At the end of the day, this is what it comes down too...

He can stay and build a dynasty with his fellow young up and comers or he can go to western Sydney where no one talks or likes football and suffer in that hell hole.

If he stays great.....if he goes, don't let the door hit ya where my boot should of kicked ya.....

If he goes it might set us back a little, but its not that big a blip on our radar....

I always go by the saying..NO ONE IS BIGGER THAN THE CLUB....if u want to play for us...stay if not...then go and get ready for beamer to knock your block off when u face us....

Yeah, except that:

1- the girl is Miranda Kerr,

2- she hasn't said that she's breaking up with you, nor has she given any indication of it,

3- she's already committed to having sex with you for the rest of the season,

4- she's given no indication that she won't continue to have sex with you for the rest of your life,

5- your next girlfriend is unlikely to be Miranda Kerr, and

6- it's Miranda Kerr.

So you'd break up with Miranda Kerr just because you got paranoid and confronted her about accusing her of cheating on you without any evidence, simply because some jealous guy from West Sydney started a rumour that she's cheating on you.

So I assume that you're real name isn't Orlando Bloom.

Best post of the thread Bob by a mile. There werent too many in the running though.

Unless he signs for us in the next few weeks, then a horrible situation becomes a positive story about a player being loyal.

NICE AVATAR

Does anyone think this might hurt our membership aspirations?

I think it will unless his management can convince us it is a genuine delay and has not signed.

We waited years to get this current crop of youngsters and if a gun youngster like Scully can just walk out, then some confidence in the club will have to be lost. Especialy when we would be in a position to throw serious money at him.

I don't understand these pessimistic conclusions.

Aren't you people able to put yourself in the kid's shoes?

What would you do?

I know I'd wait. Even if I'd decided on GWS, I'd give MFC til the end of the season to convince me otherwise, and vice versa.

Why would he feel he needs to rush the decision?

Wouldnt want to end up like Ablett reportedly was last year - already signed up to GC, but having second thoughts...

I think it will unless his management can convince us it is a genuine delay and has not signed.

We waited years to get this current crop of youngsters and if a gun youngster like Scully can just walk out, then some confidence in the club will have to be lost. Especialy when we would be in a position to throw serious money at him.

we can't match them though, that is not our fault it is the AFL's

If he goes it might set us back a little, but its not that big a blip on our radar....

If only that were the case. Losing a 10-12 year champion for nothing would be both a major setback and the radar equivalent of an incoming tomahawk missile.

Don't know the answer to that question Demon_Fanatic. Others on here seem to know more about that.

For me nothing short of another no.1 draft pick would suffice.

I think we'd get something around the pick 10 mark.

Age, draft number and current ability are all factored into determining compensation but the AFL are keen not to give anything too high away so as not to "strip" the new franchise of a great draft pick to help them along (which is ludicrous seeing as Scully is a proven no. 1 pick anyhow!!).

The formula is a secret.

No surprises there, because it would very hard to create one that was fair and the criticism would be incredible.

Exactly. They take into account what pick you went within 5 years of 2011 and how much GWS will be paying for Tom. So pick 1 only 2 years ago and 1mil+ from GWS.

That should be a Gablett like compensation. A pick after our first round pick and a future pick 10.

Last I remember there were changes in regard to B&F and its impact in the formula given it was open to club manipulation and or other factors and a greater importance placed on what GC/GWS is offering as that is a better indication of his market value...

Not sure though...

is it true we definately get compensation if he leaves.. and if so how much????

Re compensation - just posted this over at BigFooty and dare say a few in this thread may be interested...

Upon review of the League's original compensation scheme in June last year, the List Development Group came out with the following key recommendations (which were approved by the AFL):

1. The player’s age and the new contract offer to a player from the expansion club would be the key criteria used to determine the compensation for his original club;

2. Greater compensation for the loss of a ‘top echelon’ player;

3. Establishment of a committee to examine each compensation selection to ensure it did not produce a materially anomalous result.

Player compensation statement

Scully will be 20 at the end of this season. As a second year player who was a first-round pick and played more than 16 games in his first season, his base contract for 2011 will be $77,700 (plus $4,200 match payments).

If he plays all 22 games this year, the maximum he can earn in 2011 will be $170,100 (plus a bonus for finishing top 10 in the club Best & Fairest).

AFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, 2007-2011

If, as claimed, Scully has already signed with GWS, then the Dees wouldn't even have a chance to put to him a new contract offer (which would ordinarily be taken into consideration against GWS' offer when determining the compensation criteria for losing a player). Therefore, any compensation from the AFL would have to be based on the $170,100 (plus B&F bonus) he would earn in 2011...

Going on the rumored 6 year, $6 million offer from GWS, in 2012 they would be paying him approximately 5 times the amount he earned the previous year as a 20 year old.

If, as Eddie claims, the GWS look at front-loading to as much as $3 million in the first year, that would be approximately 15 times what he earned in 2011 with the Dees...

The head of the Working Group, Andrew Dillon stated:

It was the Working Group’s view that the new contract offer by an expansion club would provide a better reflection of a player’s worth, relative to other players...

Taking his age and new contract offer from GWS into consideration, it is hard to see how Melbourne wouldn't receive at least the same compensation as Geelong did for Ablett, even if at this stage of his career Scully wouldn't be considered as a 'top echelon' player.

It would also be interesting to see whether the compensation committee considered a club losing a 20 year old player drafted first overall (as a Priority Pick) to be 'anomalous'. According to Dillon:

If there was a situation where the compensation formula provided an anomalous result, it was agreed there should be a safeguard system in place where the compensation can be reviewed.

That being the case, perhaps the Dees would receive compensation which would be more commeasurable to the type of player they have just lost, such as a number one overall pick??

Who knows whether the AFL will follow through and actually enforce what they have said but going by that you would think we should at least receive compensation similar to what Geelong received for Ablett if Scully does decide to leave... Possibly more if they were serious about treating 'materially anomalous' situations accordingly.

I don't understand these pessimistic conclusions.

Aren't you people able to put yourself in the kid's shoes?

What would you do?

I know I'd wait. Even if I'd decided on GWS, I'd give MFC til the end of the season to convince me otherwise, and vice versa.

Why would he feel he needs to rush the decision?

Wouldnt want to end up like Ablett reportedly was last year - already signed up to GC, but having second thoughts...

This is a valid point, he is also only 19 and I am sure the last thing he wants it all this talk and speculation to continue for an entire year. Surely he would to bury the rumours and put it out there. On the flip side, if he has signed with GWS, he is not going to come out an say it. In order to determine the truth, it is often good to eliminate the impossible. In this case, the idea that he signed with Melbourne is impossible, as we know this is not the case. The idea that has signed with GWS is possible, as this speculation would suggest. It is also possible that he has not signed with GWS, and will wait until the seasons end to make a decision. Thus, the best case for Melbourne supporters at the moment is that he is going to wait until the end of the season.

Thanks HM, thats interesting and informative. Thus rating well above 99% of posts in this thread, yet behind Miranda Kerr (solid work Axis).

...

Obviously I'm biased but I think we should receive more than Ablett.

We haven't even had the chance to let Scully win a Brownlow or a premiership for us yet.

He has only just begun performing. He has his whole career ahead of him, not the final 3rd.

Scully right now is a more valuable piece for building a team, than Ablett or Dane Swan.

I firmly believe this.

Obviously I'm biased but I think we should receive more than Ablett.

We haven't even had the chance to let Scully win a Brownlow or a premiership for us yet.

He has only just begun performing. He has his whole career ahead of him, not the final 3rd.

Scully right now is a more valuable piece for building a team, than Ablett or Dane Swan.

I firmly believe this.

totally agree

Obviously I'm biased but I think we should receive more than Ablett.

We haven't even had the chance to let Scully win a Brownlow or a premiership for us yet.

He has only just begun performing. He has his whole career ahead of him, not the final 3rd.

Scully right now is a more valuable piece for building a team, than Ablett or Dane Swan.

I firmly believe this.

cant argue with that. Ill take Sculls in 2-3 years over Ablett or Swan in 2-3 years.

Have a think about this:

If GWS had signed him, do you think Sheedy would talk about it? Do you think there would be so many 'destabilising' leaks?

They are trying to make us react, and react poorly, and some of you are falling for this nonsense.

If there is around 30,000-40,000 members, plus supporters who do not have a membership...let us say 100,000 which is probably conservative. If 100,000 people pledge $25 to keep Scully, this equates to 2.5 million dollars, or 500,000 extra per year for five years to stay on top of what the club offers. Very possible but how to 'pay' him without the AFL stepping in. Could start a precedent where clubs ask supporters to help keep players...I think I am going a bit insane this morning but there is merit here...I for one am prepared to give $25

This is a valid point, he is also only 19 and I am sure the last thing he wants it all this talk and speculation to continue for an entire year. Surely he would to bury the rumours and put it out there. On the flip side, if he has signed with GWS, he is not going to come out an say it. In order to determine the truth, it is often good to eliminate the impossible. In this case, the idea that he signed with Melbourne is impossible, as we know this is not the case. The idea that has signed with GWS is possible, as this speculation would suggest. It is also possible that he has not signed with GWS, and will wait until the seasons end to make a decision. Thus, the best case for Melbourne supporters at the moment is that he is going to wait until the end of the season.

Yes, that is best case.

And it also works in our favour.

As it becomes unbearable, the only way to end the speculation is to sign with MFC.

Any signing with GWS can't be announced until after the season, or his season WILL be spent on the bench in the Casey 2s.

If there is around 30,000-40,000 members, plus supporters who do not have a membership...let us say 100,000 which is probably conservative. If 100,000 people pledge $25 to keep Scully, this equates to 2.5 million dollars, or 500,000 extra per year for five years to stay on top of what the club offers. Very possible but how to 'pay' him without the AFL stepping in. Could start a precedent where clubs ask supporters to help keep players...I think I am going a bit insane this morning but there is merit here...I for one am prepared to give $25

That is crazy.

Also, it's afternoon.

Have a think about this:

If GWS had signed him, do you think Sheedy would talk about it? Do you think there would be so many 'destabilising' leaks?

They are trying to make us react, and react poorly, and some of you are falling for this nonsense.

Exactly, I said the same thing in one of my 600 posts earlier today.

They'd just sit back content that he was already on the books.

That is crazy.

Also, it's afternoon.

You assume I live in your timezone.

You assume I live in your timezone.

I don't.

I don't even assume you live in my plane of existence.

You are a metaphysical anomaly.

Didn't really mean that - I just feel strange this night.

Thought I would be lighthearted, alter the mood.

Scully may be left out of NAB squad with "Knee Soreness". Maybe the club does know and are doing what has been mentioned above.....

Does the fact that Scully originally declined a three year contract have any weight here? To me, this reads as if he did so in order to field offers after the standard two year contract. If this is the case, I'd say there is more evidence that he will jump ship. It could also mean that he knew he would perform well and thus could demand more money from Melbourne, which is fair.

stranga, where did you read that. Herald Sun just posted final sqauds and he was named.

Does the fact that Scully originally declined a three year contract have any weight here? To me, this reads as if he did so in order to field offers after the standard two year contract. If this is the case, I'd say there is more evidence that he will jump ship. It could also mean that he knew he would perform well and thus could demand more money from Melbourne, which is fair.

stranga, where did you read that. Herald Sun just posted final sqauds and he was named.

MFC website link on Twitter says hes been named but may be left out due to knee soreness.

Scully may be left out of NAB squad with "Knee Soreness". Maybe the club does know and are doing what has been mentioned above.....

Scully might be left out due to knee soreness? [censored], he's definitely signed. Let's organise a mass suicide now.