CONCENTRIC CIRCLES by The Oracle

When Melbourne played off against St. Kilda in its final home and away game of the season last year, I noted that the game represented the closing of a three year circle from the beginning of 2007 to the end of 2009. Of course, it was something of a vicious circle which took the club from a disappointing and disastrous season opener at the MCG against the Saints on a mild autumn evening three years ago to an early spring appointment closing off the 2009 roster against the same club. The period in between told a tale of heartbreak and woe.

Another season rolled along and, in its early stages, things looked good. Five games in and they were absolutely rosy with three wins to their credit and a near miss behind them. Eight rounds later and the team has only managed to add another 50% of that tally, its percentage is travelling south and the team's performance is inconsistent and spasmodic.

And if all that wasn't bad enough, Melbourne is slotted to confront St. Kilda for the first time since they closed the books on 2009 and the Saints are running as hot as the Demons are running cold. It's a case of one of the combatants coming off a win against the top team in the competition and the other has just been thrashed by a team that was languishing perilously near the bottom.

And that's not all - this week's game is at Etihad Stadium, a place from which Melbourne has emerged victorious on only one of its last dozen visits - and that was back in 2007 when it shocked an injury hit Western Bulldogs in a Saturday night game. As it turned out, that victory cost the club a priority draft pick that year as well as the chance to select Nick Naitanui, Stephen Hill or Daniel Rich the following year. But I digress. 

The fact is that suddenly, things are looking grim for the beleaguered Demons and some pundits are even suggesting that they might well finish the season with a third consecutive wooden spoon if things don't improve soon.

Why am I getting the feeling that the circle is getting bigger?

THE GAME

St. Kilda v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium, Sunday 4 July 2010 at 4.40 pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall St. Kilda 81 wins Melbourne 118 wins 1 drawn

Etihad Stadium St. Kilda 2 Melbourne 3 wins

Since 2000 St. Kilda 6 wins Melbourne 9 wins

The Coaches Lyon 3 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 (live at 4.30pm)

RADIO ABC 774 SEN TripleM 3AW

THE BETTING St. Kilda to win $1.13 Melbourne to win $6.05

THE LAST TIME THEY MET St. Kilda 17.12.114 defeated Melbourne 10.7.67 Round 22, 2009 at the MCG

For the second time in the space of the season Melbourne took it right up to St. Kilda in the first half and was still in with an outside chance ten minutes into the final term before the Saints powered away to win comfortably. Nick Riewoldt finished with six goals for St. Kilda after a slow start and Liam Jurrah was exciting with four goals. Injury has kept him out of the Demons' team ever since.

THE TEAMS

ST. KILDA

Backs Brett Peake Jason Blake Sam Gilbert

Half backs Jarryn Geary Sam Fisher James Gwilt

Centreline Brendon Goddard Nick Dal Santo Farren Ray 

Half forwards Clinton Jones Justin Koschitzke Adam Schneider

Forwards Andrew McQualter Ben McEvoy Stephen Milne 

Followers Michael Gardiner Lenny Hayes Leigh Montagna

Interchange Sean Dempster Adam Pattison Rhys Stanley Jack Steven

Emergencies Zac Dawson Jason Gram Nick Heyne

In Adam Pattison 

Out   Steven Baker (suspended)

MELBOURNE

Backs Clint Bartram James Frawley Kyle Cheney 

Half backs Colin Garland Jared Rivers Jack Grimes 

Centreline Brad Green Jack Trengove Cameron Bruce 

Half forwards Jamie Bennell Matthew Bate Lynden Dunn 

Forwards Neville Jetta Jack Watts Aaron Davey 

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Nathan Jones

Interchange Joel Macdonald Jordie McKenzie Tom Scully Jake Spencer

Emergencies Addam Maric Brad Miller Matthew Warnock  

In Jamie Bennell Kyle Cheney Jake Spencer

Out Brad Miller Cale Morton Matthew Warnock

I'D LIKE TO SEE THAT!

There's one thing that virtually is the greatest living certainty  on this planet. As much as I would love to see it happen, it's extremely unlikely that Melbourne will be leading by 20 points or so at the ten minute mark of the game. In fact, based on the precedent of what has transpired in the early moments of the majority of games this season, the Saints are likely to have the game pretty much in the bag by that stage of the game. After all, they've weathered the loss of their captain and champion player, numerous off-field sex scandals and the fact that their coach waddles around looking like a poonce and have still managed to hold on to a top two spot on the ladder. Taking on the Demons who barely managed to raise a pulse last weekend will seem no more than child's play in comparison to what they've had to go through so far this year.

Melbourne's coach Dean Bailey has acknowledged almost on a weekly basis that his team's poor starts have to be addressed but every week, we see groundhog day re-enacted. Now he says that he will make some "minor tweaks" to the team's pre-match preparation in a bid to arrest the recent trend of slow starts to games.

Bailey and his co-selectors have swung the axe with the omissions of  Brad Miller, Cale Morton and Matthew Warnock who all played a part in the team's feted draw against the Magpies just two games back. They are replaced by a trio of players in Jamie Bennell, Kyle Cheney and Jake Spencer who were part of a Casey team that was thrashed by around 20 goals at their last start, so the team selection hardly seem to inspire although Cheney has been good all year in the VFL. The return of Spencer will at least see some of the team's six footers heave a sigh of relief knowing that they won't have to mix it in the ruck with players out of their height range.

However, I doubt that this sort of tinkering will help the club survive the first ten minutes which is the main focus of my match preview. I'm not worried about the rest of the game which should see the team through its predictable course. A bland second quarter, a noble fightback in the third and some early hope in the final quarter before they get totally smashed.

No. For me, the importance of this game is what happens in the first ten minutes. I was interested therefore, to read the words of Bailey who told reporters:

  

"We looked at a couple of main things in the warm-up. We'll probably trial some of that again."

The mystery behind that statement has me completely intrigued. Is there a secret weapon in the armoury that Bails is about to unleash on the unsuspecting public and the St. Kilda team in particular that will see Melbourne streak to an unassailable lead in the early stages of the game at Etihad?

I'd like to see that but I'm not holding my breath.

St. Kilda by 68 points.

Article

MELBOURNE coach Dean Bailey says he will make some minor tweaks to the team's pre-match preparation in a bid to arrest the recent trend of slow starts to games.

The Demons meet St Kilda on Sunday, and Bailey said his side's poor starts had to be addressed.

"We looked at a couple of main things in the warm-up. We'll probably trial some of that again," Bailey said on Friday.

"We don't want to change all of it, just throw it all out and start again. That's the wrong message to send. We'll keep working at it, but we don't want it to be a massive thing."

"great learning curve"

I.E. smashing.

Read Bailey interview about remedying slow starts And I think I have the solution. In the warm up for the Brissie game I noticed Moloney in the cue behind McDonald giving his captain a series of hearty whacks to his arse... true. Both players started well...

I guess a point I was making is that the performance of competitive sports people is derived from attaining the optimal balance between arousal (intent) and clarity (decision making). Slow starts, playing better against higher ranked teams and worse against lower ranked teams seems to be the result of a young team not knowing how manage their own balance. Instead their balance is derived from events out of their control, i.e. the opposition, the ground, 1st quarters, teammates sparking them, etc... Good players are able to internally generate and find this optimal balance between arousal and clarity, get into the zone and stay in it for longer...

I don't know how you train young player to find and maintain this balance but I imagine it is something Bailey and Co are working on. Top level tennis players hone this skill and demonstrate that the ratio of arousal:clarity differs with different personality types i.e Hewitt (high arousal = best tennis) vs Federa (moderate arousal = best tennis).

Its an interesting area (arousal:clarity) as the point of niggling a player (i.e. Baker, etc...) is to "over" arouse the player, making it harder for him to think straight. Moloney and Davie (Hall, Judd and Stevie J) struggle when they are targeted in this way.

That said, I don't think Baileys mid week musings have any effect on the players hitting the 1st quarter in the "Zone", rather they are pointing to a team that is struggling to believe that they can win and is starting to get demoralised. The signs of this is the encouragement and support for each other dries up as played stop focusing on supporting their team mates and focus on them selves...

Bailey's future status as either a genius or a dill will be decided by the extent to which the MFC list can take responsibility for maximising their (and their team mates) time in the zone (optimal arousal:clarity). The Moloney/McDonald example above highlights crudely how the senior group is responsible for this.

Cam Bruce talking before the game should be banned. Geez, I can't wait for the Bruce lovers to come at me over that one. :S

Read Bailey interview about remedying slow starts And I think I have the solution. In the warm up for the Brissie game I noticed Moloney in the cue behind McDonald giving his captain a series of hearty whacks to his arse... true. Both players started well...

I guess a point I was making is that the performance of competitive sports people is derived from attaining the optimal balance between arousal (intent) and clarity (decision making). Slow starts, playing better against higher ranked teams and worse against lower ranked teams seems to be the result of a young team not knowing how manage their own balance. Instead their balance is derived from events out of their control, i.e. the opposition, the ground, 1st quarters, teammates sparking them, etc... Good players are able to internally generate and find this optimal balance between arousal and clarity, get into the zone and stay in it for longer...

I don't know how you train young player to find and maintain this balance but I imagine it is something Bailey and Co are working on. Top level tennis players hone this skill and demonstrate that the ratio of arousal:clarity differs with different personality types i.e Hewitt (high arousal = best tennis) vs Federa (moderate arousal = best tennis).

Its an interesting area (arousal:clarity) as the point of niggling a player (i.e. Baker, etc...) is to "over" arouse the player, making it harder for him to think straight. Moloney and Davie (Hall, Judd and Stevie J) struggle when they are targeted in this way.

That said, I don't think Baileys mid week musings have any effect on the players hitting the 1st quarter in the "Zone", rather they are pointing to a team that is struggling to believe that they can win and is starting to get demoralised. The signs of this is the encouragement and support for each other dries up as played stop focusing on supporting their team mates and focus on them selves...

Bailey's future status as either a genius or a dill will be decided by the extent to which the MFC list can take responsibility for maximising their (and their team mates) time in the zone (optimal arousal:clarity). The Moloney/McDonald example above highlights crudely how the senior group is responsible for this.

Well said.

So he's identified the problem and says we need it to stop.

This isn't the first time that's happened. In fact I'm sure he's been quoted at some point on this in each of the last 4 weeks.

Nothing matters until we actually play a decent opening 10 minutes and quarter.

So he's identified the problem and says we need it to stop.

This isn't the first time that's happened. In fact I'm sure he's been quoted at some point on this in each of the last 4 weeks.

Nothing matters until we actually play a decent opening 10 minutes and quarter.

you're right. I'm sure he stated this before. the facts are there for anyone to see if they are wondering if slow starts have any correlation with losses.

perhaps a few 6am mornings having to jump off a pier into Port Philllip Bay in the middle of winter would have that desired effect of refreshing themselves for better starts. they did it last year and seem to put in better performances.

Perhaps something different and far more effective before they walk out of the rooms, Or something whilst the captain is tossing the coin.

Rather than just tweaking the warm up.

rectifying slow starts and being more competitive over 4 quarters would help!

How about the boys look each other in the eye and commit to getting the ball, applying absolute pressure and no easy kicks for the opposition.

If that doesn't work then the first player not to go hard when it is their turn has to write on the blackboard " I didn't go hard" a 100 times!

Its at Etihad , late arvo on a Sunday.. No chance in hell.

Strangely..we dont do too bad against the Sainters, but I feel this might be all over in 15 mins....sigh...yet again !!

Read Bailey interview about remedying slow starts And I think I have the solution. In the warm up for the Brissie game I noticed Moloney in the cue behind McDonald giving his captain a series of hearty whacks to his arse... true. Both players started well...

I guess a point I was making is that the performance of competitive sports people is derived from attaining the optimal balance between arousal (intent) and clarity (decision making). Slow starts, playing better against higher ranked teams and worse against lower ranked teams seems to be the result of a young team not knowing how manage their own balance. Instead their balance is derived from events out of their control, i.e. the opposition, the ground, 1st quarters, teammates sparking them, etc... Good players are able to internally generate and find this optimal balance between arousal and clarity, get into the zone and stay in it for longer...

I don't know how you train young player to find and maintain this balance but I imagine it is something Bailey and Co are working on. Top level tennis players hone this skill and demonstrate that the ratio of arousal:clarity differs with different personality types i.e Hewitt (high arousal = best tennis) vs Federa (moderate arousal = best tennis).

Its an interesting area (arousal:clarity) as the point of niggling a player (i.e. Baker, etc...) is to "over" arouse the player, making it harder for him to think straight. Moloney and Davie (Hall, Judd and Stevie J) struggle when they are targeted in this way.

That said, I don't think Baileys mid week musings have any effect on the players hitting the 1st quarter in the "Zone", rather they are pointing to a team that is struggling to believe that they can win and is starting to get demoralised. The signs of this is the encouragement and support for each other dries up as played stop focusing on supporting their team mates and focus on them selves...

Bailey's future status as either a genius or a dill will be decided by the extent to which the MFC list can take responsibility for maximising their (and their team mates) time in the zone (optimal arousal:clarity). The Moloney/McDonald example above highlights crudely how the senior group is responsible for this.

Well said and written.

I commonly have problems between arousal and clarity...................

THE TEAMS

ST. KILDA

Backs Brett Peake Jason Blake Sam Gilbert

Half backs Jarryn Geary Sam Fisher James Gwilt

Centreline Brendon Goddard Nick Dal Santo Farren Ray 

Half forwards Clinton Jones Justin Koschitzke Adam Schneider

Forwards Andrew McQualter Ben McEvoy Stephen Milne 

Followers Michael Gardiner Lenny Hayes Leigh Montagna

Interchange Sean Dempster Adam Pattison Rhys Stanley Jack Steven

Emergencies Zac Dawson Jason Gram Nick Heyne

In Adam Pattison 

Out   Steven Baker (suspended)

MELBOURNE

Backs Clint Bartram James Frawley Kyle Cheney 

Half backs Colin Garland Jared Rivers Jack Grimes 

Centreline Brad Green Jack Trengove Cameron Bruce 

Half forwards Jamie Bennell Matthew Bate Lynden Dunn 

Forwards Neville Jetta Jack Watts Aaron Davey 

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Nathan Jones

Interchange Joel Macdonald Jordie McKenzie Tom Scully Jake Spencer

Emergencies Addam Maric Brad Miller Matthew Warnock  

In Jamie Bennell Kyle Cheney Jake Spencer

Out Brad Miller Cale Morton Matthew Warnock

I think your predicted margin is a little harsh. Looking at these two teams I see a game dominated by the backlines. The Saints are going to be relying on their small forwards and attacking mids to get goals, and we are probably in the same boat. It's hard to see either side kicking a massive score with these teams. COuld be that the winning team won't even reach 68.