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Favourites again

Eth
in Melbourne Demons

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Posted

I was reading an article I got off this site and noticed Melbourne's odds are at $1.80 to win this week - North are $1.95. I think these odds should flip, because North have been inconsistent but their good showings against West Coast and Hawthorn (although they are not great teams) and their recent dominance over us should see them favourites IMO. And it is at Etihad Stadium.

So, what are your thoughts?

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    Got the feeling these odd will stay much the same, maybe they will enter the game even money. Worth a go I'd reckon, I'll keep the faith!

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    • Author

    Got the feeling these odd will stay much the same, maybe they will enter the game even money. Worth a go I'd reckon, I'll keep the faith!

    True, from a positive point of view these are great odds.

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    We are not favorites at Etihad Stadium-That is a fact.

    We gotta earn that one-The Punters are pushing their luck if they think otherwise

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    • Author

    We are not favorites at Etihad Stadium-That is a fact.

    We gotta earn that one-The Punters are pushing their luck if they think otherwise

    Clicky here

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    Just proves my theory that these online betting agencies are run and used by cowboys.

    We havent won a game away from the MCG for 3 years!!!! How can we be the Favorite-Its absurd.

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    Just proves my theory that these online betting agencies are run and used by cowboys.

    We havent won a game away from the MCG for 3 years!!!! How can we be the Favorite-Its absurd.

    Haven't won 3 in a row for about 3 years either

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    Trenners / Scully / Bail / McKenzie hadnt won anywhere before this year.

    They dont seem to care much where they win and im not going to tell them otherwise.

    IMO - If we play with anywhere near the intensity we did on saturday we will smash North, who are a very average side.

    Go Dees!

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    Don't be so sure.

    What worries me about North is the pressure they put on the ball carrier (similar to our own). Adelaide, Richmond, Brisbane and certainly Collingwood were all very poor with this. The only team that put this sort of pressure on was Hawthorn and we buckled.

    Now we are a far better team with significantly higher confidence than round 1, however, its defensive pressure that will bring us unstuck, force mid-field turnovers and force us to play wide.

    How to beat the demons:

    1. Defensive Pressure

    2. Zone the corridor

    Also we are not playing at the MCG. I think I might tip North.

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    Just proves my theory that these online betting agencies are run and used by cowboys.

    We havent won a game away from the MCG for 3 years!!!! How can we be the Favorite-Its absurd.

    You can't help but understand the bookies being impressed with Melbourne's showing against Brisbane. They'd understand the confidence gained from such wins and the momentum gained, despite the poor record at Etihad. I think the odds are about right.

    I'll speculate that there would be quite a few Melb supporters who also love the punt. The bookies could be wary too.

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    Don't be so sure.

    What worries me about North is the pressure they put on the ball carrier (similar to our own). Adelaide, Richmond, Brisbane and certainly Collingwood were all very poor with this. The only team that put this sort of pressure on was Hawthorn and we buckled.

    Now we are a far better team with significantly higher confidence than round 1, however, its defensive pressure that will bring us unstuck, force mid-field turnovers and force us to play wide.

    How to beat the demons:

    1. Defensive Pressure

    2. Zone the corridor

    Also we are not playing at the MCG. I think I might tip North.

    The noticeable thing from the weekend is we are not shy of the pressure and run in sufficient numbers to make a zone difficult.

    When the centre was zoned last week we switched wide very quickly which was effective.

    Critically we are not fumbling in pressure situations.

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    The fact we are the Transition Kings TM means other team have little time to set up a zone.

    It has a lot to do with where and how we create turnovers.

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    Trenners / Scully / Bail / McKenzie hadnt won anywhere before this year.

    They dont seem to care much where they win and im not going to tell them otherwise.

    IMO - If we play with anywhere near the intensity we did on saturday we will smash North, who are a very average side.

    Go Dees!

    I hope you are dead right mate, but the bottom line is we have played 5 in a row at the MCG and have not won away from their since 2007, so until the final siren blasts and we are in front i will not have us as favorites when playing away-not yet anyway.

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    You can't help but understand the bookies being impressed with Melbourne's showing against Brisbane. They'd understand the confidence gained from such wins and the momentum gained, despite the poor record at Etihad. I think the odds are about right.

    I'll speculate that there would be quite a few Melb supporters who also love the punt. The bookies could be wary too.

    You could well be right HT. If i had taken the odds on Melbourne over the last 4 weeks i could have retired, sadly i didn't!!!

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    Melbourne's odds are at $1.80 to win this week - North are $1.95.

    Betting odds are not probabilities. They reflect the way the punters are betting.

    If the bookies were taking bets on Sav Rocca winning gold in the Olympic luge, the more the punters plunged (just in case), the more the odds would wind in. Even though the actual probability remains fixed.

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    Demons will win this in a canter.

    Absolutely nothing to worry about.

    I wasn't worried until I read this post :lol:

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