deejammin'

It’s also important to note the ladder can be quite distorted after 6 weeks depending on who’s played whom, injuries etc. Even last year, a year where the ladder stayed relatively stable, Brisbane were 8th in round 6 having just made their way back into the 8 after early season losses, Freo were 6th, Richmond were 7th, Essendon 12th, GWS 13th, Bulldogs first. In fact no team actually sat where they finished the season inside the eight. The four changed by one team, the eight by two. I would argue this year is even tighter than last, there’s about 6 teams outside the eight that with luck with injuries and hitting their best form could make it. There’s also a number of teams who are vulnerable, Carlton, Hawthorn, Collingwood etc. Also, Melbourne has literally beaten every team in the league except Collingwood over the last year, touching up GWS means the only teams we aren’t currently reigning victors against in the last game are Hawthorn (draw) and Collingwood (please, please beat them this year!). Our early season run is like gold, it’s possible every other place within the eight could change again, with the possible exception of us and the Roos every team looks like they could be upset or upset any other any given week. If we can lock away a 3-game break inside the four over the next three weeks we can just sit back and watch the dogfight, it’s going to be epic!

And he played the first 6 games of 2021 in the twos working on his game and then took his chance when Tomlinson (who was in career best form and had cemented his place in the side) went down with his ACL. Joel is a handy player with many great attributes, but right now he gives away more easy goals and makes more suspect decisions than our best 3 KPD. It’s nothing personal, it’s not whipping boy stuff, but the mistakes he made this weekend made it easy to replace him with Lever, if he wanted to put genuine pressure on Petty/Lever/May/Rivers/Hunt then he needed not to Handball the ball straight to the opposition full forward 30 metres out for no apparent reason…

I certainly hope so. I’m not shouting the font changed when I quoted stats, sorry for that. Last year is the quintessential example of why it’s unlikely Clarry will win. MFC had an all time team record for Brownlow votes with 96; Clayton Oliver - 31, Christian Petracca - 23 Max Gawn - 16, Tom McDonald - 8 Jake Lever - 5, Jack Viney - 3 Luke Jackson - 3, Bailey Fritsch - 3 Kysaiah Pickett - 2, Steven May - 1 Christian Salem - 1 Port had 91: Ollie Wines - 36, Travis Boak - 25 Karl Amon - 11, Aliir Aliir - 7 Dan Houston - 5, Charlie Dixon - 3 Connor Rozee - 1, Zak Butters - 1 Mitch Georgiades - 1, Robbie Gray - 1 Only two Port players got 3 votes for a game to take votes off Wines, that was Boak five times and Amon once. Every other time they won Wines got three, there was no competition for him. Melbourne on the other hand had multiple 3s for Trac (5), Gawn (3) Jackson(1). All taking votes off Oliver which cost him the award. They also got more twos and pushed Oliver down to one or none (Lever x2, McDonald x3, Gawn x2, Trac x3) Oliver and Trac were both better than Wines last year, as was Bont, they were all hurt by playing in deeper teams. It’s still a great honour to win a Brownlow, Wines had a great season but the award is flawed in that it doesn’t represent the best players in the competition as effectively any time your teammates play well, you get punished, even if your overall performance was clearly leagues best. If I had to guess, Rnds 1 Trac, Rnd 2 Trac or Jackson gets 3, Rnd 3 Oliver gets 3, 4 Gawn gets 3, 5 Oliver or Trac, 6 Oliver. Oliver is going well but A Brayshaw, Cripps and Steele will top their teams votes in every game and would probably be beating him right now, only because he plays for a better, deeper team.

Interesting manipulation of the facts there. The game changes so quickly all the players you list played over a decade ago, a different era for football and the award, in the last ten years only one premier has won the Brownlow, Dustin Martin in 2017, the one exception to the trend I argue 100% stacks up. Sam Mitchell shared the Brownlow in a GF losing side with Trent Cotchin who did not make finals, 3!made prelims, one elimination final and four more missed finals entirely, the clear majority. I would argue only three times in the past decade the Brownlow represented the best player in a great team, Martin, Dangerfield and Mitchell, 8.5 other times the best teams took votes off each other and a good/great player from a lowly side won it. Here’s the facts: 2021 Ollie Wines Prelim loss 2020 Lachie Neale prelim loss 2019 Nathan Fyfe Did not make finals 2018 Tom Mitchell Elimination final loss 2017 Dustin Martin GF winner and Norm Smith medalist 2016 Dangerfield Prelim final loss 2015 Nat Fyfe did not play finals 2014 Matt Priddis did not play finals 2013 Gary Ablett Jnr Did not play finals 2012 Sam Mitchell (GF loss) Trent Cotchin did not play finals Next time you want to lecture someone on the facts try using relevant, recent stats not relics of a bygone football era.

Makes finishing top two all the more important. Freo, Sydney and Brisbane potentially rounding out top 4 all of a sudden a home final means so much more.

Why isn’t CJ playing for the hawks in this game? COVID? Injured? I missed that.

Also why does Brereton commentate Hawks games? He’s painful at the best of times but extra painful in Hawthorn games.

Geez the Hawks are snipers. I hope we can belt them early so we can protect our players from dangerous hits to the head.

Sorry mate, Hawthorn lost to Geelong in round 5 in 2014 (Geelong 15.16.106 def Hawthorn 12.15.87). The last reigning premiership team to go 6-0 to start a season was Collingwood in 2011, they lost round 7. Only 3 reigning premiership teams apart from us have started 6-0 in the modern afl era (post 1990). Collingwood 2011 (lost at 6-0), Geelong 2008 (8-0) and West Coast 2007 (6-0), ominously none went back to back so if we do better than them next week we’ll hopefully become the first premiership team to start 6-0 + and win a back to back premiership. I’ve covered all this in the records we can be proud of thread. Edit: if you are referring to the Hawks of 2013 they weren’t the reigning premiers that year, Sydney were.

No, May’s handball was smothered in a good pressure act from a Richmond player. Smith handballed the ball straight to Lynch when he had multiple options and time to kick. Joel does some good things but also has some panicked moments and costs goals. He is replaced by the reigning AA back in Lever, as many have said he’d be playing regular footy at a lesser team, but compared to May, Petty and Lever he’s not there yet and goes out.

Ins: Lever, Viney Outs: Smith, Bedford (Dunstan to sub) Its easy to underestimate how good we’ve been without Lever these first 4/6 weeks. The conventional wisdom last year was that if you can stop Lever, either by making him accountable with a dangerous forward, or by tagging him (see Schache in the GF) then you go a long way to stopping MFC. Smith and Tomlinson have battled manfully to cover him but the reality is with Petty going to a whole new level this year they will be replaced by Lever anytime the three (Lever, May, Petty) are available. Dunstan very stiff but Viney has been exceptional this year, has added great ball use and goal kicking to his incredible contested stuff and while Dunstan was good Viney’s exceptional tackling puts the fear of god in our opposition in a way few players do. May has a corkie, but given he can play with half a hamstring I’d hate the be the medical staffer who tried to get him to have a week off. Interested in what happened to Harmes, hope he’s ok, if he’s hurt some kind of reshuffle with Dunstan staying in is the go. Rivers looks sore/out of form, with Brayshaw absolutely starting at HB I wonder if a move to the wing/midfield beckons for Riv in the future. His kicking through the middle would be an absolute asset and getting some touches might help his confidence. Only if Harmes is injured or JJ dropped off though. What a great dilemma to have.

I think you need to take Goody’s press conferences with a grain of salt. He’s honest but there’s no way he comes out and pots a confidence player like Smith after an easy win. Smith had some shockers tonight, coughed up the handball for Lynch’s goal, missed easy targets for terrible turnovers and repeatedly jumped into Gawny, May, Rivers and Petty when they had the mark covered. He’s an able backup and has some nice attributes, but he’s out for Lever as sure as day follows night. Brownlows go to the best player in a team with very few or no other great players. Do you honestly believe Wines was better than Clarry, Trac, Bont and co last year? No, he only had a Boak competing with him for votes so every time they won he got 2 or 3. Clarry is competing with Trac, Gawn, May, Jackson, Langdon for votes. He gets three tonight but each of the others takes 3 off him all of the previous 5 rounds. The problem with the Brownlow is it’s the antithesis of good footy. It rewards one-man teams, whereas a strong, unselfish team(although we went away from that up front last night) takes votes off each other, splitting it so none of them win. It’s a dumb award. All in all last night was frustrating, there was the obvious, the goalkicking, but also our field kicking was off, we kept hand balling one too many times into pressure, kicking forward to no-one, fumbling, dropping the ball, turning it over in our back half, all of it was very uncharacteristic. The good is we still won and would’ve won by a huge margin but for ANB x2 easy set shots, Spargo missing a snap he’d kick 99/100, Fritsch and Ed shanking lockable ones, Petracca, Harmes and Kozzie going for glory when there was a simple pass, BBB missing set shots he usually kicks. The bad was that was our worst performance this year, but we still won. The ugly was Lynch’s gimme goal for HTM that should’ve been HTB, he tried to kick in a tackle and missed, the same decision had already been accurately given 3 times to that point but then the umps had a mare and the HTB decisions disappeared from then on, sometimes to our advantage, sometimes not, how does Bowey not get HTB for his brilliant tackle? Time to turn is prior!!! On to next week, hopefully we’ve got our kicking boots on, I’m hoping we can end this mini Hawks resurgence and get back to having the media can Kennett and Mitchell for last years trade period and the Clarkson debacle.

Both in the first quarter! First ten minutes the former last ten, the latter. 😬😬

Interesting. Selection is tough at the moment. Tomlinson vs Smith is tough but clearly Smith is a little ahead for the FD at the moment. His marking has been better than Thommo and his athleticism makes him more versatile. TMac vs Brown vs Weid has finally changed. It’s very interesting to see the Weid /Brown combination, this is the one we’ve seen the least of with Tommy keeping his spot all of last year. I think it could work, Weid is a good athlete, clunks marks and generally plays better when not the number 1 target, Brown plays his best running long leading patterns and taking the number 1 defender. I hope they both have a day out. Tommy is stiff but he hasn’t turned it on yet this year. Dunstan is coming in for the exact reason he was brought to the club, one of our contested beasts goes down, he comes in. If he plays his role we’ll be fine, he doesn’t need to be Viney (who has been in career best form) he just needs to play his role at stoppage and get the ball to Clarry, Trac, Ed and co. If he brings his best it could put more pressure on some of the younger mids when Viney comes back as his best is very good. Should be interesting. Please [censored] those Tigers! Go Dees!

Exactly. After so much arm wringing about protecting umpires at lower leagues they will now have to deal with countless young footballers flopping around for frees or kicking each other with studs. If the AFL has such a direct impact on the lower leagues as the dissent rule is currently claiming then surely we need to stamp out violence and unsportsmanlike behaviour in the AFL also?

Unbelievable! Harry Mackay’s (deserved a fine) but was so much milder than that! Trent Cotchin has also gotten away with intentionally kicking Taylor Walker with the studs of his boots. Taylor Walker was on radio saying if he or Toby Greene did that it would be 4 weeks but for Trent ‘protected species’ Cotchin it’s only a fine. The MRP is a joke, a protectionist, uneven, totally unfair joke.

Bloody Adelaide, a clean sweep would’ve been even better. I hope Port pilfers their entire list so they can experience an iota of what Victorian AFLW clubs have. A Victorian club making the grand final with access to 1/8 of the states talent (soon to be 1/10 in a comp where players rarely move interstate) is remarkable compared to Adelaide having 100% of a football state. If the AFL were serious about an even AFLW comp they would’ve brought Port, WC and to a lesser extent Sydney in before expanding all the Vic clubs, but they never do the logical fair thing for AFLW unfortunately. Anyway rant over, remarkable year for the club nonetheless.

Tough selection this week. Ultimately I think BB comes in for Weed, although at half time I had him in for TMac. TMac seems to play a role the FD respects that has less to do with goals than the Weed/Brown one. Lever for Tomlinson if that ankle/foot is sore. Trac looked a lot less sore this week to me, no strapping on his knee and his explosiveness was back, very unlikely he gets a rest, especially with an 8 day break. Go Dees!

Essendon has 81 662 members, Fremantle has 50342 with 9000 Victorian members, their attendance today of 23935 means 26% of their combined and 29% of Essendon’s membership turned up. Far worse than us. Saint Kilda has 55802 and Gold Coast has 19460 with less than 3000 Victorian members, their attendance of 18724 means 32% of their combined memberships turned up and 33% of St Kilda total membership turned up. Far worse than us, again. The Kangaroos have 46357 the Dogs have 46 441 their attendance of 36162 means 39% of their combined memberships for two Victorian teams. Again, comparable to us, the dogs were the runners up, they also play good football, it doesn’t make a difference, this is the new post-COVID landscape for AFL crowds, not some terrible performance by MFC supporters. I agree this team deserves to play in front of 80000 plus every week, they are that good, but that isn’t reality. The reality is 35% of memberships turnout is solid this year, for all clubs, including the big ones. We have record membership, an undefeated premiership team, a grand finalist womens team, passionate supporters that are the loudest in the AFL, no debt, a well run club and better facilities on the horizon. You can get worked up about crowds that will never happen, not happening, or you can just enjoy the good things and accept the reality of crowds in 2022 being down, regardless of what the quality of footy our excellent team provides, deserves. I had a great time on Saturday, the Dees fans around me were plentiful and loud, I’m not going to get caught up in numbers that don’t exist, I think you shouldn’t either, but that’s your choice.

Carlton has 81,302 members, Port Adelaide has 61 687 members with approximately 12,000 Victorian members (from their 2021 data). Today’s attendance of 33,433 means 35% of Carlton and Ports Victorian combined membership showed up, or if everyone there was a Carlton supporter 41% rocked up. Melbourne has 56,841 members and GWS has 29341 members in 2022 with approximately 6500 Victorian members (from data in 2021). 20791 means 32% of the combined Melbourne and GWS, or 37% if it was all Melbourne supporters, which is far more likely than Carlton Port. It’s very comparable, only disappointing to a degree of 2-3%, not terrible. I’m wide awake, you are asking for 75% of Melbourne’s entire membership to show up, a figure that almost never happens outside finals and huge games, on a public holiday, in the middle of a long weekend, for a night game, post-covid, without walk up tickets, when public transport was out on a number of lines. You my friend are dreaming, but by all means, keep potting your fellow Melbourne supporters.

It’s worth noting that the COVID impact on crowds largely isn’t that people aren’t going out or going to events. It’s that they are prioritising more than ever before. What we’re seeing in the entertainment industry is where people might’ve used to go to three or four small events a week people now are cutting that down to only the one or two things they most want to see, or are willing to risk illness to see. The corresponding impact on AFL games isn’t that diehard supporters or members are not the ones attending, it’s the neutral AFL members who support other clubs that formerly would’ve come to a night game pre-COVID, but no longer want to risk it for a team that’s not theirs. I’d think that is the drop off between the higher numbers vs GWS in previous years.

Pretty similar really, maybe 2-3k more Carlton supporters than us but the difference was Port actually had a cheer squad and supporters there, you could actually hear them as opposed to the pathetic GWS turnout last night. Based on that number if the games were reversed Carlton vs GWS would’ve had 23k and Melb vs Port 31k. I would’ve loved more demons there last night, it’s a really great vibe at our games atm, but the 20k is 100% at the AFL’s feet, their two expansions aren’t working, they have no fans! That’s not on us.

I’m talking about how the reigning premiers started the next season (after their premiership). Geelong were the reigning premier in 2008, having won in 2007 and won the first 8 games, Collingwood 2011 and West Coast 2007 won the first 6-0 as reigning premiers. Ultimately they didn’t win the back to back flag those years, which is a hurdle we will hopefully jump over. But my point was about the record of how rare it is for reigning Premiers to back up the following year and win all the early games. Of all the 33 reigning premiers since 1990 only 6 (including us this year) started the season 4-0 (see my earlier post) now we join an even smaller group of 4 (including us) who went 5-0 or more. Win four more in a row and we have had the best start to a season of any reigning premiership team in the modern AFL era. Impressive stuff!!! As you will note, it doesn’t guarantee a flag, in fact the two teams that won the first 4-0 after their premiership but then lost the fifth game (Hawthorn 2014 and Brisbane 2002) both went back to back, so maybe statistically speaking, we should’ve thrown tonight’s game? Anyway, we’re doing something remarkably special to start this year was my point.

We just joined 3 other premiership teams in the modern AFL era (post 1990) beyond 5-0 Collingwood 6-0 2011 Geelong 8-0 2008 West coast 6-0 2007 Impressive stuff!

Ross Lyon giving advice on winning grand finals, Terry Wallace giving advice on nailing drafts, what a strange media landscape we have…. Anyway, great win! But for 3 incredibly dodgy goals from frees to GWS and Trac’s disallowed goal it was the perfect evening, smashed them all over the ground (with the exception of some clearances), kicked straight to put them at arms length early and then put them away after! Loved it! Loved being there! The complaints about Melbourne supporters not attending are overblown, there were 50 GWS supporters there tops, any other opposition team (except GC) and that’s easily a 30-35k crowd on an Easter weekend night game. It actually compares very well, especially given the suppressed crowd numbers across the comp post Covid. GO DEES!