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Everything posted by DeeSpencer
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North 2019 - 7th (Ben Cunnington 242, Robbie Tarrant 227, Todd Goldstein 192*, Trent Dumont 192, Ben Brown 190*, Jack Ziebell 190, Jared Polec 184, Shaun Higgins 170, Jasper Pittard 169, Shaun Atley 158) Port 2018 - 5th (1. Justin Westhoff 179 , 2. Tom Jonas 162, 2. Ollie Wines 162, 4. Robbie Gray 152, 5. Jared Polec 151, 6. Chad Wingard 143, 7. Darcy Byrne-Jones 139 8. Dan Houston 131, 9. Travis Boak 126, 10. Tom Clurey 110) Port 2017 - 22 games, Not top 10 Port 2016 - 17 games, not top 10 Port 2015 - 5 games Port 2014 - 24 games - not top 10 So he didn't get a lot of votes earlier in his career but the two years prior to his one he's been surrounded by very good footballers in the Port count and behind some handy names at North. There's probably enough evidence to say he's not perfect but he does bring a fair bit to the table.
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I significantly doubt that. He's always been super professional and a great runner. Guys should add a bit of muscle over summer or lockdown when they aren't copping all the bumps and bruises of games, and especially coming back from a knee injury they would've done a lot of work on Tom's leg strength. I reckon the shaved head and tight match day jumper plus the early season muscles on his shoulders and legs might've given him a look of bulk but he never had an ounce of excess weight and the same lean running build. If there's anything that the lockdown did it might well be that Tom is the kind of guy who needs a lot of skill work and touch. Usually it's 4 months of it over summer. Covid training in a pair where all you can do is kick to kick or handballs just isn't the same. And even the movement drills would've been different. A lot of straight line running just training with a partner. Instead of 4 months of actual footy movement. I think he can be better next year. But if he just won't ever move the same as he did in 2018 will he be better enough that he's more value than Jackson, Weid or even Petty? And if there's a way out of his contract (or a chunk of it) and to bring someone else in then does it really matter?
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He's no chance of getting traded and if you chucked him in this draft group I'd imagine he'd go somewhere between picks 3-7 I just wasn't too fussy with the categories. He's not the same value as Petracca or Oliver and would go somewhere in the top 10 that's all. Similarly Rivers I'd imagine could go slightly earlier than 15. I considered bumping up Fritsch, Lever and Viney too but I think teams would be reluctant to straight up trade a first rounder for any of them. You can find inside mids and shaky tall defenders elsewhere for less.
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No, I just don't overrate our list or what other clubs would pay for them. There's no reason for us to trade most of our best players, the majority of which are contracted anyway so we'd rightfully ask for a lot more to give them up. There's a couple of guys I might sneak up a little bit but if they played for other clubs that's about what I'd pay for these players.
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Top 5 pick and more: Petracca, Oliver Top 10 pick: Jackson 15-20: Rivers, Salem, Pickett, Gawn, May 20-25: Fritsch, Viney, Langdon, Lever, Weideman 30-40: Sparrow, Petty, Brayshaw (with cash), Harmes 40+ pick upgrades: McDonald (with cash), Spargo, Hunt, ANB No draft value: The rest
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Most years we keep 1 or 2 guys in limbo depending on the outcomes of the trade period. When you add in list sizes still up for debate and probably a 1-2 player swing on those negotiations that’s 4 spots. Add in the draft class surely being one of the most difficult to assess of the professional era and it’s a lot of uncertainty. I hope no player wants to be delisted but at least these 3 have some certainty. It might be a rough time for half a dozen more.
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Otherwise: Centre square: 1. Gawn: is not always a great centre square ruck. Doesn't jump - especially when coming back from a PCL, so often hits to one area of the clockface. Battles as well as he can to follow up but it's hard for him to chase guys far younger and quicker. Jackson hopefully starts to see some centre square time next year, he can be a real weapon in there. 2. Individually: the mids all have some issues. Brayshaw can't defend. Petracca isn't great at it either. Viney battles to give off creative handballs to free runners. And Oliver. Oliver gets sat on and then gives hot potato handballs unless he's going backwards or at best sideways, his lack of left foot or confidence in his right means he's nowhere near the centre bounce player he should be. Doesn't get any help from the umps for holding either. 3. Balance: The issues above compound each other. Brayshaw's the best link player of our mids - dishing or receiving handballs, but Goodwin doesn't trust him to defend. Viney had a period of not trusting his kicking like Oliver. All 3 of Viney, Petracca and Clarry both love diving in at the ball leaving no one to get the handball. Around the ground: 1. Team work and structure. We're often lazy to set up or not on the same page as Max. 2. Poor quality half back flankers/half forward flankers/wingers. Salem and Rivers off half back are handy stoppage players, and Vanders sure has his moments on a wing. Otherwise Langdon isn't and our half forwards are often poor unless it's Tracc playing forward and rolling up to the stoppage.
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Does any have a breakdown of the stats? AFL tables isn't updated yet for round 18 but we had 458 clearances for and 436 clearances against. If we're winning more than we concede then we really can't be 15th. We also had 684 inside 50's whilst conceding 641. Not a huge difference, but I'd imagine it's much harder to win a clearance in your own forward line when you're trying to kick a goal than it is to win a clearance in your backline where the aim is to just get it and hoof it clear.
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I think they pick between Viney and Brad Crouch as free agents to replace Tim Kelly. Then use the picks start finding some tall prospects. Of course Daniher and Cameron will have a street in Torquay with their names on it if they wish to head down the highway
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If we don’t match we get compo. Could be a start of the second round pick. Most likely is after our second rounder. If we do match we either keep him or trade him to Geelong. In which case we can ask for a deal involving one of their 3 first round picks. Currently 11, 15 and 16. Of course the risk there is that they’d probably be a lot less interested if they had to trade.
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We desperately need a gun key forward
DeeSpencer replied to Pickett2Jackson's topic in Melbourne Demons
Disagree. He had a sustained run of form when the team was firing and before we started playing 3 games in a week in a tropical cyclone that was as good as any key forward in the comp not named Hawkins or Dixon. He was taking marks on gun defenders like Harris Andrews and Darcy Moore. 19 goals in 13 shortened games actually becomes 40 goals in 22 full length games. And whilst that doesn't sound much it takes a good forward to do much more than that these days. He has to make strides with his body to make sure he's durable enough to get through 22 full length games but if he does do that he'll be getting to more contests and finding more cheap ball as well. So it's a win-win.- 167 replies
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0 goals from 3 games this year. 9 goals in 13 games last year. Has kicked more than 2 goals only twice, which was the day he somehow kicked 7 against the Hawks and then another game where he kicked 5 against North. If you put those games down as massive outliers then he's no more of a scoreboard threat than Spargo. Maybe a slightly better tackler but not as clean with the ball. Butler and Papley are much smarter. They create goals. Ronke's a quick player who just found himself in the right spot at the right time on a couple of occasions.
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Watching his 2018 highlights and yes he was certainly moving better and far less robotic but he was also just full of confidence. Not a care about crashing in to a pack. Didn't run under the ball. Didn't stop and attempt to fend a player off, just grabbed the ball and ran. The last two years he's played the same was as did as a defender in 2016 and parts of 2017 when he just lost all confidence in his kicking and clearly needed the freshen up of the ruck/forward role in 17 and then full time forward in 18. All the fumbles, all the double grabbed marks, all the times he's got the ball in congestion and attempt to kick straight in to an opponents on coming smothers. They can't be due to physical problems.
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The best way to make this team is to be in the 2016-2018 drafts. We traded out of 16 for Weideman and 17/18 for Lever. But we’ve also taken Fritsch (slightly too old), Spargo, Petty, Sparrow, Jordon with decent picks in those years. On talent alone Fritter isn’t far off a lot of the guys in the 22u22. Spargo looks like an AFL player again. Petty and Sparrow both have a fair bit of upside, if they can deliver next year our youth starts looking a lot stronger. As for making the team - our class of ‘19 have 3 more years to do that.
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Good from afar but a far from good. Accumulates but lacks damage. Doesn't love the contest. Doesn't love defensive running. Isn't quick enough to break lines. Is a good kick but not a great kick who opens up play and creates goals. The suns probably paid him plenty to sign on for 4 years as well given they couldn't keep losing players. We'd probably have to get a decent chunk of his cash paid to make a deal work. Had offseason groin surgery so he's a better player than he showed this year but whether he's good enough to go and chase I'm not sure.
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Would you? What if the club said we'll still pay you everything you're owed but find other ways to use your considerable other talents. His legs look shot and he's ducking in to tackles and risking further concussions. Unless he and the club thinks there's something he can change over summer to find more vitality they won't be doing him any favours by having him play on.
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Clubs that missed finals were doing their exit interviews even before round 18 so they could get up and out of the hub ASAP. I'd imagine given we were a legitimate finals chance until last night that we'll be holding off at least until now. I doubt we'd do what North did, but it's likely rumours or confirmation of at least the first batch come through this week. Usually we wait until the trade period for a second/third group of list changes.
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I think we should have a crack at Riley Collier-Dawkins. I know inside mid isn't what we need but this kid is a big body with legspeed and a heap of potential. If we're been bold and willing to let go of Viney or others we shouldn't be afraid to make a few offers. Worst case scenario is it keeps Richmond honest and ups what they have to pay him.
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We should do what the Pies did with Daniel Wells for Jetta. Retire him and give him a job in the footy department and community department. That means the money gets split under the footy department cap and in normal expenditure. Nev can provide more value to the club in a role like that than he would playing on. It only costs 80k extra and a rookie list spot to bring in a rookie in his place. Oscar is out of contract according to articles from 2018.
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Re-contract: Fritsch, Spargo, Petty, Sparrow, Jordon, Hore, Lockhart, Hibberd, Nietschke Delisted: Wagner, Wagner, Dunkley, Bedford Trade: Tom Mc Retire: Jones, Jetta*, KK* Decision time: Viney Fringe: Chandler, Bennell, Smith, Oscar, Hannan, Hunt, Brown, Bradtke** *Nev and/or KK might have to be redrafted as a rookie then replaced over summer ** Bradtke likely stays assuming he keeps Category B status The future of the fringe group depends on who else we can get, how low the list size shrinks to and how many we trade out.
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His decision making in particular was far more advanced than I expected. I'm certainly not against trying him there. I'd test him more on a flank before deciding he has the shutdown qualities of someone like Nev. I think we've been so spoilt by young mids who can come in and get 30 touches that we forget it's ok to have mids who get 15 and do other things well. In fact we're probably a better side with a guy like Sparrow who has a defensive focus and skirts the packs more than diving head first in to them with our other mids.
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Saad interests me but we might not be able to get it done. It's also a lot to give up for a 26 year old. Cumming if he's cheap. Witherden concerns me. Looks a million dollars against bad teams but under pressure he falters. There's a reason he's not getting games for Brisbane right now. If it really is a 3rd rounder and not a huge contract then fine, but I'm not sure that will be the case.
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A little, but I'm not sure he has a clear role these days. Lacks a bit of skill and speed for half back, lacks a bit of size and ability in the contest for a deeper role. And he's a smart guy who probably has a lot of other things he could be doing. I'm surprised North haven't kept him around for one more year as a good character guy whilst they chop so much from the list. It might well be that he's ready to get a real job rather than risk his body for 100k a year in the 2's.
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We desperately need a gun key forward
DeeSpencer replied to Pickett2Jackson's topic in Melbourne Demons
Brisbane do. Otherwise Port, Geel and Richmond have 1 excellent big guy. Port's number 2 is a kid, Richmond's number 2 is ageing Riewoldt and Geelong don't really have a 2nd guy. The Eagles have Kennedy about to finish up and the best support system with Darling, Allen and Ryan but they aren't going anywhere. Otherwise the list of big forwards who kicked more goals than Weideman this year is very low. Jezza Cameron might be the only one remotely available and he's hardly a bullocking option. Gunston even less so. Weideman will play most of next season at 24 years old. He remains a better bet than gambling on anyone else. Fritsch should continue to improve in doing what he does. Jackson doesn't have to be a bullocking player or a big goal kicker. An x-factor type who's difficult to stop in the air is all he needs to do.