Adam The God

So you're thinking Grundy for Tomlinson and Smith forward...? RE the May, Lever and Tomlinson record, I had to go back and double check this as I thought they'd dropped a game together last year or even this year, but spot on. That's a crazy record. It might partly be a result of the MC picking Tomlinson for very specific roles where he doesn't get exposed and allows the other two to intercept/win their roles, this could equally be wholly unfair to Tomlinson. But it is interesting we're clearly concerned about something there. He definitely held up, as did the May/Lever/Tomlinson partnership on King's Birthday. In fact, the entire team from the KB game will be available as of next week via Fritta (Petty didn't play), and I had thought for the majority of the season that minus Smith up forward, we'd basically go with that set up for the finals. However, with Petty's injury, it's opened up Smith as his replacement. I think there's definitely room for Grundy, but I reckon the MC have put a line through him now. That means, I think the forwardline we'll go with for finals (assuming TMac and BB are done - this seems likely) is JVR, Fritta, Smith, ANB, Kozzy, Chandler and Spargo. While the defensive set up could well be the same as KB (with Bowey missing out) - May, Lever, Tomlinson, Salem, McVee, Rivers and Hibbo (except Hibbo was tactical sub that day). This means Clarry would replace JJ from that KB team, leaving Max, Clarry, Trac, Viney, Brayshaw, Sparrow, plus Langdon and Hunter. The tactical sub choice could then come from either Grundy (as strange as that sounds), JJ, Harmes or Bowey. I know @old55 wouldn't have Spargo, so if you left Charlie out, you could play an extra mid or fit Bowey at the back. Equally, if you left Hibbo out, you could fit Bowey at the back. Here is the team as above. To me, it's a little short in the front half, but as we saw with the ball movement on KB, this isn't such a problem if we move it quickly and turn the ball over/intercept in the middle of the ground. McVee May Hibbo Lever Tomlinson Salem Langdon Oliver Hunter Petracca Smith ANB Fritta JVR Kozzy Gawn Viney Brayshaw Rivers Sparrow Spargo Chandler There's also a chance they could pretty much play this team against Hawthorn minus Fritta for the extra mid in JJ.

Injury List: Deebauched - TBC, brain injury resulting in cooked cancer takes

Yes he is...?

So you don't subscribe to @binman's view that Spargo and ANB basically play defensive winger roles that then flow forward to help offence, and that possession numbers are nice, but not the KPI? I do FWIW, hence my call for Spargo to come in. I think our forward 50 will look better if we can defend better through the middle of the ground and higher. But each to their own mate.

But on the inside 50 tackle count, we backed off for a half and allowed them to chip and handball receive from the kick ins. This was when Kozzy played higher up the ground. He played deeper in the second half and was tasked with tracking that runner from the kick out. That explains our lack of forward 50 tackles.

That's one way of looking at it certainly. But if we looked Collingwood's record and offset say half of their close wins against the rest of their close wins, they'd likely be out of the 8 altogether. So it shows you that these small margins can potentially be hugely importantly. A home final, let's say, or even the idea of missing the top 4 or top 8 altogether. And I know there's nothing we can do about it, but I think we will rue to some extent not getting over the line in at least half of those losses.

This is a bloody great post mate. Fast becoming one of my favourite posters. 🙌 I'd suggest sides are hyper aware of moving the ball quickly against us, so that they get 1v1s and don't allow our interceptors a chance to intercept, hence the 2nd highest CD1v1s. It is exceptionally rare that we lose inside 50s though, so even if there is a clear correlation between higher CD1v1s and losing inside 50s, we know we're bound to have relatively high CD1v1s either way, simply because modern ball movement has evolved precisely to beat Melbourne Football Club's back 7-8.

We definitely panicked on occasion with ball in hand and made poor decisions, but our structure and contest game absorbed their pressure beautifully. On actual score and expected score, given the repeat entries. Does anyone know if under Goody, we've ever had an inside 50 differential as high as that first quarter? I'd suggest we haven't. So the Blues' contest game was awesome in that first quarter. It's interesting, because the two goals JVR missed, he usually kicks both, if not at least one of those. That's the game. I think ultimately Carlton could be a more dangerous forward half team, and arguably more dangerous around the ball with their omissions, but I think our ceiling and scope for improvement on Round 22 is way higher. In retrospect, it's still a game we should have won and let slip. That's 4 now, I'd suggest, we've let slip. Port, Freo, GWS and Carlton. We didn't play well enough for long enough against Geelong. Those losses will cost us the minor premiership. But as long as we sew up the top 4, it might be okay.

Surely, we go with JJ out for Spargo and Grundy out for Hibbo. Seems like that might be it for Grundy at the MFC.

The idea that we somehow manufacture finishing 4th if we're leading in a game in Round 24 is lalaland thinking. Anywhere, any time is and will clearly be our philosophy.

Exactly, and our defence. He's become pretty much one of our main interceptors behind May and Lever.

Butters 😍

He's already playing high half back. If you're not moving him into the midfield, the only higher place is forward. Maybe we send Gus back to play the intercept role and release Rivers into the Salem back of stoppage role?

Doesn't he mostly play wing?

Why are we comparing Salem to ANB? It's like comparing Steven May with Kozzy Pickett. Salem is a half backer that we use off the back of stoppages as a quarterback and to reset and maintain possession. ANB is a speed forward that essentially plays a high forward role between A50 and D50, and helps us defend right across the ground and then lock the ball inside A50. Ridiculous...

Jaded's PA incoming... ;) Try the name on for a year. You might like it.

It's not my job to think, I just take notes and organise old mate's diary.

So you've heard this? Or guessing...?

Yeah, sorry about that mate. Seem to have started a non rumour snowball.

I don't think Lewis gets up. He's "in serious doubt" according to the AFL ap. I'd therefore go JJ for Spargo and play Hibbo sub. And give Gawndy one last roll of the dice. Some Grundy rucking with Max behind the ball as interceptor, wouldn't go astray...

Good call, but ah well.

That definitely computes. He's been brilliant I'd say since (and including) the Geelong match.

I think his latest work isn't a true reflection of his capabilities up the ground. He doesn't trust Tomlinson or Smith, but he trusted Petty and Lever, so we need to find him someone he can trust. Then it frees him up to at wherever we need him in D50 (deep or higher).

That won't happen. He's on 1mill and unless Carlton want to dump him and pay 350-400k, and he's willing to take a further haircut (doubt it), I can't see a way we ever get into that conversation. As for other tall backs, the dream scenario is Sam Taylor @rjay .

We're fortunate @whatwhat say what that we have some great talent scouts on here who I trust like @Pennant St Dee @ChaserJ @IvanBartul13.