binman

It is also a factor (not the only one obviously, talent being thesin one) why so many teams who finish 5-8 hit the wall in finals and if they make it through the first week (when they play teams with similar preparations) get smashed the following week, like esendon ladt year, who were level at half time before completed running out of gas in the second half and barely scoring).

Bumping this thread as it interesting to read how many of the same issues were occurring from June through end of July last year. For example Watson11 notes in that thread, our scores from turnovers (as he notes, scores from turnovers fundamental of our game) fell off a cliff in thta perid last year, just as they did against the Swans Other examples include, trouble scoring, sudden very stodgy and slow ball movement, fumbles, our stars output dropping and Jackson falling away. Regardless of what you think the causes are for those issues, the important take away is that the last post in a thread about our slump in form was 1 August 2021. The same day we clicked into gear, destroyed the suns by over 100 points, smashed every team after that on our way to our first premiership in 57 years. There wasn't much talk about form slumps after that last post.

That's a somewhat disingenuous use of quotes (ie the bit you highlighted in your post i have quoted above) The full context was: 'A coach or player coming out and saying they are loading? Well that's not going to happen.' But, in any case i've tapped out of the discussion. Happy for you to reject my theory. (but if i was going to point you to a footballer who says loading happens, i'd recommended you chase up the clip of Jack Riewoldt on AFL 360 from i think 2019 or 2020, who is directly asked about loading and all but confirms they always loaded mid season. Which explains why they had a mid season slump in form in each of their three premiership years. Well it does for me - others might think it is just a weird coincidence) (I'd also add that your 'Seasonal Training-Load Quantification in Elite English Premier League Soccer Players' example is not particularly relevant for this discussion. They don't have a grand final in the EPL- unlike the AFL every game is a must win and as such there is no need to peak for one game at season's end. Though I'd bet my bottom dollar that the big clubs in contention for tbe UEFA Champions league title, the most covered in world soccer outside the world cup use loading to get their best 11 cherry ripe for the final)

After these final four comments, I'm tapping out of the loading discussion, because i'm probably coming across as some crazy loading proselyting zealot. I'm happy to stick with my theory, and happy for others to have theirs of course. The first comment is to reinforce that i am not looking to make excuses for the poor performance of the team, rather looking to identify the reason for the drop off. We all know the symptoms (fumbles, poor decision making, hard to score, easy to score against etc etc) and i think my theory is the most logical explanation to help explain those symptoms. The second comment relates to the first - loading is not the only reason for our poor performance. LH listed a number of excellent factors that contributed to our poor performance in the last two weeks. I would say that fatigue related to additional training loads would exacerbate all of them. My final comment is a thought experiment. Lets imagine Australia's best 800 metre runner, Peter Bol was preparing to run in the Olympic 800 metre final on the last day of September, so of course wants to be at his absolute cherry ripe best on that date. And then lets imagine he has the first race of his European running season in late March. As someone who makes his living from professional running, Peter is desperate to win that race and earn the ranking points and the cash prizes. So of course, he has done a huge block of preseason training to be cherry ripe for the first race of the season to maximize his chance of winning that race. It is not feasible, however, for him to remain at that level for six months. To be cherry ripe for the 800 metre final on the last day of September, Peter is going to have stop racing at some point and do another heavy block of training, and then taper so he is both fresh and at the optimal fitness level, come grand final day. All that is accepted wisdom. It is uncontested the AFL is one of the most aerobically challenging football codes. The average player runs anywhere between 12 to 20 kilometers per game, which is incredible really. The training and athleticism required to achieve those sort of distances for 6 months in competition is comparable, i would have thought, to that of elite, world class runners. Given, that, and the fact that AFL football teams have performance management programs and experts the equal of any in the world (if not in resources certainly in output) why would AFL clubs NOT replicate what is accepted practice (based on decades of research and experience) in analogous sports (eg running, swimming) requiring equivalent fitness levels and the need to peak at the start of the season and again for their grand final? My last comment is that these exact same discussions were being had on DL at this point last season. We looked fatigued then and played sub optimally until round 18 (1 August 2021) when we got going and pulverized the Suns with our swarm. We maintained that level until the very last minute of the GF. My expectation is that, injuries notwithstanding, our 2022 season will follow a similar trajectory.

I agree. I was surprised he didn't go back o the wing when Salo came back in. Hopefully Rivers gets back to his best form and can come back in and as you say gus goes back to his win role.

What evidence do you want? A coach or player coming out and saying they are loading? Well that's not going to happen. The evidence is right there in front of our eyes, and for the second straight season, at the same stage - uncharacteristic fumbles and poor decision making opposition suddenly able to move the ball quickly through the corridor trouble shouting down switches and therefore trouble stopping oppo transition out of our forward half clearly fatigued players less 'swarm' and multiple players running in waves, an inability to create goals with swarm and run, opposition having too many one on ones in their forward half uncharacteristically giving up contested marks, etc etc What is your explanation for the totality of those issues?

They did so on the back of their smart, quick and incisive ball movement. Which we couldn't stop becuase we re not spreading as hard as we do when cherry ripe. We score the same way way, albeit with less precision ball movement and more swarm, and when on also create one on ones and lots of free players inside our 50.

You don't have a bye in July/August to enable an all team two week (sometimes longer) break from playing a game of football and recover from being smashed on the track. And teams don't want to be playing sub optimal football in August, one month out from finals. That is exactly when we started to get rolling last year - round 12 last year was 1 August, and coming off a draw against the Hawks and a loss to the dogs (games we still looked flat in) we thrashed the Suns by close to 100 and never looked back. You asked why other teams are not flagging ATM, and i noted the Freo lost two in a row prior to playing us and Brisbane had been flat in the last few weeks. (perhaps Freo did a block of hard training in that period and freshened up to be ready for the dees and the lions - would make sense and in both games they were clearly running better and, after being behind in the first quarters, were noticeably stronger than us or the lions in the second half of both games) Well, now the Lions, who were favourite to beat Freo (even though it was in Perth) and are second fav for the flag, have lost 2 of their last 3 games - and the win was a lucky one against the Suns having been 5 goals down in the first quarter. Feels like a wobble to me. The Lions play the Saints this week at home. They are big favorites, but if they lose, it will 3 losses from 4 games. The last thing i will say about about loading is that our contested ball and tackle numbers have been fine. Our all team pressure numbers haven't. It seems to me that the obvious issue is we are not spreading and defensively running has hard as were in the first say 9 rounds, or certainly when we were cherry ripe come finals last years. We are also suddenly more fumbly and making poor decisions - again juts as happened at this exact point in the season last year. Why is the question. Perhaps COVID has had an impact, perhaps the flu, maybe injury is biting. But i haven't heard or read a convincing argument why so many players running has dropped off at the one point - just as it did at the exact same point last year. I don't buy that other teams have worked us out (though teams are playing smarter - less dump kicks into our D 50 for example), or our model is flawed, or the players are a bit complacent or that we are coming back to the pack etc etc. If people want to think that the problem is one of, a combination of, or all of these issues that's up to them But i'm sticking with my theory. Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one. And to be clear my answer isn't an excuse - it is a reason. And i reckon people should get prepared for some more losses in the next few games - and training loads will be part of the reason for the losses. I think we will struggle against the Pies, but they play a territory game like us and don't have the same ability to chain up possessions and stretch our defence web as Freo and the Swans. So i predict a low scoring arm wrestle that we just prevail in.

Freo lost to the pies and the port in the two games before us. Loading happens. But of course some teams will be impacted mote than others. For example the tigers in their pomp and the current dees unit, rely on hugely taxing all team defence for both their defence AND offence (eg scores from turnovers, which by the by we scored zip from yesterday) to work optimally. So it stands to reason both teams would be impacted by fatigue, more than say the lions, given their game plan is not so reliant on all team gut running Occam's razor.

I should have said every team who is going to make finals do load. Those out of contention, or on the bubble, can't afford to lose games they would otherwise won if not for fatigue. Other contenders do struggle at this exact point in tbe season. As an example, in the last two weeks, Brisbane, the second favourite for the flag were beaten by the hawks and almost got rolled by the giants. Geelong, a perennial contender, famously struggle after the bye. The tigers hit a flat spot in each of their premiership years, just as we did last year.

I said last year at this point of the season that the footy world seems to have collective amnesia, in that every season we reset and forget what had happened in previous years. Teams have been loading for years. It is standard football practice. You could write a thesis on why it is people want to ignore that fact. The thesis would have a chapter on why current players and coaches reflexively deny loading happens (it is apparently a great evil to offer up any reason for poor performance, lest you be accused of the greatest sin - making excuses). And another chapter on why ex player who know loading happens don't talk about it. Everyone could save some time and repost all the comments about our fumbles, lethargy, forward line connection, we are just not that good, fans getting ahead of themselves etc etc from this stage last year.

Ni doubt in my mind we are loading. Why? Because, one, you can see they are not covering the ground, are unusually fumbly and in the last two weeks are shaged at the end of quaters and the whole second half. And two, this is exactly what happened last year at exactly the same point in the year, including our sudden inability to score and stop the opposition marking the ball. I won't be surprised if we lose next week too.

Top shelf detective work right there.

That makes sense. The lions are definitely in the premiership window, so tbst fits. And with the way they play, they need their tall forwards firing and bringing it down to their gun medium forwards. In terms of talls, they've got some good ones. But for various reasons, they all have some questions marks about them. At his best, Daniher is a star. But he is a game to game proposition, let alone season to season, in terms of consistency and staying fit and injury free. Hipwood is a star too. But might take a while to get back after his acl, and is a little one dimensional, in that if he is not kicking goals he doesn't add much (though is a terrific field kick). I rate Mcstay, he has good dukes and competes hard. But he is no star, and i thought I read he is maybe looking to leave. Walker would slot into their forward line perfectly, and would love the quick way the lions move the ball into their 50 (creating lots of one on ones) and how direct they are.

Ours. Because in the ladt couple of seasons the swans have moved away from a contest and territory game plan, to a move it quickly by hands and running from the back half plan. Which is a style similar to the dogs. And similarly at risk of breaking down under pressure - or in wet slippery conditions. Plus they simply don't have enough strong, seasoned bulls in their midfield. I suspect they will bring at least one, probably two extras to stoppages and look to win tge clearance battle. We won't match them so lets hope tracc is fit and firing. Look for maxy to take more ruck tonight

Footy changes. So much accepted wisdom is no longer relevant. For example I assumed that the dees would be at a disadvantage compared to every other team other than the dogs becuase of the shorter preseason. Why? Because in the 45 odd years i have actively followed footy, that trope was repeated every year (not the demons part - the premiership bit). But in the interview we did with yze on the Demonland podcast, I asked about that and he said the shorter break actually helped, gave us an advantage because the players were with the club longer (ie not having to train alone for so long - tbey now have to train at high intensity 12 months a year, break or no break). Conventional wisdom is that even the best players come back through the twos after a long injury break. But more and more it seems that accross the comp, best 22 players are coming straight back in, as is the case for salo. No doubt it depends on tbe injury eg comng back from a knee injury might play some twos to get some confidence in the knee (though hipwood didn't). The other common rationale seemed to be that players need to regain their touch and get some match fitness, whatever that is. But if a best 22 player is fit and in our case has been training at match like intensity (which is how goody approaches training), then I guess why not bring him straight back in.

From the beginning of the season he has been saying, up till this week, on all his spots on fox and sen that freo aren't the real deal. He maintained that line even as the evidence suggested he was wrong. On his spot on sen (the means test) after the loss to the pies, the second loss in a row, he doubled down. Basically said they weren't up to it. Even joked about flagmantle and the anger he copes from dockers fan. Meanwhile he gives the lions a complete pass for their pathetic loss to the hawks in tassie, despite the fact they gave up 117 points and maybe put a home game in the first week of finals at risk. Freo come out the next week, are super impressive and a clear contender, and roll the unbeaten premiers. The lions get opened up by the giants, a team with a stand in coach in his second game, and are lucky to get a (unconvincing) win. Not a single negative comment about freo or any follow up on the bagging he has been giving them on the first crack. Nothing on the watch list spot on 360 (haven't listened to the means test this week or watched 360 tonight) Shameless.

I agree it is an appealing ban. Glad buddy is not playing.

Hunt's role is the small opposition forward. That's not Hibberd's go - last season he took the dusty type ie strong, medium size. Hunt will likely go to papley.

Fair dinkum Deeerm is a peanut - there was zero chance he was gong to get off. Such incredible irony Derm accusing anyone of insulting our intelligence. The AFL will somehow find a way to let him walk conspiracy palaver is ridiculous.

Agree on all points

No chance he gets off

Sure. So to be clear, i define Sam as 'making it' as being a best 22 selection who holds down a key forward position in the seniors week in, week out. That is not going to happen this year, and that is ok - he can still be on the path to being a first choice selection. I am talking his career, not this year. But if it doesn't happen next season, or at the latest the 2024 season, then by MY definition of making it he hasn't. And it is worth noting that next season, and certainly by the 2024 season, there is a real chance he will behind JVR in the pecking order (though of course BB and Tmac may drop off). If Sam (and others) define making it as being depth and playing VFL football with the occasional run in the ones as making it then he is on track. But i suspect Sam's definition of making it aligns with mine.

I didn't say he was a bust. I said if he can't make it as a key forward he is a bust. A big difference. The club has resigned him so one assumes they think he can make it. And are obviously ok with him being depth, as Weed must be as well (or at least prepared to be at Cassy for significant periods) - at least for this season. But surely part of their thinking is he will replace Tmac as the second key forward as Tmac nears retirement. Let's not forget we used a top ten draft pick on Sam, and as such clearly our hope was that we get a top ten forward. Weed bouncing between Casey and the occasional game in the ones, and being little more than depth, whilst perhaps not a bust as such, is hardly a great return on our investment My own opinion is he won't make it as a key forward. And to be honest that is not a particularly outlandish opinion.

I can't see Weed behind any good as a defender becuase with his size it would have to be in a key post, and he is simply not good enough in the sort of one on one wrestle situations against big forward he would find himself in regularly down back. And i can't see him being a natural intercept type like Liam Jones - the pin up boy for a forward to a defender shift. So, if he can't make it as a key forward the sad reality is he is a bust - at least for us. Which means we have problem in that second tall forward role. Even the biggest Tmac critics and/or Weed fans would surely acknowledge the Tmac v Weed debate is over and the second tall forward role is Tmacs. If Tmac is injured again i think they have to look past Weed as a fill in. JVR is not ready yet, and i don't think will be until next year. So, if not Weed, who comes in? What do people think about Tomlinson playing the second tall forward role? Tomlinson is only slightly shorter and lighter than Weed, is much stronger and much, much better one on one. And crucially he plays with much more intensity than Sam and would halve more contests. If memory serves, whilst predominately a winger and defender with the Giants, Tomlinson played some games at CHF for the them. Having a look at his record he kicked 12 goals in 2018, so perhaps he played forward a bit that year. And having Tomlinson in the team would provide the positional flexibility Tmac provides as he could go back if required (and even, like Tom, to the wing) Thoughts?