Demon Dynasty

Our mid field had a decent win last week against a better rated mid field than St Kilda so in theory we should come out on top in this battle if we're on.The 2 keys will be our ability to shut down Roo & Stevens while at the same time kicking enough goals to get in front, then defend and stay there when the fat lady sings. Apart from Garlett and occasional cameos from Howe & the Hulk (who had a shocker last week), our forward line hasn't really clicked this year and IMO is presently our biggest weakness along with a few other ugly aspects of our skill levels and decision making in general play (outside of set plays around stoppages which has improved substantially but is unfortunately not sustained for the full 4 quarters...yet). Hoping for the best... Preparing for the worst

Nothing to do with a jinx. 20 in a row says it all

Defensive forward roles yes but Bail often racks up the lowest numbers of any running/run with player in the team, has little impact defensively i50 and rarely impacts the scoreboard when pushing forward other than the odd rare goal from a set shot. Jones is a notch above Bail and gets more involved in general stoppage play but still doesnt impact enough to warrant a regular game. Neither have grown into AFL regulars and will more than likely be traded/delisted at year's end.

His consistency and dedication to improve his game has been first class during a period of absolute horror. Much admiration for the dunny brush. Deserves a spell from the back half at some point in my opinion, even if just a few games to freshen him up. Couldn't do any worse than the Hulk's last game or Dawes and might even kick a couple.

Jones & Bail's numbers are a fair indicator of the gap between VFL & AFL standards and pace of game. Both unable to take the next step to impact in the big league so far.

The irony

The Hulk and Viney as well. The hulk is very green

Yes I agree HL. Among other factors, pretty obvious we need a stellar game from T-Mac on the Roo If we are to get over the line

If only it was that simple chook. I think there's a whole lot more that we would need to get right to notch up a win tomorrow

Dunn would be fine on Bruce. Held a monster to 3 goals, 1 goal a quarter, last week after he got off to a flyer in the first. Apart from the one off ugly kick in, Dunn was in our top 5 and easily the best of our defenders against the Pies. Possibly not at his best form from last year but still solid. Cross was also great down back playing the loose man/pushing up into the mid.

Surely it wasn't that surprising... http://www.afl.com.au/video/2015-06-08/what-was-he-thinking

Just watching replay for first time. I note that with 8 minutes to go in 2nd quarter, after Oxley takes his 2nd intercept mark in close succession, Timmy is already asking the question "Melbourne now have a decision, do they let him go back there as that free player or do they man him up?" Pretty clear in hindsight that our coaching panel stuffed this one up badly. If Timmy is seeing this as a neutral observer so early after the move was made by the Pies, surely we should have as well. Had all of half time to mull over it and get it right as well. Unfortunate that Roos couldn't admit that they (him and coaching panel) got this horribly wrong on the day. In addition we continued to roll an extra man in Crossy back even when we were a few goals or more behind with plenty of time left. What were we trying save at that point? Had they made the correct decision with Oxley, the players eliminated some of their horrid clangers, defended better in transition, hit up more leading targets to work our way up the field instead of just bombing it up the line most of the time, and pulled the trigger to go inside instead of up the line around mid field more often, I think we win this match well. Examples of players who are either incapable of pulling the trigger to hit lead up targets "inside" or just don't look and instead "panic" bomb it up the line from a marking situation (which indirectly resulted in turnovers to the Pies and 2 late goals to them in the 2nd term) were Fitzpatrick, who had a wide open Brayshaw in the middle, and Garland, who was roughly on HBF members side and had a leading Riley coming through the centre square to offer a nice lead. Unfortunately we did none of the above.... and lost (again). A pitty because our midfield won their contests for the most part :-(

So you wouod have passed on Judd as well...hmmm

C & B to avoid playing more sides who are above us so often we have to start winning. Then we will be playing more games against sides below us and not as many against sides above us.

I'd say that is Roosey's way of letting Spencil kno that he is still a required player. At least until seasons end and Gawn has been given a decent run to see whether he's an option as well. Roos is no doubt looking through all options at Casey for remainder of season before his next clean out and Gawn should get a decent crack at it over the next month or so, just like he did with Spencil.

Apologies BB..literally just saw that post in a reply. Didnt mean to steal your post lol

Most of the ins/outs would be just that (experimenting) apart from injury issues I would think JRS. Its not like they are stellar performers busting their way back in or huge losses if ommitted (eg, Newton/Jones). Its only fair that fringe players be given a decent shot at a career in AFL before the potential axe is swung at season's end. We arent playing finals either so Roos can mix it up for the remainder of the season while no doubt also trying to avoid a major blow out resulting in even less confidence amongst the keepers.

Can u blame us RP? We haven't looked anything like what normal AFL teams look like for nearly a decade with the exception of the odd rare gem here and there (eg, Monday) so when we do look like it at times like that it's all a bit strange O.o Not alone there BB. Me and bro are often turtle necking the big screen to try and work out how we managed that last diabolical F.U! :-O

He's been a rare solid reycled player for us so far BB. The blues really have buggered themselves lately. I can only hope we've finally turned the corner in this regard thx to Roos. Been a long time coming. Now to fill in the rest of the gaps!

Dunn should't be taking the kick ins often unless we are looking to just bomb it for a change up to the regular strats IMO. He lacks the precision kicking skills required at this level to hit lead up or short targets efficiently that's why he often goes the big bomb. Part of the blame for this has to be put on Roos & Co as this has been obvious for many games now. How often do you see the opposition get a quick outlet kick into the pocket as first option from kick ins? Let me tell you it's pretty regular and they dont often miss either. What do we do? We continue with Dunny for pretty much the entire game and its fairly predictable. He'll often kick it to himself, play on and roost it down the line or occasionally bomb it down the middle as a change up or just bomb it out wide without playing on. Old fashioned 80s/90s style footy from back in the day. Not saying we shld never do this or that the other way (short outlet precision kick in to pocket etc) is the only/best method 100% of the time either. But the present strat isnt working well. And if its not working...fix it. Use better kick ins who are more accurate by foot most of the time for a start pls Roosey... eg, Jetta/Watts

The trouble is Ted, our endeavor was there for most of the match, but as soon as the wick is turned up and it gets hot in the kitchen there just always seems to be 2 3 or more players that somehow manage to do the dumbest things when we can least afford it. And some of them arent new to the scene either. So you have to ask, are they actually up to playing solid footy when the pressure is placed on them which is part of the game. I realise experience under match day pressure "should" help. But for some reason we just keep unearthing new ways of deestroying the movement of the air conveyance. Hopefully we get into more of these situations this year so the FD can see who is up to it and who isn't and we trade accordingly. Cant see us winning on a regular basis until the regular offenders are replaced with more reliable/talented performers. Brayshaw is one that brought a smile to my heart on Monday that we have found someone special in this regard. Bring on more Brayshaws please Roos!

Definitely propped!

Thanks Deanox. Please note that "Hard ball gets" are included as part of the contested possession stat. Yes i am in general agreement that more emphasis should be placed on UP differentials as, in the majority of cases, a positive differential is more likely to relate to winning vs CP differentials apparantly. Unless of course as you say, the CP differential blows out and gets extremely ugly (for your team) then you're in trouble even if winning the UP diff but it would need to be consistantly ugly as well (a la us during the MN years!). No argument from me there. But, to know in what general areas we are doing well (eg., inside/outside etc), not so well or just tracking square, you still need to watch both (along with other stats IF meaningful). Focussing solely on UP diff alone would be an unwise move is all i'm saying, as would focussing too much on any one stat differential of course.

THE HAWTHORN EFFECT! I believe it's the Hawthorn factor at play here guys (Note: not an original concept... see extract from The Roar below). Since Hawthorn won the premiership in 2008, and have been quite dominant since with their back to back, other teams (Freeo, Port & to some extent GWS) are at work trying to capture the essence that is the Hawthorn way and of course maybe even better it/tweak it. Using run/spread and precision kicking (through the press off HB and in general around the ground when defensive structures/pressure is working) to lethal effect. Stats can't play football but if used sparingly and carefuly we can utilise them to paint a comparitive picture of what the latest trends in the game are, but more specifically, which teams are able to get their mojo going and changing their game style more towards the latest trending game style. RPFC & Titan are spot on with the UP differential being a strong indicator of who is able to spread, distrubute the ball and maintain possession effectively and efficiently. The more a team can do this the easier it is for them to improve their disposal efficiency as they have more time/space to effect their next disposal. But you still need extractors (clearances/first possession), you still need to pressure, kill the ball/intercept mark, initiate effective presses, etc and force turnovers, especially in critical parts of the ground....then score from them (eg., scoring efficiency%...no point getting the ball inside 50 if horrid in front of goal or even worse hardly having any shots at all with ball rebounding out easily/very few marks i50 etc). So in the end i would be placing more emphasis on UP differentials when seeing how we are progressing vs other teams than contested but we also need to include contested, clearances, pressure acts, intercept marks (Oxley!!) etc into the mix to put together what is a complex tapestry of what is taking place on the field both offensively, defensively and pressure wise. Unfortunately we only have basic (publicly available) stats to do this with as we have no access to things like intercept marks, pressure acts, pressure acts inside 50, "effective" tackles, "effective" tackles inside 50 (Watts on Varcoe & the conversion!). UP differential is a solid stat though and does give us a rough guide as to how well we are progressing, or otherwise, towards getting our boys to play the style of footy that is having solid success right now. Based on this we are miles away from acheiving what the likes of the Dockers and Port have managed in the last 18 months or so and may well be stone motherless last right now. Fast tracking needed big time on our spread, run/carry and ability to share/retain the footy. Many D'landers of course are already well aware of this issue. A very obvious problem foreseen and spoken about for years i realise so apologies for repeating a broken story in advance. Nutbeans post above is a solid contribution towards this side. In addition to what he said about school yard footy under Neeld, I also felt that under MN we not only played that way but it was doubly worse than Nutbean's version!. We would have 2 to 3 players too many, hunting the footy as Nut said, and 2 or 3 others on the outside always sweating on their man, playing from behind and WAITING for their opponent to get the ball first....then trying to suddenly "swoop" in with a quick tackle to hopefully effect yet another stoppage. Unfortunately when you "allow" your opponent first use of the ball and it's a quality opponent (for us that's roughly anyone in the top 12), plus then have that opponent generally beat us on the UP (spread/run & carry, possession etc)....a recipe for a complete disaster (under MN). And it was. I believe Roosey has gone a long way to rectifying this....but.... i still see some of our boys "switch" into "watching their opponent" mode and always playing/sweating on "him" and being reactive from behind, rather than hunting the ball, for certain periods during a game. A hangover and habitual issue from the MN years maybe? Happy to give up front position and given we generally don't spread/run/carry and maintain possession as well as others, well you can guess what the outcome is going to be. To me this is as damaging to us during a match (when it's happening) just as much as the UP/spread/possession side. So in a nutshell we have a fair way to go to improve our run/spread/possession type play AND we sometimes regress into the ugly part of the MN era where some selective players revert back to "man" watching and sweating on their opponent from behind, instead of ball watching while maintaining "touch" on their direct opponent and instinctively going after the ball if it's within their area "first", then recognising that if a fellow player gets his hands on it first or is likely too.... spread quickly to receive. Some are STILL stuck in a time warp here, too fixated and worried about what will happen if they don't sweat on their direct opponent and tackle him IF he happens to get it. I don't believe this happens for an entire match but it is still happening during parts of a match by some. I've included a few interesting articles here that go into aspects of the Uncontested/Contested side of statistics for those interested.... An extract from one of those artciles paints a nice picture of the UP differential vs CP differential argument that RP is highlighting..... Are uncontested possessions becoming more important? Id like to end with a bit of a thought provoker: having a positive UP differential is, increasingly, a marker of success. Check out the below chart, which shows the 200 game moving average winning percentage of teams with a positive CP and positive UP. In economics, this is what we call structural change. Since 2008, the expected winning percentage of teams with a positive UP differential has moved higher by around about five percentage points, while the winning percentage for a positive CP differential have moved lower by around eight percentage points. Are sides finally cottoning on to the notion that ball use is more important than toughness, and the ability to win the ball in contested situations? Perhaps. Id call this The Hawthorn Effect': after Hawthorn won the 2008 flag, largely on the back of elite skills and smart offensive and defensive structures, the ability to possess the ball more often in situations that allow for the execution of skills appears to be having a strong impact on winning percentage. Thats not to say contested possessions arent important but we may be moving further into a new era in the AFL where skills and execution are placed at a premium over the ability to bullock through packs and find a way out with the ball. The full article here.... http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/07/09/missing-tablescontested-possessions-important/ Hawthorn & Freo leading the UP charge (have posted this before but still worth a read for those who may have missed.... http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-premiership/hawthorn-and-fremantle-success-driven-by-winning-uncontested-possessions/story-e6frf3e3-1227315390602

I hope the players are also imagining us winning Webb