AFL Round 6

[45HG 1,539]

Another intriguing round of footy awaits and, Melbourne's near-destruction of my love for the game notwithstanding, I am looking forward to it.

Some patterns for the year seem set, but some questions remain.

Collingwood v St Kilda

Pies' favour - they'll be smarting over their loss on ANZAC day where Pendlebury claimed the Magpies players cheated (my first thought was JW), their barrage of top quality mids who kick goals are difficult to contain, they're still 3-2 despite a dodgy start to the year and Luke Ball is close to returning.

Saints' favour - they man-up well against the Pies, they still have some top-name players who are playing pretty well.

Verdict - the Pies will be up and about after ANZAC day, the plucky Saints will be hard to shake but will lack the quality all around the field (how will they be when NDS, LM, SM and NR retire in the coming seasons?) and the Pies will be too dangerous going forward.

My tip - Pies by 23

Essendon v GWS

Bombers' favour - they're flying at 5-0, they're at home, they're playing one of the worst sides of all time.

Giants' favour - Essendon players may finally revolt against their club?

Verdict - this could be anything. Two seasons ago, Essendon put on 15 goals in a quarter against the Suns. This is a better Bombers side - and they looked angrier and hungrier. The Giants have set themselves for two winnable games in the last two weeks and, despite some good patches, have lost both by over 40 points.

My tip - Bombers by 123

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Roos' favour - they have to be the best 1-4 team ever, they have pushed some much better sides and have played at the ground before.

Port's favour - 5-0 for the first time in their history, have refused to give up under any circumstance this year and have a wealth of confident mids.

Verdict - Port are 5-0 and have been very good. That said, they've beaten some trash. They've rolled the bottom 3, given a mediocre Crows side a five goal lead and the West Coast Pretenders a 41 point head-start. To their credit, they came back to win - to their detriment, they were that far down. North have been up and about all year and will show that ladder position can stand for very little. They will be too good for Port, though Port's confidence should keep them in it.

My tip - North by 26

Adelaide v Hawthorn

Crows' favour - this game is being played at home, despite putting in a terrible half and losing their star player they pushed Carlton all the way, looked dangerous against the Hawks in the Prelim...Rioli's out?

Hawks' favour - they're probably the best team in the comp, they were terrible last week yet still beat a pretty quality side, they're amazing by foot and can cut teams open in the blink of an eye.

Verdict - this will be closer than some think. Adelaide haven't been great, but I think the loss of Walker will actually galvanise the group and make them play harder as a group. The Hawks got out of gaol and are still a terrific side, but I think they'll miss Rioli and I'm not sure some of their ball-movers will get the same space they've been given this year. I think they'll still get up - purely because they're a better team.

My tip - Hawthorn by 5

Richmond v Geelong

BANG!

Tigers' favour - they're playing good, team footy with a lot of contributors. In worse form they pushed the Cats all the way last year - at the Cattery, too! Jack can't be as bad as he was last week.

Cats' favour - they just win. They've got good experienced heads and talented youngsters coming through who play a roll. They sleep-walked through last week but won't let their guard down this week.

Verdict - Here we go, folks. We'll learn a bit here. Can the Tigers fight back from their disappointing showing against the Pies and narrow loss to the Dockers. As good as they've been, the Tigers could slip to 3-3 against a Geelong team who just know how to win.

My tip - Cats by 10

Gold Coast v Fremantle

Suns' favour - they were unlucky to lose to Freo up there last year, have good home form and can lift their win-loss record to an impressive 3-3. Dixon is in dangerous form.

Dockers' favour - they play as a strong unit and were impressive in getting the goods against the Tigers (despite the closeness of the result). They also have a quality tagger in Crowley who is, unfortunately, able to take Ablett out of the game (hopefully the umps are watching closely!)

Verdict - I've liked the Suns this year, they've played with intensity and a bit of flair. They're good out of the guts and can get it going up forward. Freo are an organised outfit with some quality mids but the loss of Fyfe will hurt.

My tip - Freo by 13

Sydney v Brisbane

Swans' favour - the 10 day break will be very handy, a plethora of quality mids will be too hot to handle and, like the Cats, they just know how to win.

Lions' favour - will have gained a bit of confidence from the win on Sunday and they'll welcome back the creative Hanley (possibly Black as well).

Verdict - the Swans are a machine and will be far too strong at home. They've dominated Brisbane in recent times and will continue to do so on their home deck (although, they have just been going so far this season). Brisbane have been terrible all year, and weren't impressive in the least last week.

My tip - Sydney by 53

Carlton v Melbourne

Blues' favour - had a training run on the G last week and a lesson in not taking the foot off the throat (too soon, anyway), a bunch of hard midfielders who use the footy well and a propensity to run forward of the ball when the going is good.

Dees' favour - this game will only go the standard 80 playing minutes.

Verdict - Melbourne are terrible. Possibly the worst I've seen in my time. Carlton are ok, but they are flat-track bullies and they will have a field day on Sunday. They're good at precisely the things we're terrible at and their weaknesses still outweigh our strengths. At least Setanta won't be playing.

My tip - Carlton by 77

West Coast

Eagles' favour - this game is at home and they bloody love their home, despite a terrible record this year. They may welcome back their talisman, NN. Surely they'll click at some stage?

Dogs' favour - they were plucky against the Cats, Liam Jones looks a likely type.

Verdict - tough one, in my opinion. Much of it rests on whether or not Nic Nat players. If he does, I put it as a 10 goal win. If not, I think about 4 goals. His drive out of the middle, confidence he gives the midfielders and, possibly most importantly, his ability to free up Cox is vitally important. The Dogs were decent against the Cats but have been very up and down this season.

My tip - Eagles by 42

Game of the Round

Cats Tigers/Roos Power

Thrashing of the Round

Bombers over GWS

Toughest to pick

Tigers Cats/Dockers Suns

Upset of the Round

Suns over the Dockers/Tigers over Cats/Crows over Hawks

Closest tip last week

Had the margin in the Tigers/Freo game - but tipped the wrong team! (2 points off) The closest correct tip was GC over GWS by 14 points. That's three weeks in a row the closest tip has involved GWS...

[praha 11,217]

I must admit: in Melbourne's own downfall, I have started watching more games, because I crave good football. I don't see it with Melbourne, and the last two years I've definitely watched more footy than ever, probably 5-6 games a week.

[titan_uranus 24,869]

It doesn't feel like as epic a round as we've been having recently. I don't know why, maybe just a few more interstate games or games that I don't view as particularly contentious or interesting.

Essendon-GWS, Adelaide-Hawthorn, Sydney-Brisbane and Carlton-Melbourne all stand to be blowouts, with the first and last the two which could be really messy. If West Coast can hit their stride, they can smack the Dogs too.

North-Port is in Hobart, which maybe doesn't give North much of an advantage, but I still rate the Roos, who would be 4-1 or 3-2 with an easier draw.

Geelong-Richmond is probably the game of the round.

[PJ_12345 1,098]

That awkward moment when youre the only person who voted that Melbourne will beat Carlton...

A guys got to dream!

Edited May 1, 2013 by PJ_12345