deejammin'

Tough selection this week. Ultimately I think BB comes in for Weed, although at half time I had him in for TMac. TMac seems to play a role the FD respects that has less to do with goals than the Weed/Brown one. Lever for Tomlinson if that ankle/foot is sore. Trac looked a lot less sore this week to me, no strapping on his knee and his explosiveness was back, very unlikely he gets a rest, especially with an 8 day break. Go Dees!

Essendon has 81 662 members, Fremantle has 50342 with 9000 Victorian members, their attendance today of 23935 means 26% of their combined and 29% of Essendon’s membership turned up. Far worse than us. Saint Kilda has 55802 and Gold Coast has 19460 with less than 3000 Victorian members, their attendance of 18724 means 32% of their combined memberships turned up and 33% of St Kilda total membership turned up. Far worse than us, again. The Kangaroos have 46357 the Dogs have 46 441 their attendance of 36162 means 39% of their combined memberships for two Victorian teams. Again, comparable to us, the dogs were the runners up, they also play good football, it doesn’t make a difference, this is the new post-COVID landscape for AFL crowds, not some terrible performance by MFC supporters. I agree this team deserves to play in front of 80000 plus every week, they are that good, but that isn’t reality. The reality is 35% of memberships turnout is solid this year, for all clubs, including the big ones. We have record membership, an undefeated premiership team, a grand finalist womens team, passionate supporters that are the loudest in the AFL, no debt, a well run club and better facilities on the horizon. You can get worked up about crowds that will never happen, not happening, or you can just enjoy the good things and accept the reality of crowds in 2022 being down, regardless of what the quality of footy our excellent team provides, deserves. I had a great time on Saturday, the Dees fans around me were plentiful and loud, I’m not going to get caught up in numbers that don’t exist, I think you shouldn’t either, but that’s your choice.

Carlton has 81,302 members, Port Adelaide has 61 687 members with approximately 12,000 Victorian members (from their 2021 data). Today’s attendance of 33,433 means 35% of Carlton and Ports Victorian combined membership showed up, or if everyone there was a Carlton supporter 41% rocked up. Melbourne has 56,841 members and GWS has 29341 members in 2022 with approximately 6500 Victorian members (from data in 2021). 20791 means 32% of the combined Melbourne and GWS, or 37% if it was all Melbourne supporters, which is far more likely than Carlton Port. It’s very comparable, only disappointing to a degree of 2-3%, not terrible. I’m wide awake, you are asking for 75% of Melbourne’s entire membership to show up, a figure that almost never happens outside finals and huge games, on a public holiday, in the middle of a long weekend, for a night game, post-covid, without walk up tickets, when public transport was out on a number of lines. You my friend are dreaming, but by all means, keep potting your fellow Melbourne supporters.

It’s worth noting that the COVID impact on crowds largely isn’t that people aren’t going out or going to events. It’s that they are prioritising more than ever before. What we’re seeing in the entertainment industry is where people might’ve used to go to three or four small events a week people now are cutting that down to only the one or two things they most want to see, or are willing to risk illness to see. The corresponding impact on AFL games isn’t that diehard supporters or members are not the ones attending, it’s the neutral AFL members who support other clubs that formerly would’ve come to a night game pre-COVID, but no longer want to risk it for a team that’s not theirs. I’d think that is the drop off between the higher numbers vs GWS in previous years.

Pretty similar really, maybe 2-3k more Carlton supporters than us but the difference was Port actually had a cheer squad and supporters there, you could actually hear them as opposed to the pathetic GWS turnout last night. Based on that number if the games were reversed Carlton vs GWS would’ve had 23k and Melb vs Port 31k. I would’ve loved more demons there last night, it’s a really great vibe at our games atm, but the 20k is 100% at the AFL’s feet, their two expansions aren’t working, they have no fans! That’s not on us.

I’m talking about how the reigning premiers started the next season (after their premiership). Geelong were the reigning premier in 2008, having won in 2007 and won the first 8 games, Collingwood 2011 and West Coast 2007 won the first 6-0 as reigning premiers. Ultimately they didn’t win the back to back flag those years, which is a hurdle we will hopefully jump over. But my point was about the record of how rare it is for reigning Premiers to back up the following year and win all the early games. Of all the 33 reigning premiers since 1990 only 6 (including us this year) started the season 4-0 (see my earlier post) now we join an even smaller group of 4 (including us) who went 5-0 or more. Win four more in a row and we have had the best start to a season of any reigning premiership team in the modern AFL era. Impressive stuff!!! As you will note, it doesn’t guarantee a flag, in fact the two teams that won the first 4-0 after their premiership but then lost the fifth game (Hawthorn 2014 and Brisbane 2002) both went back to back, so maybe statistically speaking, we should’ve thrown tonight’s game? Anyway, we’re doing something remarkably special to start this year was my point.

We just joined 3 other premiership teams in the modern AFL era (post 1990) beyond 5-0 Collingwood 6-0 2011 Geelong 8-0 2008 West coast 6-0 2007 Impressive stuff!

Ross Lyon giving advice on winning grand finals, Terry Wallace giving advice on nailing drafts, what a strange media landscape we have…. Anyway, great win! But for 3 incredibly dodgy goals from frees to GWS and Trac’s disallowed goal it was the perfect evening, smashed them all over the ground (with the exception of some clearances), kicked straight to put them at arms length early and then put them away after! Loved it! Loved being there! The complaints about Melbourne supporters not attending are overblown, there were 50 GWS supporters there tops, any other opposition team (except GC) and that’s easily a 30-35k crowd on an Easter weekend night game. It actually compares very well, especially given the suppressed crowd numbers across the comp post Covid. GO DEES!

I’d suggest it’s both. The latter is also an issue for the AFL, there was a comp wide blitz on umpire information sessions and umpires trainings and practise this pre-season to aid with all clubs understanding the rules better. If one club has enough information to manipulate this to an unprecedented extent then it’s on the AFL to provide info to the other 17 clubs on what they’re doing right and everyone else is doing wrong. There were AFL reviews into interstate bias and ‘free kick hawthorn’ champion bias the findings of which were released to every club and the media and which have aided in these issues becoming much more equal than they were. If the bulldogs play the rules better than 17 other teams to the point they earn 10 frees more a game then clarity should be provided to all other 17 teams and supporters to understand how they’re doing it. The rules aren’t meant to be gamed to the advantage of the few, they’re meant to be equal. As for the former, the bulldogs average 3.4 goals from a direct free kick a game, 2 goals higher than the nearest in Geelong. That’s a huge advantage, and many of these frees are just plain wrong, in a way very few other teams receive. Weightman vs Essendon EF and on the quarter time siren against us, those frees literally don’t get paid to anyone else, it’s the bulldogs jumper. There’s no fair play there, they’re just plain wrong. Naughton throws himself forward arms flailing to stage for free kicks, he gets them, Mackay gets a fine for staging. The bulldogs are better treated than any other team by the umpires, I think there should be a review into why. Or maybe we should wait until they hit +15 a game first?

Free kicks don’t win games of football, everything evens out etc. But this dogs thing is an established trend. Over the last ten years before 2019 the dogs were consistently in the top three in the AFL for frees for and differential. The other two were West Coast and Geelong, teams with strong home crowd advantages, large supporter groups, ‘noise of affirmation’ and clear reasons for the advantage. The dogs have none of those. This all went to a whole other level the last two years, they had an average differential of +7 on all other teams in 2021! That’s 7 extra contested marks a game! They get more frees for than the next team (Geelong) by a factor of 6! And give away less by a factor of 4! For what reason? The dogs have no home ground advantage, no Selwood, no clear reason to be so well treated for over a decade. The nice guys thing is just weird. At what point does the AFL look into why one team gets so much better treatment than every other team? It’s pretty weird right?

It would be 2021- MEL 2022- MEL The rest of the list is less interesting.. 👹👹👹

Brown in Weideman out TMac seems to play a role the FD likes, he doesn’t tear games apart or kick loads of goals but his run, contest and pressure seems to make him valuable. He’s also shown a bonus in the early part of this year in that he can swing back. Weid is unlucky, but he plays the same role as BB who is more consistent. I agree Riv looks sore but with 9 days off hopefully he’ll be feeling better.

Since 2001 only 6 out of 22 reigning premiers have started 4-0 (including us): Melbourne 4-0 2022* Hawthorn 4-0 2014 Collingwood 6-0 2011 Geelong 8-0 2008 West coast 6-0 2007 Brisbane 4-0 2002 If we win next week we join only 3 other premiership teams beyond 4-0 Collingwood 6-0 2011 Geelong 8-0 2008 West coast 6-0 2007 Ominously none of those teams won premierships, two made the GF one the SF (WC 2007). Nonetheless we’re in extremely rare air! For all the upset around how we’re playing in the post-game thread it’s worth remembering premierships are rarely won by teams flying in the first 6 rounds, what we did last year is an anomaly. You can’t win a premiership in the first four, but you can lose your shot at it (see Port, Essendon and co). Lets track this record, hopefully we join rare air next week at 5-0 and then we can try to tick off towards the modern record of 8-0 (from a cats team most consider one of the greatest of all time!). Incredible work from our Dees!!!

Great post. i think we clearly work very hard to make our defensive system work, but resting Ed Langdon the last 7 minutes when he usually plays 100% game time, playing Lever for 89% of the match when he also usually plays 95%+ (injury not withstanding), playing both May and Rivers less than 95%, we rested players we never rest. Also, doing nothing to break Trac’s tag, playing safe down the line for most of the last quarter when the game was done. That certainly wasn’t top gear, it’s not disrespectful to our defence, they were excellent, but even they got a rest they don’t get when we’re going for it. There were many things our side could’ve done to ratchet up the game but we chose to take a five goal win with no injuries in the last quarter coming off two 6 day breaks rather than going for broke. I’d call that second gear, sorry.

They’ll lose tonight..Chris Scott to collect Lachie Neale at quarter time. 🤪🤪

Clinical win. It’s a strange feeling after so many years of having to play our best or better to merely win a game to watch us win so comprehensively in second gear. The last Premiership team to go 4-0 to start a season was Hawthorn in 2014, ominous. Win next week and we’ve bettered them, haven’t gone back far enough to find the last premiership team to back up with 5-0. It can’t be underestimated how difficult it is for premiership teams to come back and win after a short break, what we’re doing is remarkable! Sure it’s ugly, we handball our way into trouble and our forward connection needs work, but we’re winning, without our FF, craftiest HB and with a few players looking underdone. Also, like last year, we’ve never been behind in the last quarter, hard to beat us without getting in front when it matters….Just keep winning, save the beautiful stuff for our next finals campaign. Bring on an AFLW Premiership and 5-0!!!! Edit: (I found it, Collingwood went 6-0 to start their 2011 season, that’s our next benchmark).

Mods, close this thread. 25 disposals, 33 Hit outs, 12 Marks, 2 Tackles, 1 goal 1 behind, 13kms run. Star.

Realistically as sad as it is for Salo to be on the sidelines rounds 12-15 is when we need him back for and firing. It’s been a great effort from our backs to play so well so far. With some key troops back over the next three weeks in Lever, Petty and eventually Hibbo (who may struggle to get back in if Smith, Hunt and Tomlinson keep improving) we’re in pretty good shape. Let’s keep the rest healthy and keep winning!

Hard to be anything other than happy with our off-season, feels like Xmas has come early for Demonlanders. Not only did we take the players most mentioned on here as the best options for our picks, (JVR and Howes) but we got both Woey and AMW with AMW coming as a B rookie, the only way we were going to get him after taking 4 other players. Just brilliant list management, and we got more picks to trade or trade up again next year!!! Wow! We also nailed it on need: KP tall JVR tick Quality Midfield depth Dunstan tick Also able to play wing, tick with Howes and Taj Quick developing small forward/wing with great skills AMW tick Lockdown defender Judd McVee tick The final piece is a train on raw ruckman as a category B rookie or in the mid-season draft. It’s really hard to be anything other than impressed this year. Exciting times!!!

Looks like the author reads Demonland, both the Neale Daniher quote and the height have been corrected as noted here, “more” instead of “less” and 6’10. Good work team!!!

Fair enough, I largely agree, Hawthorn were certainly far less of a surprise than the dogs but I do think they were thinking their flag window was 2010ish and remember many officials from the club saying they were surprised to win one in 2008. Geelong being so dominant and such a shoe-in for a flag certainly masked Hawthorn’s very good season. They definitely dropped away badly, but I think there was enough change in their list to see it as different to ours, our GF team can literally walk unchanged into round 1 2022, Hawthorns couldn’t, hopefully that helps. It’s hard to see who the flag contenders next year are for sure, but I’m not sure if that’s due to a lack of them, or a general evenness to the competition. On form we’re far and away the best team, but Dogs, Brisbane, Richmond‘s best is very very good. We’ll need to improve to win the flag, but we’ll start favourites. Exciting!

Firstly, a ‘premiership hangover’ is not making the finals, or being in serious contention in finals, the year after a premiership. Collingwood did not have a flag hangover in 2011, they made the grand final, a grand final they were favourites for, and while hindsight is 20/20 it would’ve been fascinating to see that game play out had it not have had the cloud of the mishandled Buckley handover hanging over it. A one year contract extension for Malthouse before those finals and I think Collingwood win. Bulldogs and Hawthorn did both drop away after their flag years. What do they have in common: 1. They were both surprised, neither were the best team all year, Hawthorn was a young up and coming team that surprised an all conquering and dominant Geelong team at the right time. The Bulldogs were far from the best team during the season, not even top four, got on a run and managed to peak at the right time. 2. Won before they internally expected to. The equivalent for us would’ve been winning in 2018. 3. Relied heavily on a few stars, for Hawthorn Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Crawford and Dew (in the GF) were all huge, for the dogs Stringer, Jj, Bont, Dahlhaus and Easton-wood were massive. It took a few more years for Clarkson to craft the system that won them 3 more flags and Crawford and Dew retired leaving holes in the list and the dogs were found wanting when JJ, Dahlhaus and Stringer had fluctuations in form. The challenge for us is that the league is far tighter than it was back then. You can realistically make an argument for at least 12 teams making the finals next year (Melbourne, Dogs, Brisbane, Cats, Power, Sydney, Giants, Essendon, Richmond, West Coast, St Kilda, Carlton) whereas in 2009 and 17 there were really only 6 legitimate challengers. In terms of a hangover, the good news for us is of the last 21 flags only two teams haven’t made the finals the following year and we are very different to them. We were the best team all year, we lost 4 games by an average of 11.5 points, that’s frighteningly good consistency. We have a great system, star players but also great role players, some great leaders and a lot of younger players looking to improve not to mention a plethora of talent trying to fight their way into the team. We have also been building for a while, we definitely underperformed in 2020, we were ready for finals but our consistency let us down, you could also make the same argument for 2017. Now that our consistency in season is better (our only weakness is still bringing our best for bottom teams) I’d be stunned if we’re not top 4 heading into finals next year. And we’ve shown our brand stacks up in finals, we’re 5-1 in finals under Goodwin, pretty damn good.

Excitingly, the reality is there is serious competition for spots on almost every line, in fact I’d say we only have 10 guaranteed locked in players and beyond that every player has someone talented gunning for their spot. I’m not saying the others will lose their spots, I’d back in our premiership side to keep them if they all continue to work hard and improve, but even slight laziness will lose most of our players their spot to someone hungry. UNDROPPABLE: Gawn, Petracca, Oliver, Langdon, Salem, Lever, May, Pickett, Brayshaw, Jackson Competition: Viney, Harmes, Sparrow vs Jordan, Dunstan, Hibberd, Rivers, Bowey vs Hunt, JSmith, Petty vs Tomlinson Brown, McDonald vs Weideman Spargo, ANB vs Melksham, Chandler, Bedford, Laurie The only position we have no genuine contender, only backup, is ruck, but that’s partly because Gawny is one of, if not the, greatest ruckman of the modern era and Jackson is a freak. Daw would be pushing for selection at many other clubs. Exciting times. In terms of the article I would have Hunt, Tomlinson, Dunstan and Jordan all needing equally as big pre-seasons as Weid. There’s no doubt Sam has a chance to bust into the team, one of my main frustrations of not watching the finals live is that I’m not entirely sure what role TMac was playing in the finals, it felt like he had less impact than earlier in the season, but Brown and Fritsch were able to dominate so it’s possible he was playing a decoy role. Sammy might be gunning for that. My real feeling is that Hunt, Tomlinson, Jordan and Dunstan have more chance of breaking into the team in the pre-season than Sam. Both Brown and McDonald had interrupted pre-seasons last year, Brown through injury and TMac through training early on a wing, if both have good pre-seasons the mix of added fitness, time together, cohesion and confidence should see them improving on last year, a scary thought, but bad for Sam’s prospects. Hard to see us slipping with that many blokes gunning for each others spots.

Yeah, it’s interesting isn’t it? Maybe it’s about him having backloaded the contract and being on Rookie money this year with the bulk of his new contract in 2023 when he’s upgraded to the senior list? From a list spots perspective it’s largely academic 3-4 main list + 0-1 A rookie vs 2-3 main list + 0-2 A rookies. There seems to be some clever rookie contract money at play otherwise I’d have thought he would be elevated this year. I’d imagine if we have any long term injuries or intend to pick someone up in the mid season draft he may be elevated during 2022 like JJ was this year. The only other really strong reason to keep him on the rookie list this year would be if we intend to use all 4 draft picks or Delisted FA for main list spots, which would be exciting.

Right, thanks for that, I forgot about the discount we get on points for an NGA hence why I thought we’d chew up all three of our picks. On upgrading rookies though, so you don’t need to use a pick to do it but it counts towards your mandatory 3 picks in the draft? From the AFL details on rookies for 2022: ”Meanwhile, clubs have been told they will have to again select a minimum of three players at the NAB AFL Draft after last year only needing to take one because of list reductions. The three live picks can include promoted rookies (before or after the national draft), national draft picks and pre-season draft selections.” Thats new, but good, I was wondering where all those old picks in the 100s had disappeared to.