speed demon

That’s it @binman you’re going on ignore. I’m so frustrated by posters who are frustrated at posters for being frustrated at posters for being frustrated…er…hang on…

Thinking probabilistically is so useful for prediction but does not come naturally. It’s a skill that needs to be learnt and practised. Critically, we need to become aware of our cognitive biases that lead to poor intuitive assessments of probability. Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking: Fast and Slow” is a superb book on this topic. @binman’s post is a really good example of how intuitively most people would over estimate the probability of a likely event (eg stronger team beats weaker team) occurring multiple times. Of course it’s easy to understand when we do the calculation but the point is we tend not to do this and take a mental short cut leading to an overestimation. It’s one reason betting agencies push multis as punters think the odds are more attractive than they are (which helps conceal the compounding effect of the betting agency’s take on the difference between the agency’s odds and the “true” odds).

I really like the idea of Grundy in with a plan to sub out in the 2nd half. Give Grundy and Gawn a half each to be the dominant ruckman. Plays to their strengths. Also gives us a look at a few different set ups (i.e. Smith back vs forward, Hibberd as 3rd tall defender) against good opposition.

We'll never reach a consensus on how to rate Goodwin and he's never more than one loss away from angry Demonlanders picking up their metaphorical pitch forks (not causing you of this @Roost it far). However, I think most can agree that in the past month the following were bold decisions that have paid handsome dividends: * Selecting Melksham despite modest VFL form * Moving Petracca forward despite Oliver's absence * Omitting Grundy and playing Gawn solo * Revisiting the Petty forward experiment

Yeah, I agree. I think Harmes will play again and he and JJ will be competing to hold their spot from Oliver next week.

Three weeks ago, I expected Grundy to return at some stage. Now, I'm not so sure. Gawn's form has been astonishing. Moreover, his fitness is incredible; three consecutive weeks he's played 100% TOG in the 4th quarter and dominated his opponent. Maybe he can go solo for another four weeks until the pre-finals week off. I'm sure he and the club will have a good idea of what he's capable of. Also, cannot imagine Gawn being rested or managed. So, the only way to reduce his workload is to bring in Grundy. Petty and JVR are not getting omitted - and I wouldn't want to lose a running player - so I can't see how Grundy comes in without weakening the team. I like that Goodwin is talking about doing whatever's best for the MFC in terms of selection. While Grundy should be treated with respect, we shouldn't be distracted by sentimentality or media narratives. We're at the business end of the season with an excellent shot at the premiership. That's where the focus needs to be.

I think it needs to be 8 points to properly disincentivise this behaviour. Let's say a key player is concussed. The team conclude they can only win if the player plays on. The team wins and gains 4 points. Perhaps they are caught and lose 4 points. Thus, the team has broken even and are in the same position as if they had subbed the player out and lost the game. However, there is the chance that the team might both win AND avoid being caught thus gaining 4 points (and the player's availability for the following week). So, from an amoral probabilistic perspective, there is an incentive to cheat. The threat of losing 8 points would be a serious disincentive for a home and away game but I am unconvinced this is sufficient for a final (if it were to apply to the subsequent season). Forfeiting the game seem's drastic; imagine the grand final being over 5 minutes into the first quarter when a team return a concussed player to the field! The TV executives would be apoplectic! As other's have said, moving towards independent doctor's, like in the NRL, seems inevitable.

As a doctor, I think the management of this situation was disgraceful. The footage, which the club doctor reviewed at the time of the incident, clearly shows both players: * Clash heads at high speed * Lose muscle tone * Lack normal protective posturing while falling * Momentarily motionless on the ground * Appear confused and disoriented The clear interpretation is both players have been concussed and severely enough to have briefly lost consciousness. Both players should have been removed from the field, subjected to SCAT5 testing and - irrespective of the result - taken out of the game. Doctors prioritising an individual’s welfare ahead of their (or their employer’s) interests is essential for good healthcare and the integrity of the medical profession.

Some thoughts on our team heading into finals: Solo Gawn = Gawndry (though it's unsustainable) Gawn, Grundy, BBB and JVR will not play in the same team Grundy will return but - depending on match ups - may not be best 22. Difficult decisions ahead. BBB is our best tall forward but can't be trusted to run out a game let alone the season JVR will be our best tall forward - conceivably by September as he rises and others fall - and a respectable 2nd ruck Smith may not be best 22 but he is best 23. Kudos to Smith and the club for finally nailing his role Melksham hard to dislodge from best 22, especially with uncertainty around Fritsch. Stood up twice in two seasons to win important games (Blues '22 and Lions '23), is versatile and composed. Could be a player to win a final. Chandler's early season form was not an errant memory. Played Spargo's role better than Spargo. Best 22 Oliver to replace JJ Petracca to stay forward Petracca, Pickett and Rivers to continue rotating through the midfield to provide explosiveness and unpredictability

Agree with @rjay and @Redleg’s caution. Every second year someone is described as a generational talent. Are we talking about rabbits? However, if those like JT actually believe this, then I’m all for going all in. Winning the premiership AND getting the #1 draft pick would be a sublime conclusion to 2023. #powermove

It's actually more complicated than it seems. The injury is a fracture of the scaphoid bone. The scaphoid is one of eight small bones called 'carpal bones' in the hand. There is actually variation in how the anatomical "wrist" is defined; the wrist could be considered part of the hand (i.e. the carpal bones) or the junction of the hand (including the carpal bones) and the bones of the forearm (radius and ulna). So, in Howes' case, both hand and wrist are correct. As an aside, the scaphoid bone is somewhat of a design flaw, as the scaphoid receives it's blood supply from distal (further away) to proximal (closer). This creates issues with healing leading to complications such as non-union and avascular necrosis. I suspect Howes has unfortunately developed such complications given the club doctor's comments that the fracture "had probably been there for some time". Scaphoid fractures can be difficult to identify initially on routine imaging and thus a delayed diagnosis of a scaphoid fracture (when complications are present) is not uncommon. The issue for the club's comms is that, in translating from precise medical language to language the average punter understands, accuracy can be lost and ambiguity introduced. Without an understanding of the specific diagnosis, we should be cautious about making inferences from generic descriptions (e.g. "hamstring" 😬).

2023 pick #4?

Agree with your post. Two exceptions are Andy's interviews on this site (e.g., May, Grundy, Selwyn) and Peter Donegan's "This is your sporting life" segment that made everyone seem fascinating.

Can’t see Grundy or the MFC requesting a trade when he’s just won a premiership. He’ll stay for the next one.

More certain is that Nathan Buckley is not a premiership player or coach and he never will be.

Oh, you mean like this? Still, I agree with you. The context makes the difference. Absolutely sublime by Melksham though.

After the Saints game... Rowan Marshall: "I'm as good as Gawn & Grundy combined!" Max Gawn: "Hey Brody, hold my beer."

I see what your saying. Certainly agree the result was not solely due to the Lions choking. Dees deserve plenty of credit for their fitness, determination and composure in the last 15 minutes. Lions deserve credit for unpicking our defence for two quarters.

Seems they have. We showed great run in the last quarter, especially coming off consecutive 6 days breaks and hard games. Not sure such talk is nonsense. I think the Lions have to ask themselves how well they coped with the pressure of being chased down. Fagan for one looked like he was having a panic attack in the coaches box. Our fitness and Lion's choking need not be mutually exclusive factors in influencing the outcome.

Agree and that's why, as amazing as tonight was, we should not expect Gawn to play in beast mode every week. When we evaluate the Gawn/Grundy combo, we need to remember that Grundy's quality ruck work during the season has helped preserve Gawn for the end of season.

I'm in such a great mood I'm watching 'roaming Brian' and actually enjoying it...

I don't think we win this game in the midfield. I think we'll struggle to break even there. Our path to victory is via our greatest asset, our defence. They will need to repel numerous attacks and initiate rapid fire counterattacks utilising the full width of the ground to exploit the Lions lack of speed. With decent ball movement into an open forward line, our forwards are good enough to kick a winning score.

OK OK OK...but suppose a poster had done a first aid course AND once had a tight hamstring after squash, surely then they are appropriately positioned to ascertain with absolute certainty that the medical team's management of Oliver was grossly incompetent?!

Big call to leave Max to ruck solo against McInerney, especially off two 6-day breaks. Max should know his capabilities - and would have been consulted about this - so I assume he's up for it. 😬 On Grundy, coming off two major injuries and 12 months out, playing for a new club and in a different role, I think he's had a reasonable year. Credit to him and the medical/fitness staff to get him this far unscathed. I expect he'll be better next year.