On 18/04/2011 at 12:49, rpfc said:

Adelaide were thrashed in a Qualifying Final by a team you know quite well...

Old system.

New system, new rules.

Rules are as follows: If you want to win a flag, finish in the top 4.

That is all.

Don't know about that. Cinderella stories occur in sport. Stoke City just made the FA Cup final.

Maybe ... just maybe we're due one this year. A young team like Melbourne could really set the cat among the pidgeons on the G come September.

  On 18/04/2011 at 12:52, Range Rover said:

Don't know about that. Cinderella stories occur in sport. Stoke City just made the FA Cup final.

Maybe ... just maybe we're due one this year. A young team like Melbourne could really set the cat among the pidgeons on the G come September.

Please tell me that this notion never enters your head when you judge the team's performance...

We are an ordinary team at the moment, and too many are getting ahead of themselves.

Further to the post above, I'd like to add that the two semi final wins that teams out of the top 4 have had (out of 22 matches) have been the Hawks rolling Port at their choking best by 3 points and the Pies tying with an injury-ravaged West Coast.

Obviously strange things happen in sport, but I think it's pretty clear that in modern footy team's don't really fluke premierships - and the ones that do are very good teams anyway.

  On 18/04/2011 at 12:53, rpfc said:

Please tell me that this notion enters your head when you judge the team's performance...

We are an ordinary team at the moment, and too many are getting ahead of themselves.

"As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he" ...

We are capable of not being ordinary. We have showed it in glimpses. The talent is there. We all saw what can happen when this groups clicks into 4th gear ... v Sydney last year and twice against the eventual premier. Our best is breathtaking to watch.

Essendon and the Eagles have lifted this year through adopting, above all else, a new mindset. A confident, winning mindset.

We are capable of that. If you dont believe that then I question why?

  On 18/04/2011 at 13:06, Range Rover said:

"As a man thinketh in his heart, so is he" ...

We are capable of not being ordinary. We have showed it in glimpses. The talent is there. We all saw what can happen when this groups clicks into 4th gear ... v Sydney last year and twice against the eventual premier. Our best is breathtaking to watch.

Essendon and the Eagles have lifted this year through adopting, above all else, a new mindset. A confident, winning mindset.

We are capable of that. If you dont believe that then I question why?

Yes, the talent is there. But the experience isn't.

I'm all for not giving players a 'ceiling' but I am a supporter and I want to be realistic.

We are not up there with Coll, Geel, Freo, StK, WB, Carl, and Haw.

Some of us asking for something outside of what this team can achieve.

Yes, we can improve, but they are going to have their days like the one against Hawthorn - especially with our mid-age players being NQR, and not where our talent is.

And adopting 'a confident, winning mindset' is the difference between Essendon 2010 and 2011?

Please...

  On 18/04/2011 at 13:13, rpfc said:

Yes, the talent is there. But the experience isn't.

I'm all for not giving players a 'ceiling' but I am a supporter and I want to be realistic.

We are not up there with Coll, Geel, Freo, StK, WB, Carl, and Haw.

Some of us asking for something outside of what this team can achieve.

Yes, we can improve, but they are going to have their days like the one against Hawthorn - especially with our mid-age players being NQR, and not where our talent is.

I understand your view. But I just can't enter a new season, attend games, without that silent wish entering my mind that maybe, just ... maybe ....

  On 18/04/2011 at 13:17, Range Rover said:

I understand your view. But I just can't enter a new season, attend games, without that silent wish entering my mind that maybe, just ... maybe ....

Well, I understand your view as well.

But there is time when I hated going into a final (NM in 1998, Ess in 2000, Adel in 2002, Geel in 2005, and Freo in 2006) and knowing that we didn't have a chance.

That is why I want to do this rebuild properly, and I couldn't give a f... what happens in 2011, as long as we stay on that track and develop the players that are going to take us to the top 4 and give us a real chance of winning a flag.

  On 29/03/2011 at 00:49, rpfc said:

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 5.5

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -3.8

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 0.5

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > +3

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 86.5

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 116.2

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 8

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9

With another year on a long journey to a flag I thought it necessary to have a thread that tracked the progress of the club toward that goal. The ladder and wins/losses are popular and legislatively important KPIs but in this season, where we are not a chance to win the flag, I thought it would be best to look at other KPIs that would be more relevant to our position in the league, and our improvement, or lack thereof, from 2010.

Contested Possession Differential - How we compete for contested ball against the opposition.

Inside 50 Differential - How often we can get the ball forward compared to the opposition.

Clearance Differential - How we are travelling at the stoppages compared to the opposition.

Scores against Average - Our defence has steadily pushed the scores against down, will the trend continue, stabilise, or become worse?

Percentage - Are we holding our own? Or are we getting blown out of the water on occasion?

Ave Flag Core Players - How many of our Flag Core © play each week? This stat is a measure of how many games we are getting into our young talent. Flag Core © at this stage consists of: Scully, Trengove, Watts, Morton, Grimes, Sylvia, Frawley, Garland, Jurrah, McKenzie, and Gysberts.

I am going to need help from someone with the AFL Prospectus or something to find out our Contested Possession differential, Inside 50 differential, and clearance differential from last season. I can guesstimate around -15 for CP, -10 for Inside 50s and -8 for clearances but would love hard figures.

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

Don't understand?

why aren't Jones, Jamar, Wonna, Tapscott, Pettard,, Martin, Moloney, Rivers, Davey in our Flag core? Potentially even Green if the years are 2013/2014/2015?

  On 18/04/2011 at 17:31, DeesPower said:

Don't understand?

why aren't Jones, Jamar, Wonna, Tapscott, Pettard,, Martin, Moloney, Rivers, Davey in our Flag core? Potentially even Green if the years are 2013/2014/2015?

The understand doesn't require a question mark.

I didn't put in anyone older than 25 because careers are ending earlier and earlier and our window will not open until 2013 at the earliest.

And Flag Core © isn't ALL the players in the team - it is those that are most likely to make up the core of the team, hence the name...

Tapscott might make it, but he is a BP at the moment. Jamar is the one I grappled with as he could still be our number one ruck in 2013 but let's see how he travels this year and whether the sub-rule makes him more effective and fresher or out of sorts.

  On 29/03/2011 at 00:49, rpfc said:

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 1.4

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -8.8

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > -0.8

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > +6

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 90.4

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 100.4

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 8.2

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9

Not good reading again...

A really, really good thread though.

And on a positive note: we have "improved" on all categories since the Hawthorn match!

Yeah you're right... Not much of a positive.

Good effort Rp. Need a few more weeks of data to enable meaningful comparative analysis on prior year/s. Bit too early at this point. Like to see it after round 11 and/or 12 if you're able too.

B)

  On 07/05/2011 at 01:15, Rusty Nails said:

Good effort Rp. Need a few more weeks of data to enable meaningful comparative analysis on prior year/s. Bit too early at this point. Like to see it after round 11 and/or 12 if you're able too.

B)

I have nothing much better to do...

The most striking thing is that we have had two games out of 5 in which we have be blown out of the water in the key stats.

Inside 50s especially, and we are currently in a 'false currency' with the stats because we have played the two worst teams in the country. The efect of those two games will flatten out mid year and we will see some actual worth from this thread.

  On 29/03/2011 at 00:49, rpfc said:

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 5.2

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15; Adel: 24

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -2.2

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29; Adel: 31

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 1.7

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6; Adel: 14

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > 4.5

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19; Adel: -2

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 84.2

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106; Adel: 53

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 119.4

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 8.2

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9; Adel: 8

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

Really great effort.

Our forwards were maniacal - even Bate applied some great pressure and he turns like a freight train.

  On 29/03/2011 at 00:49, rpfc said:

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 1.9

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15; Adel: 24; NM: -18

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -2.7

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29; Adel: 31; NM: -6

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 2.6

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6; Adel: 14; NM: +8

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > 4.5

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19; Adel: -2; NM: 0

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 89.9

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106; Adel: 53; NM: 124

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 109.1

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 7.7

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9; Adel: 8; NM: 6

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

Bit of a mixed bag.

Difficult to read still.

  On 29/03/2011 at 00:49, rpfc said:

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > 1.9

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15; Adel: 24; NM: -18

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -2.7

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29; Adel: 31; NM: -6

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 2.6

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6; Adel: 14; NM: +8

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > 4.5

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19; Adel: -2; NM: 0

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 89.9

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106; Adel: 53; NM: 124

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 109.1

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 7.7

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9; Adel: 8; NM: 6

With another year on a long journey to a flag I thought it necessary to have a thread that tracked the progress of the club toward that goal. The ladder and wins/losses are popular and legislatively important KPIs but in this season, where we are not a chance to win the flag, I thought it would be best to look at other KPIs that would be more relevant to our position in the league, and our improvement, or lack thereof, from 2010.

Contested Possession Differential - How we compete for contested ball against the opposition.

Inside 50 Differential - How often we can get the ball forward compared to the opposition.

Clearance Differential - How we are travelling at the stoppages compared to the opposition.

Scores against Average - Our defence has steadily pushed the scores against down, will the trend continue, stabilise, or become worse?

Percentage - Are we holding our own? Or are we getting blown out of the water on occasion?

Ave Flag Core Players - How many of our Flag Core © play each week? This stat is a measure of how many games we are getting into our young talent. Flag Core © at this stage consists of: Scully, Trengove, Watts, Morton, Grimes, Sylvia, Frawley, Garland, Jurrah, McKenzie, and Gysberts.

I am going to need help from someone with the AFL Prospectus or something to find out our Contested Possession differential, Inside 50 differential, and clearance differential from last season. I can guesstimate around -15 for CP, -10 for Inside 50s and -8 for clearances but would love hard figures.

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

Great stuff.

Discounting the draw, we've won the contested posession differential in every game we've won and lost it in every game we've lost. No surprises there really.

  On 17/05/2011 at 05:52, Nasher said:

Discounting the draw, we've won the contested posession differential in every game we've won and lost it in every game we've lost. No surprises there really.

Yeah, you'd think they were somehow related.

  On 18/04/2011 at 13:23, rpfc said:

Well, I understand your view as well.

But there is time when I hated going into a final (NM in 1998, Ess in 2000, Adel in 2002, Geel in 2005, and Freo in 2006) and knowing that we didn't have a chance.

That is why I want to do this rebuild properly, and I couldn't give a f... what happens in 2011, as long as we stay on that track and develop the players that are going to take us to the top 4 and give us a real chance of winning a flag.

Mate you are safe this year!

For those who don't follow Stats Incredible - Wins and Losses

  Quote

In the case of the Demons, the difference between wins and losses has been stark so far this year. But there are several statistical indicators which certainly suggest things are looking up for the Demons.

One significant figure is the percentage of scores per inside 50. Melbourne ranks number one in the competition at scoring once inside 50, with a 53.7 per cent success rate.

In recent seasons this area has been a huge challenge for the side - in 2008 and 2009 the Demons were ranked 16th, while in 2010 they jumped to 10th.

There are several theories behind this significant jump - a more stable forward line this year, improved kicking efficiency going inside 50, an increase in centre clearances and the ability to cause better, more ‘pure’ turnovers further up the ground.

Whichever way you look at it, this is a definite sign of improvement.

I find that strange (not necessarily disputing it) but I understood that for the last few years we've been good at scoring once inside 50. Our problem was getting it in there in the first place.

  On 29/03/2011 at 00:49, rpfc said:

KPI

Contested Possession Differential

2010 > -1.2

2011 > -0.8

Syd: +34; Haw: -31; BL: +4; GC: +15; WCE: -15; Adel: 24; NM: -18; St K: 6; Carl: -26

Inside 50 Differential

2010 > -7.2

2011 > -4.4

Syd: -4; Haw: -40; BL: +3; GC: +26; WCE: -29; Adel: 31; NM: -6; St K: -6; Carl: -15

Clearance Differential

2010 > -2

2011 > 2.1

Syd: -6; Haw: -10; BL: +11; GC: +7; WCE: -6; Adel: 14; NM: +8; St K: 10; Carl: -9

Turnover (Clanger) Differential

2010 >

2011 > 3.3

Syd: +3; Haw: +4; BL: +4; GC: -1; WCE:19; Adel: -2; NM: 0; St K: 6; Carl: -3

Scores Against average

2010 > 89.6

2011 > 92

Syd: 84; Haw: 122; BL: 71; GC: 69; WCE: 106; Adel: 53; NM: 124; St K: 106; Carl: 93

Percentage

2010 > 94.5

2011 > 98.8

Average Flag Core © players per game

2010 > 7.4

2011 > 7.6

Syd: 6; Haw: 7; BL: 9; GC: 9; WCE: 9; Adel: 8; NM: 6; St K: 7; Carl: 7

Green KPIs means that we are maintaining or improving in that area, red will indicate any slippage.

The St Kilda game was pretty good stats wise, the Carl was less than great...

Tell you what the stat that counts is the winning margin and "did you win this game by more than you won the last one".

Football is evolving all the time and if you don't change with it you finish up as a perennial loser, what we do this year compared to last year means nothing unless we are winning more games than we are losing and are climbing the ladder. We can recruit a certain player or players to win the flag in 2015 then find when we get there the players we have recruited for our run at that years flag are no longer the types suited to the current trend of play. All this 5 year plan is plain [censored], you have to go for it every year and stop trying to justify our shithouseness with all these excuses and KPI crap.

If you are satisfied with incremental increases in performance then you'll be waiting longest than 5 years for our tilt at the flag.

KPI's and stats only tell you what you did do, often the biggest problem is what you didn't do.

  On 31/05/2011 at 10:17, RobbieF said:

Tell you what the stat that counts is the winning margin and "did you win this game by more than you won the last one".

Football is evolving all the time and if you don't change with it you finish up as a perennial loser, what we do this year compared to last year means nothing unless we are winning more games than we are losing and are climbing the ladder. We can recruit a certain player or players to win the flag in 2015 then find when we get there the players we have recruited for our run at that years flag are no longer the types suited to the current trend of play. All this 5 year plan is plain [censored], you have to go for it every year and stop trying to justify our shithouseness with all these excuses and KPI crap.

If you are satisfied with incremental increases in performance then you'll be waiting longest than 5 years for our tilt at the flag.

KPI's and stats only tell you what you did do, often the biggest problem is what you didn't do.

That's a very simple way of looking at things.

Thank you for your input.