Jump to content

rpfc's Measurement of 2011

Featured Replies

Adelaide were thrashed in a Qualifying Final by a team you know quite well...

Old system.

New system, new rules.

Rules are as follows: If you want to win a flag, finish in the top 4.

That is all.

Don't know about that. Cinderella stories occur in sport. Stoke City just made the FA Cup final.

Maybe ... just maybe we're due one this year. A young team like Melbourne could really set the cat among the pidgeons on the G come September.

 
  • Author

Don't know about that. Cinderella stories occur in sport. Stoke City just made the FA Cup final.

Maybe ... just maybe we're due one this year. A young team like Melbourne could really set the cat among the pidgeons on the G come September.

Please tell me that this notion never enters your head when you judge the team's performance...

We are an ordinary team at the moment, and too many are getting ahead of themselves.

Further to the post above, I'd like to add that the two semi final wins that teams out of the top 4 have had (out of 22 matches) have been the Hawks rolling Port at their choking best by 3 points and the Pies tying with an injury-ravaged West Coast.

Obviously strange things happen in sport, but I think it's pretty clear that in modern footy team's don't really fluke premierships - and the ones that do are very good teams anyway.

 

Please tell me that this notion enters your head when you judge the team's performance...

We are an ordinary team at the moment, and too many are getting ahead of themselves.

"As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he" ...

We are capable of not being ordinary. We have showed it in glimpses. The talent is there. We all saw what can happen when this groups clicks into 4th gear ... v Sydney last year and twice against the eventual premier. Our best is breathtaking to watch.

Essendon and the Eagles have lifted this year through adopting, above all else, a new mindset. A confident, winning mindset.

We are capable of that. If you dont believe that then I question why?

  • Author

"As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he" ...

We are capable of not being ordinary. We have showed it in glimpses. The talent is there. We all saw what can happen when this groups clicks into 4th gear ... v Sydney last year and twice against the eventual premier. Our best is breathtaking to watch.

Essendon and the Eagles have lifted this year through adopting, above all else, a new mindset. A confident, winning mindset.

We are capable of that. If you dont believe that then I question why?

Yes, the talent is there. But the experience isn't.

I'm all for not giving players a 'ceiling' but I am a supporter and I want to be realistic.

We are not up there with Coll, Geel, Freo, StK, WB, Carl, and Haw.

Some of us asking for something outside of what this team can achieve.

Yes, we can improve, but they are going to have their days like the one against Hawthorn - especially with our mid-age players being NQR, and not where our talent is.


  • Author

And adopting 'a confident, winning mindset' is the difference between Essendon 2010 and 2011?

Please...

Yes, the talent is there. But the experience isn't.

I'm all for not giving players a 'ceiling' but I am a supporter and I want to be realistic.

We are not up there with Coll, Geel, Freo, StK, WB, Carl, and Haw.

Some of us asking for something outside of what this team can achieve.

Yes, we can improve, but they are going to have their days like the one against Hawthorn - especially with our mid-age players being NQR, and not where our talent is.

I understand your view. But I just can't enter a new season, attend games, without that silent wish entering my mind that maybe, just ... maybe ....

  • Author

I understand your view. But I just can't enter a new season, attend games, without that silent wish entering my mind that maybe, just ... maybe ....

Well, I understand your view as well.

But there is time when I hated going into a final (NM in 1998, Ess in 2000, Adel in 2002, Geel in 2005, and Freo in 2006) and knowing that we didn't have a chance.

That is why I want to do this rebuild properly, and I couldn't give a f... what happens in 2011, as long as we stay on that track and develop the players that are going to take us to the top 4 and give us a real chance of winning a flag.

 

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 5.5

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -3.8

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 0.5

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > +3

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 86.5

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 116.2

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 8

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9

With another year on a long journey to a flag I thought it necessary to have a thread that tracked the progress of the club toward that goal. The ladder and wins/losses are popular and legislatively important KPIs but in this season, where we are not a chance to win the flag, I thought it would be best to look at other KPIs that would be more relevant to our position in the league, and our improvement, or lack thereof, from 2010.

Contested Possession Differential - How we compete for contested ball against the opposition.

Inside 50 Differential - How often we can get the ball forward compared to the opposition.

Clearance Differential - How we are travelling at the stoppages compared to the opposition.

Scores against Average - Our defence has steadily pushed the scores against down, will the trend continue, stabilise, or become worse?

Percentage - Are we holding our own? Or are we getting blown out of the water on occasion?

Ave Flag Core Players - How many of our Flag Core © play each week? This stat is a measure of how many games we are getting into our young talent. Flag Core © at this stage consists of: Scully, Trengove, Watts, Morton, Grimes, Sylvia, Frawley, Garland, Jurrah, McKenzie, and Gysberts.

I am going to need help from someone with the AFL Prospectus or something to find out our Contested Possession differential, Inside 50 differential, and clearance differential from last season. I can guesstimate around -15 for CP, -10 for Inside 50s and -8 for clearances but would love hard figures.

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

Don't understand?

why aren't Jones, Jamar, Wonna, Tapscott, Pettard,, Martin, Moloney, Rivers, Davey in our Flag core? Potentially even Green if the years are 2013/2014/2015?

  • Author

Don't understand?

why aren't Jones, Jamar, Wonna, Tapscott, Pettard,, Martin, Moloney, Rivers, Davey in our Flag core? Potentially even Green if the years are 2013/2014/2015?

The understand doesn't require a question mark.

I didn't put in anyone older than 25 because careers are ending earlier and earlier and our window will not open until 2013 at the earliest.

And Flag Core © isn't ALL the players in the team - it is those that are most likely to make up the core of the team, hence the name...

Tapscott might make it, but he is a BP at the moment. Jamar is the one I grappled with as he could still be our number one ruck in 2013 but let's see how he travels this year and whether the sub-rule makes him more effective and fresher or out of sorts.

  • 3 weeks later...

  • Author

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 1.4

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -8.8

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > -0.8

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > +6

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 90.4

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 100.4

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 8.2

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9

Not good reading again...

A really, really good thread though.

And on a positive note: we have "improved" on all categories since the Hawthorn match!

Yeah you're right... Not much of a positive.

Good effort Rp. Need a few more weeks of data to enable meaningful comparative analysis on prior year/s. Bit too early at this point. Like to see it after round 11 and/or 12 if you're able too.

B)

  • Author

Good effort Rp. Need a few more weeks of data to enable meaningful comparative analysis on prior year/s. Bit too early at this point. Like to see it after round 11 and/or 12 if you're able too.

B)

I have nothing much better to do...

The most striking thing is that we have had two games out of 5 in which we have be blown out of the water in the key stats.

Inside 50s especially, and we are currently in a 'false currency' with the stats because we have played the two worst teams in the country. The efect of those two games will flatten out mid year and we will see some actual worth from this thread.

  • Author

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 5.2

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15; Adel: 24

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -2.2

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29; Adel: 31

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 1.7

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6; Adel: 14

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > 4.5

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19; Adel: -2

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 84.2

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106; Adel: 53

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 119.4

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 8.2

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9; Adel: 8

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

Really great effort.

Our forwards were maniacal - even Bate applied some great pressure and he turns like a freight train.

  • 2 weeks later...

  • Author

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 1.9

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15; Adel: 24; NM: -18

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -2.7

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29; Adel: 31; NM: -6

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 2.6

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6; Adel: 14; NM: +8

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > 4.5

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19; Adel: -2; NM: 0

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 89.9

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106; Adel: 53; NM: 124

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 109.1

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 7.7

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9; Adel: 8; NM: 6

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

Bit of a mixed bag.

Difficult to read still.

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 1.9

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15; Adel: 24; NM: -18

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -2.7

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29; Adel: 31; NM: -6

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 2.6

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6; Adel: 14; NM: +8

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > 4.5

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19; Adel: -2; NM: 0

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 89.9

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106; Adel: 53; NM: 124

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 109.1

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 7.7

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9; Adel: 8; NM: 6

With another year on a long journey to a flag I thought it necessary to have a thread that tracked the progress of the club toward that goal. The ladder and wins/losses are popular and legislatively important KPIs but in this season, where we are not a chance to win the flag, I thought it would be best to look at other KPIs that would be more relevant to our position in the league, and our improvement, or lack thereof, from 2010.

Contested Possession Differential - How we compete for contested ball against the opposition.

Inside 50 Differential - How often we can get the ball forward compared to the opposition.

Clearance Differential - How we are travelling at the stoppages compared to the opposition.

Scores against Average - Our defence has steadily pushed the scores against down, will the trend continue, stabilise, or become worse?

Percentage - Are we holding our own? Or are we getting blown out of the water on occasion?

Ave Flag Core Players - How many of our Flag Core © play each week? This stat is a measure of how many games we are getting into our young talent. Flag Core © at this stage consists of: Scully, Trengove, Watts, Morton, Grimes, Sylvia, Frawley, Garland, Jurrah, McKenzie, and Gysberts.

I am going to need help from someone with the AFL Prospectus or something to find out our Contested Possession differential, Inside 50 differential, and clearance differential from last season. I can guesstimate around -15 for CP, -10 for Inside 50s and -8 for clearances but would love hard figures.

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

Great stuff.

Discounting the draw, we've won the contested posession differential in every game we've won and lost it in every game we've lost. No surprises there really.

Yeah, you'd think they were somehow related.

Well, I understand your view as well.

But there is time when I hated going into a final (NM in 1998, Ess in 2000, Adel in 2002, Geel in 2005, and Freo in 2006) and knowing that we didn't have a chance.

That is why I want to do this rebuild properly, and I couldn't give a f... what happens in 2011, as long as we stay on that track and develop the players that are going to take us to the top 4 and give us a real chance of winning a flag.

Mate you are safe this year!


For those who don't follow Stats Incredible - Wins and Losses

In the case of the Demons, the difference between wins and losses has been stark so far this year. But there are several statistical indicators which certainly suggest things are looking up for the Demons.

One significant figure is the percentage of scores per inside 50. Melbourne ranks number one in the competition at scoring once inside 50, with a 53.7 per cent success rate.

In recent seasons this area has been a huge challenge for the side - in 2008 and 2009 the Demons were ranked 16th, while in 2010 they jumped to 10th.

There are several theories behind this significant jump - a more stable forward line this year, improved kicking efficiency going inside 50, an increase in centre clearances and the ability to cause better, more ‘pure’ turnovers further up the ground.

Whichever way you look at it, this is a definite sign of improvement.

I find that strange (not necessarily disputing it) but I understood that for the last few years we've been good at scoring once inside 50. Our problem was getting it in there in the first place.

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Author

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > -0.8

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15; Adel: 24; NM: -18; St K: 6; Carl: -26

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -4.4

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29; Adel: 31; NM: -6; St K: -6; Carl: -15

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 2.1

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6; Adel: 14; NM: +8; St K: 10; Carl: -9

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > 3.3

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19; Adel: -2; NM: 0; St K: 6; Carl: -3

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 92

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106; Adel: 53; NM: 124; St K: 106; Carl: 93

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 98.8

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 7.6

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9; Adel: 8; NM: 6; St K: 7; Carl: 7

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

The St Kilda game was pretty good stats wise, the Carl was less than great...

 

Tell you what the stat that counts is the winning margin and "did you win this game by more than you won the last one".

Football is evolving all the time and if you don't change with it you finish up as a perennial loser, what we do this year compared to last year means nothing unless we are winning more games than we are losing and are climbing the ladder. We can recruit a certain player or players to win the flag in 2015 then find when we get there the players we have recruited for our run at that years flag are no longer the types suited to the current trend of play. All this 5 year plan is plain [censored], you have to go for it every year and stop trying to justify our shithouseness with all these excuses and KPI crap.

If you are satisfied with incremental increases in performance then you'll be waiting longest than 5 years for our tilt at the flag.

KPI's and stats only tell you what you did do, often the biggest problem is what you didn't do.

  • Author

Tell you what the stat that counts is the winning margin and "did you win this game by more than you won the last one".

Football is evolving all the time and if you don't change with it you finish up as a perennial loser, what we do this year compared to last year means nothing unless we are winning more games than we are losing and are climbing the ladder. We can recruit a certain player or players to win the flag in 2015 then find when we get there the players we have recruited for our run at that years flag are no longer the types suited to the current trend of play. All this 5 year plan is plain [censored], you have to go for it every year and stop trying to justify our shithouseness with all these excuses and KPI crap.

If you are satisfied with incremental increases in performance then you'll be waiting longest than 5 years for our tilt at the flag.

KPI's and stats only tell you what you did do, often the biggest problem is what you didn't do.

That's a very simple way of looking at things.

Thank you for your input.


Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Featured Content

  • NON-MFC: Round 13

    Follow all the action from every Round 13 clash excluding the Dees as the 2025 AFL Premiership Season rolls on. With Melbourne playing in the final match of the round on King's Birthday, all eyes turn to the rest of the competition. Who are you tipping to win? And more importantly, which results best serve the Demons’ finals aspirations? Join the discussion and keep track of the matches that could shape the ladder and impact our run to September.

      • Thanks
    • 39 replies
  • PREVIEW: Collingwood

    Having convincingly defeated last year’s premier and decisively outplayed the runner-up with 8.2 in the final quarter, nothing epitomized the Melbourne Football Club’s performance more than its 1.12 final half, particularly the eight consecutive behinds in the last term, against a struggling St Kilda team in the midst of a dismal losing streak. Just when stability and consistency were anticipated within the Demon ranks, they delivered a quintessential performance marked by instability and ill-conceived decisions, with the most striking aspect being their inaccuracy in kicking for goal, which suggested a lack of preparation (instead of sleeping in their hotel in Alice, were they having a night on the turps) rather than a well-rested team. Let’s face it - this kicking disease that makes them look like raw amateurs is becoming a millstone around the team’s neck.

      • Thanks
    • 1 reply
  • CASEY: Sydney

    The Casey Demons were always expected to emerge victorious in their matchup against the lowly-ranked Sydney Swans at picturesque Tramway Oval, situated in the shadows of the SCG in Moore Park. They dominated the proceedings in the opening two and a half quarters of the game but had little to show for it. This was primarily due to their own sloppy errors in a low-standard game that produced a number of crowded mauls reminiscent of the rugby game popular in old Sydney Town. However, when the Swans tired, as teams often do when they turn games into ugly defensive contests, Casey lifted the standard of its own play and … it was off to the races. Not to nearby Randwick but to a different race with an objective of piling on goal after goal on the way to a mammoth victory. At the 25-minute mark of the third quarter, the Demons held a slender 14-point lead over the Swans, who are ahead on the ladder of only the previous week's opposition, the ailing Bullants. Forty minutes later, they had more than fully compensated for the sloppiness of their earlier play with a decisive 94-point victory, that culminated in a rousing finish which yielded thirteen unanswered goals. Kicks hit their targets, the ball found itself going through the middle and every player made a contribution.

      • Thanks
      • Like
    • 1 reply
  • REPORT: St. Kilda

    Hands up if you thought, like me, at half-time in yesterday’s game at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs that Melbourne’s disposal around the ground and, in particular, its kicking inaccuracy in front of the goals couldn’t get any worse. Well, it did. And what’s even more damning for the Melbourne Football Club is that the game against St Kilda and its resurgence from the bottomless pit of its miserable start to the season wasn’t just lost through poor conversion for goal but rather in the 15 minutes when the entire team went into a slumber and was mugged by the out-of-form Saints. Their six goals two behinds (one goal less than the Demons managed for the whole game) weaved a path of destruction from which they were unable to recover. Ross Lyon’s astute use of pressure to contain the situation once they had asserted their grip on the game, and Melbourne’s self-destructive wastefulness, assured that outcome. The old adage about the insanity of repeatedly doing something and expecting a different result, was out there. Two years ago, the score line in Melbourne’s loss to the Giants at this same ground was 5 goals 15 behinds - a ratio of one goal per four scoring shots - was perfectly replicated with yesterday’s 7 goals 21 behinds. 
    This has been going on for a while and opens up a number of questions. I’ll put forward a few that come to mind from this performance. The obvious first question is whether the club can find a suitable coach to instruct players on proper kicking techniques or is this a skill that can no longer be developed at this stage of the development of our playing group? Another concern is the team's ability to counter an opponent's dominance during a run on as exemplified by the Saints in the first quarter. Did the Demons underestimate their opponents, considering St Kilda's goals during this period were scored by relatively unknown forwards? Furthermore, given the modest attendance of 6,721 at TIO Traeger Park and the team's poor past performances at this venue, is it prudent to prioritize financial gain over potentially sacrificing valuable premiership points by relinquishing home ground advantage, notwithstanding the cultural significance of the team's connection to the Red Centre? 

      • Thanks
    • 4 replies
  • PREGAME: Collingwood

    After a disappointing loss in Alice Springs the Demons return to the MCG to take on the Magpies in the annual King's Birthday Big Freeze for MND game. Who comes in and who goes out?

      • Thanks
    • 250 replies
  • PODCAST: St. Kilda

    The Demonland Podcast will air LIVE on Monday, 2nd June @ 8:00pm. Join Binman, George & I as we have a chat with former Demon ruckman Jeff White about his YouTube channel First Use where he dissects ruck setups and contests. We'll then discuss the Dees disappointing loss to the Saints in Alice Springs.
    Your questions and comments are a huge part of our podcast so please post anything you want to ask or say below and we'll give you a shout out on the show.
    Listen LIVE: https://demonland.com/

      • Thanks
    • 47 replies