DeeSpencer

I’d imagine the Pies and the Dees would firstly agree to a figure, the rumour floated was 300k per year. So 1.5 total. Then it’s a matter of moving the money to years that suit. If the Pies want the majority of it off the books quickly then they could go 600, 600, 100 x 3. Otherwise they may go a flat 300k per year. Either way we could then front load Grundy’s new deal to factor that in and pay him approx 600 x 5 of our own money The dogs reportedly signed Treloar for 5 years 3 million and got the Pies to pay the 1.5 of the rest of his deal with a lot of haggling over who pays what in which year.

West Coast would be mad to split their pick and give up next years. You need premium high quality talent in a rebuild, that means keeping the highest picks. I don’t think they’re actually keen on Jackson at all. I think they’re just playing the game to make sure Freo cough up a fair price.

Lobb’s a tease. He doesn’t like to ruck even though he could be special in that position. He wants to be the man up forward and hasn’t ever shown he is the man. He’d be a great fit if he committed to the fit. I have high hopes for Jacob being a solid performer but he projects a lot more like Brody Mihocek than a superstar to me. But I also think superstar key forwards are overrated. 2 key forwards who crash packs, lead hard, chase hard, tap the ball on and contribute at ground level can get the job done.

Poor man’s Membrey is exactly what Corbett is. He’s undersized and predominantly hits up at CHF. The right type of tall if you’re playing a ruck and another tall deep as the Saints usually do.

Footballers really should be measured in height to the top of their shoulders plus arm length. Corbett could have a short neck and small head, he could be a big as a 195cm player in the way that matters!

I liked Himmelberg from the Crows, not quite ruck size but close enough but the crows have kept him. Frampton is more of a key defender/ruck but seems Pies bound. Sydney would part with one of Amartey or McLean if you made them a big overs offer for fringe players. The cats would probably part with Esava. Shannon Neale they’d like to keep but maybe if you went hard for him and could persuade him to fight out of a contract. It’s absolutely a limited market. It’s probably easier to solve with playing 2 rucks (as seems to be the plan). Or getting a good back to use as needed through the season and going with 1 ruck and 3 tall forwards come September (which would be my plan).

In 2021 Sidebottom finished 5th and was barely trying. Roughead finished 8th and never played again. Grundy’s results came from turning up to most games and not being a terrible with a few good games mixed in. He was a perfectly fine starting ruck, in the range between 3rd best and 10th best ruck of the season. 2 years of that plus a year out means the expectations should be for more of that level than his ‘star’ level previous to that.

Petty needs to get 5 more disposals a game at the AFL level and Turner needs to get 5 more at VFL. Both are talented talls with the ball. Turner has midfielders instincts with his ground ball and handballing and can run the ball. I’m sure he’s been coached up defensive first and the ball has often been at the other end. Doesn’t mean he’s not ready for a role in the afl side but in general for guys to stick at afl level they should dominate VFL. Maybe it all happens in one summer for him but I expect Turner to go up another level of performance at Casey during next season before breaking in to the side.

20 and 21 were injury hampered though. To go injury hampered x 2 then injured for pretty much an entire season with 2 different injuries (one contact, one overuse) is at least a worry. I’d say a 3 year sample is probably a decent guide for the type of player you are. It’s not 100% guaranteed that he can’t reproduce his 2019 form but it’s not just the one year of missing games.

His best footy was in 2019/2020 as a tagger. Strong country lad with a good tank and was suited to that role. His skills/smarts have always been found wanting at half back or on a wing.

Ben’s knee might be 65. North thought he was cooked. Anything he does from now is a bonus. We aren’t going to suddenly start lacing our kicks. Quick movement and long kicks is about the best most sides can do, and hopefully get 1 on 1’s. It work last year, Brown’s a better high mark than he gets credit for. No doubt having Tom McDonald helped take the load off at chf too. Even late this year though Brown would be dangerous for a half and contributing then tailing his opponent in the second half. But if Grundy/Gawn replaces Jackson then we need mobility from the key forwards. The ruck becomes the bomb target and the other forwards need to be mobile.

We gave Hunt 2 years post 2020 when it felt a bit off. Smith might be next level to that but I’m not sure it’s by much. We kept Baker and Mitch Brown last year. And Grundy seems very Ben Brown ish, let’s see what the end cost is, if it’s along the lines of Brown it makes it easier to understand. Maybe we’re repeating the mistakes of the past, or maybe it’s the best we can do in keeping experience and stability and trying to patch tall forwards. The one thing we should be doing is using the bulk of the Jacko compensation the draft. If we end the trade period with a strong draft hand, Grundy, maybe a depth ruck or other key forward and at least one running player then that’s in line with previous moves.

I’m absolutely on record that I don’t want Grundy, but I think there might be push back on the big money aspect of it. Gawn’s one of 2 Melbourne players who really does make money away from footy with marketing, plus his business interests. If he’s as unselfish as we’re lead to believe he might only be on 600k . Maybe we put the screws to the Pies and get Grundy down to 550-600k too. Given any starting calibre player makes 400k+ and even an in demand back up like Meek could fetch 300k it might not be all that much salary wise. It could be that we’re fine with our ruck budget being expensive and that it doesn’t hinder our ability to land a key forward for 2024.

Of course you can get moderate improvements but you can’t turn Luke Dunstan in to Clayton Oliver, nor can you turn Weideman in to Harry McKay or any other functional key forward. Callow’s a smart footballer but pretty much all his highlights are running in straight lines and barely jumping off the ground. Even his nice pack marks at sanfl or junior level aren’t cutting it at afl level. Talls need to move like midfielders at ground level and compete with athletic freaks (some of them 2m+ tall) in the air.

If Gawn’s going forward then we need 2 mobile marking targets + Fritsch. The 2 we have on the list are McDonald and JVR. A kid and a spluttering Datsun. Makes sense to add someone in the middle of that age range to provide cover. Corbett’s best strength is as an old school lead up CHF. That’s not as popular as it used to be but if we want to use JVR or T Mc to add that to our ball movement then Corbett’s good depth at it.

Teams mostly shifted away from trying to combat Lever with a 3rd tall and instead put pressure on him to man up smalls. He was often on Walters, Ginnivan and McCarthy late in the season. When we held teams up he had the better of that match up, when opposition broke through he couldn’t keep up. And like most of our backline he offered so little in attack. Honestly the attacking work rate from our back 7 was deplorable this year. I just hope they’ve got long enough over summer to fix his issues and get him fully fit. I’d rather they set a time line that ends a few rounds in to the season but has Jake at peak fitness than get him in for round 1. We’ve seen the impact of chronic plantar fasciitis/ankle/foot drama with Jack Viney and we can’t repeat that.

Max never deliberately played behind the ball though. He pushed back from the ruck after we slowed teams ball movement. Do reliable tall targets forward of the ball allow the ruck to sit back more - yes. But we can get that with 3 tall forwards if we have them (or recruit them). Grundy rucking 50%+ immediately takes away from Gawn floating back from the ruck, and whilst he’s not bad at it Grundy isn’t nearly as good as a backline marker. Plus having an immobile ruck up forward takes away from the forward pressure required to slow ball movement and allow the big ruck to sit back to begin with.

I agree. It doesn’t make sense that they wanted Melk gone last year but will now keep him this year. Even if his salary is drastically reduced. He can only play 1 role - undersized tall distractor. I think he was actually ok in that role is most games but it’s still not going to be a first or even second choice role next year. I guess he takes Mitch Brown’s list spot in the ‘why is he on the list’ role. Which might be about having a forward line coach at Casey. Still, I’d rather fill that via Casey not with an afl list spot.

At his best - a very good player due to his mobility and follow up at ground level. And he ability to play 85% in the ruck. If he’s lost any significant amount of that mobility he won’t be as valuable. That was made clear in 2020/2021. If he’s asked to play forward his value drops yet again

You can’t just make a guy run faster and jump higher. If we could do that we’d start with half our own players

Is he a smart tap ruck - no, the pies consistently struggled to get value from his taps Can he play forward - no Does he take a lot of contested marks around the ground - not really Is he so skilled that his habit of racking up a huge amount of the ball really is useful - no. Honestly I worry we’ve been seduced by the desire to replace Jackson and the fantasy of Gawn up forward rather admitting we need a back up ruck and a forward who can pinch hit in the ruck. Plus a genuine key forward solution. Instead of making 3 moves to fix 3 problems we’re going all in on Grundy.

Not at afl level athlete

How many players sign contracts late in the season more than a year out? Compared to how many players sign contracts over summer when their managers have had a chance to fully assess options. I’m not saying he isn’t a chance to leave but this is a fair beat up that’s really piggy backing on the Jacko situation. I don’t think we should be worrying until at least April next year. If talks are delayed or not progressing by then it’s worth talking about.

Bears and Texans were tipped to be the worst 2 teams in the NFL and I really think both teams are going to be too well coached and organised for that to be the case. They won't be good, they lack talent and have limited offenses, but Lovie Smith got elevated in Houston just do a solid job with a roster that's slowly trending the right way. And whilst the national media have crapped all over the Bears for not giving Fields enough blocking and weapons the word out of the Bears from anyone who's seen them train or play so far has been that they're really professional and organised. Fields looks a long way off consistently running a seamless offense, especially one this devoid of talent. But what he can do is make huge plays. The Bears will try to stay in games for as long as possible before Fields makes a couple of huge throws and wins them. That won't beat the elite teams but it's not a terrible recipe against the lesser sides.

Is it too late for me to change for the Eagles in the NFC East, Dak's injury just about dooms the Cowboys. Liking the Vikings in the NFC north too but let's see what Rodgers can do with these young receivers with more time. Oh and Bucs to win the NFC looks likely but I'm still a bit worried about Brady.