DeeSpencer

Theory: If we were picking anyone but Jackson we would've traded that information with a journo for inside info on what teams 7-15 are doing. And we'd also look pretty silly for getting Jackson's hopes up. I think we're past the point of people debating it.

So Collingwood miss out on winning a premiership by one fluke kick from Sheed and: Grundy - first round pick De Goey - not a midfielder, not a key forward - top 5 pick Jaiden Stephenson - not a midfielder, not a key forward - pick 6 Are they all bad picks? They look like excellent picks if you ask me. Yes you can win a grand final without a gun ruck and yes gun rucks can be nullified by lesser opponents but good taggers shut out good midfielders a lot of the time too. And plenty of finals have featured pretty average defenders shut down good forwards. Nick Riewoldt got comfortably held against the Pies in his absolute prime by a young Nathan Brown and Ben Reid IIRC. Joel Hamling (with an assist from Dale Morris) shut down Buddy. Zaine Cordy and Jacob Townsend are premiership winning CHF's in recent years.

Gold Coast aren’t taking him obviously. But reports had us, Adelaide, GWS and Freo all very keen. That’s picks 3, 4, 6, 7. And Sydney keep things close. He’s not a unanimous choice at 3 but I don’t see clubs kicking the door down for any of the other top 7 guys. Ash seems popular, but my guess is clubs would be split between those 2 and Young, Flanders and Stephens.

Maybe we need to rethink the way we acclimatise Jackson to Melbourne. The current plan seems to be boarding with a caring host family then quickly in to a share house with team mates in a nice inner city suburb with lots of things to see and do. We might be better off just dumping him in a dilapidated house in Cranbourne (near to Casey) or even better Frankston (right by the beach) with a few meth addicted neighbours and plenty of bogan in the air. Buy him a jetski and he won't even know the difference (until June).

Absolutely, but I just used Swallow as an example because he really faded down the stretch as the game adapted and he was also a WA captain with excellent leadership skills and selfless play. One dimensional players are certainly on the decline if you look at Green also dropping down the order.

I just don't see us needing to keep 2 spots open given there's significant doubts over keeping both players and that unfortunately list spots often open up prior to March. There's no hurry to give Bennell a spot that's for sure and Brown should only get one if we really think he's best 22.

Selwood's been an absolute champion but I think the way the Tigers have changed the modern game is challenging recruiters and coaches on just what the value of a Selwood type player is worth. An absolute champion is clearly great but a lesser imitation might not be all that valuable. At 183cm Robertson isn't a big body, he's a good all round athlete but not off the charts in speed or fitness, isn't a great or maybe even a good kick, can't really play more than 1 position well. Richmond are rolling out midfielders who are mostly faster and more skilful, therefore also more versatile. Or bigger bodies like Caddy. As I said in an earlier thread if he's Selwood you have to take him, but if he's closer to an Andrew Swallow with the way the game is going you look elsewhere.

Yep that's another option, either way I significantly doubt he's a pick 28 chance. Twomey has us down for Elijah Taylor, Trent Rivers or Thomson Dow as the chances, hopefully one of those guys slip

Then they kind of tricked GWS to trade up with Adelaide, which also tipped the Giants hand that they were getting ahead of a bid. Seems incredibly low risk for the Swans to bid. Surely Freo bid just to keep them honest. GWS aren’t taking picks 40, 59 and 60, they are using them to match!

The only thing I can think of here is that Sydney don’t want to encourage teams to make high bids on academy picks given they have a few coming next year.

Nic Nat on the ground - hopefully, follows up with excellent movement and burst from packs, lays a mean tackle and kicking and marking need improvement Ryder in the ruck - sure, sub 200cm ruck who has the leap and timing to easily compete with bigger men but isn't dominant at hit outs Kennedy esk in the air? Not sure. He has size and he has mobility to be very dangerous on the lead like Kennedy but a ruck with limited forward experience is unlikely to match up to probably the best mark of the last decade.

Sokol more of an option if we trade our future 4th for a current 4th and grab him in the 60’s than with 28. We need a high quality kid with that earlier pick. Possibly a key defender but ideally a classy quick runner.

Did Freo punk us? Trade us pick 8, we'll take Dev Robertson, you don't want or need him anyway. Ok done. Drafts Serong/Stephens, with Carlton taking the other and then leaves us out of the better midfielders?

Tomlinson - cash/security, he loved the Giants Kelly - significant family reasons, as far as I can tell he liked Geelong but his family didn't E Langdon - more to that story Betts - nope, he's already gone 'home' to South Australia once, clearly Crows shedding cap space Patton - nope, salary dump Howard - not even from Victoria Z Smith - nope, never plays at Geelong Keath - maybe, but a big contract at his age was surely the number 1 factor Cutler - nope, couldn't get a game at Brisbane Z Jones - maybe, but the Saints clearly had a bigger need than the Swans for him Bonar - nope, salary dump Acres - didn't even want to leave When players have a reason to leave they often go home to the state they are from. That makes perfect sense. But largely there's been a contract dispute or contract opportunity, lack of game time, coaching issues, too many good players/salary dump (GWS/Syd) or too few good players resulting in guys leaving a bad situation (Gold Coast). Who are the regular best 22 players in good regular finals teams - non GWS - from that list. 1. Jake Lever - clear contract dispute 2. Charlie Cameron - went to where he went to school not even his families home 3. Hannebery - a salary cap dump from the Swans 4. Hogan - all sorts of stuff going on there 5. Zak Jones (if you believe Sydney will bounce back to being a good side) -stayed in Sydney a long time and got an opportunity at the Saints for a contract 6. Kelly A good team with the right contract will keep the vast majority of their best players without any issues.

I said very few, not none. Franklin didn't go home, so he's irrelevant to the go home factor. Kelly had a partner, 3 kids under 5 and two with Autism. In a fairer world he never would've been drafted interstate to begin with. In fact had there been live trading I think he would've been treated like a defacto academy player and had the WA clubs trade up for him once he got out of the first round. Cripps, Rich, Duncan, Conigilio, Harry Taylor, Cale Hooker and so many other good WA players have had long careers at one club and others like Cameron, Franklin and O'Meara have had their reasons to move to different non WA teams. Unless there's significant family pull or circumstances the go home factor is minimal for happy players.

That's not what Hogan did though was it. In fact kind of the opposite. My concerns with Jackson are that we don't develop him properly. Which means more than a few trips out to Casey. Time spent playing CHB to learn how key forwards move and to test his skills. Time spent playing CHF up the ground and maybe even some time on ball and on the wing. Plus proper skill development - mostly kicking and marking as well as athletic development. Hogan was so good in his first season that we didn't develop him as a player or as a person. Very few players go home if they are drafted to good clubs that put the right work in to them.

The only thing we have to trade up with is a future 4th round pick. And my guess is the best we could do by offering pick 28 and a future 4th round pick is pick 26, maybe pick 25 if we get very lucky.

Kemp has all the pitfalls of a tweener (up and down impact, inconsistency), the ACL tear and some suspect kicking as well. I don't think he was ever as highly rated by clubs as he has been on here. Dev Robertson is a good player and I'd still be surprised that Freo don't lock him in as a high character and no fuss selection given their current midfield is Fyfe and not much more in terms of locked in pieces. He'd be a bit of a culture changer there. But it's hard to watch Melbourne and think what we really need is an inside mid with a suspect kicking action. It's Stephens, Serong, Young (all gone) and maybe Bergman who I'd be more surprised we aren't or wouldn't be picking. If 2 of the better drafting sides in recent history in the Bulldogs and the Hawks are after Pickett then we aren't exactly in poor company.

I saw the drill and saw a few players get up sore and a number of dangerous collisions. When you watch games you know injuries are unavoidable. If you’re having that same feeling in a specific drill in November I think you’re doing something wrong.

On second thoughts I thought it was right haha. Can’t even remember now!

I was surprised Oliver came back so quickly, but less surprised because it’s Oliver. And I don’t expect Petracca to miss significant time. But I think we’ve had a couple of warning signs with 2 of our best players being at a minimum very sore. Otherwise I think the intensity and work ethic is really good and the coaches are running the right kind of drills. Attacking quick hands with plenty of run.

Crumber - someone who hits the packs and bursts out with acceleration and agility. And more importantly Forward pressure - agility, burst, power. They athletic requirements for that role is quick, twitchy and ideally powerful guy. Even without dodgy calves Bennell is a different type of athlete.

Bennell could sure add some skill to the forward line but he's a different style of athlete even at his peak. He's smooth and glides across the turf. If Indigenous players have an artistry to their games then in music terms Harley is smooth jazz, Kossie is heavy metal.

There are no draft experts apart from the recruiters. With all due respect to Cal Twomey - who is dramatically improving his reporting and presenting and Matt Balmer as far as I know they don't watch enough footy to be called experts. Maybe the other guys from AFL Draft Central could be close. And Knightmare might qualify ..just. Although the question is how long and how thoroughly has he been at it and what access he gets to players, data, medicals, psych profiles etc. Pickett is seemingly the same height and body shape as Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti who at his physical peak is listed as 171cm and 76-79kg. AMT doesn't seem to struggle to bring down defenders. AMT is 30 goals, 15 goal assists per season and 12 disposals, 4 tackles per game player. When he kicks a goal Essendon win. When he goes goal less Essendon lose. Entering the system at 18 Pickett should reach a higher ceiling on skill and physical development but I'd suggest he's somewhere between an AMT and a Cyril Rioli. Which is about where Dan Rioli fits as well. Pick 10, pick 15, pick 20.. I don't know. Trying to turn Oliver or Viney in to pressure forwards? Nope. For one they are too important in the midfield. But otherwise they don't have the cat like reflexes and natural reading of the play. We can survive with lesser options trained in the defensive skills - Chandler/Bedford, ANB, Spargo, hopefully a fit Hannan but the truly special defensive pressure guys have special movement skills and innate reflexes.

Anyway. Got there at about 9:40. 40 minutes late or 50 minutes early. Melbourne traffic... Rehab: Baker doing some kind of backwards walk with a trainer and elastic bands Hannan having a wander around the boundary Tomlinson - who looks very fit and light - jogging, headed off pretty early Petty, Vanders, Bradtke doing sprints No Melksham, KK or Spargo that I could see. First drill I really paid attention to was a 5 on 3 kicking in a 50 by 50 box. The group I had included Gus Brayshaw in the 43 jumper. Honestly it suits him, the 4 and 3 both have nice shapes that work with his angular body and face. I think he should keep it permanently. He doesn't look as thin as say Harmes and Oliver but he has nice muscle definition in the upper body and nothing extra through the hips that I could see. He was kicking accurately off both sides. Then it was in to 8 on 6 short ball movement in two different groups up either wings. Sharp work from all that I saw. Then it was time for in tight handballing, with 2 different divisions split in either half of the centre square. I like a nice burst from Toby Bedford where he escaped from traffic.I actually think he does his best work around stoppages. They mixed it up with the same kind of drill but up and down each wing for about 50m getting quick hands. Langdon was a standout from what I saw, both with the ball and defensively he's really sharp to move contest to contest. Salem. James Jordon. Oliver involved in everything as usual. Again, very sharp stuff. By this stage Jetta, Weideman and Nietschke were split off to do some rehab stuff. Marking and then the old fashion keepings off with 1 guy with the ball, 1 blocking, 1 chasing. Nietschke more than held his own blocking or chasing, he's a willing lad. Joel Smith and Lever also sat out some of the main stuff for some kick/mark rehab work. Lever, Jetta, Nietschke, Weideman all went back in the main groups later. Petty, Vanders, Bradkte and Joel Smith did some leading and kicking, then some good running before finishing up. Bradtke can kick a lovely drop punt for a tall. The main group moved in to the british bulldog injury drill as mentioned above. Whilst T Mc, Preuss and Gawn did marking with Matty Egan. Jason Taylor in attendance and looking very comfortable. He always strikes me as very tall. And has very small lower calves, I can't confirm if he has donated his calves to Harley B. Mahoney, Matty Whelan, Shagger Byrnes all floating around. Kelly O'Donnell watching intently with binoculars. Line groups did some specific stuff. Defenders one on one marking and a quick handball then kick to a fellow defender back leading for an exit kick. Finally in to match sim. It was toward the end of a long session but it was noticeable how after short burst of match sim how stuffed the players were. Footy hey, it hurts. Nibbler snapped a nice goal. Some sloppy mistakes down to fatigued I'm sure and it was blowing. Overall not too disappointed with it. The standout player who was finding space for marks, hitting targets and constantly letting dangerous.....well maybe I'll keep that for myself for now, you guys seem to like the suspense.?