Demon Dynasty

Select Season Stat Rankings - 2018 v 2019 (inclusive to Rnd 5)

A DEElightful set of numbers SW.... ok here's a summary of our highs and lows for the 2019 season to Rnd 5. It would appear the mid field still has a heartbeat but the remainder is on life support There is still effort (tackling) but we are equally the worst ball handlers in the league (No.1 in clangers) along with the Tigers (yes there is hope tomorrow night folks!). Anyone have access to pressure point stats 2018 v 2019? P.S. Don't take too much notice of clangers. Turnover stat is a little more meaningful IMHO. We are only ranked 3rd here (yikes!) ...the Tigers 13th (lower ranking is better in this case in case anyone is wondering) ?... High Rankings Low Rankings ● Ranked 4th in Tackles Per Game ● Ranked 2nd in Hitouts Per Game ● Ranked 3rd in Inside 50s Per Game ● Ranked 2nd in Clearances Per Game ● Ranked 1st in Clangers Per Game ● Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Hitouts Per Game ● Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Hitouts Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 3rd in Team to Opponent Inside 50s Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Clearances Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Clangers Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 16th in Kicks Per Game ● Ranked 15th in Handballs Per Game ● Ranked 17th in Disposals Per Game ● Ranked 18th in Marks Per Game ● Ranked 14th in Points Per Game ● Ranked 17th in Rebound 50s Per Game ● Ranked 15th in least Opponent Kicks Per Game ● Ranked 16th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game ● Ranked 16th in least Opponent Disposals Per Game ● Ranked 18th in least Opponent Points Per Game ● Ranked 18th in least Opponent Tackles Per Game ● Ranked 17th in least Opponent Goal Assists Per Game ● Ranked 16th in least Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game ● Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 14th in Team to Opponent Handballs Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 17th in Team to Opponent Goal Assists Per Game Diff. ● Ranked 16th in Team to Opponent Rebound 50s Per Game Diff. Stats: Courtesy of footywire.com

Wise to give less attention and rigour than you might normally do to any smashing, especially one nearing the pinnacle of this profession (prelim final), is a VERY foolish move IF that is what has occured. And i'm not saying in concrete the FD didn't fully review as per normal, but all "press speak" from Goody would suggest that he and/or the FD didn't review as deeply as they might usually do (assuming they do so as a matter of course when a match is lost etc). Assuming he isn't lying to the press and us as members (a dangerous assumption i realise but we can only take what Goody says on face value) then for whatever reason he has not been as professional as he normally would because of his own beliefs.....rather than, potentially, the cold hard facts of the outcome following an in depth inclusive review, by his entire review team (whoever that might be). If the above is in any away close to the truth, then as the Head Coach, Goody has let himself, the players/members and club as a whole, down very badly and as a minimum he has not carried out his role professionally, in this particular instance. Luck has certainly played a part in the systemic fall from grace through pre-season injuries/surgeries as has some ordinary (or worse) form from a select group of players. The players should not be completely exonerated in some cases (others are performing at a reasonable level or have even improved on their 2018 so far and should be encouraged). No, our current fall doesn't all lie at the foot of SG & the FD. But i'm afraid it would appear (as an outsider) that SG also played a very big part in the present sorry state of affairs on the field by playing down a Prelim Final result that, if he was being honest, should have received at least the same, if not double, the scrutiny of a normal ugly H&A loss. With the extended number of outs early in the season this has also exposed how ordinary our list actually is, outside of our best 22 (when fit). Most players outside our best 22 are simply not up to AFL level in any way shape or form (now....some might be in years to come). The cupboard is pretty much completely bare down there. If the club decides at some point (IF SG & Co. can't right the ship by mid season) that a mid season review of all levels is required, then the present 'depth' (or lack thereof) debacle, needs to be at the top of that review list. Regardless that aspect needs a full review ASAP. It's one of the major reasons the SG game style is now flopping in front of our eyes.

Half forward yes but you still need speed out wide on the G to break a game open and/or defend against a fast break from a shallow entry into our forward 50. And if a sluggish wingman's opponent gets out the back on a fast break our defenders are toast . And with sluggish wingman you can't afford to push too high on a hard forward press. That almost kills the raison d'etre for the entire "lock the ball in our 50" strategy as the Opp will place a few quick smaller defenders to run off into space and hook up with anyone faster than our wingman out wide over the top! And as you say, their wingman don't have to be that quick...just quicker than ours...which isn't hard against Jones and Lewis. And thats exactly what the Saints did. Too easily picked off on either side on the fast break for multiple joe the gooses into forward 50 and a few joe the gooses beyond that, running into an open goal. In the case of Jones and Lewis they are unable to cover that option meaning the Opp can switch to either fat side and potentially gain an advantage with a slightly speedier match up if they move the ball reasonably quickly and accurately, which the Saints did very nicely for much of the game. Yes you might be able to cover one sluggish wingman IF you have HBs that are able to cover enough ground quickly enough to close down space on their opponent and play them closely enough when the switch is on. But even then you are still going to have a spare if they get away from a Jones or Lewis at any stage, creating an overlap player that's coming towards or inside 50 under little or no pressure. Easily able to hit up forward targets on a lead etc or even run into an open goal from or around the arc. Defenders have no chance covering this effectively much of the time as the Opp can pick either side of the ground at will and bring it in under little pressure with solid accuracy. You simply can't play sluggish players or even one on the wings at the G for long periods of a match against quality opposition and not expect to be severely punished in today's super professional game. Any coach who believes this is an option is going to be torn a new one by any half decent opposition. A great team will absolutely pulverize it and make it look like a training drill. Also you say as soon the HBs & HFs dropped off Lewis & Jones were toast. Chicken and Egg DS. We gave them a massive incentive to make multiple switches and do just that as they knew their wingman would eventually get the better of both our old boys out wide. If they can't see or don't believe that opening is in front of them they are less likely to try it as often leaving our HBs & HFs a tad less exhausted and probably able to punish more effectively going the other way or be more accurate at goal when having a shot. All the little wins (or losses) on the day add up!

Lewis only has a few limited assets left including his ability to read the play and intercept across HB, then feed off. Goody would have been about the only official in the football that would have felt Lewis (and Jones) should be played off a wing (at the G). Don't play him at all if he can't play his usual HB role in that case. It was an amateur call as was the idea of putting Jones on the other wing. By the times Lewis and Jones run "Hard" backwards the ball would already be rebounding (after having gone there already) and be sailing over their heads before they've gotten half way there. It's the quickest part of the ground, you don't play your slowest through there. Yet that's what our senior coach did from the get go. The Saints coaching group must have been laughing and licking their lips on seeing that set up at the first bounce but initially must have thought "settle boys....it's just a ploy....they won't continue with that one!".

It's not that crazy BoG. If we lose against the Tiges i would say it's a necessity. An objective review of the entire FD and list wouldn't hurt at all regardless, especially post 666!

Possibly an indicator of form ....or maybe not Buck. The differing outcomes might also be a result of the quality of the opposition on the day/night in question. Other factors such as a high pressure match versus free flowing in the other etc. Far from a perfect science especially using one set of numbers from one match to compare. Comparing averages over 3 to 4 weeks probably a bit more robust. P.S. Our bottom 6 are better!!

Round 5, 2019 Demons vs Saints MCG Pure Stats Predictor has the Saints winning by 10 Points (includes best estimate for Ins/Outs) Team weighted score Last Round prior to Ins/Outs.... Demons 53.93 Saints 61.10 Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round Demons Saints Bottom 6 Demons Saints *Omitted this round (5) 2019

The bottom line is, it's easier to do everything when you are winning. Repeat customers, new etc. Winners are griners and the feeling is catchy. Last Thursday was an important win and another positive step for the club, being prime time Thurs night up against one of the AFL's big favourites.

Otherwise known as "rat cunning" DG. Something the MFC seems to lack but must find at the trade/draft table.

Guys a very important fact is being overlooked here. One man (or even 2 or 3) as we know, can't carry a team on his/their own or continue to forever. Old father time eventually catches up with mother nature at some point. However, for whatever reason/s, there are still too many in the team that have been either significantly off or way off their 2018 best and/or still haven't strung together a series of what we could describe as "form" worthy matches. One week ok, the next ordinary, the next up a little or off a little again. For some they've been a fair way off for most matches. Ok so it's been a horror start. Last week the exception against a fairly sluggish Swans outfit and on a ground that favours our 'swarming / bash and crash through' inside biased game style. A win is a win though and of course it helps with confidence and buying in to the 'team defence' mantra etc. When more of the players who are well off their best to this point, start to lift their output, then the results of others around them should also start to lift a little (in theory!). That lift should also assist the likes of the Jones Boy (generally) with his contribution/form. Winning form will help of course. But the whole team is off it's 2018 averages (statistically) by about 13%. In a team (form/output) sense at AFL level that's massive. And not in a good way obviously. We have some of last season's best players statistical averages off around the 50% mark vs last season! Others around the 20% - 30% mark etc. One of those, ANB (a regular in 2018 playing 22 matches), is already out the door ...for now. He was off 47% on his own 2018 averages when omitted. Admittedly we were only 3 rounds in but that's where he was at. When the team as a whole lifts (hopefully consistently) only then should we be truly judging where some individuals are at if they are way off the measure. If the team was humming then of course we are able to more clearly see if some aren't performing or carrying their load. But we need so many to lift at this stage. Hopefully that upward trajectory commenced last week and those who were a fair way off their 2018 form start to hop on the "Good Form" train. Remember the old saying..."Many hands make light work"! Let's hope we can continue our winning form and make light work of the Aints.

Stats Predictor has the Swans winning by 26 Points (excludes allowance for umpiring bias!). Top 6 ranked players (weighted statistical composite) last round Demons Swans Bottom 6 Demons Swans *Omitted for Rnd 4 2019

Clangers and Turnovers would probably go some way towards it Optimus. That's all we have at public level. Champion data may have something more specific we aren't privy to.

Such a complex and difficult game Praha. Hoping it's more an under done fitness/tank issue that's impacting the defensive two way aspect. The outs are definitely impacting also. No point being too harsh at this point but at some stage those who seem to be way off it vs last year (trend wise) need to start lifting their output/form. If we had a few more knocking on the door at Casey it might help also.

✌? cheers Skuit and Buck. I took a sneak peak straight after the Swans match ....lets just say it wasnt exactly warming ? Although they were playing the Blues so maybe, just maybe, things are out of whack on their numbers. I'll try and adjust for Ins / Outs (where possible) after tonight's announcements before hitting the prediction button and posting on here.

Normally i would not post any weighted average rankings till at least round 6 as the amount of data to go on just isn't robust enough. And in this case the same principle applies so best not to take too much notice of the table below, especially with some players having played only one match and others coming in under done etc. However, thought i'd go a tad early due to the less than stellar beginning to get a very rough idea where some players are at, even at this premature phase, versus their entire 2018 season averages. Will revisit this again after Rnd 6 vs 2018 and also compare the block of 3 games from tomorrow evening through to the Tigers and compare percentage & rank changes vs the first 3 rounds. Whoever it was in the press who said Clarry (among others) is a bit off, needs to have a rethink IMHO. May be a tad up and down (who isn't / wasn't in the first 3 rounds) but over the 3 matches so far he has started pretty much exactly where he left off in 2018, and that after surgery on both shoulders! This is the stuff legends are made of....get around him boys! Premierships are won off the back of great players with courage such as Clarry, as long as everyone pulls in the same direction (and most gaping holes filled with solid recruiting!). Carn the Mighty Demons! Note: Big M's stats do not include hit outs to advantage. His ranking would obviously be altered if there was some way of including this stat specific to ruck work only.

I would think a full pre-season without any foot interruption issues will bring that power back again BBP. We might see it in patches this year but wouldn't be expecting it regular given the interruptions. Personally i think this year is a bit of a write off. For reasons already mentioned umpteen times. I reckon we just have to get more games into those we think might continue on the list in 2020. Get those we know are required who aren't fit back on the park (obviously) and into the system firing a little again, learning whatever system it is Goody is teaching and finding some confidence in their own game, the game style and slowly finding the trust in one another again. Severely lacking especially down back at the moment. Get May back in ASAP and hopefully cement his spot, learning to gel with Lever and the other regular backs we settle on. Omac and Frost need to go back to Casey once these 2 are both back. Frost to learn to make better decisions on the run and clean up his disposal to an acceptable level before returning. I would put Hunt in that category also if he can't improve his disposal by foot substantially in the next month or so (provided we have a replacement to cover). You can't win footy matches without a solid defence and at the moment this is our weakest point, closely followed by the forward line and a sever lack of speed and finishing skills on the outside. Fritschkrieg/Salem & Stretch/Harmes off both wings is a non negotiable at this point. If we are playing Jones or anyone without a bit of toe out there from here you have to really question the judgement of our coaching panel. There's not a huge amount we can do up forward other than bringing Jeffy/Spargo back, waiting for T-mac to get over his injury and find form and hoping that the likes of Lockhart (Chandler at some point?) find their way as the season goes. Then there's the Jones conundrum. Personally i think we can still play him through there, just in very short stints or more of a run with role on the right match. Alternating between these roles and resting in the forward pocket/bench. Avoid putting Jones AND Viney into the middle at the same time and we'll be ok IMO. At the end of the year we must throw everything at a genuine KPF and at least 2 serious speedsters on the outside who are able.to work their way through traffic, make good decisions coming inside 50 and at AFL level with their foot skills. Ideally we also need a genuine small crumber with bjrst speed who has the hunger to run both ways (defend) and knows where the goals are. From there Goody needs to take us to another level so we are capable of playing man on man and up in the face of opponents with a full ground style press similar to what we saw from the Eagles against the Pies with intense pressure, not just zoning. Then there's the other side. Being able to maintain possession and slowing the game down, switching multiple times and looking for that eventual free player to start off the next link up play inside 50 on the overlap etc. At the moment we are all straight ahead attack attack like a bull at a gate (whose brain has left him). Bombing also results at the end of that attack on most occasions. If our disposal skills by foot were generally better across the park this constant attack style might be more damaging (maybe we were more accurate last year?) But at this point our.disposal and decision making is so horrid vs last year, bull at a gate is nowhere near as effective, especially with a leaky backline on the sling shot once we turn it over or the Opp cleans up in our very ordinary forward line.

He started off his career as mostly a HFFer from what,i recall Wise but obviously had youth on his side back then. Forward pocket?

Maynard's about the only direct replacement mid available though SW. He might be worth rolling through there at some stage but can't see it unless one of the main 4 that run through there go down with an injury. I still think there's a part to play for Jones but as you say, old father time is against him.

This is spot on Wrecker. We can't afford another Junior Mac episode. I'm not writing Jones off for the year either but it's not looking great. Prefer to revisit this about Rnd 8 - 10 and see where everyone is placed with a fair chunk of matches behind us.

So is that a slow tag vs a soft tag Soi?

While this is probably true Demon who do you bring in to replace them that will match or improve on either's performance (this year) ? Our stocks at VFL level (+ injury list) are extremely low. We should be blooding replacements this season (and a little in the 2nd half of the last) but where are they?

This ☝?

Mid field needs a little extra speed also. Once they lose touch of their opponent and the ball is not in hand we are toast against any inside mids with a bit of intial toe/speed. We have 2 way runners, they are just incapable of any burst speed to catch or run down their opponent once we lose it or guilty of too many getting sucked in to the contest and allowing their direct opponent to sit out and wait for the easy receive and they're off to the races under no pressure! Any opponent is going to look speedy when you overdo the latter. We drew Contested last night and only a couple down vs Port. We did lose considerably vs the Cats by 19. So im not sure we are that far back on contested overall other than the Cats. A more robust public stat as to how your "inside" mid field is travelling IMHO is clearances. We beat Port here by 3 so pretty much a neutral outcome. We won it convincingly against the Cats by 10 (which would make sense as the experts keep telling us the Cats are happy to give up the middle a little and back their ability to rebound off HB). Most scribes say our inside mids dominated theirs on the day. We drew vs Essendrug last night for a neutral outcome. Game arguably lost mostly by poor play down back and possibly the inability of our inside mids to get back quickly and fill spaces/assist. Two way / Tank issue? The difference between this year (so far) and 2018 is when we won clearances convincingly we were winning most matches. In the same game against the Bombers last year, we won the clearance count by 10 and the match by 6 goals. We then got a run on and smashed most teams thereafter winning both contested and clearances substantially. Then we arrive at the big match against another in form team, the Pies in Rnd 12, and lose the clearances badly (-19) while winning contested by 7. To summarise we had the same clearance count last night which means our inside fellas played their part at getting the ball out. But so did the Bombers insiders. So it's what we (and they) did with it after that on the outside IMO that was the difference.

This is also true in terms of the way we play Rjay. Correct the above among other aspects (3 v 1 going up in a marking contest down back...been happening for years ...Goody & Co. Incapable of seeing / correcting this?) and get some genuine outside talent off the wings and HB and away we go. And let me repeat....as I've said so many times....please can we recruit players with a footy brain who know when to go fast or slow (ie; can assess a situation before playing on and giving off to someone who is under pressure already or running straight ahead into congestion) and can also hit targets by foot consistently.