binman

And a smart play by Gus. Gus is smart enough to know that his reputation can only be enhanced by showing loyalty, which can only help any post football career. And if he is keen to go into the media, being a one club player, hopefully with a couple of flags in his resume, helps his profile and therefore bargaining power. And in terms of his profile, Melbourne is the place to be.

Not quite echo through the ages - but it's a start!

Supposedly will clear by the arvo. Deck will still be wet, but i presume it drains ok. The problem is the ground is in woeful condition so it will be shifting like crazy i suspect. Which will negate a bit of the advantage the dockers have with leg speed and perhaps make their switch and flick it around style more challenging. Our big advantage over the dockers is our bulls in the middle. The conditions should suit Viney, Oliver and Trac and i reckon their mids will struggle big time to contain them.

Odds watch. Opened 1.90 equal favs, which seemed fair enough given the form lines of both sides, the relative ladder positions and the fact the game is on freo's home deck. And surely no-one would be keen to trust us with their money given we are apparently not hungry or ruthless enough Into 1.86 soon after. Into 1.80 by Tuesday (even after it was announced bb wasn't playing). Into 1.77 on Wednesday. Remarkably, on game day, now into 1.72. The weather might be a factor, but today's forecast is that whilst plenty of rain will fall today, and so the ground will be slippery, it will clear by the arvo. I wonder if Lobb is going to be late out? May drift, but unlikely to get into anything shorter than 1.80. The pros must really think we will magically rediscover our 'hunger'. Because being people who make a living out of punting by being hard nosed, unemotional realists put a lot of stock in such nebulous concepts.

I'm guessing the half unicorn wasn't as rare?

And his defensive running was woeful.

What did they say?

Yep. But i wonder i that is more to do with his reading of the flight as opposed to being out muscled.

So few words. So many grammatical errors.

Which is yet another reason i'm bullish about this game. No-one could seriously be worried about defence could they?

I do wonder if Weed would be better fit for a team like say the bombers or swans who like to engineer space and one on ones inside their 50 with quick ball movement of HB. He is actually a terrific mark on the Dunstall style hard lead. He is an old school, from the square forward i reckon and needs leading lanes to show his best

I agree. Personally i reckon his two biggest weaknesses are: He often seems to have a half second delay in reacting when a second effort is required. He often makes a second effort (though sadly not always), but because of that delay it usually doesn't impact the contest. Going again just does not seem to be instinctive, unlike say JVR He often seems to misjudge the flight of the ball and therefore the ultimate landing point. Compare him to Fritsch, who reads the flight so well and puts himself in the right spot to mark it. Someone in another thread mentioned they thought he might need contact lenses. I'm sure he would use use them if he needed them, but i get where they were coming from as he seems to have issues with depth perception

I don't expect him to be different. I hope he will be different.

Yes, that is what i mean. BB is better in these contests - which are the majority of the contest our talls are involved in. Agree Weed is much better when he gets a chance to run and jump at contests. He looks so much better when he has space. But with our method (ie kick to big packs, little separation for forwards, crowded inside 50s etc etc) he gets bugger all opportunities to run and jump at contests. Weed has got maybe one, two max, chances to lock in the second tall positions. I hope he takes his chance.

Because, as I said, he competes hard in the air and rarely gets outmarked when up and about. Weed doesn't compete hard on the air, and often gets outmarked, even when he is up.and about.

I see Smith is back this week. The more I think of it, the more I like the idea of Smith playing the second tall role. He is everything weed isn't - high intensity, hard at it and loves the contest. And I've always liked the idea of him as a forward - his chaos style, speed and athleticism suits what we need down there, which is almost the forward equivalent of a zone off defender ie get across to aerial contests and either take a big grab or failing that make sure the ball comes to ground. And Smith could also be used as defensive forward to nullify players like Aliir. At 191 cms, he's six centimeters shorter than weed (but 3cms taller than fritter), so obviously he's not going to be a genuine tall. But that is offset somewhat by his huge leap. Accurate kick for goal too. And perhaps creates a match up issue as he is pretty quick and with his height and leap, probably needs a reasonably big defender.

BB's pressure doesn't worry me so much as he competes hard in the air, which i'm not even sure if that is factored into the pressure rating that has been bandied about Weed's pressure absolutely worries me - on the ground and in the air. Weed just disappeared in the second half against the dogs in terms of possessions, marks etc. Which wouldn't be such an issue if he applied big pressure in the air and on the ground. Which he didn't - not even close.

I'm still convinced we will end up with the two talls - not sure if that wik be this week now as i cant see Mitch Brown coming into the side, and JVR is a long shot to be selected, at least this week (i have sneaky feeling he might get a shot on the eve of finals). If BB is right to go next week, and Weed plays ok, i suspect they will both be selected next week

I used to care about players wanting to leave. But not since Gerard Healy left the club to go to the Swans. Outside of Robbie, our best player in that team by a mile. I still wonder how 1987 would have turned out if he didn't abandon the club and his brother. Turncoat. I was furious at the time. He still left. Now i could care less - if Gus wants out, see you later. He is not playing in our midfield. So if that's what he wants, its not going to happen I don't begrudge him trying to to maximize his contract, or explore his options. But i would lose a bit of respect for him, as the great teams always have gun players who have to take a pay haircut to help the cause, Hodge being an example if IIRC. And are celebrated for that sacrifice post career.

This post is funny coincidence. As you posted, i was just writing this on another thread: I was pretty confident our odds would drift a bit (from the 1.86 available yesterday), at least into even money (which is how we opened for this game), particularly after the news BB was still out. But i just checked then, and we have actually come in and are now into $1.80 to win. Which, given we are only two days out from the game (and therefore the pool is pretty big and somewhat immune from big price swings) suggests the pros considered the 1.90 opening quote and the 1.86 available yesterday were both overs, and have invested accordingly, forcing the price down. We still might drift a touch, and maybe even back to even money, but only if the pros think the 2.05 you can currently get for Freo is overs. Given we are playing this game on their home deck, and their form over the last few weeks is at least on par with ours, 1.80 favoritism suggest the market is pretty bullish about our chances. (nb: as i noted in another thread, odds are just an expression of probability. So of course the fact we are favorite for the game doesn't mean we win, or if we do the bookies have got it wrong. At 1.80 favorites, if we play this game 10 times we win aprox 5.5 times and LOSE 4.5 times. Even money is 50 50)

I was pretty confident our odds would drift a bit, at least into even money (which is how we opened for this game), particularly after the news BB was still out. But i just checked then, and we have actually come in and are now into $1.80 to win. Which, given we are only two days out from the game (and therefore the pool is pretty big and somewhat immune from big price swings) suggests the pros considered the 1.90 opening quote and the 1.86 available yesterday were both overs, and have invested accordingly, forcing the price down. We still might drift a touch, and maybe even back to even money, but only if the pros think the 2.05 you can currently get for Freo is overs. Given we are playing this game on their home deck, and their form over the last few weeks is at least on par with ours, 1.80 favoritism suggest the market is pretty bullish about our chances. (nb: as i noted in another thread, odds are just an expression of probability. So of course the fact we are favorite for the game doesn't mean we win, or if we do the bookies have got it wrong. At 1.80 favorites, if we play this game 10 times we win aprox 5.5 times and LOSE 4.5 times. Even money is 50 50)

For the love of god (the deity, not the much loved rock band from Geelong, or the much loved ex Geelong player for that matter) please don't encourage Andy to go anywhere near a ladder predictor. Andy is flying across to Perth to watch us. I fear that if we lose, by the time he touches down back at Tulla he will have done every possible combination and somehow landed on us missing the finals as the most likely outcome.

Sums up my feeling well. I'd add a comment. I think there is a risk of seeing last year with rose coloured glasses, and stretching the ophthalmological analogy, seeing the whole season though the lens of our performance in the finals. The GF was the best football we played all season in 2021. none of our games this year have come close to that mark, not even the lions game. So lots of performances, even our wins, that have been miles of the standard we all know we can play at. That is frustrating. Last year we didn't have the finals and GF as benchmarks. Every win was gold, but we collectively feared our best would not be good enough. And not without some justification. In reality, up till the corresponding point in last year's season we played a fair bit of average footy. And i don't just mean in the winter of our discontent phase. I also mean during our unbeaten run in the first half of the season. If there is any doubt about that you only need to revisit the post game threads for most of our wins. In my opinion, up to and including round 19, there was only one complete performance that came within coee of our finals level - the round 11 game against the doags. The losses speak for themselves, but even many our wins were scrappy affairs where struggled with many of the same issues we are struggling with this year - eg forward line connection, inaccuracy, not putting teams away etc etc, But a big difference between this year and last year (after 19 rounds, not the full 2021 season) is last season we came from behind in a lot of games. Which is, always super exciting, and makes for memorable wins, as pies fans can attest this season In many of our win this year we have got a lead and then just controlled the match. Much less exciting. And certainly less memorable, becuase often the result has not been in doubt, And in some of our losses the result has not been in doubt halfway through the last quarter (eg the freo game). So again, not very exciting. For whatever reason, we never really tried to control the tempo of the dogs game (or did and failed to do so - which i don't buy to be honest), and lost as a result. But it was arguably the most exciting game of the year.

Ouch, BB out is a blow

Depends what metric you want use - the Demonland hand wringing metric or the betting market metrics. On the former, we are no chance this Friday night. On the latter, we are currently 1.86 favourites.