set to miss the big race. Boss will roll the dice and appeal but news reports state it will be highly unlikely the appeal succeeds.

Is Nolen’s phone about to get a call from Lindsay Park again?

If I believed in MFCSS, I’d say this is unsettling for my top pick in the Cup.

The English racing identity 'Matt Chapman' gave the Hayes clan (and the owners*) a serve after they sacked Nolen and mentioned that there was no justification in doing so.

And I agree with him.

And now they've got got their just deserts and are stuck between a rock and a hard place.  Stubborness will possibly win out so I don't expect Nolen to be reinstated.

And if one was to watch the Caulfield Cup again (closely) it's hard to see what Nolen did wrong.  It was a roughhouse affair at times and he just got caight up in it.  As did a number of other jockeys.  In an 18 horse field over 2400m at a tight course like Caulfield - what do people expect?

*Coolmore are the principle owners of Constantinople

 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

17 minutes ago, Macca said:

The English racing identity 'Matt Chapman' gave the Hayes clan (and the owners*) a serve after they sacked Nolen and mentioned that there was no justification in doing so.

And I agree with him.

And now they've got got their just deserts and are stuck between a rock and a hard place.  Stubborness will possibly win out so I don't expect Nolen to be reinstated.

And if one was to watch the Caulfield Cup again (closely) it's hard to see what Nolen did wrong.  It was a roughhouse affair at times and he just got caight up in it.  As did a number of other jockeys.  In an 18 horse field over 2400m at a tight course like Caulfield - what do people expect?

*Coolmore are the principle owners of Constantinople

 

I’ll admit I was very surprised Nolen got taken off Macca. Also thought he didn’t do much wrong in the Caulfield Cup run.

Interesting to see how this plays out now.

[Macca 16,902]

10 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

I’ll admit I was very surprised Nolen got taken off Macca. Also thought he didn’t do much wrong in the Caulfield Cup run.

Interesting to see how this plays out now.

As an aside,  the strength of the Japan horses over the middle distances and as stayers dates back a few decades when they decided to buy up as many USA Derby winners as was possible.

Dating back to one horse in particular (I've forgotten the name of the horse) where the bloodlines continue on to this day.  So it was a long term plan.

And that is what it takes to be highly competitive in a now Worldwide racing industry

Thankfully our sprinter/miler stocks and bloodlines are very strong so that's where our strengths lie (1000m up to a mile)

And NSW racing has taken up the slack with regards to those types of races. 

Smart thinking DZ

[binman 42,591]

I had a brilliant day yesterday. Lots of winners and got 41% of the first four in the plate. Could have been even bigger as i as i got a couple of close seconds and had marked broadwayandfourth but went more conservative and landed on Mint something. 

Made up somewhat for a nightmare weekend over the grand final where my mate and did not get a collect over the three days (save for a few money back for running second and third in Melb and Syd races 1-6 that sportsbet, and other, have -  great deal i reckon as it is like an each way bet. Had three yesterday). Had marked the winner of 80% of the races too making but puled the wrong rein each time. 

On the first four i don't actually like following any tipsters. And i never listen or read any before i do my form. I like to trust my own judgement and find it colors my assessment. Once i have completed doing all my form and  mark all horses i think can win in each race  i will then sometimes read tips or listen/watch some tipping shows and might use that info in totality to land on on my selection. I was not going to put Calcevivechio in my my first four but was swayed by  the views of a number of tipsters and their reminder he was carrying only 49.5. Very please i listened. 

[Macca 16,902]

7 minutes ago, binman said:

On the first four i don't actually like following any tipsters. And i never listen or read any before i do my form. I like to trust my own judgement and find it colors my assessment. Once i have completed doing all my form and  mark all horses i think can win in each race  i will then sometimes read tips or listen/watch some tipping shows and might use that info in totality to land on on my selection. I was not going to put Calcevivechio in my my first four but was swayed by  the views of a number of tipsters and their reminder he was carrying only 49.5. Very please i listened. 

I am like that at Sha Tin ... I found a tipping website with a whole host of tipsters battling away but none of them are any good.

Golden rule is to follow Purton & Moreira up there because not only are they clearly the best 2 jockeys but they're often on the best horses.  But Sha Tin racing isn't for everyone.  For me,  it's one of my favourite racing venues (along with Flemington & Randwick)

Down here most of the tipsters are quite average except for Gator & JJ.  Both are quite brilliant and to ignore either is asking for trouble.  They know their stuff and their biases are fairly minor.

Let's face it,  they know more than we could ever know but most tipsters have some sort of bias.  And you can't be biased when on the punt.  That's their issue.  Bias.

For instance,  I've got a mate (older) who has so many biases (hates the Sydney way of going,  various trainers,  various jockeys etc etc) that I often wonder how he could possibly ever win!  Actually,  he doesn't win very often so there you go.

I like to take it all in and then filter out the rubbish.  But in the end there is an enormous amount of luck involved.

It's not like footy where it often boils down to list quality vs list quality.  i.e if you've got enough good players you can win and if you haven't got enough good players you won't win.  Horse racing is often quite different.

e.g Bivouac was a moral beaten on Friday might ... locked in and couldn't get out.  That's racing. 

[binman 42,591]

For me i guess  that what i most most enjoy about punting is doing my form and selecting who i think will win. Like trying to sort out a puzzle. I lose that enjoyment if i follow a tipster's selections (and you're right about Gator, he is pretty good). I like to back myself in.

But i do like to keep informed about any issues that impact on how my form analysis - eg track condition, history, how the track might play, race shape, weather etc. And the perspective of tipsters is great for this sort of stuff. I really like BZ and Hutchy for this stuff.

On boas i try to be as objective as possible with form and put a lot of stock in weights, rating, record at track/distance/conditions, first and second up form etc. I put weight on the jockey, trainer and a bit on the barrier. And i have a preference for hoses that race on speed. I don't look at time much, to my detriment probably. But all in all i have pretty good strike rate.

All of the above howver applies to the punting i do with my mate with our banck. Whan i'm having random punt myself at the pub tab that is all of the window (no time when you are machine gun betting!). I really like the Racenet app you put me onto Macca. Reads super well and their tips are really good. And i go for vibe betteing. Which is a recipe for losing of course.

[binman 42,591]

On track bias this website is brilliant and highly recommenced:

http://www.australianracingreport.com/index.html

https://melbournetrackreport.com/track-bias-report.html

Edited October 27, 2019 by binman

[Macca 16,902]

James Jordan (JJ) once said that if he was punting to win money only that he would only bet at Darwin.

His reckoning was that there are limited amount of horses running up there and they are always racing against each other.  Therefore the form became easy to evaluate. 

Partly explains why JJ does so well tipping at Morphettville.  Same horses running around with a 2 or 3 week break in between. 

[Macca 16,902]

A few replays from yesterday and today (including another stunning victory by 'Almond Eye' in the Tenno Sho - run today)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Go the Biff 3,414]

12 hours ago, Macca said:

As an aside,  the strength of the Japan horses over the middle distances and as stayers dates back a few decades when they decided to buy up as many USA Derby winners as was possible.

Dating back to one horse in particular (I've forgotten the name of the horse) where the bloodlines continue on to this day.  So it was a long term plan.

And that is what it takes to be highly competitive in a now Worldwide racing industry

Thankfully our sprinter/miler stocks and bloodlines are very strong so that's where our strengths lie (1000m up to a mile)

And NSW racing has taken up the slack with regards to those types of races. 

Smart thinking DZ

Sunday Silence is the one you’re thinking of Macca. Won 2 legs of the ’89 Triple Crown before going down narrowly to Easy Goer in the Belmont. YouTube it – it’s one of the great home straight duels, reminiscent of Bonecrusher v Our Waverley Star.

He sired some absolute crackers in Japan including Deep Impact, Manhattan Café, Zenno Rob Roy & Heart’s Cry to name a few. Heart’s Cry sired Saturday’s Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux and the ill-dated Caulfield Cup winner Admire Rakti.

As a sire of sires Sunday Silence has had a profound influence on Japanese racing. I think it was Arrowfield who sent mares to him in Japan a while back. Sunday Joy was the result of one mating. She went on win an AJC Oaks. Can’t recall what became of the others.

The Japanese are mad for Arc winners. I think winning that is their Holy Grail. Tony Bin, Helissio, Workforce & Carnegie are a few of the Arc winners they’ve imported to stand at stud.

Their “Triple Crown” races go from 2000 metres to 2400 metres with the third leg at 3000 metres and they breed accordingly.

We on the other hand have an industry which has spent the last 50 years trying to win a Golden Slipper. We’ve managed to produce the odd champion middle distance horse – Winx, So You Think etc but when you see veterans like Hartnell (imported) and Black Heart Bart still competitive on our WFA races, it’s a damning indictment on the depth of our ranks above 1200 metres

[Macca 16,902]

9 hours ago, Go the Biff said:

Sunday Silence is the one you’re thinking of Macca. Won 2 legs of the ’89 Triple Crown before going down narrowly to Easy Goer in the Belmont. YouTube it – it’s one of the great home straight duels, reminiscent of Bonecrusher v Our Waverley Star.

He sired some absolute crackers in Japan including Deep Impact, Manhattan Café, Zenno Rob Roy & Heart’s Cry to name a few. Heart’s Cry sired Saturday’s Cox Plate winner Lys Gracieux and the ill-dated Caulfield Cup winner Admire Rakti.

As a sire of sires Sunday Silence has had a profound influence on Japanese racing. I think it was Arrowfield who sent mares to him in Japan a while back. Sunday Joy was the result of one mating. She went on win an AJC Oaks. Can’t recall what became of the others.

The Japanese are mad for Arc winners. I think winning that is their Holy Grail. Tony Bin, Helissio, Workforce & Carnegie are a few of the Arc winners they’ve imported to stand at stud.

Their “Triple Crown” races go from 2000 metres to 2400 metres with the third leg at 3000 metres and they breed accordingly.

We on the other hand have an industry which has spent the last 50 years trying to win a Golden Slipper. We’ve managed to produce the odd champion middle distance horse – Winx, So You Think etc but when you see veterans like Hartnell (imported) and Black Heart Bart still competitive on our WFA races, it’s a damning indictment on the depth of our ranks above 1200 metres

Thanks for that GtB.  Excellent analysis.  First rate.

Well we at least know we stand and where we sit in the whole scheme of things

And to get to a point of where we'd produce an abundance of great middle distance runners and stayers would take quite some time.  And that's if we started now

In the meantime Aussie punters will just have to take a much greater interest in overseas racing and to read up on overseas form in a more analytical way.  Sites such as Racingpost & RacingUK are very good for form analysis

I like to highlight some overseas racing here on this site but punters are generally only really interested if they're betting on a race.  Which is quite easy to do these days.

For instance ... I had a double at Longchamp last night (2 x G1 races) Got the first winner up (down to 2 runners!) whilst the 2nd leg runner was scratched.  Very small collect but a win is a win.

 

Edited October 27, 2019 by Macca

[Macca 16,902]

Here are the 2 races in question (Longchamp) 

Run on a heavy track so a number of scratchings ... but Dettori gets another Group 1 winner for the season (albeit in a canter)  Is that 19 Group1 winners for the season?

 

 

 

Edited October 27, 2019 by Macca

[Macca 16,902]

20 hours ago, Go the Biff said:

Sunday Silence is the one you’re thinking of Macca. Won 2 legs of the ’89 Triple Crown before going down narrowly to Easy Goer in the Belmont. YouTube it – it’s one of the great home straight duels, reminiscent of Bonecrusher v Our Waverley Star.

Oh and if you get a chance GtB let us know your best bet for the weekend.  But only if you've got the time of course.

We're now working on picking the eyes out of all the tips as we (as individuals) see fit.

Plus,  a small outlay on a massive paying super-multi.  We're allowed to dream because after all,  we're all Demons here!

Otherwise,  good luck on the punt!

Edited October 28, 2019 by Macca

[Macca 16,902]

On 10/26/2019 at 9:15 PM, Wadda We Sing said:

I took several combinations of the six including putting some of them into other runners and quaddies etc. Those 3 stood out to me.

And of course it's always better to talk about how we configured our best (from the best) after the event Wadda

Works the same way as say perhaps a 'lay of the day' which might end up potting someone's pick (inadvertently per se)

I'm sure we all put a bit of effort into our picks so I prefer to take them all on face value and sort out my preferences in the background. 

Just a thought. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

31 minutes ago, Macca said:

And of course it's always better to talk about how we configured our best (from the best) after the event Wadda

Works the same way as say perhaps a 'lay of the day' which might end up potting someone's pick (inadvertently per se)

I'm sure we all put a bit of effort into our picks so I prefer to take them all on face value and sort out my preferences in the background. 

Just a thought. 

No, i always put on the full combination of picks.....then just do a few others. There were plenty of combos i didnt get!