Lucifers Hero

The media is pushing the line that "GCS will get a top 3 pick for May as an FA next year so a trade should be a top 5 pick". GCS are making noises for a high pick but are they really committed to that? They know that if they push that line too hard they are admitting there will be no improvement at GCS next year. ie No Hope! That makes for a tough sell to the AFL, sponsors, members, draftees and potential trades. When it gets down to the wire they might just accept a lower pick or a combo of picks and players as they must set up to improve in 2019 and a top 5 pick, 18 yo kid is not going to do that. .

I get all that. Being chased by Freo for a long time is certainly a consideration but does he want football success or not? He has spent 6 years at a struggling club and is facing something similar at Freo. It will be difficult to play his best football at a club that is rebuilding. I think we are about to find out where football success really sits in Jesse's life. Maybe he just wants to play with his mates at Freo. Whatever makes him happy, I guess. As an aside, I keep reading he was a Crows supporter but Wikipedia, which is not always right, says he was born and raised in Perth.

If true it is odd that Hogan would exclude WCE entirely. One wonders why he would be so fixated on Freo (barracking for them in is youth seems a flimsy reason). Given he wants to return to WA one would think he looks at the potential for football success and considers all options. From afar, it seems WCE have it over Freo on and off the field. A strange cat, is Jesse.

There are many permutations for Port and Adelaide and I would imagine they are both talking earnestly to the clubs with picks 1-5. Their need to deal to trump each other is what will make it fascinating. They may end up so focused on 'winning the race' that they lose track of the real value they hold.

Bulldogs seem interested in Wingard again and "The Dogs are likely to dangle their first-round pick, currently selection six, as part of the deal to get the Power to trade them the two-time All Australian". http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/no-doubt-the-bulldogs-are-keen-on-chad This would dash Freo's hopes of getting Port's pick 9 and 10 for their pick 4 or 5. So Freo will only have 4 and 5 and they certainly won't give both up and our chances of getting two top 10 picks go down the gurgler. Depending on their expectations for 2019 they might give up their 2019 1st pick and get something back. Or it may be pick 5 and a player for Jessie. Simply, Freo can't trade what they don't have/can't get. Port will go to the draft with 6, 9 and 10 if they trade Wingard and Polec. As an aside, the sideshow to see which of Adel and Port position themselves highest to get the SA talent will be fascinating.

He won't be part of the May deal -The May deal being dependent on a Jesse deal and it won't be done early next week!

Too many factors at play for me to get into the pick # discussion. But I guess it comes down to whether we have a target high in the draft. Given our mo, if we get enough trade currency in for the May deal and for our other targets the actual draft pick #'s aren't such a big deal. The pick #s for Hogan might outrage some fans but if we get the list we want so be it.

WOW! To hear this from you gives it some real cred. If I recall correctly, you nailed the progress of the Jesse negotiations during the pre trade period in 2016. And you nailed the progress of the Lever negotiations last year. It came to pass just as you had described. Your don't post often but you have been right on the money! Thanks for your input. The fun and games are just starting!

Nice hypothetical! It would really snooker North: choose between Polec or Gaff!! Your underlying point is valid. If WCE want Jesse they will find the trade currency to make it happen. They can package up their 2018/2019 picks (to other clubs) to find a deal that we can agree with. Any WCE players we would be interested in, for a Jesse deal? Having said that I reckon WCE are posturing! Their fans would be asking the big question: Why aren't we chasing Jesse? WCE can't be seen to be doing nothing. Their fans would love the theater of giving Freo a fright and watching them squirm, even if they don't get Jesse.

The heat on Freo just went up on Freo: "WEST Coast coach Adam Simpson hasn't ruled out pursuing Jesse Hogan, declaring the Eagles are "all ears" if the star Melbourne forward...want to come home". http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/eagles-all-ears-if-hogan-kelly-want-wa-return Eagles don't have the sal cap or the trade currency to better a Freo deal but it certainly puts the pressure on Freo to get a deal done. Very clever by WCE it forces Freo to pay the max which weakens their position on other list management decisions and in a two horse town it by default strengthens WCE's position. Its a mini version of Packer forcing Ch7 to pay max price for AFL TV rights! Thank you, Eagles ?

As an aside we went thru this little dance with Jesse with his last contract extension. It was announced on Oct 4 2016, a few days before the trade period started. I recall learned chat here on DL that he had been given an ultimatum: extend the contract now or we will trade you. The timing of that contract supports that chat. I suspect the same thing is happening now, except maybe a tougher stance on extension terms. Can't imagine the club wanting this little dance to happen every two years. For the club, for the team, for Jesse he needs to commit for the long haul or he goes. I really don't think there is a satisfactory middle road here.

That might suit Hogan but I can't imagine the club buying it. He gets the mega deal and we get pick 16-18 as AFL comp when he goes as an FA. He won't get a one year extension! Leaving mfc as an FA won't happen. The real heat is on Hogan - does he want a another year of media 'go home' speculation. With this mooted move to go home now the speculation will become stratospheric in 2019. He is a private guy, I reckon he will choose to go now and get on with his life.

Can't wait for ET's response! ?

The jumper must be some sort of prank - he barracks for Carlton (yes I know, not much better than Collingwood...)

Sorry, I don't know the answers ? I'm not even sure answers are available as the rules were written in 2015 and the AFL 'clarify' the rules as they go along eg Geelong . The guiding principle, as I understand it, is to ensure clubs don't trade away their future. As an aside, that didn't help Freo, Saints and GC as they made a right mess of their 2018 future pick trading at a time they have poor lists.

Wingard (with tail between legs) has decided to stay at Port. No-one willing to pay the $1m pa he was asking. Re picks Hawthorn always seem to find a way of doing the deals they want done ala O'Meara and Mitchell (both of whom didn't go for big $$). From a salary cap point of view they have Rioli off their books and Roughy and 'Silk' off their books in a year. If Shiel chooses Hawks they will make it happen.

Examples of other players taking the big $$ to the two I mentioned are...? (Shiel has not yet accepted the big $$ being thrown at him by Carlton and StK. In fact he is said to be favouring the Hawks for $900k per season).

Gaff will be one of the few players to take the big $$ over staying or going to a club in a premiership window. Others I can think of to move on big $$ and end badly were: Ablett (the years at GCS do not reflect well on him, despite his Brownlow there), HW$NBN - forever to be the quintessential AFL Judas! But may still get his Premiership. Others who took the big $$ but at a Premiership contending club were Buddy and Tom Boyd. Gaff seems a really decent bloke who seemed emotionally invested in the Eagles. I hope for his sake he does not regret the extra $$ over what might have been at the Eagles or other Vic clubs because I doubt North can come close to winning a Premiership with Scott as coach.

Rule: Clubs must make at least two first-round selections in each four-year period. If they don't, they will face restrictions from trading any further first-round draft picks. Geelong may need to play catch up http://www.geelongcats.com.au/news/2018-07-19/cats-first-round-requirements With no first round picks in 2016, 2017, 2018 (might change) used, technically we need to trade in a first round pick this year or an extra one next year otherwise we won't have the required two picks (unless we get exemption) but like Geelong it eventually catches up with you. I can't find any reference to an mfc request to trade our 2019 pick. I would suggest if we had it would be public knowledge by now as the trade starts in a few days. As an aside, something that is untested with the AFL is the number of 1st round picks taken over a period ie would we get an allowance for traded in an extra pick in 2015? Edit: Just re-read the AFL article in the above link and found this line: "... the rest of the competition has already met its quota and is free to place 2018 and 2019 first-round picks on the table." So we don't need permission.

Do they? Port could chase the Saints pick 3 so they can trump Adelaide for SA players. Saints have no 2nd or 3rd round pick and need a decent pick for Hannebury, a less decent pick for Kent and picks for other targets. Saints might happily relieve Port of picks 9 and 10. Saints may then cash #10 for 2 low/middle second round picks. So far all we have heard is that Freo are trying to get Port's 9 and 10 (if they get it). Port may have other ideas...

Max seems keen to get Preuss to the Dees. Sounds like we would play two ruckmen. https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/max-gawn-keen-for-braydon-preuss-support-20181002-p507bq.html Mahoney hinted at that in radio interview when he said there were others beside Preuss we are looking at for the role we had in mind (or words to that affect).

Yep a flag will be huge. In the meantime, the 90,000 crowd at each MCG finals shows we probably have 70,000 but about 25,000 of them are MCC members so don't count in our numbers. That the MCC had about 5,000 empty seats for the Pies/Tigers game shows how strong our support is within the MCC Those crowds also showed the latent support out there for the dees that as yet haven't joined as members. They may never do so but they are out there. Nonetheless, that turnout will prompt broadcasters and future sponsors to stand up and take notice. It will be huge for our exposure and the chance to capture the hearts of a younger generation and newcomers to aussie rules.

I thought his partner is a teacher at Corpus Christi College...

Presumably he would give a speech only if he featured in the awards. A very very outside chance of 5th in the Bluey so unlikely to hear from him.

Maybe our interest in Preuss is to help counter the impact of the longer goal square? The ball from a kick in will reach the fat part of the ground - far to wide to for one ruckman to defend. I can see Max patrolling one side of the ground and Preuss the other. This will allow us to keep our forward structures in place without dragging Tom Mc or Weideman up the field to defend the kick ins and get the ball forward.