binman

Speaking of punting, this is an excellent time of year to make some money. Look for top 4 teams against teams just outside or inside the 8 and back the team pushing for a final 8 spot at the line. It doesn't quite fit the profile, but I'll be loading up on the bombers at tbe 24.5 line against the saints tonight - a game I predict will be low scoring scrap.

As a general rule, I don't back the dees. Except to win grand finals. And I generally back the line not the win If i were setting a market, I'd probably have us a touch longer, but still favourites. The pool would be small at this point in time and the odds for a dees win will almost certainly drift a touch before game day and be close to even money. So, by my reckoning the current odds are a touch unders, so I wouldn't take those odds. But plenty of people have obviously, hence the price.

Ours or rhe lions? We have lost our last three. But the lions have lost 2 of their last 4 and tbe the two wins were far from impressive. They were 5 goals down early against the giants and only the giants woeful defence saved them. And they were woeful in their win against the saints. The saints were had two players concussed by half time (or soon after) and by the last quarter were down to one player on the bench. It's been a long time since I have seen such a low standard game between two good teams.

That's the correct conclusion, but a slighty wrong premise. The bookies frame the initial market. And that is very much based on their assessment of the 'true odds' of a certain event occurring, in this case the dees winning the flag. The better they are at this assessment the more money they make. That is because the art of punting is finding value - which means making your own assessment of the true odds and backing 'overs' (ie over the true odds). Successful punters are good at this assessment (and disciplined enough not to accept 'unders' or search for a bet for a bets sake) and look to take advantage of any overs. So bookies who get that initial price wrong lose money. In this scenario, when the bookies opened the 2022 GF market last year, their assessment of the true odds of the dees winning the flag was something like $3.20 (which was the price the dees opened). From that point the 'market' determines the odds the bookies offer. The market is punters betting. So, early doors, we start winning, look like the best tam in the AFL, and the punters come for us and slam the $3.60. The bookies then respond by trimming the odds of the dees (and 'turning out' the odds of other contenders) to limit the hit to their bottom line if the dees do win the flag and to balance their overall exposure. And we start losing and our price drifts and other contenders tighten. So in fact your conclusion caries even more weight. A punter backing the dees is putting their own hard earned money on us - it is not some unaccountable prognostication. The bigger the pool of money, the more people are backing up their assessment of who will win the flag. And the bigger the pool the more it is dominated by professional punters who make a living out of punting, so are clear eyed and unemotional about their betting choices. For some bet types the pool is so small the price offered for a particular bet isn't a good indication of the true odds. But in big pools the price is an excellent indication of the true odds. There is likely to be something in the order of $1.5 million dollars in the Sportsbet GF pool, so you can be pretty confident $3.60 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning a flag. I'm amazed it hasn't drifted further after our loss to the pies and the news about gawn being out for 5 weeks. What that indicates is that the pros (who are the ones that have the most influence on the price) have not backed any of the other contenders to any great degree and the market still has us as clear favorites to win the flag.

Snap. Me too

Third I think. Only a few minutes after disco knocked himself out.

It's a good question. The AFL listed players all train with the seniors and do all the same fitness work. I assume VFL teams - and non AFL players - also load, but presumably their training is not at the same level of professionalism as the AFL, so the demands are perhaps not as great in teams of how taxing it is (though, its probably not far behind - i wonder if they have GPS trackers for all sessions and games as is the case in the AFL?). Have we seen a drop off after half time in the last 3 weeks? Hard to say because the weather has been variable, and we have had so many more AFL listed players than our oppostion, but on scores alone you could make an argument that yes we have - in two of the games at least. Against Frankston on 29 May we scored 8.4 in the first half and only 2.0 in the second half (from memory the second half was wet - that said Frankston had 6 scoring shots in the first half and 12 in the second half). The following week against the swans we scored 4 first half goals and 8 second half goals - so no drop off there. And last week we scored 11 first half goals and only three second half goals (the pies kicked 2 in the first half and 4 in the second half). It should be noted that it hammered down in the third quarter for a while. But it was sunny for the last i think and we could only manage the one goal.

Excellent points. As dpostive correctly notes we were ahead late in all three losses. So we had our chances to scramble a win. I was really impressed by Freo's win against the hawks for this reason ie they did scramble a win when clearly fatigued. Last year we did well to scramble some wins in this period (though still went 3 losses, 1 draw and 2 wins from rounds 13 -19). The Port, Swans and Bombers games were all good examples of us winning when playing sub optimally. Unfortunately this year the outs and injuries, and in particular the in game injuries, have made things that much harder for us. For context, we were 11-2 at this same stage last year. We are 10-3 now, so in much the same position. I actually think we have played really well in all three losses given the challenges we have faced. Yes loading carries a risk in the short term in terms of losing games we might otherwise win, but we have no chance of winning a flag without loading now. Nor do the Freo, Saints, Lions or the blues (the teams fighting for a top 4 spot - no other team has realistic chance of winning the flag this year) Nothing has changed. We are the best team in the AFL. By a significant margin. That is of course no guarantee we will win this year's flag. By far the biggest determinant of success in the AFL is injury. Always has been and always will be. If we have a bad run with injury between now and the end of the season then we won't win the flag. If we have a good run with injury, i am extremely confident we will win the flag. Goody has said we are in better shape this season than last year. People can scoff all they want, but that is his stated opinion. And i'm happy to accept the word of our head coach. All the hand wringers (i don't count you in this group layzie) should harden up and have some bloody faith. Surely the club has earned that.

Hells bells, i have answered this question multiple times and can't be bothered doing so again, other than to say of course we are not the only team loading ATM and the other contenders ARE struggling with stamina RIGHT now. Don't believe me? Watch the Freo v hawks replay. Freo were clearly fatigued and had none of the zip they had against us. The commentators made that very point ie that Freo clearly didn't have their normally run and speed. Why not? And then watch the Lions v saints replay. You will never see two more fatigued teams. Both looked completely gassed almost from the get go. Fumbles, skill execution issues, woeful kicks, inability to get back and defend, players on their haunches from early in the game etc etc. This from two top 4 aspirants. Sound familiar? In commentary, Brown made the observation on multiple occasion that the lions looked exhausted. The saints were equally gassed - and that was before the lost 2 players during the game. After that point they could barely raise a gallop.

Not a single person has said issues like absent players, illness, in game injuries and oppo tactics are not factors in our form But they are not the biggest factor, even collectively. Loading is the biggest factor. Just as it was last year. And is worth noting that loading directly exacerbates issues like absent players, illness, in game injuries and even oppo tactics (wow teams are gong though the corridor - they must have solved the puzzle; just like last year - until they didn't) The exact same debate raged for six weeks or so last year, and at the same point in the season. I could link to any number of posts where i said loading was the biggest factor and any number of posts rubbishing that opinion. The posters rubbishing that opinion will no doubt disagree, but i was proved correct. Anyway, as i have said, happy for you to believe that loading is not having the impact i, and many others, think it is.

Another big difference is that in all three losses we have key injuries during games. And In each case it included key defenders. Our defensive structures have fallen apart and we haven’t been able to stop intercept marks down back This game was insane. At one point, Turner, petty and gawn all came off injured within a few minutes.

To he honest, my biggest concern is injury We had a blessed run last season. I'd be guessing, but I doubt we lost more than 25 odd games (40 if you include tomo) to injury of our best 22. If you include covid protocols and flu we'd be close to 30 best 22 already. To make matters worse, plenty of players seem to be carrying something and Max gets smashed every game. We need a good run with injury from here.

That makes no sense at all. But, whatever. As I have posted before, time won't tell for you because your mind is made up. I think we will win seven more home and away games. And win all three finals we play in, including of course, a back to back flag. And just like last year, I'll wait to the odds stop drifting (I backed us straight after our loss to the dogs in round 19) and I'll load up on us big time to win the flag.

Do you mean like last year? - After the bye we very average in our scrappy 11 point win against the bombers in round 15 - were woeful and couldn't run past our shadow in our loss to the giants in round 16 - as Max said post game, we freshened up for the Port game, and won in round 17 - we were woeful and flat in our draw against the Hawks in round 18 - then got rolled by the dogs in round 19 So, from round 13 to round 19 we went three losses, one draw and two wins. From that point we caught fire and were clearly the fittest side in the competition for the remainder of the season and didn't lose anorher game If you ask me, the 'loading narrative' held up pretty well. But I guess you'd argue the opposite. And perhaps put our remarkable form turn around to magic fairy dust and dumb luck.

Maybe. But i reckon discussing it goes against the footballer's code to never, under any circumstances provide any contextual info that even remotely could be perceived as making an excuse. And becuase ex footballers have always dominated the coverage of the game, that stupid mantra has infected the footy media.

This is the corresponding post game thread from last year. It makes for interesting reading in terms of how similar it is to this thread in terms of trying to explain our terrible form. It is more negative, which is understandable because we hadn't yet played one of the most dominant finals series of all time and won out first flag in 57 years. And it's not the game day thread, so as the thread goes on people have had time to process the loss and are not as out there with their comments. Even so, some of the post are incredibly negative - and woefully wrong as history proved. If you supported another team and came to Demonland mid 2021 to get a handle on how likely it was the dees would win the flag, figuring dees fans would have good read on the situation, if you read the 2021 Queen's post game threadyou would have given the dees no chance of winning a flag.

I don't get this layzie Why is it supposed to be an afterthought, not a hot topic of conversation? Even if, like your good self, you are not convinced about loading, but are not ruling it out, i reckon it SHOULD be a hot topic of conversation. The thing i find bizarre is it's not a topic that is discussed AT ALL by the so called football analysts and media people when trying to work out what is happening at the dees. Instead they cast around for all manner of causes and theories to explain our slump. Just as they did last year, and in 2018, 2019 and 2020 to explain the ultimate premiership winner's mid season form slumps (remarkably similar to ours). I mean, even if you don't buy loading, or think it only has a minor impact, surely the fact the last four premiers' seasons have followed almost the identical pattern (start strong and bank wins, mid season form slump including some truly mystifying losses to crap teams, finishing the season full of running and all having a very similar number of wins) would be worth noting and exploring. It's possible the fact the last four premiers have followed an almost identical pattern on the way to their flag is simply a coincidence . But logic suggests that it is unlikely to be the case. And even if it is, the fact we are mirroring that same pattern this year is worthy of analysis and discussion. Instead they all ignore it all together. After 8 rounds or so David King said 'Be very afraid, Melbourne are going at about 70 per cent of last year, and they’re already proving they’re 50 per cent better than the rest of the competition'. We completely drop off a cliff and go from one of the fittest sides to one that getting overrun in second halves - again, just as we did last season at the same point in time. And David King jumps off us, is all symptoms but can't nail a cause. And doesn't even touch on loading as a potential factor. Bizarre. What i find really curious is why loading it is not discussed - even if only to debunk it - by any of the analysts, ex footballers or commentators. In other words, why isn't it a hot topic of conversation? (I have made this point any number of times, but to be clear, i don't think loading is the only factor contributing to our currently predictable form slump. I do think it is the MAIN factor, but our injuries, the impact of covid and the flu, the form of individual players, other teams developing good plans to negate our strengths etc etc are all factors too)

I said to my mate yesterday that my idea of hell would be attending a big game, like a final, at the G, have cox go off AND the crowd chanting USA, USA- such as occurred in the 2018 preliminary. Cox then started dominating - even kicked a goal on the run from 50! I thought to myself that at least the crowd didn't start chanting. Then walking down the stairs at the back of tbe ponsford a big bunch of pussed young blokes, all pies fans, start chanting 'dees are [censored]', followed up with, you guessed it USA, USA. Jesus wept.

I did, in large because two of my mates who I was sitting wirh were screaming at us to move rhe ball all quarter! I definitely think we were looking to slow rhe game down and hold the pies. But my theory is they did so, not so much to conserve energy for an assault in the last, but to conserve energy full stop. By that I mean, you could see they were gassed. It doesn't actually matter what the cause was, their fatigue could not be more obvious (tracc was totally gassed for instance and had no power at all in terms of bursting from stoppages). And equally you could see that the pies were less fatigued. So I reckon the dees were trying to take the speed completely out of the game as that was the best way to stay in the contest. The pies eventually got control of the tempo and put speed on tbe ball. And, just like freo and the swans, ran over the top of us. Again, leaving aside the cause (because lthe idea of loading seems to be very triggering for some people) it was as clear as day that we simply couldn't go with them.

I wonder if it is the so called "four core' stats that champion data aggregate to create a 'pressure' rating. I can't recall exactly what the four stats are - one is 'without the ball' (which if I understand includes stuff iike defensive running and spread) .I'm not sure if collectively those four things define pressure. They might, but it's interesting because our contested ball and tackle numbers, which are measures to some degree of pressure, are pretty much the same as last year. King and montagna have been banging on about it all season - and mentioned before the freo game that we were number one in the championship data 'core four' in 2021, but were 18th this year. There's a couple of queries I have in regard to that bit of data. The 2021 ranking was post the full season. What was it at the corresponding stage in 2021 (ie at tgis point in the season). That is important contextual because you are not comparing apples and apples otherwise The other query is why there has been such a dramatic drop in that measure (1st to 18th). God bless his cotton socks, robbo asked king and montagna why there had been such a drop, and followed up with 'do you rhibk it is deliberate, or some such. Unsurprisingly, neither had an answer for either question. Go figure. Very interesting questions though, and I an to explore them on tbe podcast tonight. Dies anyone have and theories or hypothetical answers to those two questions?

I'm confused. Do you want nev to facepalm - but only if he is a coward? But if he were to facepalm your bemusing post, given your challenge, wouldn't that be courageous? But if facepalming your post is courageous, then he would not be a coward in doing so.. So then can't facepalm because he is not a coward. Personally, if was nev, o would use the laughing emoji. Because the post, like pretty much every one of your posts, is pure comedy gold. By the by, on the topic of cowardly posting behaviour, I don't recall you posting much, if at all, during our run of 17 straight wins. But, now, with tge cover if 3 losses you suddenly appear with more of your, we are woeful, contributions. So very courageous. Not.

When you say we are 17th in pressure, what metric are you using?

Let the nervus Nellie's and doomsayers come at us. Let the odds drift a bit more from 3.50 you can now get. And load up on us to win the flag.

VR is the real deal. A natural footballer, a natural forward who has great forward craft and as you say plays with aggression. The thing i love most about him hover is how super competitive he is as evidenced by his attack on the ball and his second and third efforts.

Yep you're probably right. Freo looked fatigued to my eye, and so i thought it wss a really meritorious win. They're a good team and have more genuinely fast players than us, which gives them an x factor.