binman

Leaving aside the starting point I agree daisy. I was just saying to a mate yesterday that state v state angst had been awful.

Well let's agree to disagree nev. In the four vfl games I have watched Smith play this year his role has mirrored the role Hunt plays. He had 19 disposals against Werribee running put of defence. I suggested he might replace Hunt last week. Technically he came in for may but in reality it was Hunt as that was the role he played. May is back in this week and Smith stays. It is very unlikely goody makes a structural change to tbe backline at this stage ie four talls. Much more likely he would keep the structure that has been tbe foundation of tbe leagues best defence by a country mile. Hunt played a very specific role. And a very important one in our system. I think many don't appreciate how important. Logic suggests that role needs to be replaced. And the players you mention all have their own set roles to play. As I suggested before the crows game Smith in to play hunts role makes sense. And that is the role I am positive he will play. And if he does a good job in that role he will stay in the team through the finals. And I'm not sure what you mean about his kicking. He is a more reliable ick than Hunt.

Jordon rested for sure. And likely replaces Sparrow. Hibberd likely not rested, given the stakes. Might have played his last game this season

Nup. Smith playing hunts role. Smith will provide help in some aerial contests, and will find himself isolated against a tall at some points though the game (just as Hunt does), but as we saw last year he is no good defensively one on one. Half back flanker, run and carry and overlap run will be his go.

But that's my point. That is not what the doherty reports says. It days at 70% Vax rate lockdowns will not be needed as a suppression strategy. But only if cases are low. From memory the threshold was 20-30 cases a day. If cases are in the hundreds a day lockdowns will still be required under the 4 stage plan based in the domestic report. That's why I day she is being disingenuous

Another comms screw up. And all because he wants a popularity sugar hit. How many people under 40 are now going to cancel their AZ shot they have an appointment for? Which slow the Vax rate down. And of course they won't be able to get a Pfizer appointment for ages, certainly not 1 September. But will wait. And in doing so slow the Vax rate down Why not wait until August 31 and mitigate the first issue?

To be clear I meant the comment from Gladys was disingenuous, not rjay's

Love it. Some first impressions feedback: On the smartphone app the MFC news comes first. Personally i would put all the aggregated 'other' news (eg age/HUN articles about the dees) first and MFC stuff last Why? becuase i would go the MFC website for all that stuff (and their videos, podcast etc etc) ie it is already aggregated (and can pop it on autoplay) - which i can't do obviously for news from multiple media outlets In fact i would consider not having any official MFC stuff on there as there is heaps and it is distracts from all the other stuff (and from a club perspective they may prefer not to lose traffic to their site?) the videos i would like aggregated in one spot is the YouTube channels that have bespoke edits of games, shows, clips etc etc. Lace out is an excellent example I might of missed it, but if not, i would absolutely put up a link to the Dees bible - Demonwiki

That is such an incredibly disingenuous comment. Not to mention dangerous As Dan Andrews said today the modelling by the Doherty Institute is predicted on low daily community transmission case numbers, not numbers in the hundreds.

Spot on. With one exception. Tomorrow is day one a 14 day lock down as the current one was scheduled to finish tonight at 11:59pm. I'm actually quietly confident that if we have some luck we'll get it down close to zero. The engagement party does not seem to have been so called super spreader event (it was 8 days ago, attendees started to get test on Sunday, when the first positive test came and in and and surely all have been tested by now) and at this stage, as you say, they have very good handle on chains of transmission. Of course all depends on no further mystery case breaches from NSW, people doing the right thing and a healthy dose of luck.

That is a function of the betting pool and how much has already been bet on the Cats Around the time of the bye rounds kicking off the Dogs, dees and cats were essentially all equal favorites for the flag. In the 3-4 weeks post that period we were perceived to be struggling and the dogs had come off the boil. However the Cats were unbeaten in that same period and the money came for them, and punters were not keen on the dogs and the dees. The weight of money meant the cats became favorites at around $4 (where they remain). Three weeks ago, prior to the Suns game, we were $5.50 and i think the dogs $4.50. I know that because I took the $5.50 ten minutes before the Suns game started on the logic that it represented great value as i was confident we would win our next two games and tighten considerably. Regardless of the result on Friday night the Cats are likely to drift, as punters will back the winner and increase the pool and decrease the cats percentage of that pool (essentially maintaining the bookies profit margin). If Port are impressive they will come in and the same goes for the dogs If we win this week punters will back us and the Cats will likely drift again. Particularly if they end up having to play Port at Adelaide oval as even more money will bt on Port in that scenario. I think we will win and the dogs will win. If that occurs i suspect we will be slight favorites for the flag at $4 and the dogs second favorite at $4.20. The dogs will be aprox $5.50 and Port remain at $6.50. If you are punter, the $4.50 you can get on the dees atm still represents great value. We are the best team in the AFL and we are in the best shape injury wise of any team too. If i was framing a fresh market (ie no money in the pool yet) i would have dees $3.50 favourites.

Yep, that's the likely changes. Not sure melksham could be considered unlucky if he comes out though.

Its actually narrower i think. Which is weird. Cricket is the only other team sport that comes to mind that does not have uniform size playing field.

Or alternatively he will keep getting better and better and like almost every big before him hit his peak around 26-28 years old.....

That's a really good comparison. Both super athletic, super competitors, love to be where the football, crazy good lateral movement for talls and big x factor. Interestingly Schwarter was also gun junior basketballer. By leap do you mean LJ doesn't have Schwarter's leap or vice versa?

You could try doing what that fella did in the England v India test - come onto the ground in a full playing kit. Park yourself at full forward, Barwon river end.

Only inside both teams 50 metre arc.

I disagree on both these points A F. Faded in the second half, but I thought he was our best defender in the first half. And i don't recall being out of position or undermining our defensive structure (certainly not repeatedly) being an issue at all. From a structural perspective we missed May, but Smith wasn't playing his role really. No one was. So that no doubt created some structural challenges for the defence. We will need to replace Hunt's overlap run and carry and i I think they took the opportunity to give Smith a run with view to assessing if he might be a good replacement for Hunt. And he played accordingly, meaning he was zoning off, providing a link option for handballs, provising some run and carry overlap, using his pace to impact marking contests and getting up the ground. For me Smith is chance of coming into the side at the expense of Hibberd. Hibbo is the incumbent and deservedly so. And in all likelihood keeps Smith out. But he is slower than Smith and Smith can impact aerial contests better, so Smith is definitely in the frame for a finals gig. It might end up being be horses for courses a bit. Hibbo's best games this year have been going one one one with gun strong mid sized forwards - like Papley and Martin. Hibbo will get selected this week and likely go to Dangerfield when he goes forward. Looking at the other top 5 teams, Port has Robbie Gray we would need to Hibbo to lock down, but the dogs and lions don't really have an equivalent player. So maybe Smith comes in if we play one of those two teams.

Its funny you should post that DL. As a glass half full sort, i was thinking that no pre finals bye would actually work in our favour given our fitness, but in particular how healthy our loss is (touch wood). Not sure about the Power, but the dogs and Cats are limping along a bit and would love that extra week to get prepared for the qualifying finals. I've never liked the pre finals bye, not that has been an issue for us! It is important to remember why it was brought in - which was primarily to stop teams sending out a b team in the last round in dead rubbers to keep players fresh for the finals. The trigger was freo under lyon dong juts that against the hawks down in tassie. It was stupid knee jerk decision In the years since there has been some revisionism and it is often said the benefit of it is that teams have their best shot of having their best team on the park in the first week of finals. And by doing so creating a more level playing field. But that is actually the key reason i don't like it. Teams who have prepared well, are fit and are in ok shape injury wise (through luck and/or good management) are disadvantaged. And teams that win the qualifying final then have two week break before the prelim. So lets say the team that finishes top, has an easy win again the team that finished 4th. And lest say they had dead rubber in round 23. Come the prelim they might have only played one tough game in 5 weeks - two if the qualifying final is tough. The stat swamp highlights seem to support the contention the pre finals bye disadvantages the top 4 teams

Smith - didn't surprise binman

Fair points. It was more about tbe form we were in come finals. We were red hot. And there was no standout team that year. We smashed Sydney and the roos in the finals And weren't we 40 odd points up at half time in the crows game? And they went in to win the flag. Have I got the year right?

That was the year we should have won the flag. And I always thought if jarman had not refused to come to us in 1988, and instead sit out the season so he could get to the hawks in 89, we might have had a shot such was ability.

Not now. Jixed them

Could not believe the tigers were favourite with bookies for this game. So I backed them to win ay 2.20. And to win by more than 39 at 14

Can't get much more west than that!