Little Goffy

Stating the obvious twice in one sentence is pushing the Demonland moderators a bit.

At some point we will have a bit of a stumble during the season because we aren't some kind of flawless machine, we're 'just' a winning team. But that stumble can be weathered thanks to this terrific start and will give us the stimulus we need to really address the remaining deficiencies then attacking the late season and finals with renewed vigour.

Bear with me, it's time for another Little Goffy wall of text. I spent a bit of time last week doing some digging of old Nathan Jones threads and it was quite rewarding so I bookmarked them to share later. I'll try to share in chronological order. I hope this bring a few moments of poignancy for others as it did for me.

I was at the Sydney/Giants game on the weekend and the contrived noise reached the point of being just embarrassing. It was on that level of the style of comedy I hate where someone is just being incredibly bad at something and not realising it. At one point they even had the 'Syyyyddnneeeyyy, Syyyyddnneeey' chat playing over the speakers. The interruptions actually killed the spontaneous vibe of the crowd a few times, including in the last quarter.

Now that it is just us and the Dogs on top of the ladder, the maths to secure top spot become very simple. Melbourne 170 Hawthorn 35 Sounds good to me, but of course I'll take any old win that comes our way.

First time in a while I've looked at a team list and felt like we had winners all over the ground. They have the least depth of inside mids I've ever seen, clearance are basically O'Meara and Mitchell then... Wingard?! I say assign Viney to bite chunks out of O'Meara like an angry velociraptor and see if the Hawks cope. I also seriously doubt Hawthorn's defenders could cope at all if we bring our new and improved forward harassment to this game. I wonder how many turnover goals we'll get from Frost trying to run it and being mown down or kicking wildly in panic? My only concern is that a couple of Hawthorn's smaller forwards might get a little free and do some damage. That all comes back to our defensive effort to get back and give support. Simple fact is, if we play the way we've played so far this season we win, May and Fritsch or not. And there's the test.

Tom McDonald for one! All I can think of at the moment is players going in the other direction, which would seem more common too. Liam Jones the first and biggest present example of a player who switched ends and became something completely different.

I think the most painful part of the St Kilda game was in the last quarter seeing some body language and matching behaviour from a couple of the Saints' young guys. Max King very visibly just decided it wasn't worth the effort to put on a few steps worth of pressure when Richmond were breaking from a contest inside forward 50. It clearly wasn't just laziness; it came with a visible sigh of disappointment and futility. To see that from a player who kicked 5.2 and added two goal assists just the week before is a real worry. We all know and we have all felt the way a few massive hammerings can affect a team and especially the promising young players in that team. Very clearly the Saints have fallen apart once their spirit is broken on two occasions already this season. There is danger of that compounding horribly given they came into the season with high hopes and promises.

Apparently the season is a marathon and St Kilda will be fine. I didn't know Selwood had such a generous spirit. Port in Adelaide next week. Still, football is hideously fickle and I'm strangely glad we don't play them again.

Well, that sucks. Just a little bit better timing and we could have reshuffled with Brown coming in anyway. But these things happen throughout a season and that's why it was so valuable to go 4-0. Also, our frenetic forward tackle-squad is still intact. It is also an opportunity to cement the idea that it is the team that wins games rather than relying on particular players. Presumably Melksham gets used very explicitly as that final connection going inside 50, which is where he played the best in his career anyway so he'd better make use of his opportunity. Big moment for Jackson, too. A bit more pressure to be a focal point rather than just a delightful bonus.

I was wondering about just how rare it is for a teenager to be holding their own rotating as a ruckman and forward with such effectiveness. The only easy source I could think of was the '22 under 22' teams the AFL puts out. So, here's what I found for rucks; 2012: Nic Naitanui in his 4th season 2013: Tom Nicholls in his 2nd season... kind of confirming there aren't that many examples to work with. 2014: Jarrod Witts in his 2nd season. 2015: Brody Grundy in his 3rd season. 2016: Brody Grundy again. 2017: Peter Wright's 3rd season, when he played forward and had 5 hitouts a game, again the shortage of 'kid rucks'. 2018: Sean Darcy, in his second season, played only 8 games filling in but did well. 2019: Tim English in his 3rd season. 2020: Sean Darcy again. Touch wood, but Jackson seems to be an early lock for the spot this year and his realistic trajectory could see him surpass any other 2nd-year ruckman I can think of.

I've been enjoying picking over some individual curiosity stats that often don't mean much but which can be amusing. First up, we have two players in the top-10 of disposals per game - Oliver of course, at third and only a whisker behind Mitchell and Macrae, and then Petracca at 8th. Both also feature in clearances, with Oliver slipping slightly to ninth, Petracca in 23rd and Viney in 15th giving us three inside the top 25. Viney is back to his hunter-killer ways with more than 8 tackles a game putting him at 4th on average and thanks to a quick. James Jordan also in 4th place for tackles among rising star eligible players. Pretty sure 'JJ' is also 'Junior Junior'. Petracca is equal 4th for inside 50s, just ahead of Martin, which is nice. No surprise, Gawn is second to Grundy for total hitouts but is better than Grundy on every other conceivable measure. Bayley Fritsch still sits in second for marks inside 50, equal with Tom Hawkins. Strangely, I think it has been a different player in first every week. But the stat of 2021 for the Demons is still tackles inside 50, with an incredible SIX players ranked inside the top 25, plus Fritta correcting one of his deficiencies and coming in at 38th. Tom McDonald in 4th, Kysaiah Pickett in equal 5th, Charlie Spargo in equal 15th, Jack Viney in equal 21st, James Jordan and Alex Neal-Bullen both in equal 24th.

Three things Orwell most hated in language were cliches, hyperbole and obfuscation. So imagine how enraged his ghost must be that his own name has been turned into a wildly exaggerated cliche designed to distract people from serious thought. Hyperbole inflation is a definite pattern, with the power behind it being the terrifying rationalisation that is coming from all sides; "I feel strongly about this therefore it is offensive to disagree with me."

"4 ta this paint", you mean? ?

Is it too early for a 'Kozzie Pickett made me cry' thread? Although in this case (and probably many times in future) it'll be 'Kozzie Pickett made me nonplussed'.

Maybe it is just because he is an Essendon player but I have never quite been as excited about Merrett as pretty much everyone else in football. Strange. Certainly I can't see how he would be a value acquisition - even as a free agent - given our midfield strength and the salary cap pressure we will be under for the next couple of years. And, yeah, I do not understand or even respect the constant bagging and trade talk about Brayshaw.

Terrific news for the kid - it will keep people from trashing him on here for at least 18 months!

Surely, "You're not even Christian."

Just digging through related stats of curiosity; We've been fairly inaccurate and collectively 'they' have been unusually accurate. The 39.25 against us is only less accurate than Collingwood's opponents who have scored 48.29. That combination has created the odd looking stat of having 11 goals and 33 behinds more than our opponents, from just 35 additional inside 50s! We actually lead the competition for inside 50s and with a total of 50.58 we are behind only the Crows (56.59), Bulldogs (59.55) and Swans (65.56!) for total scoring shots and two of those teams have played North, who average 17.15 against them. In other news, Ben Brown has kicked 287.148 (66%) in his career. Just say'n, could be helpful.

Ouch. Won't be showing that to the loved one or any and all future children will be barred from playing. This is a big test for the team and I am glad we managed so well without him in the second half against Geelong. Lever was visibly fired up with the urgency of getting things organised and demanding no silly slips. It is also things like this that make getting that good early start (Four from four! Always fun to say!) so important. Huge relief that, ugly as it is, it is only expected to be a short period out. Hibberd in would be my choice because he has maturity, the good kick, and the intercept awareness to best fit our overall plan.

This game is not that big a deal. Dees comfortably.

Here's a weird piece of trivia; The last time both Melbourne and Carlton were both in the top eight at the end of a round was round 14, 2011. The last time Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond were all in the top eight at the end of a round was round 7, 2001.

A philosophical debate which has raged for centuries may finally be put to rest, 'Guns or butter? Why not both?'

Just once I would like to experience a decisive finals win with no doubt or fear. The last time was 2000, where I had the pleasure of getting home a little early from work and only missing the first (evenly matched) quarter of Demons vs Kangaroos. We promptly turned on a goal-festival and even had the luxury of not being worried by the Kangroos kicking a bunch in the last quarter, we were that much in control. That's my idea of a fun preliminary final.

Couple of thoughts in no particular order, with selective use of stats where it suits me! In rounds two and three Geelong only managed four goals in each second half. Leads me to think that without Dangerfield providing the inside-50s, score involvements, goal assists and any other offensive stat you care to name as well as clearances, Geelong struggle to sustain scoring power. Mitch Duncan (not Selwood) is Geelong's no.2 for just about everything that Dangerfield is no.1. Tom Hawkins isn't just Geelong's leading goal-kicker with more than double any other, he is also their leading generator of scores for others (goal assists, score involvements) and even their best pressure forward. Stanley/Blicavs are sharing ruck duties approximately 2/1 and Stanley is getting much more involved in general play than he ever has before. Fascinating match up for Gawn/Jackson. Tom Stewart warrants a defensive forward on him to limit his rebound as no other defenders bring the same quality of counter-attack. Isaac Smith has had a grand total of 5 contested possessions after three rounds of football and must be forced. Geelong have an unusual defence with almost all of them being 191cm+ but the tallest being Henderson at 196cm then Kolodjashnij at 193cm. It's a real shame Brown isn't available to stretch them, but Gawn will have a major advantage up there if he isn't being used to plug holes in front of Hawkins. On the flipside, Geelong don't have the kind of mobility in defence to control the Nibbler, Spargo, Viney, Jordan, Pickett swarm who are all in the top 30 for tackles inside 50 this season (along with, surprisingly, McDonald and Fritsch, with Jackson also just outside). Put another way, the Cats are in the very lowest group for inside 50s against them, and will be playing the AFL's top inside-50 team, and they don't have the players to cope well with chaos in their defence and are playing against the best forward pressure team (!!!) in the AFL right now. They will be relying on midfielders running hard to get back, over and over. Old midfielders. Old midfielders who they also need to be doing all the inside-50 work. I say, play on like crazy and be willing to bomb it to the contest if there is no clear option. Just this once. The little guys will kick 10 between them.