deejammin'

At this stage we have 7 more games against teams currently below us on the ladder. Winning 10+ games already requires us winning all of those games and getting an upset. We've missed two golden chances to get ahead of the comp for the rest of the season. Id consider improvement 8+ wins, but at this stage we'll need some incredible performances to get that, especially given that teams like Freo, Port and Saints won't roll over for us, and we've already shown how we perform with expectation and favourites status. We may have blown a legitimate chance at improvement and even finals with deplorable showings against the saints and drug cheats and we have every right to be frustrated. I hope the players are...

It's also worth noting we are still yet to beat a team we didn't beat last year. Obviously we must do this to improve and with a few teams below us improving there's still no guarantee we win more games than 2015 with the form we've shown. Both chances to change that we've blown, and blown badly.

Long time between posts for me. Been enjoying demonland from the sidelines. I am overall positive about the direction our club is heading and the talent we have on our list. I think if we are able to retain our key talent we should enjoy a very successful period. However, while I am calm and acknowledge that young teams will be inconsistent, I am extremely frustrated that after 3 years of Roos this team still fails to do the basics well, and by that I mean perform well against teams we should beat. In fact we have turned in our worst possible form on both occasions this season, as we did last season. And worryingly it seems to come as much from the coaches box as the players. The quality of teams is always hard to gauge at this stage of our year. But looking back on our opening six rounds I think we have had a draw that should have us 4-2. 3-3 is not bad, and it shows improvement, but 4-2 would've set us up to definitely improve this season with a "softer draw" our first 6 rounds. Essendon and Saint Kilda are bottom four - six sides . They will finish there and for us to fail to beat both of them is an endictment on this group. Collingwood and Richmond have also dropped to bottom 8 sides. They were great wins but expected. Our performances against North and GWS were great as I believe they are top 6 sides and we were lucky to get a win. The problem with this group last year and this year is that we turned in our worst in winnable games. I'm happy with the overall direction but beat one or both of the Saints and Essendon and you not only set up our team for a strong tilt at finals but also put both other clubs under extreme pressure which will in turn will help the MFC. You cannot build a period of success without putting away the bottom sides. This club needs to learn to win as favourites and until we do consistently we cannot claim meaningful improvement. We should keep calm but it is cause for concern that in games where we were clear favourites against sub-par sides we are 0-2 after performing similarly (Carlton, Essendon, Saintsx2) last year.

Sounds like yet another player blaming everyone else for their own results. No one wanted Sam Blease to succeed more than the MFC and burning bridges and blaming everyone else on the way out is not very mature behaviour. No one has had more control over the performance of MFC than the players and yet every one when departing has spouted the same "I want success, I'd be a star if I wasn't at Melbourne" rubbish. The proof has been in the pudding with Gysberts, Sylvia, Moloney, Petterd, Morton, Bennell ect after they left. I'm usually sad to see players go but in this case I think young Sam has it a@& backwards. No one had more control over Sams two way running this year than Sam and yet he failed to perform under a coach famous for getting the best out of all his players. I wish him all the best but if he thinks that B Scott and the cats are going to tell him he's perfect and his football club is to blame he's in for a sudden shock!

Taylor Hunt?

No worries WYL. We'll both see how he goes at the Hawks. I hope we trade well, but I'm not happy with the FA system, and without it I think our club would've retained key players and would be better off. We are currently 2nd last and lost two of the most valuable players on our list when we were already struggling for KPPs. I'm usually very optimistic but it seems to me the odds are stacked against us.

We need: Quality mids At least One KPF At least one KPD A running half back

Lol, yeah and with a terrible attitude he led the team for marks, came 2nd in our goal kicking despite playing full back in at least 5 games, played 21 games and had the support of Paul Roos and came top 10 in the best and fairest. He made some mistakes but given he played an unfamiliar role for most of the season he was one of our better players. If he did have a negative attitude this year then I fear what he can do at Hawthorn even more!I understand trying to see the silver lining in losing our players but this is a poor result for the club and an indictment on free agency.

Also Pennant Spagher played a hell of a lot better than Garland this year and is far more handy up forward than Garland. Dunn is not as big as either Schoenmakers and Spangher are both bigger than Dunn and are far better for providing a contest which is their role. I'm not saying they'd look at MFC as what we need is a FB and a FF like Frawley and Clark not a role player. But I think you grossly underestimate them and overrate our back line. TMac and Dunn had great years but beyond them we are very thin.

Rpfc and Pennant you both have short memories. We have a dearth of quality KPPs. It is one of the key reasons we lost to the Saints and GWS early in the season. Our midfield improved this season, it's not great but it improved the reason we continued to lose was a lack of tall forwards and this is why Frawley was pushed forward. It had nothing to do with having an allegedly strong back line. Had Clark and Hogan been fit as we expected pre-season Frawley would have been full back and Garland and Dunn would have played slightly different roles. Hawthorn just won a flag on the back of its depth currently it's KPPs line up like this: Rough head, Hale, Gunston, Schoenmakers, Lake, Gibson, Frawley, Spangher, with rucks like Segler and Macevoy capable of playing KP during a chopout and Grimley and Lowdon in the wings. Our KPP have injury concerns and a lack of quality. One long term injury can see our already weakened Forward and Backline turning to guys like Pedo and Fitzy playing key roles. Frawley is light years ahead of them: Dawes (susp rnd 1), Hogan (missed a year of footy, yet to play a game), Pedo (improved but not capable of carrying a key post), Fitzy, McDonald (suspect kick), Dunn (not big enough for most FF), Garland (better playing small), Jamar, Gawn, Spencer, King A long term injury to TMac and we don't win a game, we desperately need Frawley!

Sorry Rpfc I love your contributions round here but I strongly disagree. Our back line functioned so well without Frawley that we came second last and lost 18 games including a 10 goal loss to GWS. Frawley was key I all of our wins and performed exceptionally well when he went back against North and Petrie in round 23. MFC needs a stable high quality player more than a speculative one right now. Hawthorn hasn't stuffed up a trade in years. If they need Frawley with Lake, Gibson, Spangher, Stratton and Schoenmakers we definately need him with Dunn, Garland and McDonald.

The likelihood we won't know for years if pick 3 is worth it is why it is a bad deal. MFC needs big bodied KPP players with experience now, with pick 3 we can trade for developing young players or draft an even younger player. By the time MFC benefits from this pick clubs like Hawthorn (who are already 70 points ahead of us while we had Frawley and they didn't) will have had time to remain ahead by nicking struggling clubs best players in their prime for success. Right now we are well behind most clubs, with Frawley gone we are further behind and unlikely to catch up on the back of pick. PS Vince for Sylvia is the only deal we are ahead on. Rivers is the no.3 defender in the comp statistically for the cats while Kent is coming on but hasn't set the world on fire. Moloney helped Brisbane smash us a few times and has enabled their equally young midfield to develop well ahead of ours while Byrnes was a total bust. MFC is well behind on free agency as the player driven system favours the top clubs. Believe it as it's only getting worse when Dangerfield goes to a top 4 team next year for nothing.

Actually front ending contracts is part of the reason Frawley found it so easy to leave as had we not front ended his contract he would have been a RFA and Melbourne could have matched what was an entirely match able offer.I have said my piece above and agree that the problem is not confined to free agency but FA is definately making things worse not better. Also what we are paying our players is only relevant as far as the rule that makes teams pay 90+% of the cap needs to be revised. Given players get to choose where to go MFC don't even get to the stage where we discuss money as almost every desirable player has flatly refused to entertain coming to MFC, if the clubs chose where players go we may get a look in with our higher draft picks and our cap space however as long as players choose and they can go get an easy premiership for a little less money we will have no chance. Sad, inequitable, broken but true. We cannot "wait until we have a better list" as if the current trends continue we have no reason to believe we will get one, no matter how good and clever our management are

3 teams have won the last 8 of 10 premierships. These three teams have all picked up great players in free agency and are odds on to be top 4 again next year with one of the three more likely than the rest of the comp to win again next year. Given that three clubs have 9 of the last 10 championships in the EPL I would say we already have the EPL like farce competition we all feared. Free Agency is not the only reason we have this situation as it has been a slow degradation of the two lone bastions of equalisation in the AFL "competition". The salary cap and the draft. The AFL is already heinously inequitable when it comes to fixturing, blockbusters, match revenue, access to profitable time slots, football department spending, facilities and ability to have access to and affect decisions by chief AFL officials, but all these issues aside player movement is being degraded by 5 key factors: 1. The erosion of player loyalty and media acceptance of the most traitorous behaviour by players. 2. The ability of players to choose their destination in trades and FA. This has ruined the desired impact of the salary cap as low clubs who should be able to offer more lucrative contracts often don't even get to have a discussion with highly desired players. Also it has effected the draft as the system was meant to mean that the lowest finishing clubs either gain the best youngster with their draft pick or have the best pick to offer in a trade. Given that players don't field offers from the entire comp it means lower clubs can't use the low draft pick to bid on the best players, also it means clubs don't get the best available deal for the player, particularly if the player chooses a top team. This plays out in the Clark example where if the MFC could trade him to any club it could field offers from clubs like St Kilda and WB who can offer far better picks than his chosen club the cats where the demons are greatly limited in what deal they can strike due to the cats relatively low picks and advantage given melbourne can't meaningfully threaten not to deal with the cats. At the very least Melbourne could drive up Clarksville value by fielding other offers and force the cats to give up something of real value making it a more even competition, not just for the dees but for everyone, however this isn't an option as players choose their destination! 3. Draft picks ain't what they use to be. The increase in player movement has made high draft picks far less valuable. Given that if you have a player from ages 18-25 you are far less likely to see their best football especially given that the clubs receiving them usually are already vulnerable. Clubs are better off waiting and gaining players in their 25-29 yo prime via free agency or the aforementioned rigged trade system. This is why with both pick 1&2 on the trade table this year neither team will receive a tier 1 player as a trade. 4. Players are taking less lucrative contracts for success. Now that has happened with members of a team taking cuts to stay together (which ultimately negatively effects the salary cap mechanism) I think most footy fans are ok with this. But players are now moving clubs for less money to play in successful teams it is hurting those teams that happened to have the bad luck to be unsuccessful in this era more than ever before and has effectively made the equalisation effect of the salary cap non existent. 5. Finally free agency. Not only can top clubs now have the advantage of a rigged trade system ( one where clubs cannot even threaten to send a player to the draft due to the Luke Ball saga!) but they can grab the best players from any club in their prime for nothing. Mfc has lost one required player to a top 4 team every year that this system has existed and has gained discarded players who were likely to be delisted anyway and devalued draft picks in return. Not only does this make the teams that gain these players stronger making it near impossible for teams like melbourne to beat them given they had most likely lost to them in the year proceeding already but the loss of these players hurts melbourne more than most other clubs due to its already relatively small number of high quality players. Needless to say 3 clubs 8 premierships ten years likely to become 3 clubs 9 premierships 11 years. A competition where only 3-5 clubs can win every year while the other 13 get worse is no competition at all. If Nathan Jones leaves MFC next year, or Dangefield goes to the swans, cats or hawks or any of the other bull@&$) scenarios likely to play out under this rigged system then I, someone who has loved AFL all my life and is a 26 year member of the demons will be turning my back on the sport. I thought Australia was about the fair go, obviously not.

If Frawley does get up to play it will be the first time the demonland banner have all played together...exciting!

I can see us being 1-4, but 0-5 I would be very dissapointed... I really can't see why the writers at the Hun think the Saints will be so capable. They were not very good last year (admittedly better than us) and have since lost a coach, added a first time senior coach months after every other team alledgedly as a result of serious issues in the senior playing group. This has left them a full two months behind every other club in planning and adding Richardson when he had no input on their drafting strategy and trade period. They have lost two quality and experienced players as trades in MacEvoy and Dal Santo and replaced them with young kids and a fringe players in Savage and Delaney. Had Milne, Koshitsche and Blake retire and replaced them with kids. They have the bulk of senior responsibilities in the midfield carried by Lenny Hayes (who is getting on) and Leigh Montagna who won't play in round one. Their ruck stocks are young and inexperienced, their backline looks thin and is largely carried by Fisher who is getting on and Gilbert who is enigmatic at best. Their forward line is completely reliant on Reiwolt, who rarely dominates against us. With guys like Lee and Maister backing him up, which is hardly a scary proposition, especially if our three KPB's play well. As for the mids while Jack Steven is a quality player with the loss of Dal Santo he will now face hard tags and may not have the same impact as last year. While Hayes, Armitage, Jones, and co. are probably a better unit than our mids it is a contest we should be able to break even in and if this happens with a superior backline and forwardline this is a very winnable contest. I think St Kilda are in big trouble this year, injuries to Hayes and Reiwolt will see them struggling to win any games. This is our most winnable game of the year and even with the Etihad curse I don't think the Saints have the cattle, or have had the time for their coach to properly instigate a game plan and repore with the players to win. I've been wrong before but I see this as our best chance and can't understand how the Hun sees them winning two of the first 5.

Thats a quality lineup, Daniel Cross listed as back pocket though? Also you don't think we'd be a bit too tall with Fitzy + 3 tall forwards? I'd love to see this work but clearly those would be the two biggest concerns.

Hi Deeman, wish you'd put these all in one post so I could reply a little more easily but here goes. For a start Viv Michie may very well be a great mid for us and be in the top 5 at our club, but at this stage he has barely played any AFL and I thought it would be disrespectful to a number of our players, including the soon to be added Cross to rate him in the top five. I have no doubt the club would eventually be hoping that Cross will be a mentor to not only Viv but also Trengove, Toumpas and co. and that hopefully they will go past him rapidly, but on last years form and accumlated form accross their careers at least 4 of the five I listed deserve to be rated as such. Tyson I put in as we need him to be top 5 immediately and clearly the club thinks he will be having traded some quality picks for him. Which midfields do you feel our top five are better than? I hope you are right and I am very excited about next year but I don't see our top five clearly beating any of those I listed. We are clearly better than last year, and to win games we will be hoping our mids can get close to breaking even so we can rely on a strong backline and potent forward line to get us across the line. I don't see our mids as clearly ahead of anyone at this stage, with some improvement from Trengove, Toumpas, McKensie, Evans, M Jones and co and some quality coaching we may have the depth to go past some by the end of next year. Mayne rotates through the midfield occasionally, although with Ross Lyons setup it can be hard to tell who is playing where. Also I did this off the top of my head and said at the top of my post some would dissagree. Clearly I forgot Hill, but Pearce, Sylvia or a number of others could be there, Freo's mids are clearly better than ours with just their top 4! Jack Martin is yet to play a game, he probably will be, but as I said above I am trying to be honest about exposed form, Tyson is my one exception (because if I left him out posters like you would be lecturing me on what a star he was). Prestia is a good midfielder, to be honest you are right he should be there, I just forgot him, sorry. Edit: Edited my post from above to include Hill and Prestia

In light of some people getting a bit excited about where we may finish next year and also because I have been in a list and chart making mood lately I thought it would be interesting to compare our top 5 mids against the top 5 of all other clubs. Obviously our midfield has been our weakness over the last few years with our spine looking strong this year. But quality midfields win games, particularly in modern footy. There will be dissagreements over who the top 5 at each club are and obviously depth is important, but in thinking about this I think it may reveal just how far back we are coming from. Melbourne: N Jones, B Vince, D Tyson, D Cross, J Viney GWS: C Ward, D Shiel, T Scully, Treloar, Greene St Kilda: Hayes, Montagna, Steven, Armitage, Roberton W Bulldogs: Griffen, Boyd, Cooney, Liberatore, Wallis Brisbane: Rockliff, Rich, Redden, Adcock, Moloney Gold Coast: Ablett, Swallow, O'Meara, Bennell, Prestia Adelaide: Dangerfield, Thompson, Sloane, Douglas, Van Berlo, West Coast: Priddis, Masten, Selwood, Shuey, Gaff North Melbourne: (Harvey?) Wells, Dal Santo, Bastinac, Cunnington, Ziebell, Essendon: Watson, Goddard, Zaharakis, Stanton, Heppell Port Adelaide: Boak, Hartlett, Cornes, Hartlett, Wines Carlton: Judd, Murphy, Gibbs, Thomas, McClean Richmond: Cotchin, Martin, Deledio, Jackson, Ellis Collingwood: Pendleberry, Swan, Beams, Ball, Sidebottom, Sydney: Hanneberry, Jack, Kennedy, O'Keefe, McVeigh Geelong: Selwood, Bartel, Johnson, Duncan, Kelly Freo: Fyfe, Mundy, Barlow, Crowley, Hill Hawthorn: Mitchell, Lewis, Sewell, Burgoyne, Smith On that list, even if Tyson is a gun I would say we still have the least impressive top line midfielders in the AFL, the rest of our team may be able to make up the difference on a lot of teams and we may bat deeper than some teams but I think this shows we still have a huge amount of work to do in terms of our midfield competing with top 8 teams.

I have to say reading most of these ladders I am suprised how many rate North. I know they are the flavour of the month, but imo they are one injury to Petrie away from a tough season. They have a reasonable backline, a solid, but not star studded midfield and a forward line with alot of average sized blokes with one real KPF. They still rely heavily on Boomer, who is getting on and will eventually have his form slide, Petrie, who is a good KPF but really their only pack splitter, and Lindsay Thomas had a stellar year last year that I doubt he will replicate. They will be in the mix for the 8, but I can see them missing and don't think they are top four material. Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo, Geelong are all still way ahead of North. As for us I will be stoked for 15th, also while I think GWS should stay near the bottom, there is so much talent on their list that any confidence and early season form could see them jumping a few clubs, including us.......

Lost Gained 2013 Hawthorn Lance Franklin, Xavier Ellis Pick 19 Geelong None None Fremantle None Colin Sylvia Sydney None Lance Franklin Richmond Matt White None Collingwood Dale Thomas Pick 11 PA None Matt White Carlton Eddie Betts Dale Thomas Essendon None None North Melbourne None Nick Dal Santo Adelaide None Eddie Betts Brisbane None None West Coast None Xavier Ellis Gold Coast None None Bulldogs None None St Kilda Nick Dal Santo Pick 25 Melbourne Colin Sylvia Pick 23 GWS None None So with the 2nd year all over there it is. Bit too early for trends, but we are yet to see a team in the bottom 5 land a significant free agent despite having more cap room.

I hope you are right, but I was critqueing lists not trying to guess asada penalties. On a lighter note, thank God Mitch Clark is back!!!!!!

I only ask as I think next season is shaping as one of the closest in memory, I think you can write Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo and Geelong down for the 8, but for the other 4 spots there are 10 teams who look like they could do it. I think Saints: Starting a rebuild, losing Dal Santo, Milne, Blake, Koschitske to add to Goddard from last year as well as relying heavily on aging stars like Lenny Hayes look destined for short term pain and are all but certainties to finish bottom 4, if not bottom. GWS: On exposed form seem likely to stay bottom four, but there is a plethora of young talent on their list which only needs an early season win and some confidence to jump out of the bottom four. Their midfield is streets ahead of ours, St Kildas, Bulldogs, Brisbane and co and you would think they have the potential to suprise this year, not to mention a forwardline with Boyd, Patton and Cameron looming. Brisbane: Losing a lot of talent and relying on some older bodies (Jonathan Brown) as well as a coaching change and a board scuffle look all but certain to leave Brisbane in the bottom four. However they still have a midfield that can compete with ours, and could still beat us this year. Bulldogs: Hard to read, seem to still lack KPP and rely heavily on their older players like Boyd, Cooney, Murphy, Gia and Griffin. However their second half of the season was impressive and the likely inclusion of Crameri would help their forwardline immensely. I think they will be bottom four/five. Adelaide: Suffered a hangover from their prelim in 2012 and effectively lost both Tippett and Walker for the season. However they have a strong lineup once Walker is back, some stars in the midfield, a solid ruck in Jacobs and a solid backline. I don't see them plummetting to bottom four, in fact with luck with injuries they would be thinking top 8. WC: Same as Adelaide were cruelled by injuries. Have lost some quality players but still have a solid midfield with great rucks, great KPF in Kennedy and Darling, solid key backs and depth. With some luck with injuries they would be thinking top 8. What I think is while I, like many on the board am really excited and think with all going well we could be a good team next year. I think the problem with this time of year is we lose sight of what other clubs are doing and tend to forget that almost all clubs are improving, with many improving just through better luck with injuries. I think looking pragmatically our list is in the bottom five with St Kilda, Brisbane, WB, and GWS, and although I hope we shoot up the ladder this season I think with some bad luck we are equally as likely to finish below a couple of these teams.

Out of interest given that you have said the bottom 4 won't include us, who will be in the bottom four bub?

B: McDonald,Frawley Terlich HB: Grimes, Garland, Michie C: Watts, Tyson, Toumpas HF: Howe, Clark, Trengove F: Hogan, Dawes, Kent R: Jamar, Jones, Viney IN: Vince, Evans, McKenzie S: Blease E: Dunn, M Jones, Spencer KPF: Clark (BU Ruck), Dawes, Hogan Forward/Mid:Howe, Kent Mids: Tyson, Jones, Viney, Watts, Mckensie, Evans, Trengove, Michie, Toumpas, Blease (Sub) Back/Mid: Grimes, Terlich KPB: Frawley, Garland, McDonald Coaches: Senior: Paul Roos Senior Assistant: On Ice Fwd: ??????????? Mid: George Stone Backs: Jade Rawlings Dev Fwd: B Miller Dev Mid: B Matthews Dev Backs: B Allison I have the lineup but the more relevant bit is the splits into roles. I believe Howe and Kent will play 70/30 Forward with short stints in the Midfield, similarly with Terlich and Grimes I think the vast majority of their time will be as running backs with roles. This leaves us 10 decent players to rotate through our midfield, I think Watts and Toumpas are best suited to the wings due to their speed and skills while I see Tyson, Jones, Viney as our No.1 centre bounce lineup with all in form as it has the most grunt with ball getting ability in order to get the ball out to the runners. It would be interesting to see some other centre bounce structures as I think , Vince, Mckensie, Trengove would not be a bad rotation. i'm backing Jamar to get into some form and make the ruck spot competitive although I wouldn't mind seeing Gawn in there should he be able to gain the tank. Clark and Watts to provide chopouts in the Ruck with Clark to do the rucking in the forward line to keep our ruckman primarily behind the ball. The midfield rotation still isn't great, but its a hell of a lot better than last year in theory, I can't wait to see what this lineup can do, particularly if we keep all our KPPs and main mids on the park for 15 or more games. Also I included the coaches to gain feelings on who is likely, or in the spirit of the thread, ideal, to be our forward coach??? Edit: Forgot Evans, who I rate. To emergency with you M Jones.