speed demon

Playing on a dry ground against a defence-orientated low-scoring team and having selected an extra runner, I’m wondering if we are planning to take the game on more this week (like pre-season, rounds 1-2). Saints will struggle to score 60 points. I think we’ll win.

Nice post @kev martin. I take the view that if a decision doesn’t make sense, it’s most likely because there is information I’m unaware of (rather than the decision-maker is a fool). If we assume selections are purely based on form, recent selections don’t make sense. Thus, I assume other factors are influencing selection. I think Goodwin has a clear view of most of the 22 he wants to take to finals. Thus, Salem and Petty are picked as soon as they’re available. I was surprised Brown played last week (interstate game with forecast rain) but perhaps Goodwin views him similarly - if he’s finally fit then get him back in. @binman’s argument that Spargo’s form dipped due to increase training loads and been managed makes more sense than any alternative argument explaining his form and selection. Agree with @kev martin that Smith and JVR are likely going back to VFL to work on something. I’ve liked what Smith has brought to the forward line but not his opponents intercepting and influencing the outcome. I’ve loved what JVR’s done but think he gets caught behind too often. I’m sure JVR will be back. Short-term risk for longer-term gain - at least that’s what I perceive to be the attitude of the SC. Off topic, really pleased Woewodin is been given a chance. I hope he surprises like Bowey (2021) & McVee (2023).

Agree with all your points @Ungarieboy. Especially like the term “gorward” as an abbreviation of “gorilla forward” (which of course Smith is not)!

I hear what you’re saying. Perhaps we’re not getting value for money right now but it’s too early to judge Grundy’s recruitment. Given his year out, new club and playing ~66% TOG, I think his form has been solid. There’s still a lot of potential to be realised from their combination if they’re both fit.

Once over the shock of a player being dropped after a best-for-the-club performance, I’ve come to like the selections. Always going to be hard to play Tomo, Petty and Smith and in wet conditions it’s unnecessary. If match fit, Petty has to play AFL. He’s the better defender and can play forward. From a small sample size, Smith has shown as much promise as a forward as Petty. Moreover, he has a transformative effect on the forward line with his ability to play tall and small. He must be given more opportunity. This leaves us with the option of swinging Petty forward or back depending on matchups, conditions and how the game is unfolding. I like this flexibility for September.

Agree. I know of elite distance runners who use a 10 day training cycle (rather than the typical but convenience-based 7 days) for similar reasons. Things you can do when you're a full-time athlete.

Given the bye this weekend, I thought I would give this thread a bump and submit a longer post for discussion. @binman previously theorised the three most significant determinants of premiership success – fitness, quality of the list and relative ages, and luck with injury. He also cited coaching as the next most important determinant. I have adapted Binman’s formulation to be: personnel, fitness (incorporating injuries) and method (incorporating coaching). I neologise this three-pronged conceptual framework as ‘the trident’. I use ‘the trident’ as a lens to evaluate our recent past (i.e. 2018-22), present (i.e. mid-2023) and future (July-September 2023). I hope my thoughts are received as contributing to the passionate discussion about the team we love and I promise not to make a habit of such lengthy posts. Many thanks to the great insights of numerous Demonlanders who have shaped my views. TLDR? Just skip to the last two paragraphs. The past In the first half of September 2018 the Dees charged through Geelong and Hawthorn, announcing our re-emergence from our decennium horribilis. We had a core of high-quality mid-fielders (Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw), an attacking method and excellent fitness. In third week of September, our charge ended in an embarrassing collision with a blue and yellow wall precipitating a reality check; our list lacked a spread of premiership-quality players and a method that prevailed deep in September. Steven May was an astute addition to the team ahead of the 2019 season. May would partner with Jack Lever - recruited the season before – and control the opposition’s biggest key forward allowing Lever freedom to play interceptor. Unfortunately, May’s early experience mirrored the club’s more generally for 2019. With half the list afflicted with pre-season injuries - precluding players from optimising their fitness before the season – the year was essentially over before it begun. Ed Langdon’s recruitment prior to 2020 continued the trend of recruiting players to perform specific roles. Goodwin’s use of Langdon in 2020 rejuvenated the role of wingers in the modern game. Darren Burgess, high performance manager, was perhaps the most significant recruitment coming into 2020. That the Dees went from an unfit and injury-afflicted 17th in 2019 to a fit and injury-free premiership in 2021 is perhaps attributable to the application of Burgess’ approach to fitness more than any other factor (link to short article with salient Burgess quotes below). https://www.afl.com.au/news/686425/fitness-guru-reveals-secret-to-dees-incredible-injury-free-run In 2021, our core of high-quality to elite players had expanded to include May, Lever, Salem, Langdon, Fritsch, and were now supported by a stronger cast of role players. Key to this was the emergence of young talent in 2021 (e.g. Luke Jackson, Kysaiah Pickett, Tom Sparrow, Harrison Petty and Trent Rivers). Ben Brown was yet another excellent recruitment, playing a vital role in improving the structure of the forward line. With a list of quality players an in great fitness, Goodwin was able to implement a highly demanding game plan involving two-way running. The attacking flare of 2018 was matched with a whole-of-team defensive press that suffocated the opposition. A footballing syzygy had been achieved; the alignment of quality players, excellent fitness and a unique and comprehensive method yielded a convincing premiership. The focus of 2022 seemed to be to repeat 2021 in fitness, personnel and method. While the record books show we won our first ten games, issues were simmering under the surface. Numerous key players (especially defenders) sustained injuries in the pre- and early season. Many continued to play injured, perhaps as part of the Burgess philosophy of building physical resilience. Frequently we read reports of players who did very little training during the week in order to get up for gameday. As Selwyn Griffith noted in his Demonland interview, during the season players typically only get about 70% of the training load needed to maintain base fitness. Across the course of the season, those players carrying injuries likely had even less training loads and this would have accelerated the erosion of their base fitness. This consequence may not have been realised until the second half of the season. Additionally, we now know many players carried injuries into the finals, injuries that directly impacted on their ability to perform. Issues with our method became particularly evident in the back half of 2022: slow and predictable ball movement from D50, long and high kicks to the pocket in F50. Relatedly, personnel deficits were identified: elite decision-makers and ball users in defence and the mid-field and reliable key forwards (ideally with defensive skills). However, these personnel deficits and method issues were not the primary issue. The most proximal cause of our finals failings was lack of fitness. This is most compellingly evidenced by our team’s repeated deterioration in performance in the third and fourth quarters. In all but one game that we lost, we had led by at least twenty points after half-time. We went from the best fourth quarter team in 2021 to one of the worst in 2022. This pattern of performance degradation is unlikely to be explained by method or personnel alone - whereby we would expect a more evenly distributed level of performance across four quarters. More likely, as a consequence of fatigue, the ability to execute the ideal method was impaired, leading to stagnant offence and porous defence. The present Entering 2023, a key focus needed to be optimising fitness. In this regard, Geelong’s change in approach from 2021 to 2022 serves as an obvious template to emulate. Consequently, we have seen more careful management of players (e.g. Hibberd). Time on ground (TOG) for key players has been reduced. Clearly, this reduces match day fatigue and quicker recovery. I wonder if this also allows for increased training loads on other days in the week. That is, by more evenly distributing training loads across the week, a great total may be achieved, minimising the aerobic fitness losses that occur during the season. At this stage of 2023, our fitness appears back to 2021 levels. We are again the best fourth quarter team. We’ve had a relatively low number of injuries and a near full list available for selection. Salem’s return from injury as his 2021 self – rather than the 2022 shadow – is further indication of a fitness team performing well behind the scenes. There’s been a lot of complaint about the lack of a proper bye and Griffith acknowledged this makes inserting periods of increased training loads into the season harder. I’m sceptical about the magnitude of this problem. Indeed, there may be benefits to our alternative fixture of multiple 9-10 day breaks. Either way, this year we have the benefit of learning from last years’ experience to optimise our mid-season training loads. In sum, the present state of our fitness seems favourable and augurs well. Personnel deficits have partially been addressed. Lachie Hunter adds a second specialist winger to the team and a high-quality ball user. Judd McVee has become the lock-down small defender we’ve needed since Neville Jetta retired and is also superbly skilled. However, the key forward positions are still in flux. Tom McDonald and Ben Brown’s bodies are failing them just as the game is moving past them. JVR is adequately filling one of the key forward positions (and has enormous upside). Petty and/or Smith appear most likely to fill the other post/s. McDonald or Brown would need to re-find their best form to gain selection as the combination of JVR/Petty/Smith is seeming more attractive from the perspective of the forward line as a cohesive unit that is competitive in the air and on the ground. Brody Grundy has been an upgrade on Luke Jackson of 2022. However, we are not yet getting full value for the Gawn and Grundy combination. Grundy’s low TOG (often 68-69%) is interesting. Perhaps after a year out of football with consecutive lower limbs injuries his fitness is below his peak and his gameday load is being carefully managed. We will likely see greater output from Gawn and Grundy in 2024 if both can stay injury free and improve their cohesiveness. I see Gawn as Grundy potential premiership determiners in 2023. Thus far, they’ve been good without being great and so are not attracting a lot of opposition attention. However, if both are fit and Goodwin finds creative ways to exploit their strengths at the business end of the season, they will win games and the opposition will have little time to develop negating strategies. In short, our best 22 in 2023 is superior to our best 22 in 2022. Finally, our method. The past two games have shown we are essentially still working on the same method. The foundation of our game is winning contested ball and whole-of-team defensive press. Recent sightings of the 2023 Demon Press of Death (DPoD – credit @rpfc) has been heart-warming. Adaptations to our offensive play were particularly impressive in the pre-season and early rounds; quicker ball movement, looking to use the corridor and attacking the goals. Expect this to re-emerge as the season unfolds. At times (and particularly against Collingwood) we’ve seen better use of tempo football; go fast and take risks when the options are there, go slow and play the percentages when they are not. Striking the right balance must be incredibly hard to execute and take excellent coaching and much practice. Perfecting this element our game is an area to watch closely. The future A significant limitation of this review is the one-sidedness; clearly there are 17 other teams striving to win a premiership and I lack the knowledge to conduct a similar evaluation of their prospects. Others will offer far greater insight into the opposition and I welcome their comments. Approaching this probabilistically, I estimate a 5% chance of the premiership being one by one of the teams currently outside the top four. Of the top four, Lions have the weakest claim, perhaps a 20% probability. I think we have a stronger claim than Pies and Port (I would say 30% probability) but I’m mindful of my personal biases and conclude the top three each have roughly a 25% chance of premiership success. Our ‘premiership trident’ appears sharp and strong. With the benefit of two extra years of conditioning into much the same personnel, our fitness may be better. With the additions of Hunter and Grundy, natural improvement of Rivers and Sparrow and appearance of McVee our personnel are slightly better than 2021. Our method appears sound…when correctly implemented. Combine our best defence with our best offence and we will finally see the Demons hold the premiership cup held aloft at the MCG in September! (Apologies for the long post – though I did make sure it comes in 100 words less than Binman’s Act 2! Looking forward to Binman’s Act 3 which I will no doubt provide a more nuanced prediction of what will come for the remainder of the H&A season)

Cry me a River(s)?! 😱

I'm also keen on seeing this forward 7 in action but agree it's hard to do so. If all players are available (and Tomo holds his form), I can't find a spot for Swarrow, let alone Jordon, Bowey and Spargo (all who I like for various reasons) if Smith is in the team. In this unlikely event, Smith may be an excellent sub option given his versatility (though I like JJ in this role too). Good times!

Lots of great posts in this thread but this one is my favourite. Convincingly beat the premiership favourites and this is the first post in the postgame thread! Timing is everything in comedy!

Agree. I'd been saying Smith and Tomlinson were playing to keep their spot from Petty. However, Smith has impressed so much with his defensive efforts (especially his desperate chasing & tackling), he's endangering our small forwards.

Goodwin receives excessive criticism on here. I hope some of his critics can appreciates today's masterclass.

Everyone: “Won’t beat CFC if we don’t take our chances.” MFC: “hold my beer!”

Love Smith’s athleticism and intensity. Plays like someone who’s spent a decade trying to make it but been sabotaged by injury and, suddenly, has a chance to be a premiership player…

JVR seems to have the qualities to be a big game player. Going into beast mode in the 4th quarter against RFC has been my season highlight - for the spectacle and the potential it portended. Too much to ask for a repeat performance, but if he can play like he did against CFC, it will go a looong way towards us kicking a competitive score.

Hard to argue Oliver's omission doesn't reduce our chances of winning though obviously those chances have not been reduced to zero. While we are looking for silver linings, it's likely Chandler will get a full game. In a season of experimenting with our forward line structure, I think this is important. The viability of playing a low-scoring 'defensive' forward (i.e. Petty and even more so Smith) correlates to the output of our high-scoring small forwards (i.e. Picket and Chandler). If the set-up against Carlton works, Petty can return as the 2nd key defender. That's probably our best whole-team defensive set up which may be appealing to our "defence first" coach. If Chandler goes cold and Smith (or Petty) are not scoring, Brown becomes a much more attractive option at the expense of F50 defensiveness.

Given our number of quality players in their prime - and thus the difficulty of breaking into the 22 - I would favour trading picks to move up the order. There's always openings for absolute top level talent but I think we'll struggle to give three first rounders the opportunities they need to develop optimally. Shame to have another James Jordon situation of a potential 200 game player limited to being a depth player (noting that JJ was pick 33 and not first round which would be even worse).

Similar to above. I have ticket for M14, row 6, seat 9. Let me know if interested & able. Would be great to know my seat is being filled by a Demonlander.

Fascinating glimpse into the possibilities of analysis using big data and machine learning! A simple take away for those who may not wish to read the article is that "kicking efficiency" is a fundamentally flawed statistic due to the way an efficient kick is define: a kick that goes to a teammate or over 40m to a contest. That means, if May is on the forward 50m arc - with Fritsch alone in the goal square - and sprays the ball wide to a contest between Mason Cox and Spargo, while MFC supporter's head's will explode the statisticians dutifully record an effective kick. A more advanced assessment of kicking efficiency would involve measuring the proportion of kicks that are retained or result in scores.

Great podcast! Kudos also to all those who submitted interested and well-informed questions. BUT SERIOUSLY! Mentioning "loading" without first issuing a trigger warning??!! Read the room or you'll be cancelled!

Every week there are predictions of omitting Spargo, ANB or Sparrow. Every second week Pickett gets thrown in. Yet, in the last three years there have been two more earthquakes in Melbourne than omissions of any of the above.

This false narrative plays to the popular stereotype of Dees supporters as fickle and elitist. The media enjoy perpetuating it as the public laps it up. If it enrages Dees supporters, all the better to drive their engagement (eg talk back radio, clicking on articles). No eloquent arguments based on evidence (our match attendance relative to membership number is actually one of the highest in the AFL) is persuasive. Can't reason someone out of something they were never reasoned into in the first place.

Thx for the link - Scotts comments are interesting. This is how I see things. The differing priorities of the coaches (i.e. premiership success) and the media (i.e. consumer engagement) give rise to the conflicting perspectives (macro vs micro). Thus, the media amplifies the significance of each action, player performance or match to drive engagement while the coaches tend to de-emphasise. This leads to the inference that clubs regularly make decisions in the interest of premiership success at the expense of optimising weekly success (eg increased training loads for later pay offs, managing/resting players, trialing players in different positions or employing new tactics). This would be an uncomfortable truth for the AFL as it compromises the integrity of the betting markets; clearly knowing how much club's have prioritised a particular match up would be valuable intelligence. This is also not in the interests of the media to widely report ("...expect a scrappy, error-riddled, low-scoring game tonight as the Demons come into this game off a hard week on the track..." hardly stirs excitement). Especially when the media is controlled by the AFL. All of this pollutes the quality of analysis regarding the reasons for a team's form.

Thx @binman. Always enjoy reading your thoughts. I like that you've put yourself on the line by using your hypothesis to generate some predictions and given us specific means of testing those predictions (i.e. a better performance against the Pies and scrappy, low quality games against Cats and Giants). Like most watching the Blues game, I was pleased to see our whole-of-team defensive system again taking shape but frustrated by our inefficient ball use. Watching "Roaming Brian" (it's like a car crash - awful but hard to look away), I was surprised by the immediate reactions of Yze, Richardson and Goodwin. Each seemed disproportionately pleased with the performance (i.e. a scrappy 17 point win over a struggling team). Perhaps they're appraising the performance in a context unknown to outsiders (e.g. player fatigue levels due to training loads). (Apologies for tarnishing this thread with such low quality speculation 😬)

I think they picked Smith for the Carlton game with a view to also playing him against Collingwood in a defensive role on Moore. See what this set up looks like before considering Brown after the bye if moving well.