Lucifers Hero

GCS Update on May and Kade: Cameron suggested Brisbane’s pick five, which could go to Fremantle for Lachie Neale before moving to Melbourne for Hogan, would provide the linchpin for any May deal...we’re at the end of that chain and we’ll wait and see what happens," he said. "We’ll get something done with Kade either today or tomorrow," Cameron said...If they come to us with something around Steven then it might be tied into that, that’s a fair way off as I said." http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-16/may-happy-to-move-to-a-victorian-club The key point for me is pick 5 is the linchpin for a May deal ie there will be other +/- . I read that as GCS adding to May with picks or player(s) depending on when it gets done.

I didn't take @Leoncelli_36comments as a criticism and its a reasonable question/concern. Mahoney said: “For our scenario, there’s a few of the bigger decisions that need to be made, and then other decisions will fall off the back of that.” http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2018-10-08/day-one-trade-wrap As the bigger decisions (Hogan/May) haven't been made we simply don't know what the 'other decisions' are (except maybe KK) so its fair to raise the question of what other deals are held up or will be missed.

Hilarious!! Thanks for a few laughs on a dull day. Perfectly, described!!

Adelaide will likely wait till player trading is over tomorrow night and do something with picks in the following two days when pick trading is allowed (but no player trade). So, by that time it will be too late to 'Get May'. Or Adelaide wait till trade night and Live Pick Trading. Just can't see Adelaide doing a pick trade deal before player trading closes. If they were willing Freo would do it with pick 5 first. The way I see it happening is that Freo will do a deal with Brisbane even if it requires a back flip by Bell and take 5 (and maybe a late pick sweetener to 'save face') then shaft us as much as he can on the Hogan deal. In which case they will probably take pick 5 to the draft and cash in on the night - it will be worth more then than in the next week if (as is highly likely) one of the SA lads is still available.

Many of us feel that way. But if the two picks are for example, 11 and 16 there isn't much point if it doesn't get the May deal done. I'm sure we could draft two very good players at 11 and 16 but that is not mfc's end game this year. The end game is: 'Get May'. There is a reason the club would be prepared to accept 23 as part of the deal. For all we know the club could be indifferent on players available between pick 15 and 25 so we may get the player type we want at 23. And by all accounts the draft falls away quickly after pick 7. So I would rather 5 and 23 than two first round picks so we can 'Get May' and keep 23 for the draft (or pick upgrade).

This is significant. As you imply any in-principle agreements happened before Bell started his job. On starting he naturally asks for a trade update, doesn't like what he sees, delves deeper, still doesn't like it and stops everything. Upshot - tries to keep Neale and not so keen on Hogan. That is fair enough and to be honest I wouldn't give any player with a foot injury 8 years either, regardless of the $$ he wanted. As we now know, the problem is so many other deals are dependent on Bell making decisions. Analysis time is over!

The trade process has built into it a mediation phase for when clubs cannot agree on a trade. I think It is essential to have the mediation process so that difficult trades get done and so that the current Freo position causing a log jam for about 6 players is cleared. IIR the last time it was used was the Ryder trade to Port.

$1m pa is pretty standard for a top forward. An with inflation it won't be much in years 6-8. But 8 years!! Can't be too much wrong with his foot!! Edit: Update: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-trade-jesse-hogans-large-contract-demands-contributed-to-fremantle-rejecting-melbournes-trade-offer/news-story/578fbad1c64f774a808b80e3b8707900 JESSE Hogan’s camp asked Fremantle for an $8 million deal over eight years before the Dockers emphatically rejected Melbourne’s trade offer. Fremantle was prepared to consider a three or four-season contract, but considered eight years as a leap of faith too far. "...the Dockers spent significant time weighing up whether Hogan was worth it all. In the end, he wasn’t and the club’s statement was not a bluff". A Hogan trade is not dead in the water, but it appears Melbourne will have to buckle first.

I get that it is good theatre for the AFL but with so many impasses caused by Freo the AFL can't stand by and let the futures of these guys be stuck in limbo. Freo is all over the shop: want overs for Neale, give unders for Hogan, offer pick 11 to us, then Geelong, now GWS. Laughing stock. Mediation can take time so if Neale trade isn't done by noon tomorrow (and dominoes start falling) the AFL will need to do something to unblock the log jam.

Too many players in limbo: Neale, Hogan, May, KK and possibly Beames (Lions won't let him go if they don't get Neale). Freo causing quite a log jam so something needs to happen soon. Anyone ready to guess when the AFL will get involved and kick Freo into gear or call in the mediators for the Neale and Hogan trades.

In that case they should just say it is the injury rather than oblique references to 'due diligence' that sends the rumour mill into overdrive. If Jessie has issues they can't be as bad as some AFL bad boys, two of whom won brownlows (Swan and Martin) in recent years. If Freo have concerns but really backed their system they could team Jessie up with his good mate and Freo captain, Nat Fyfe. Injury concerns or not, I just think Freo are being malevolent to all and sundry and Jessie is the target of most attention.

Not if Freo include their 2019 1st pick for Hogan trade package (which they can do and stay within AFL rules if a 2019 1st or 3rd round pick come back to them during the trade period). GCS are now looking for future picks (already have No.2, 3, 19, 24 and 29 in this year's draft). We just need to structure the right deal with Freo to help GCS as much as we can. For example, GCS did a pick trade last year for a WCE's 2018 1st round but gave up a stack of 2nd round picks so I can see pick trades being part of the May deal - perhaps trade us pick 24 or 29 this year for some combo of our 2019 picks. This would help us move up the trade table this year and help GCS with 2019 picks. In a nutshell 2019 picks are becoming very valuable to GCS. We can use that to our advantage in the May and KK trades.

Agreed. I guess we would honour any 'in principle' agreement but we may gain from negotiations around the fringes. eg KK as part of the deal rather or a good pick coming back to us - they will have 5 or 6 picks under # 30.

May's options for a trade may be running out. The clubs that reportedly had interest and thought May was Demon bound: Pies - committed to keeping defenders, Moore and Langdon and are still chasing Beams. Hawks - trying to get Wingard, Scully and Scrimshaw (GCS). Essendon - committed to Shiel None of them appear to have cap space or trade currency to do a deal now. So, we may be his only chance to move back to Vic unless there is a late suitor. Only the Bulldogs or St Kilda would have the trade currency to deal but are not in finals contention.

The tribe has spoken: Hogan (72%) before Neale (28%). http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-14/your-say-dockers-should-keep-chasing-hogan Its crazy to think they will have both. Jesse will impact their club in the same way Buddy has Sydney both on the field and off the field with game attendance, memberships, sponsors etc. If they set it up properly Jessie is their marquis player (with Fyfe) for a long time to come.

Rather stupid of Bell to release such a strong statement on Friday. Suspect he has taken a fair bit of internal heat since and some powerful people (Sponsors, Coterie etc) have been asking questions. Sponsors certainly wouldn't be happy as Jesse is a huge marketing medium for them. In marketing terms, Jessie is Freo's Buddy! He is an enormous drawcard in Sydney. People flock to games just to watch him play, his name sells memberships, merchandising, sponsorhip etc. He brings in a lot more than the $1m pa they pay him. Freo need Jessie off the field as much as they do on. Look at the big picture, Bell!!!!

What I find distasteful is Freo's reference to discontinuing the 'due diligence' process, implying there is something wrong with Jesse or his character. If there is something wrong don't make an offer. If there isn't, don't infer something that people then start to claim he is 'damaged goods'. Rumours take on their own 'fake news sort of truth' that then need to be disproven. In a way it becomes guilty till proven innocent. An impossible catch-22! I don't know what is behind this talk of 'damaged goods' or if there is any truth in it and I don't really care but this campaign to besmirch Jesse's character to drive his trade value down is extremely unpleasant. Whoever he plays with, I hope he does a Dusty (after he was rejected by other clubs a few years ago for being 'damaged goods') and shows everyone his mettle and becomes the star he is capable of being.

He Doesn't! His pulpit is twitter!!

Freo do have a way of getting Hogan and importantly still save face: trade Neale to Brisbane, then include pick 5 in a trade to us. They can save face by saying 'we now have the picks to satisfy Melb in a trade'. But can't see them being smart or humble enough to be that sensible!

Now that you mentione Fyfe. It was reported that he and Jesse are great mates. Suspect Bell has [censored] off his own captain and perhaps other teammates who were looking forward to playing with Jesse and winning a few more games. Bell doesn't realise what a pandora's box he has opened. The guy is a football player and a radio jock - has no idea of managing people and organisations.

Seriously, Jesse doesn't deserve this crap. Freo made an in principle agreement with his manager (which is how the process should work). There is no way his manager would have let him tour Freo or do a medical if the deal couldn't get done. Now they serve him this rubbish. As if the kid hasn't had enough kicks from life. Get his hopes up and then pull the rug out. Just despicable of Freo to the club, Jesse's manager and most of all to Jesse. I really feel for Jesse. This is not of his making.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/docker-shocker-as-freo-pull-pin-on-hogan-pursuit-20181012-p509d7.html Melbourne are furious after the Dockers declared on Friday they were no longer pursuing Demons forward Jesse Hogan, having backflipped on an in-principle agreement with his management to offer Melbourne pick No.6 for the 23-year-old. How underhanded is that - to turn around and trade it to Port. I knew Bell couldn't be trusted. Had they not made that in principle agreement, this would not have ever got to first base. It is one thing to p-ss off MFC but not a good idea to p-ss off Jesse's manager by reneging on the deal. It just makes the manager look a bit foolish to not get the deal done for his player. So, don't like Freo's chances of Jesse's manager knocking on their door again!

Ah ha! Effectively gets Lobb and Hogan for Neale and a 1st round downgrade (5 to 11) +/- stuff. We cannot blink!

They could just as easily be pains in the butt to GWS and offer pick 23 for Lobb. 11 is overs for Lobb especially as GWS have said they are looking for a mid - teen pick and are desperate to dump salary. Sydney gave away Hannebery for peanuts (#39 +/-) for similar reason. I reckon 23 + sweeteners, will get Lobb done with GWS. But Bell seems to on an ego trip and will get more local kudos if he lands a 'big fish' (Hogan) cheaply than Lobb cheaply. So he toys with us. I don't trust Freo. I hope that Freo have snookered themselves. Jesse is a contracted player so he stays.

Thanks Dom. Echo others appreciation for joining us when we needed you. Good luck at North. As an aside, with Dom and Bernie going our eye candy stocks are quite low...