binman

Needs one more option - the pre prepared 'witty' word play/joke/alliteration etc wedged into some bit of play that doesn't quite fit. Double skol for when, after it clearly nor landing the first time, he tries it again later in the match. Dennis Commeti he ain't.

It is 3.25 becuase that price is close the true odds of us winning the flag and the punters jumped on board after they saw what we did to Freo I loaded up on the dees at the 3.75 you could get prior out the Freo game. I was hoping to get 4.00, but the punters were too smart and understood we are the real deal and the weight of money kept us under 4.00. For context we were 5.50 just prior to our round 20 game last year, which was well overs (as history proved). But the price difference between this year and last year, and the current odds for the flag, reflect the realty that there is really only two legitimate contenders this season (us and the cats), whereas as last year at this at this point in the season the dogs, lions, power and cats were all realistic contenders, as reflected by the betting market at that time (prior to round 20 last season, the dogs were fav, cats second fav, then us and then i think port or the lions). Personally i think the true odds of us winning the flag this year are aprox 2.80, so 3.25 still represents really good value (at least on my assessment of the true odds). I will be very surprised if we don't start the finals as clear favorites, and as short as 2.50 (it is worth nothing that only represents a 40% probability of winning the flag). I think the cats' true odds of winning the flags are aprox 4.00, so an option is laying them on betfair as at 3.25 i reckon they are well unders (ie under the true odds).

I doubt we changed our approach as such - Burgess didn't come to the club till 2020 (though we certainly would have had a lot of learnings!). By that I mean we were no doubt loading, but in 2018 we would have been preparing to make finals, nor a preliminary. Whereas the Eagles, for example, the eventual flag winner, would have been preparing to peak on preliminary final day.

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Yep - to be clear, I wasn't suggesting you dismissed the idea fitness levels wasn't a factor. Even if we were super fresh, mentally it would have tough to back up a third week after our run into the finals and two huge games at the g.

You might well be right. But one of the things I really dislike about not factoring in the impact of training regimes and preparation on a team's performance is how, in the absence of doing so, often the footy media's and fan's default explanation ends up a variation of mental weakness/soft/got ahead of themselves/didn't turn up type rubbish. It's just so mind numbingly simplistic and lacking any nuance.

Exactly. Against west coast Geelong were noticeably fatigued. Other teams were thrashing the Eagles at that point, but the cats just got over line. They won, but it was a sub optimal performance. The cat's method is not as aerobically taxing as ours, and not so reliant on defensive spread for other parts of their game to work, so it stands to reason that they will be less impacted by fatigue. Means they are more likely to win when loading. But still performing at a sub optimal level. Which they did against us - they made almost as many basic skill errors as us that game.

I didn't say they did

I reckon this is a very likely scenario. No doubt they would have dome some loading program, but not to peak on prelim day, more to make sure they don't flag too much late in the season. I reckon this is pretty common scenario and is a factor (note: a factor, not the only factor) why some teams unexpectedly storm into the finals and look world beaters but hit the wall big time at some point in the finals and get smashed by a higher finishing team. Two recent examples come to mind - the bombers last year (who were level at half time in an elimination final against the dogs, but could barely raise a trot in the second half and got smashed) and us in 2018.

Absolutely. In elite Olympic sports my understanding it has been in use since the 1970s. Given the aerobic demands it makes perfect sense that it would become standard practice in the AFL. And the timing of it starting to be uded in the AFL, which i think was the late 90s (starting in 97 with the crows) makes sense too given it probably wasn't until then the AFL really became an elite, fully professional sport (that transitiion probably started in tbe early 90s?).

Yes, particularly because it has been happening since at least 1997 when blight won a flag with the crows.

Adams is a huge out for them.

Also interesting that the 'extra preseason' went for 6 weeks. Now that is likely aprox 8 weeks, but otherwise pretty similar length.

Curious echo given the echo is different

Not by me it wasn't. I said we would struggle. You might remember the reason why. Rhymes with foreboding. Which is appropriate, given the pies fans will be approaching this game with a sense of foreboding, which is defined as 'a feeling that something bad will happen'. We will smash them.

Pretty confident we will find a way. Plenty of punters agree it would appear given we are currently 1.45 favourites - which is pretty remarkable given they have won their last 10 games and it is second v third.

I agree with all of the above. I wish tbey did talk about it, as part of the footy media's job is to help fans make sense of what we are watching. Even if they only touched on it as a potential variable, fans could take it into account when trying to make sense of why a team can go 10 zip, then say 50 50 for the next 10 games. Fans could still reject the concept, but at the moment the narrative almost always circles back to a supposed weakness of the club being discussed- eg mentally weak, game plan worked out, complancey, lack of hunger, players not invested, drinking their own bathwater etc etc. But leaving that aside, there is lots of intersting considerations - eg is it worth risking nor finishing top 4 by going too hard, is a particular game style disadvantaged more by fatigue than others, how do they message it, does the age of the squad matter, do some teams push through it better eyc etc. The simple explanation of why the footy media don't discuss it is money. They (and the AFL) no doubt worry fans will switch off during this phase if they know the game quality will be impacted by loading. Which it is, but it also means outcomes are more unpredictable- which is great for fans supporters non top 4 sides. So I doubt discussing loading would actually impact the bottom line.

Why?

Me too. Pretty spot on too - Jackson's hair isn't quite as frizzy as Phil Lynott, but I can see where he was going.

I can't recall a player be8ng specifically asked about loading, so this interview by Tony Leonard with Jake Lever caught my attention. How you interpret Jake's response will probably depend on where you sit with loading, but it is intersting nonetheless. From 4.13. https://omny.fm/shows/3aw-is-football/jake-lever-joins-us-from-the-winning-rooms

I'm not sure you could claim the head of the Catholic church is infallible.

Agree. Like all top 4 contenders , Freo would have done a loading program. You could see the impact on them, an impact acknowledged by Longmuire. I have no doubt they would have timed their program to be in the best possible shape and readiness for Friday's game. So, both teams were ready to rumble, and unlike our last match, on the same footing freshness wise. Using a horse racing analogy, it was a weight for age contest not a handicap race like round 11. With equal luck in running the best horse wins at WFA. And we are genuine WFA group one wiining team and Freo are, at best, competitive at listed level and a way of group class. In footy speak - we are a 6 plus goal better side than Freo. Hence my confidence ahead of the match.

Agree. But their main issue is their woeful defence. Old school sysyem thst just doesn't cut it - as evidenced by how many big scores they've give up. Cost them this game as they simply couldn't stop the tiger's momentum

I wish. The AFL love to copy all the stupid things about American sport - like 'game day experience'. Unfortunately, we haven't copied the way their sports are covered - which on the whole is brilliant accross all their major sports. And the other related thing they haven't imported is open access to the full range of stats. Instead they lock up the champion data and dribble it out to the public via morons in the media who don't know the difference between cause and symptom.

Didn't he say we could miss the finals after our loss to the pies? Jesus wept.