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DeeSpencer

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Everything posted by DeeSpencer

  1. Richmond have won 2 of the last 3 flags by having more speed all over the ground than any other club. Players spend 100 minutes running for about 15 touches. Running is pretty much the predominant skill of footy and speed absolutely matters. But it’s positional and related to footy and has to be trained in to game plans. As someone said Langdon’s repeat 100m sprints are likely elite. Petracca’s power over 10 steps is excellent. Top speeds aren’t that relevant because rarely do guys get to or need to run 50m+ in a straight line to get top speed.
  2. McDonald has 2 years left and I’d be imagining they’d be asking us to make 700k become a whole lot less. Over the course of the contracts you’re talking well over 1M saved. Add in the top 25 pick they’ll get from Brown and it’s adding up to a big difference. They’re also likely to draft a young key forward who would take the spot if not immediately then well before Brown’s contract is up. It’s best viewed as 2 different deals. First is to decide Brown isn’t a long term part of the future. Second is to decide on who they can find as cheap mature age depth. The options for mature depth forwards are incredibly limited. Hence why we have Mitch Brown.
  3. I’m a fan of trying Melk as well if we don’t bring in Polec or similar. The defensive work on the wing is often less intense than at half forward, not as many quick changes of direction and less congestion. I get the feeling Melkshams work rate is find, it’s his intensity that goes missing. Plus he’ll find more of the ball and it opens up a half forward spot for a better defensive player or another tall.
  4. It might not be any more to blame than Petracca’s love of mums home cooking but he’s certainly struggled to get to peak fitness. The extra diligence needed with diabetes doesn’t make it easy.
  5. I'd say it's about $1.50 odds he signs at the Cats. His talent is very similar to Hawkins if he were to get it all together. I wouldn't say no entirely but I'd just be really concerned that his diabetes hampered his fitness, which led to make errors in the way he attacked the ball, which led to him sustained far too many hits to the head. 10months training at home doesn't strike me as the best way to get on top of those issues. He almost should be made to play in a local league and then a state league before returning to AFL.
  6. North have a huge age gap from 25 to 30 on their list. Even if they move on Higgins their over 30's are ok - Ziebell, Hall, Tarrant, Goldy. But in that prime age they'll have Cunnington, Tom Campbell (a break glass if needed ruck), Atley, Walker, Dom Tyson (if they keep him) and Garner (if they keep him). They don't want Polec, they'll bring in Corr and they want to trade Brown now whilst he still has some value to get more draft picks. So they desperately need good solid citizens in that mid to late 20's because otherwise not only will the side be terrible but the leadership and training standards will fall off a cliff too. Tommy at CHF with Larkey as the main inside 50 target probably pairs better for Larkey's development than a lot of other options too. It's not as good as Brown in full flight and Larkey up the ground but it might not be hopeless. It reminds me of the way Brad Miller played 2 seasons at Richmond for Jack Riewoldt. Or even the same way Daniel Cross played 2 seasons at Melbourne on a wing or flank to help our young mids. They have to spend the salary cap someway and they won't be signing any big name free agents or trades (heavens knows how much they paid Corr but they didn't get Williams and will be long odds to get Saad). Jade Rawlings knows Tom so will know his character and off field leadership. If I were North I'd be reluctant to publicly confirm interest because it does look like a big step backwards going from Brown to Tommy Mc, but to me it does make some sense. If you delist 11 players and trade 3 of your best 10 you're going to have to find senior players from somewhere.
  7. Agree on the inconsistent kicking of contested mids, although there’s certainly plenty of room for improvement. The bigger problem is Oliver has games, or probably more correctly first halves where he’s just making life more difficult for his teammates by going backwards with 1m handballs that don’t release them in to space. His quick hands can be such a weapon but are too often a liability.
  8. Shuey tucks the ball in his left arm rather than keeping his arms free. Turns and lowers his body so the tackler can't get around his hips (not that they'd want to, players are told to tackle pinning the arms). Polec's arm comes across the mid point of Shuey's upper arm, miles from his neck and aiming to pin his arm and lower chest. Shuey then keeps going lower whilst raising his arm and once the tackle goes high he throws his head and body back whilst Polec is left watching. Polec should've been stronger to stop the arm lift, but this was disgraceful from Shuey. Thankfully the umpires have caught on since (after a decade of Selwood doing it) and largely stamped it out of the game. Anyway, Polec's tackle numbers have generally been decent. I don't think it's a huge strength or weakness of his game either way.
  9. I don't know if we have $1 or $1Million spare. It doesn't really matter. Either way we've got a lot of top line expensive players - Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Lever, May, Langdon, Brayshaw, McDonald and hopefully Viney. We paid up for Tomlinson -free agents are never cheap and it was reported at the time that we paid up to get Preuss. This years re-signings might not break the bank but next year we have to factor in new contracts for Oliver, Gawn, Salem, Weideman and extensions for the 3 draftees in particular Rivers and Jackson. Any opportunity to get cash off the books that isn't delivering a strong return is worth exploring.
  10. Too many fumbles and skittish disposal to be a stoppage player. Goes to ground too often as well. Then there’s the tank issue. I assume Hannan can run pretty well but he hasn’t had a full preseason in yonks and has at least 1 dodgy knee. His first month back was great. He was top 5 in the best and fairest. Then the body and confidence seemed to drop. Im not sure if he stays on the list, but if he does he has to have the perfect summer to save his career. I’d start there before worrying about moving positions
  11. He's a very ordinary kick. More penetration than Langdon and doesn't mind a goal - has played half forward a fair bit the last two years - but his kicking is very unreliable. He'd come cheap with the Pies dumping cap space but at some stage we have to find long term upgrades rather than pay up for a guy with shoddy skills.
  12. Haha sure. I can think of 2 reasons: 1. Something is better than nothing 2. We paid good cash for Preuss, it's salary better used somewhere else.
  13. I think our kicking problems aren't horrendous but they broadly break down in to 3 categories: 1. Switching/slow build up game: We're light on for defenders and outside mids who we truly trust to play the switch and slow game. Langdon's always running to provide an option. And May, Salem and Rivers are very good. But there's a drop off and to play that way you need all 7 defenders and 2 wings and even the inside mids pushing out to work for each other and trust each other. 2. Reliably hitting the long target: Gawn rarely loses a long down the line kick yet we still can't routinely park the ball to his advantage at the perfect spot. Yet alone when we have Weid or another forward coming under it. It should be so simple but too many of our players get this basic kick wrong. A second key forward who can move (so not Preuss or Tom) and can compete and bring the ball to ground (so not Brown or McDonald) obviously makes this an easier task 3. Hitting the leading forward: Petracca can lace it to anyone within 60m. Melksham doesn't get it as often but still can. Fritsch is capable of excellent hit up kicks. Pickett has great promise and both Spargo and ANB were vastly improved at the end of the year. So there's hope with the half forwards. Viney got much better. Gus was still hit and miss. Oliver started to trust himself more but the results are still very patchy. Langdon only trusts himself to hit a pop up 30m pass that's a forward killer because it just sits in the air. If Oliver can make strides, we can find a second wingman and if we find some trusty defensive depth we'll probably be at least average. Even the best sides like Richmond and Port are moving the ball smartly then hitting the spots for Lynch and Dixon to contest far more than they are picking out targets with great kicks.
  14. With less games and no opportunity to watch live it's harder than ever to work out where the problems are. That said: Forwards: I actually think we did a pretty good job creating space, pushing up for the outlet kicks and getting sustainable pressure and corridor coverage. There were games we struggled to score in but I saw that as more when the ball use up the ground fell apart and when we lacked forwards who can create goals from slower entries. Overall I had no issue with the forward coaching. Backs: The game plan seemed improved. We managed to get good representation down the line for slow plays as well as keep the backline deep enough to not get exposed out the back. The ball use out of the backline was pretty solid too. May was great. In the games where the pressure was on up the field Lever had chances to be great. My biggest concern is the lack of development of the lesser defenders. Apart from Rivers coming in we saw a cycling through of Smith, Oscar, Tomlinson, Harmes, J Wagner, Jetta and Lockhart. Chaplin strikes me as a coach who's good on paper but lacks the ability to hone the basics. Smith, Oscar and Tomlinson in particular had bad habits of zoning the pockets rather than staying corridor side and didn't seem to have the ability to spoil with both arms. Midfield: This is my biggest worry. Gawn was often way off base with the mids. There was little team work between the mids and there were big lapses in basic set up at times too. Why did it take weeks to get Viney to look up and choose his targets? Why did it take weeks for Oliver to start using his legs? It even took a while to start finding and using Langdon on the wings when he was clearly wide open. Given the amount of experienced, mature and settled talent available I thought the midfield coaching was the poorest group.
  15. We’ve bloated our salary cap with deals like Tomlinson, so if we can get out of Preuss’ cash and use the pick and cash on a best 22 player I think we should. Jackson is the number 2. If Bradtke isn’t the number 3 then we should look through the state leagues and other clubs back ups for a cheap number 3.
  16. It’s been reported multiple times that by about round 5 last year Scott said we need to aggressively rebuild. Whilst the North staff and Shaw thought the list was good enough to keep going with what they got. They did a pick swap with us but didn’t make significant list moves last year. Imagine what they would’ve got for Brown, Polec and Higgins last year? Goldy and Higgins had deals on the table from Geelong and North said no. Im certainly not sold on Polec but if I were him I’d be struggling for motivation too. He’s come to a club that’s not only shifted their intentions but taken a year longer than they needed to. https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theage.com.au/sport/afl/debate-over-north-melbourne-rebuild-as-fagan-defends-charlie-cameron-20200815-p55m01.html Upon taking over as senior coach after Brad Scott departed last season, Shaw had faith the Roos did not need a major overhaul, something Scott reportedly felt was the case. However, now in his first full season in charge and dealing with life in a hub, Shaw admitted on Saturday his mindset had changed. "I was really confident going into the pre-season of where we stood. I don't think injuries have helped our situation. We have been decimated by injuries throughout the year," he said pre-match on Fox Footy. "We found out about a few people and we will continue to find out. I think it (his mindset) has probably changed a bit but, in saying that, I am clearly adapting to what the situation entails. I am really looking forward to what we can do. We have a great young list ... I am really excited about that and looking forward to the future."
  17. So what did Shaw do last year when he changed the North game plan to long bombs down the line and ground out a number of wins and talked up their finals chances? Not a single person said rebuild with North this year until they started losing. And the first thing Shaw started talking about was toughness, a vague and mostly useless term when talking about AFL footballers. Justin Longmuir is a guy who has clearly stamped a culture on Freo. All the malingerers went straight out of the side. A clear game plan that is defensive first but still moves the ball was implemented. And guess what - Freo won a number of games, so they've changed the culture towards winning. Shaw has just created a cultural vacuum that he now needs to fill. Jed Anderson can't kick at all. Why didn't Shaw ask him to play half back flank and have 20 kicks a game? Trying to make Polec tag Cripps as a way of stamping your authority on a playing group is just BS. I've got no issue with Polec getting dropped. Or even have him play half back flank and deal with the poor up field defending or cover a man. And I absolutely hope the Melbourne coaches are very thorough determining if Polec does do enough defensive running and contested work. But I won't hold it against Polec that a young coach tried to fit a square peg in a round hole and then found out it didn't work.
  18. No thanks. He'd take games from Weideman who is ready and willing to nail that full forward spot. With limited list spots we need to find the guy who compliments Weid, Jackson, Pickett, Fritsch. Those 4 have enough talent to form the basis of a very good forward line, they are just lacking an experienced leader to guide them along. One option is giving Melksham a significant kick in the backside. Otherwise it's really hard to find experienced forwards. Talls probably aren't the right spot to look, it might have to be a small or even a midfielder ready for a different chapter of their career.
  19. Jed Anderson played on him for the next 3 quarters so unless Polec and Anderson took it upon themselves to do what they should've done from the start of the game I don't think that's true. Polec certainly didn't try very hard to tag him in the first quarter though.
  20. You mean the way he tackled Shuey almost around his waist before Shuey flat out cheated?
  21. Seemingly every AFL player watches the NBA. And seemingly every NBA player who is on a bad team likes to jump off as soon as they can - contract or no contract - and get to a good team. Guys are now getting paid enough that whether it's as free agents or pre-agents (the year prior or maybe even 2 years prior) they will start pushing for trades if their club doesn't have a path to success. One look at the B+F results tells us our best 12 players are in their premiership window. After that the votes drop away to a few almost players in Melk, Vanders and Tomlinson. Almost good, almost not worthy of games. And 3 kids in their first season. If I were a top player I'd be sending out a pretty strong message - let's build up this playing like with trades/draft/development/coaching etc because we've got the core of guys in their prime. And we better start doing something with it and soon otherwise it's wasting the best years.
  22. Clayton's offseason to do list: 1. Keep working on getting his arms free and legs moving at a stoppage 2. Learn how to ride contact and dish handballs rather than simply avoid it 3. Develop range on his kicks, a long and high clearing kick and a short hit up kick 4. Find a left foot 5. Stop playing on at all costs, in particular no more advantage! 6. Become more comfortable in the media so he can be a public leader 7. Get traded to Carlton Seems legit.
  23. Yep. At least when we did it with Watts we dressed it up a bit as though it was going to be better for him to go rather than stay. Plus we were never getting much anyway. North have tanked Brown's value and now they've told him to go find a new club he's in an even stronger spot for that new club to say we aren't paying all that much for this guy.
  24. Joe last year: 25.6 years old, 2 years removed from a 65 goals, 352 disposal, 153 mark season. Ben this year: 27.9, 1 year removed from a 64 goals, 108, 244 disposal season. If we say key forwards are done at 30 then Joe had 4 or 5 years of peak and a better peak - 50% more marks and disposals. Ben has 2 or 3 years of peak and it's a lower peak. The age factor is the key. You can't pay too much for a guy who's only giving a few seasons even if they are good seasons.
  25. Is Shaw attempting to build good habits or is he a desperate young coach preaching a mantra of contest and physicality because he doesn't have the ability to teach skills and ball movement? Shaw has decided that at age 27 despite playing the same way for his career Polec needs to add hardness and contested ball winning. So he sends him to tag Cripps. A move that pretty much anyone would suggest isn't smart. It's a disaster. He then frees up Polec from the tag - but still has him play on ball - and he gets 25 touches and is key part to North's comeback. David Teague gave Polec the 4 coaches votes in that game. So he was clearly aware of his value. Polec is nearly 28 and on a fat contract for 3 more years that will likely still be chunky no matter which was you slice it, so that's a concern. And whether it's the defensive running, lack of hardness at the contest of very left sided-ness there's certainly some concerns. But it's also an opportunity where you've got a coach putting his foot down for whatever reason and very much devaluing an asset. If we're smart we down play it and don't show any more interest than the possibility of doing North a favour and taking a bit of cash from their books. Like the Cats with Josh Jenkins. Have it all happen late and with a minimum of interest. But if we get him stuff all there's no way he's not a huge improvement on what we have.
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