binman

I thought that was the definition of a realist

Question: Harry Petty does a brilliant job one on one one against Curnow to spoil and not infringe, only just hitting Curnow's outstretched arms as happens in 50 aerial contests a match. Yet the umpire pays a free. Ok, that's the benchmark for a marking infringement. Brown and Gawn get scragged and their arms held and/or smashed at every aerial contest they are engaged in in and yet receive barely a single free between them. What up with that? P.S - asking for a friend.

Agree. We are definitely struggling to run our games relative to our opposition at the moment. In the last half of q4 the blues and the pies were winning the critical contests and looked the stronger sides. And the real tell was our inability to get overlap run and waves of players to transition the ball and create scoring chains Which is one reason I thought our win against the blues was so meritorious. But if you support the concept of the dees having implemented a carefully calibrated periodisation program, then we are still on the upward trajectory physically and weeks away from our peak. Whereas the pies and the blues are probably close to their peak. Which was helpful for them against us as both games were at finals like intensity levels. A couple of contextual things to consider in comparing this year's physical readiness compared to last year. The lighting was no doubt a factor in the Eagles game, but the fact remains the eagles ran out the 2021 round 21 game better. And the crows came back from a sizeable deficit in the second half of the round 22 game, to get within four goals, before three very late goals by us padded the margin. And that game was little more than a run around compared to the intensity of the blues game. The lions game is fascinating in terms of the parallels with last year's round 23 game. We are playing a top 4 team, on their home deck where they have a huge home ground advantage and a win could help ensure a top 2 finish for us. Geelong has a huge amount riding on that game last year as a win would mean they didn't have to play port at home in the qualifying final. The lions have even more riding on it than the cats did. They lose and they drop to 6th, as might we. That scenario has a curious echo of last year too, in that the lions were the beneficiary of the dog's stumble against Port, and luckily scrapped into the top 4 at the dog's expense.

When it comes to the chances of us winning the flag, one advantage the pessimists have over the optimists is that the are more likely to be proven correct.

I don't think i'll be collecting on that preseason bet!

And what does it mean for he relative strength of the opposition? For a team that nearly finished top of the ladder last season and made a prelim, the Cats have had incredibly soft draw, made easer by nearly half their games at a ground that arguably gives them the biggest home ground advantage of any in the AFL (perhaps line ball with the Gabba) The pies had a soft draw courtesy of not making final's last year, which is fair enough under the AFL's stupid equalization 'fixture' system. Brisbane have had a pretty tough draw, but have an amazing record at the Gabba and so get a, deserved, leg up there. And the Swans draw was not super strong. By contrast we have had arguably the hardest draw of any team with a ridiculous schedule and multiple short breaks. In our last three games we have beaten two other top 8 teams - a knock some had on us prior to the freo game (ie our record against top 8 teams). And we almost beat another in the pies, in arguably our best performance of the year. The home and away season is almost done, all teams have played each other at least once, and therefore the ladder is a pretty good representation of the relative strength of every team. We are currently second on the ladder, which makes for a good argument for the dees being one of the two best teams in the AFL - better than 16 other teams, six of which will be possible finals opponents. The punters, not coincidentally, have us clear second favorites to win the flag behind ladder leader, Geelong.

Close. Apparently he got hit by the Karma bus.

The abductor strain is bulltish. i have it on good authority cera is out is for an entirely unrelated injury and an incident the blues are apparently desperate to keep under wraps. Good luck with that.

Yep fair enough. I suspect once the season is done we will hear that quite few plyer have been carrying things this year. Maxy has never looked right all season to my eye, nor May since his out with concussion. You can add Salo, Rivers, Jordon and Lever as well i reckon.

All reasonable points. It is clear burgess had a particular philosophy about playing through injury and not resting players, and it would appear that Griffith has the same philosophy. Under Burgess lots of players played though niggles and soreness - maxy being an obvious one. From memory in that Burgo-Brucky podcast he speaks on this very topic and why he thinks it was factor in our success. I find it hard to assess that philosophy, but see what you are saying, particularly in regard to playing players who are hampered when there are players who appear less so at Casey - though presumably that is more Goody's call than Griffiths, who would just tick of, in collaboration with the medical staff, that a particular player is good to go. That said i have total confidence that no player's welfare is being put at risk (not suggesting you are saying it is). And i reckon Burgess and Griffith could both point to the remarkably low number of soft tissue injuries we have had in the last 3 seasons as indication the program is effective. How many have we had this year?

Its pretty long bow to be accusing the fitness team (and by extension the club) of being reckless, particularly given i'm assuming - and i stand to be corrected - that you don't have inside knowledge of their program or specific expertise in sport science.

Binman hoping harmes comes in.

I'm calling Garry Baker as we speak. Seeing if we can work something out.

No harmes, no foul.

No changes

Carlton name cripps. They are a poor man's Collingwood

Good points, and i don't disagree with them. By similar game plans i mean the philosophy of forward half, territory football. Get it inside 50. Trap it inside 50. Win contested ball and in post clearance contested ball. Turn it over with pressure and score. The Cats have basically acknowledged their chip and hold style that West Coast perfected will no longer cut it and have gone all out territory. Same for the pies - which is not surprising given McRae's' time at the tigers. I'm not quite sure about the Swans, but they definitely look to get territory, as do Freo

Brilliant posts AoB. Three reflections. The first relates to your comment that 'everyone is setting themselves up to win against the prevailing style'. I have been reflecting on the idea that other teams 'have worked us out'. Sure opposition coaches might look to tactically negate our strengths, but that had always been thus in footy. It seems to me that it is less about being worked out, more about other teams adopting our method, just as we adopted and adapted that of the tigers. So, the top 3 teams on the ladder (and arguably the fourth team) with only 2 games to go, have very similar game plans, at least in terms of philosophy. And they do so because it is the premiership model atm. Last year, arguably only the tigers and the dees fully employed that model (all teams value contested ball). I am more and more of the opinion that goody recognises that other teams have adopted our successful model and is making changes to the way we play to increase our chances of winning the flag this year. Goody had often said the finals is a different season. It's worth remembering in this context that for much of all three finals last year we played ballistic, high tempo, high scoring football. A style not dissimilar to that of the pies this year, and very similar to how we played against the dogs and in the first half against the pies. The second reflection relates to your zigging and zagging idea, sort of. The pies use Nick daicos ad a weapon off half back with his incisive kicking. That's not a radical move, we have salo for example, but daicos drives their offence more. I think we bafly need bowey's kicking skills. The final reflection was how much I love the phrase 'find the seams in the defence'. It perfectly captures the key challenge in all team sports The pies certainly found the seams in our defence.

Maxy , Fritter, Kozzie and Tracc all say hi

He didn't get much love on here for that goal. Stood up when needed and the team should have made sure it was a winning goal.

A similar logic has fundamentally changed how basketball is played in the NBA. In simple terms, the data showed that teams score more on average by shooting a higher ratio of 3 point shots, despite the much lower percentages of them being made compared to 2 point shots. The highest percentage shot in basketball is from under the hoop. And so for a long time the NBA model involved working it inside to monster centres. I read it years ago, but can't recall the specific ratio (axis of bob or George will know). But for illustration lets say in the 80s and 90s it was 80% 2 point shots and 20% 3 point shots Now it is a three point shootathon, with maybe a 60-40 split (again I'm guessing here). Scores have gone up and the type of players making the NBA is changing in terms of their role and physique. Fewer crazy big centres, more athletic players who can play multiple positions. To be honest, I don't like watching the NBA as much now as I liked the more physical crash and bash style in the 80s. It was more like footy. Funnily enough, you could argue footy has gone the opposite way, and perhaps for the same reason ie data driven. The premiership model now is forward half, territory football. Get it inside 50. Trap it inside 50. Win contested ball and in post clearance contested ball. Turn it over with pressure and score. Get shots on goal. Often from congestion, stoppages, or crappy angles. If you miss, set up and trap it in. The first 10 mins of the third quarter against the pies was the perfect example of the model. That model jibes with the data above re increased scoring over the journey with increased scoring shots. Why I say the AFL has gone the opposite way is that the best type of player for the forward half combat model is strong bulls who can compete in the clinches. Almost like rugby players. Sure you still need some silky skilled players, but not as many as say 10-15 years ago.

Indeed. We weren't particularly impressive in that game at all. As you say Fritters 3 late goals were in tbe last 3 mins, the last two in the last 90 seconds of the game. I watched the suns game ahead of the freo game, and they were witches hats for almost all the game. Their season had already finished. The two corresponding games this season have been far more impressive performances.

I'll see what I can do.

I was speaking to pretty committed doggies fans a few weeks back, just after Ugle Hagan had been dropped, he said the big knock on him was his defensive work and that he sometimes got knocked out of contests too easily, and lacks a bit of mongrel The former is probably a very common issue for young gun forwards who dominated as juniors. The latter is common for all young key forwards. Since he has come back in to the side he seem to have improved a lot in both areas, which is huge positive i reckon ie improve weaknesses in a short time frame. He looks to be flying at the ball more aggressively. The kid can play and in 3-4 years will be scary good.

Really good points. For me it comes down to whether they do in fact have another gear they can go to, as they were by far the most impressive opponent we have played this year, the cats included. That said everything that could go right, did go right for them. And we still nearly won. But if they are anywhere near their physical peak atm in terms of preparation sustaining that ballistic style of football will be extraordinarily difficult. In that sense they really remind me of us in 2018. The super high tempo, players rushing off the half bank flank, high press model we employed in the back half of that season was always gong to be hard to sustain - and we hit a massive wall on prelim day (and were outclassed by the eventual premier). The other similarity was that like the pies this year, we rode a wave of momentum and fan support into the finals. That first final against the cast was insane. The closest thing to that experience for me was last Friday's game. Unfortunately this time the wave was black and white.