binman

Fitness would a play role - fatigue impacts all elements of any game plan. For example a factor in the difference might be poor conversion. We have many players with poor kicking technique and fatigue exacerbates poor technique. But given that specific comparison is comparing this year to last year, when fatigue would also have been a factor, then there are no doubt many other possible factors and causes. I haven't listened to the segment - did king give any explanation as to what he thinks are causing the numbers, because that is where my mind goes. Otherwise the analysis lacks nuance and the solutions therefore will lack nuance and will be too simplistic For example he might just simply say the dees need to fix their scores from clearances because they are down on last year. Jackson has been taking a much higher percentage of the ruck time in the back half of the season this year, with Maxy pushing forward to mitigate our lack of an effective second tall and perhaps also because he is carrying niggles. It feels like it has almost been 50 50 in the last six or seven matches (the data on this would interesting). Jackson is not in Maxy's league (yet) as a ruck, particularly at around the grounds stoppages where his relative lack of strength is an issue, an issue compounded by any fatigue he might be experiencing (his form dropped right off in the middle of last season and again this year). It seems logical that Maxy attending less stoppages would impact on how often we score from those stoppages as he is a far better ruck than Jackson. Another factor is we have had a much harder draw this season and so have played more games against teams with gun midfields than last season. There are probably any number of other possible factors too - eg opposition tactical strategies have been more effective this season.

Sorry Kev, I was making a silly joke - a play on words from that stupid dire straits song combiing your comment you don't like something for nothing and radomly working in free kicks As in 'money for nothing and your kicks for free' Safe to say, quite a stretch. But I agree with you about free kicks btw.

A big factor in the change to those inside 50 scoring ratio numbers is fatigue related to loading. Makes sense because our defensive sytem is completely reliant on all team defensive running. If that is off even a little bit our abilty to get back inside D 50 in numbers is compromised. But even more significantly, our abilty to put pressure on the final kick inside 50 is compromised and that makes it much easier for the opposition to kick to their forwards advantage. Fatigue wasn't an issue in the first half of the seaon, which is a factor in our better numbers in that period. Fatigue is not the only factor of course. For one thing, we have played some really good teams since Round 16. Other teams know tbey have no chance to beat us playing slow and therefore fast ball movement is critical. That is risk reward, and the reward is a higher inside 50 to score ratio. We also elected to play high tempo, aggressive footy against the dogs, never seemingly trying to slow the tempo. We did the same in the first half against the pies. That style risks giving up lots of uncharacteristic slingshot, rebound goals. And that is exacctly what happened against tbe dogs and the pies, particularly in the first half (at half time, the pies had 8 goals 2 from only 17 entries). That's two games from kings seven game sample where we elected to play a different, more aggressive, high tempo model than our normal method. Shoot outs. So a nearly a third of his sample size could be considered outliers, or at the very least factored into the analysis. That's exactly what annoys me so much about kings shallow analysis. He doesn't consider or give any context to the data he speaks to. Or try and understand what might be behind the numbers. The numbers are symptoms and indicators of a problem not the cause of the problem. Misunderstand the symptoms and you can't give a proper diagnosis, or more importantly land on an effective solution. And leaving aside ignoring loading as a factor, any dees fans watching our last seven games would concede the opposition have been running out games better. So at the very least king should be suggesting fitness levels and fatigue relative to our opposition are possible factors in the numbers. Which would be well worth pointing out, because relative fitness levels are obviously going to be a key determinant in who wins the flag and are if we are not as fit as our finals opponents we are in trouble.

So, if understand you correctly EO - we are going to hammer the lions!

Do you like your kicks for free?

Ta. I'll have a listen. But my guess would be that the round 20 game was when they were at their strongest, ie most powerful, not their peak readiness - which is finals time That would jag with the training program model Vipercrunch, Engorged Onion, Von and coach have discussed in the loading phase thread. The program nvolveds a combination of blocks of high intensity strength focused training and blocks of volume to increase aerobic capacity. The combination of the two, hopefully, results optimal readiness for a 4-5 week period, which for us would be working back from GF day (5 weeks is this Friday night).

We've won our last 12 interstate games? I didn't realize that. That's a crazy amount of wins on the road. I wonder how much a role phycology plays in our success (paging @Engorged Onion)? I say that becuase i heard Melk being interviewed after the blues game and he was asked about the upcoming lions game. The first things he said is the boys love travelling interstate together, find it a positive bonding experience and they have a great record on the road. I was reflecting that i have heard so many dees players mention in interviews variations on that same theme since Goody has become coach. Of course winning helps, but i wonder if it is like a virtuous cycle where the repetition of such a positive narrative and framing makes winning more likely and winning reinforces the narrative. Whatever the case its worked on me - i'm even more confident we will win!

Can you point me towards where he said that as i very much doubt he meant that the round 20 was our peak physical readiness for the whole season. That game was very low intensity and we were not put under any physical pressure for the whole game. We barely got out of second gear (i watched it again ahead of this season's second freo game). It was incomparable to the power and intensity we ran out the prelim and GF. 'Best physicals output' could mean any number of things (eg total distance covered as per the GPS monitors) - I'd have to listen, or read what he actually said, and the context it was said in, to give an informed response.

Mmm predominantly - i feel like we have been here before. Words in mouth and all that. Looks like you are not going to hear me - so hell I'll make it easer for you: Our form is completely and utterly dependent on loading. Loading is so much the biggest factor that really, it is not even worth discussing others. I get it DWA (Demon With Attitude?), you are not part of the cult. That's ok. Just enjoy the win because we stack up well against the lions and be confident it has nothing to do with being incrementally fresher team than the one that took on Carlton in a bruising affair.

Would it be a tripdych?

He worked so hard all match. And took a clutch mark and kicked a clutch goals in the third Fans can be hard markers.

Good call. The other key was BB not allowing an intercept mark or clearing punch.

I thought she was suggesting the blues replace Voss as coach with Rutten.

Indiscriminate kick by Lever Daisy Thomas reckons. Yeah, nah.

We need a new recruiting push. Smashing the lions in the second half will help.

Me:

I look forward to smiling wryly to myself as we swarm all game and power away from a tiring lions in the last 15 minutes of the game. Oh and i'm going to love the post match review of the game as the Fox 'analysts' fall over themselves to say the dees are back, and do their their level best to walk back their grim predictions of our demise. Might even get Andy to clip it up and play on next week's show.

Because they had covid

Jezus - how did the cats get that draw? Three games in tbe second half of the seaon against top 3 sides, at least one of which was at home (us). And they played North twice!

I thought at the game that we played the last two minutes really well, and the kick inside to the corridor by Lever was super smart - great vison is what i thought live. It was great vison, however I listened to Kozzie and Melk being interviewed in the way home and both said they had specifically trained for that scenario during the week after the last two minutes of the pies game. Ad noted, Lever was waving at players to get in their, and when he collected the ball he barely looked in board, just kicked it on a weird angle accross his body. I assume they set up that exact play ie multiple players into the corridor and then a lateral inboard kick. Great coaching, great work by the players to execute. That said we got a pretty lucky bounce

I thought at the game that we played the last two minutes really well, and the kick inside to the corridor by Lever was super smart - great vison is what i thought live. It was great vison, however I listened to Kozzie and Melk being interviewed in the way home and both said they had specifically trained for that scenario during the week after the last two minutes of the pies game. Ad noted, Lever was waving at players to get in their, and when he collected the ball he barely looked in board, just kicked it on a weird angle accross his body. I assume they set up that exact play ie multiple players into the corridor and then a lateral inboard kick. Great coaching, great work by the players to execute. That said we got a pretty lucky bounce

I reckon the bombers should try another succession plan. Get Jobe 'the wordsmith' Watson in as senior assistant, with rutten as the seasoned mentor type. Watson to take the reins after two more years treading water.

Went back and found a post coach put up on this topic. From that post, I've got it wrong in terms of being too specific about peaking on prelim day and maintaining that through to Grand Final day. In this post, -coach- notes that such specificity is possible in an elite individual sport (eg Olympic swimming) but not in a team sport like the AFL (which is complex, Australia only, has lots of variables and involves so many participants). From the post (my highlight): 'The standard of refinement in yearly team sports (competing weekly) and AFL (a one country sport) is miles lower and not designed for a one one event peak. Rather its designed to have the majority of your group in season best readiness for a block of around 4-5 weeks depending on what your final goal is. For example, for us, it would be to be hitting our straps before and throughout finals, whereas Collingwood will be in peak fitness now in a bid to make finals and then hold on as best they can (Kinda like us in 2018, when we just ran out of legs before the GF).' From that i take we will aim to be close to our peak at the start of finals then do our best to maintain that through to GF day, should we make it. Or even close to our peak this Friday night. Friday night is 4 weeks out from the prelim and 5 weeks out from the GF. The last 15 minutes of the game quarter will tell the tale. If we are near our peak we should be running out this game powerfully. As should the lions for that matter as they would have pretty similar program to us in terms of timing of readiness.

No offence meant, but I think your assumption is wrong. Tbe point of any periodisation program is to peak at a particular point in time, not maintain peak fitness for a block of time, which in this case would mean 7 odd weeks. Which if I understand what I have researched on this topic and what coach and others have posted it is not possible to maintain peak fitness for that long.

To be clear I'm not working from the assumption that we are at ~75% fitness. It could be 95%. But of course there is no exact number. Let's say for the sake of argument, in a game of such margins, a 5% increase in power ans abilty to keep up the running right to the end of the game might be the difference between getting rolled in the prelim and winning a premiership. It's tbat extra percentage that scott has made clear the cats need to find to go all the way.