Little Goffy

Pushing the AstraZeneca recommendation back to the over-60s was based on accumulated evidence that identified the drop-off in side effect incidence was much better from age 60+ on, rather than the original estimate of 50+. There is a drop in the number of people experiencing medically significant side effects in the 50+ age group, but 60+ is half the rate of even that. If you vaccinated, say, 3 million people aged 60+, the incidence rate would mean about 300-500 people having side effects requiring medical attention and within that 300-500 there would be a proportion that would be very serious and even fatal. On the other hand, just a few weeks worth of a Covid-19 cluster spread without either large-scale vaccine coverage or lockdowns would kill hundreds - and then it would really get going. If you do know an over-60 who feels like they are being given the off-cut vaccine, just make sure they know that it is being limited to over-60s because the side effects are much, much rarer in that group. Maybe also mention that if Australia was in the septic tank situation like 90% of the world is right now, we would be slapping AZ into people's arms as fast as we could go. Being so cautious about using it is a matter of great circumstantial luxury but if we slack off too much we are inviting disaster upon ourselves.

Looking back on my earlier post I probably came across inappropriately cranky at @A_F. To begin with, I should probably have started my posted by saying 'the sentiment stripped of some hyperbole is correct both ways'! For me the key is to separate the items 'are we scoring' and 'is our forward line functioning well'. I'll start by being very clear that I think it CAN and sometimes HAS - McDonald, Fritsch and Pickett combined for 8 goals against Brisbane while McDonald, Pickett, Weideman and Fritsch shared 9 against the Dogs. But my concern is the increasing frequency of games where our mids and resting rucks are the source of our scoring while our forwards have been quiet. Fritsch and Pickett have both slowed significantly since their early season form and Weideman has been dropped after showing very little in five games. The Essendon, Collingwood and Adelaide games - clearly our three worst for the season - all shared the feature of almost no goal-scoring coming from full-time forwards.

Yep. Just by a whisker - 24 yrs 9 month V 24 years 10 months. If my estimate is right, we had eight players out there from the last four drafts despite not yet giving a debut to any of the 2020 draftees. Then we've got a fat wad of 25-years-olds who don't push the average up much - Petracca, Brayshaw, Nibbler, Langdon, Lever, Harmes and Salem, and of course Oliver at just 23 years. Our only 'old' players out there against Essendon were Hunt (26), Viney (27), McDonald (28), May (29), Gawn (29) and Hibberd (31). Just 6 players taking the field aged 26 or over.

I did say that both sentiments can be correct simultaneously. As to the bolded line; after his first six games Fritsch had 18 goals, in the 7 since then he has kicked just 10 including just one goal int he last two rounds. 'Realistic possibility' of not breaking 40 is what I said and is clearly a valid point given he would need 12 more goals in the remaining 8 rounds. That our defence is elite has no bearing on whether or not people should consider our forward line to be effective. If anything the forward deficiency is highlighted by the failure to dominate when we have such a priceless source of genuine intercept marks and quality rebounds rather than just killed contests in defence. It is clearly our weakness, it is clearly the reason why we haven't been able to put teams away and it is clearly the primary reason for both our losses this season. And, as I said, it is also an area with a very realistic prospect of getting sorted out and thereby making us unstoppable.

Both sentiments can be correct simultaneously. Our only goal-kicking forwards this year have been Mcdonald, Fritsch and Pickett. As noted previously, they've had two goals between them in the last couple of weeks and it isn't the first time they've had a collective drop-off. You'd have to check some history to find a team that finished a season on top of the ladder which also didn't have even a 40-goal forward on hand, but that's a very real possibility for us. If our forward line was functioning even to the point of three goals a game shared between the three main goal-kicking options, we'd be unstoppable. It is the weak point of our team but it is also an area we can realistically expect to see improvement.

Related article today on the afl site: Ladder vs top 8 I think the basic trouble is that out opponents have never looked completely beaten so in any given game we never really look a major class above. Still, with 5 wins and no losses against the other finals rivals I'm not too upset! Two things will decide how we go in September; First: Can we get the forward line producing goals again? Very noticeably in the last couple of weeks we've relied on midfielders, rucks and half forwards to kick goals and that is not sustainable. Many of our forwards have been up and down a bit all season but Pickett, Fritsch and McDonald have two goals total between the three of them in the last couple of weeks. Second: How will the kids deal with the long season? Once again, Melbourne's 22 on the weekend was younger than their supposed up-and-coming young opponents. In fact, at 24 years 9 months, Melbourne were older than only... yikes, on closer inspection, only Gold Coast fielded a younger team than us in round 15. That is incredible. I'm not so much worried about it as a depth factor - we have the luxury of multiple experienced and competent players available at Casey at the moment - as I am worried about simple fatigue. Physical and mental. The wall the Demons hit to the end their 2018 campaign is still there as a warning.

I particularly liked the way Brown was getting goals for Casey. Featured his trademark full-speed lead and marking with arms at full stretch. Completely impossible for a defender to do anything about without chopping the arms. Of course, it would still require our mids/half-forwards to properly honour the lead coming at them which is not currently a strength of ours, but if Brown is back to having the confidence and comfort to be doing that then he's got to come in. Jones looked 100% ready to be back at AFL and seemed to relish being in a few stoppages, too. Maybe it was the lower camera angles for a Casey game but he looked faster and fitter than he did even six weeks ago. Sparrow is shaping as a great kid and another youngster who has shown commitment to tackling and defensive effort from day 1. Um... I guess my answer is "YES".

Something about his neck fusing / neck muscles permanently clenching that meant that constant batterings were causing disproportionate damage. There was a beautiful moment in the Gus and Gawny podcast interview with Jones where Brayshaw kind of rhetorically asked Jones about 'doing the team thing and changing your role to a more outside one because injury was limiting what you could do in an inside role'. Just for a moment Brayshaw looked like a kid next to a hero, reveling in pride that there was a connection like that. Having said that, Jones just killed it for Casey today and that included a fair bit of time attending stoppages and centre clearances. He looked confident and very mobile.

Ouch. Nasty whack for Neville's knee.

Bit late but I'll offer: 6. May. Loved seeing Bomber forwards being nervous. All those contests, all that hunting and killing, and 100% DE. Ridiculous. 5. Oliver. Drive all day. 4. Lever. Contested/intercept marks make me happy. 3. Salem. Was Salem all day. Smart and calm. 2. Gawn. Was Gawn-quality all day and that's a top-6 effort even if it wasn't a spectacular game by his standard. 1. Petracca. Some huge moments but slips and is lucky to be ahead of Brayshaw because his disposal simply didn't cut it at times. The Winger Club memebers are both unlucky. I particularly think Brayshaw is really going in a #positive direction with his game now. Still almost no goals from our actual forwards is a worry, but a further honorable mention for 'team firstness' is Tom McDonald who only snagged one for himself but led the team for score involvements and is still one of the top tackling tall forwards in the AFL.

I swear that Essendon supporter wanted a free kick. Just poety.

I wonder; if Essendon supporters hadn't started booing wildly within the first five minutes because of one free kick that they reckoned should have been there (or whatever), would the Bombers have had a better run from the umpires? Did anyone else catch the mic'd umpire saying "Just stop yelling at me, Devon." Third quarter, I think. I have an Essendon-supporting ex from many years ago who would have been absolutely table-banging furious. Such joy.

The ultimate team player even managed to arrange for his baby to be born during the bye. What a champ. Coincidentally, much like his father's all-meat diet the kid is on an unusual all-milk diet. Expected to continue for at least the rest of this season. :D

Don't know if it is lockdown up here, a tiring week, or just that I forgot to eat today, but I'm hungry for the suffering of Essendon supporters. If anyone else recalls the scene from the Dark Crystal where the little dude is being forced to stare into the evil crystal and having his soul sucked out... that's what I'm hoping to see from Essendon supporters from about midway through the 3rd quarter.

WOW. In 55% time on ground - 1 hitout and 1 free kick against. I hope he gets a call from Kade Simpson to cheer him up.

Looks like we'll be spending the next couple of weeks playing whack-a-mole with teams trying to bob up into the top 8. Time for the Demons to turn some other fans dreams to dust for a change! :D

With Viney back in and Weideman out, I'm wondering if we'll see Petracca play a bit more time up forward. Certainly knows what he's doing up there and can provide a marking contest, a bullocking presence, and a pretty good instinctive shot on goal or goal assist. Be fun to have three housemates all running around up forward, too. (Trac, Spargo and Pickett) I'm trying to think of who Essendon could assign to cover him: Heppell or Laverde would just be overpowered. Redman? Francis? None of the talls could go with him, obviously. Nick Cox would be broken into pieces by quarter time.

Trivia question: When was the last time Essendon won a final without Kevin Sheedyas coach? Clue: Kevin Sheedy had only recently started playing at the time.

Certainly not scrapheap just yet. Even if he was, please be courteous and say he's been 'put out to stud'. If a couple of the younger guys drop off and aren't providing the manic pressure they need to, then Jones can be more than useful because even though he can't bring the closing speed he definitely can get to smart spaces to interfere with opposition rebounds or receive-and-snap. He's a smart player who will do the team thing and is still fit. Might be just what we need to steady us if the little mid-season fluctuation becomes a problem. Remember, we haven't lost a game with him in the team this year. And if the moment comes when we need someone to just constantly iron out Toby Greene for two hours I'm sure it would be a footballing achievement any self-respecting player close to retirement would want to add to their medals.

Oooh, it all makes sense now the pattern is explained. I think I've figured out the centreline. Dyson is a premium vacuum cleaner company. Kelly's is an Industrial strength vacuum cleaning company. And Merrett... plays for Essendon... (So childish of me)

Closer to delisted free agent targets than trade targets.

Just a hunch coming through, but have they all played in or coached (not necessarily won) a grand final below AFL level? If not, there's a whole pile of coincidence going on here. Hmm, I wonder if the line-by-line distinction is the type or timing of the grand final - before AFL career, after, or even during.

I'm half getting a bunch of them, like McLeod and Robinson both winning B&Fs after being traded/delisted, but not sure how Ford fits. Hall and Dunn not playing finals at their first club... and also they have each punched the other at least once... but don't know how Silvagni fits. Hudson and Mitchell were both WW2 bombers... but Robertson... drawing a blank. Yep, I'm useless. Back to work. Sigh.

Also was there on the day, and the two big things that were most clear were: - giving Collingwood lots of time to break away from and through congestion and kick cleanly to their talls who were presenting hard and in front. - failing to break away from and through congestion and then kicking loosely to our forwards who were either still trying to get to our forward line or giving half-intensity leads step-to-step or even behind their opponent. It all broke down very badly. I was interested in a few people suggesting that our scoring firepower isn't so much a problem because we've got a pretty good 'for' total overall. I think the trouble is the vulnerability of our forward line to severe droughts. Fristch, McDonald and Pickett are our leading goalkickers, combining for almost half our total goals, but all three of them can have very quiet games. On Monday each one of them had close to their worst individual game for the season. On Monday we kicked nine goals. Three from the ruckmen, 4 from the midfield/wingers, one from Nibbler and one from Fritsch. That'll won't cut it. But also... if we do get the forwards functioning consistently we will become truly terrifying.

It's a habit in my 'village' of family and friends to burn off some of the stain of a bad loss by watching some neutral football so a really disappointing loss like that without the 'plain digestive biscuits' to help settle the stomach is pretty rough. My poor wife was all but ready to call in sick she was feeling so bitter and annoyed post-game. Even as recently as a year ago she would be the one doing a bit of patient consoling and cheering up, but something has changed and now... she knows. Oh, she knows the pain of a true fan. I think this one upset her even more than the West Coast final because she wasn't so serious back then and there was the consolation that, well, it kind of made sense. She now deeply hates West Coast, Hawthorn and Collingwood. Didn't even need a particular reason to hate Hawthorn, it just happened by instinct. What a keeper.