A Day at the Races

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

10 hours ago, Macca said:

Never bought into race horses although I've had a few opportunities to do so (part owner only!)

I do have a first cousin who was a high profile bookmaker though ... retired now.  We share the same way of thinking - percentage plays,  analysis,  probability factors etc. 

Bookies can do well unless they're not totally switched on.  As for us punters,  we need a good dose of luck just to break even.

Sorry mate, I didn't mean to sound like I had full ownership in one of my previous posts, I was only involved in a small percentage of a broodmare and inherited the same percentage in all her foals. 

Problem was the syndicate manager took her to stud every year for 6 years and the costs were too high in the end. 

Your not wrong about needing luck just to break even.

Edited November 3, 2017 by Demon77

[Macca 17,015]

1 minute ago, Demon77 said:

Sorry mate, I didn't mean to sound like I had full ownership in one of my previous posts, I was only involved in a small percentage of a broodmare and inherited the same percentage in all her foals. 

Problem was the syndicate manager took her to stud every year for 6 years and the costs were too high in the end.

I didn't read it that way anyway D77 ... I know plenty who have done what you've done - just part owners of various percentages.  I've just never indulged. 

I do like frequenting the races though ... Derby day especially is a fantastic day if you've got a decent vantage point or paid for a decent seat.  That's how I've done it previously, usually with just a couple of friends.  I put all my bets on and then just enjoy the day.  The madding crowd can please themselves. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

On 11/2/2017 at 10:44 PM, Macca said:

9 Group races on Saturday (Derby day) ... the best betting day on the calendar. 

I'll be doing the form on Friday night in a comprehensive way with a view to finding some first 4 combinations. 

3 horses to win,  5 horses to come second & third with 7 horses to come fourth is my usual multiple combination. 

It used to be 3,  5 & 5 for trifectas but the lure of the big dividends for a first 4 is too strong. 

 @Wadda We Sing  @Diamond_Jim  @ProperDee @Toorak... got any ideas,  suggestions or tips? 

Hi Macca, ive been following a few and its the best betting day for sure. Shortest odds i yesterday was 3.60! The big fields tho can make it hard to find a winner, but back at Flemington will make it easier than the track bias winners of recent weeks.

Im staying with Ace High in the Darby. Its been winning for me so why get off now? Dont leave out the Waller horse with Shinn on board. Its flying from all reports. You can throw any of them in for your first fours but a good outsider is Eshtiraak. Hayes seems to have them coming from nowhere as of late.

As for the rest of the day, i like Hyaam in race 2, Mick Price. Race 3 a good outsider is Conchita, went well last start and is 34/1. Im staying on Nieta here for obvious reasons. Race 4 The Lexus, im on Kellstorm, a Galileo horse and brother to Order of St George, trained by DK Weir gets in well with the wieghts.

race 5 is too hard, although catchy goes alright and at 8/1 is good value. Race 6 staying with Gai and Global Glamour, french Emotion was blocked in last start and is over the odds. Race 7 is the Darby.  Race 8 is the Weir runner Tosen Stardom, was originally set for the Cox Plate but came here instead. Brained em at Caulfield last start over the same distance. Lucky Hussler is the danger so there is your quinella.

As a final thought i have most of the above runners going into Honduras to win against Australia in the first away world cup qualifier at 2.05. With Tim Cahill going down last night, we have no chance at this away venue. So double your odds on any runner...haha.

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

If nothing works for any of you today maybe this article can bring the fellas some luck. 

https://www.google.com.au/amp/m.huffingtonpost.com.au/amp/2017/11/02/tiberian-the-worlds-most-unlikely-melbourne-cup-horse-came-from-caesar-the-teaser-pony_a_23265188/

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

18 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

If nothing works for any of you today maybe this article can bring the fellas some luck. 

https://www.google.com.au/amp/m.huffingtonpost.com.au/amp/2017/11/02/tiberian-the-worlds-most-unlikely-melbourne-cup-horse-came-from-caesar-the-teaser-pony_a_23265188/

Classic D77, great read.

[Clintosaurus 7,852]

Great win by Ace High. Got $7.50 which I was very happy with. Eat a dick Dusty.

[Macca 17,015]

Yep ... Ace High was 3 deep for a lot of the run.  A commanding performance. 

It's a pity my first 2 picks in the 2 earlier races dipped out!

 

 

 

 

 

 

.

Edited November 4, 2017 by Macca

[Clintosaurus 7,852]

1 minute ago, Macca said:

Yep ... Ace high was 3 deep for a lot of the run.  A Commanding performance. 

It's a pity my first 2 picks are still running!

What was the jock on Sully doing? FMD that was a strange ride.

[Macca 17,015]

9 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

What was the jock on Sully doing? FMD that was a strange ride.

Yeah both the 1st and 2nd horses were caught out in awkward positions.

Be interesting to see what they do with Ace High now ... it looks a real stayer.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

Great win by Ace High. Got $7.50 which I was very happy with. Eat a dick Dusty.

 

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Yeah both the 1st and 2nd horses were caught out in awkward positions.

Be interesting to see what they do with Ace High now ... it looks a real stayer.

Yes i thought so too. A start in next years Melbourne Cup a possibility. Last horse to win Derby and Melbourne Cup was Efficient in 2006-07.

I somehow managed to snag the quaddie which paid surprisingly well, considering it had pretty much 3 favs. The tip from the guy in the local pub here in Ballarat was....... follow Weir, drink beer....

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

13 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

 

Yes i thought so too. A start in next years Melbourne Cup a possibility. Last horse to win Derby and Melbourne Cup was Efficient in 2006-07.

I somehow managed to snag the quaddie which paid surprisingly well, considering it had pretty much 3 favs. The tip from the guy in the local pub here in Ballarat was....... follow Weir, drink beer....

Nice work. The quaddie dividend surprised me as well.

I cost myself by leaving out Ace High,  almost as inexcusable as our Rd 23 performance. Huge win. You would have thought I jumped on this thread for a reason.

I liked Tom Melbourne today and ProperDee talked up Shillelagh so I took the quinella. Happy to end up in front on Derby day.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

On 11/3/2017 at 8:03 AM, ProperDee said:

Hi Macca.  I have owned 5 racehorses over the years. 4 in Melbourne and 1up here in Brisbane.  My punting days go back to the time when the ladies in the TAB’s around Melbourne hand wrote the tickets! I really don’t have a bet very often nowadays but do enjoy lashing out at this time of the year.  

Gee, those First 4’s are hard but as you said, the potential dividends are huge.  I have a good mate that boxes 2x4xFxF but only for a low percentage. He often jags a decent return because he leaves the favourite right out of selections 1and 2.

What I have noticed over the years watching Spring Carnivals is that horses that finished 1st or 2nd at their most recent start, regardless of where that may have been, figure prominently in most races.  Moreso than at the average race meeting.  Of course, often there are quite a few runners in a race with that form, sometimes not so many.  I have had some good results by basing trifectas and particularly quinellas, around them.

Off to get my copy of the Sportsman now and will drop some selections for tomorrow in later. I already like Shillelagh in whichever race it goes round in. Huge run last start.

Cheers

PD

Thanks for posting that, i popped it into my quad, otherwise i would have missed it. I owe you a beer!

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

5 minutes ago, Demon77 said:

Nice work. The quaddie dividend surprised me as well.

I cost myself by leaving out Ace High,  almost as inexcusable as our Rd 23 performance. Huge win. You would have thought I jumped on this thread for a reason.

I liked Tom Melbourne today and ProperDee talked up Shillelagh so I took the quinella. Happy to end up in front on Derby day.

It was the pick of the day really in hindsight. The jockey said it could have gone around again. Well done on the Quinella and on now to the big race!

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

1 minute ago, Wadda We Sing said:

It was the pick of the day really in hindsight. The jockey said it could have gone around again. Well done on the Quinella and on now to the big race!

Barrier draw commencing shortly. Really liked the run of Marmelo in the Caulfield cup and looks better suited over 3200m.

[Macca 17,015]

 I was a little down on the day but got a couple of late collects  ... Ace High in a trifecta & Rich Charm in the last got me out of jail.  As per usual,  I was close to winning tens of thousands. ha ha 

That was a terrific feel-good story with Rich Charm's trainer Udyta Clarke. 

So, it's on the Cup,  The Oaks & Emirates Stakes day. 

[Macca 17,015]

Previously I've backed a few horse to win the cup and sometimes up to 5 horses with a view to tripling my total outlay.  But lately I've done a trifecta and/or a first 4 with the field going for me for 3rd (trifecta) or 4th (first 4)

I see Lloyd Williams has 6 runners and both Darren Weir and Irish trainer Willie Mullins have 3 runners each.

The field with their barrier number's ...

MELBOURNE CUP FIELD

1. Hartnell - D Lane 12

2. Almandin - F Dettori 14

3. Humidor - B ShinN 13

4. Tiberian - O Peslier 23

5. Marmelo - H Bowman 16

6. Red Cardinal - K McEvoy 24

7. Johannes Vermeer - B Melham 3

8. Bondi Beach - M Walker 1

9. Max Dynamite - Z Purton 2

10. Ventura Storm - G Boss 6

11. Who Shot Thebarman - T Berry 20

12. Wicklow Brave - S Baster 8

13. Big Duke - B Avdulla 5

14. US Army Ranger - J Spencer 22

15. Boom Time - C Parish 9

16. Gallante - M Dee 18

17. Libran - D Dunn 7

18. Nakeeta - G Schofield 19

19. Single Gaze- K O’Hara 11

20. Wall Of Fire - C Williams 15

21. Thomas Hobson - J Moreira 21

22. Rekindling - C Brown 4

23. Amelie’s Star - D Yendall 10

24. Cismontane - B Mertens 17

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

52 minutes ago, Macca said:

Previously I've backed a few horse to win the cup and sometimes up to 5 horses with a view to tripling my total outlay.  But lately I've done a trifecta and/or a first 4 with the field going for me for 3rd (trifecta) or 4th (first 4)

I see Lloyd Williams has 6 runners and both Darren Weir and Irish trainer Willie Mullins have 3 runners each.

The field with their barrier number's ...

MELBOURNE CUP FIELD

1. Hartnell - D Lane 12

2. Almandin - F Dettori 14

3. Humidor - B ShinN 13

4. Tiberian - O Peslier 23

5. Marmelo - H Bowman 16

6. Red Cardinal - K McEvoy 24

7. Johannes Vermeer - B Melham 3

8. Bondi Beach - M Walker 1

9. Max Dynamite - Z Purton 2

10. Ventura Storm - G Boss 6

11. Who Shot Thebarman - T Berry 20

12. Wicklow Brave - S Baster 8

13. Big Duke - B Avdulla 5

14. US Army Ranger - J Spencer 22

15. Boom Time - C Parish 9

16. Gallante - M Dee 18

17. Libran - D Dunn 7

18. Nakeeta - G Schofield 19

19. Single Gaze- K O’Hara 11

20. Wall Of Fire - C Williams 15

21. Thomas Hobson - J Moreira 21

22. Rekindling - C Brown 4

23. Amelie’s Star - D Yendall 10

24. Cismontane - B Mertens 17

Interesting....Hartnell, Almandin and Humidor all drawn next to each other in the middle of the field. The odds of that happening alone are huge!! They are my three main runners. Ill be supporting local trainer DK Weir with the lightweight Amelies Star. Who Shot the Barman will get the trip and has hit form. (9yo tho) Single Gaze, Marmello, Rekindling, Boom Time,  Max Dynamite, Johannes Vermeer and i have to throw in Tiberian....for the multiples. Ill come up with a few more no doubt. Im also a fan of having the field for a leg in Trifects and FF..

As mentioned on air this morning....and worth noting, that no international horse has won first up in The Melbourne Cup since Vintage Crop.

Edited November 5, 2017 by Wadda We Sing

[Clintosaurus 7,852]

20 hours ago, Demon77 said:

Barrier draw commencing shortly. Really liked the run of Marmelo in the Caulfield cup and looks better suited over 3200m.

I'm on the Marmelo bandwagon too. Hoping for a double figure price. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

9 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

I'm on the Marmelo bandwagon too. Hoping for a double figure price. 

$9 is the best I have seen so far, was hoping it would blow out a bit more after drawing 16. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,599]

How can one go past Tiberian .... every punter's dream:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/11/02/tiberian-the-worlds-most-unlikely-melbourne-cup-horse-came-from-caesar-the-teaser-pony_a_23265188/

"But Tiberius Caesar found a calling as a teaser. He teased diligently and he teased well. They even had a nickname for him at the Haras du Logis stud. They called him "Caesar the Teaser". And eventually, the staff took pity on him.

At the end of the breeding season, Caesar The Teaser was allowed to mate with the mare Toamasina. The result was Tiberian -- who has won six of his 17 races and will be ridden by top French jockey Olivier Peslier in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday."

Must say I enjoy listening to Kevin Bartlett and Doctor Turf on SEN for these big race days.  Great background while pottering in the garden. The TV coverage (other than the races themselves) leaves me increasingly bored.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

2 hours ago, Clintosaurus said:

I'm on the Marmelo bandwagon too. Hoping for a double figure price. 

 

2 hours ago, Demon77 said:

$9 is the best I have seen so far, was hoping it would blow out a bit more after drawing 16. 

WST Barman scratched, elevated temperature. Marmelo is now favourite at 8.50 on the TAB.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

32 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

How can one go past Tiberian .... every punter's dream:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/11/02/tiberian-the-worlds-most-unlikely-melbourne-cup-horse-came-from-caesar-the-teaser-pony_a_23265188/

"But Tiberius Caesar found a calling as a teaser. He teased diligently and he teased well. They even had a nickname for him at the Haras du Logis stud. They called him "Caesar the Teaser". And eventually, the staff took pity on him.

At the end of the breeding season, Caesar The Teaser was allowed to mate with the mare Toamasina. The result was Tiberian -- who has won six of his 17 races and will be ridden by top French jockey Olivier Peslier in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday."

Must say I enjoy listening to Kevin Bartlett and Doctor Turf on SEN for these big race days.  Great background while pottering in the garden. The TV coverage (other than the races themselves) leaves me increasingly bored.

This story was posted earlier in the thread, its a classic and ill be sure to have something on him. D Turf and KB have gone very well and yes are quite entertaining as well as informative. I wish Roy and HG would do a race day!

[Dee Zephyr 19,267]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

 

WST Barman scratched, elevated temperature. Marmelo is now favourite at 8.50 on the TAB.

There's always great debate about certain runners gaining starts in the great race and hard luck stories of horses missing out.

It wouldn't be difficult in this day and age to alter a few numbers in the system and allow emergencies to gain a start especially when there is a scratching two days out.

Will the VRC ever head down that path?

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

16 hours ago, Demon77 said:

There's always great debate about certain runners gaining starts in the great race and hard luck stories of horses missing out.

It wouldn't be difficult in this day and age to alter a few numbers in the system and allow emergencies to gain a start especially when there is a scratching two days out.

Will the VRC ever head down that path?

They have come out and said the TAB system cant handle anymore numbers........ha. Its nearly 50 years since man walked on the moon, but anyway.....

[Demon trucker 1,800]

On 03/11/2017 at 1:26 PM, Macca said:

Never bought into race horses although I've had a few opportunities to do so (part owner only!)

I do have a first cousin who was a high profile bookmaker though ... retired now.  We share the same way of thinking - percentage plays,  analysis,  probability factors etc. 

Bookies can do well unless they're not totally switched on.  As for us punters,  we need a good dose of luck just to break even.

Very few punters win betting only leads to losing all your money bookies are not a charity, they are there to make a living, no one makes money on gambling, you all ways lose in the long run, bookies are scrum and are all crooks, Waterhouse is the biggest crook ever  gay Waterhouse is a crook just like a husband and just like her son or Crooks, she should not be allowed to be a trainer married to Waterhouse.