Adam The God

Yes, inflation imposes limit. It is the limit! Not government debt. And in case you hadn't noticed, Australia and most of the world have been operating in a floating exchange rate environment for almost 50 years. Again, multiple central banks have done papers on exchange rate pass through being small to non existent, mostly because most import items are actually priced for the domestic market they're sold into. As it stands, we have next to no financial stability because nuffies like Chalmers and the RBA refuse to use fiscal policy to reduce inflation and they use NAIRU, a mythical, imagined number to manufacture enough unemployment to hopefully reduce inflation. That is not price stability. That is hitting and hoping, and crushing working people in the process. They could do what Japan has done for the last 5-6 years and provide oil importers the excess import margin in exchange for price caps. An anti inflationary fiscal expansion. I won't hold my breath that Chammers and co will use any sort of fiscal policy to reduce inflation. Instead, what we've seen since 2022 is inflation driven in part by interest rate rises, which feed through the rental component of the CPI. And back to your original thesis, no, government does not matter. It only matters politically, while we let it. Because foreigners have the choice between non interest bearing AUDs they accumulate in trade with us or interest bearing AUDs in the form of debt. Which one would you take? And again, Australia hasn't issued foreign denominated debt since 2004. So all its liabilities are in AUD, and Treasury is the only source of the AUD currency. Banks are allowed to create credit in AUD (the vast majority of the money supply), because they have exchange settlement accounts with the RBA in order to do business in this country. They use the reserves/AUDs in those accounts to carry out daily interbank transactions to ensure the functioning of the private banking system. But given you've mentioned exchange rates as a limit, it's pretty clear your thinking is still fixed in the Bretton Woods era, like most mainstream economists.

Michelle Bullock - "we actually have the ability to create money, if you like. We can continue to meet debts and we can continue to pay... ultimately the Reserve Bank is guaranteed by the government". I don't think you read what I wrote. I said it will fall to zero if debt isn't issued or the RBA doesn't pay an interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances... Where are these dollars then if they're not private savings? Floating about at the local park, I suppose?

You realise that Commonwealth debt is issued after spending (it doesn't fund the Commonwealth) and is issued voluntarily to manage interest rates. Higher interest rate environments lead to higher bank profitability - multiple central banks have conducted studies on this. Treasury ran a Debt Management Review in 2002 to end the debt market altogether but because it's corporate welfare to the banks and shadow banks, they complained and government agreed to keep it in operation. So those trillion dollars are private savings. If there was no debt issued after government spending, the inrerest rate would fall to zero/nothing or whatever rate the RBA had agreed to pay on Exchange Settlement balances. And private banks would lose profitability. And of course, then neoliberal politicians would have nothing to scare people like you with.

Seems like a really lovely bloke. Glad to have you Steeley. ❤️💙

Also, how was Lyon's patronising and arrogant press conference. "They played off side a lot, and we knew they would, but we let them do it too often". You mean we managed to move the ball quickly and efficiently, getting the ball out into space. It was not like we had a bunch of Joe the Gooses. He's a dill.

They had a lot of cheap possessions behind the footy. Their defenders and half backs use a lot of dinky little possessions that have very little incisiveness.

We only had one player over 20 disposals (Windsor). That's efficiency given the scoreline.

Lots of brilliant lowering of the eyes wasn't there? Really great to see. What King has been able to do in a very short time is McCrae-esque.

All federal spending is currency creation. All that spending occurs via the RBA crediting exchange settlement accounts, which create deposits in the private banking system. The state government is different, however, it is a currency user, it doesn't create new liabilities when it spends, but does have access to cheaper debt, and can afford $20 million dollars. As former RBA Governor Bernie Fraser once said, "governments have responsibilities that go beyond". But bang on about debt hysteria as if it's like a business or household.

Credit ratings are neoliberal facades. As Phillip Lowe said during COVID, "triple A credit ratings have more politiclal symbolism that economic importance". Again, if the political will for the community is there, this is a solid, low cost project to create a vibrant Caulfield hub around the racecourse and the school, which will be good for local business as it increases traffic to the area.

Currency users like the Victorian Government in theory have revenue constraints, but really, these are political constraints. If you think for one moment the Commonwealth would let Victoria collapse in the liabilities (AUDs) it issues, I think you're mistaken. I think the Commonwealth Games are not worth hosting. Political decision made. Caulfield has community benefits and is worth funding.

I'm not privy to them and wouldn't share publicly if I did know.

The state government is not broke. It is guaranteed by the Commonwealth and the RBA owns most of the semis issued by the Vic gov. Anyway, we're talking about a contribution of perhaps $20 million, which should be framed as a community initiative. Right now, public land is used by a select group of people and with our proposal, we'd be opening the space up to the public. Frame it right and the proposal is a drop in the ocean. Meanwhile, perhaps the state gov should bring back into public ownership some of the tollroads it helped build with federal funding and Kennett sold to foreign companies for 99 year leases.

We have met with the federal government as well, as to how that meeting went, I have no idea.

Someone posted on here the other day that staying out at AAMI Park until Caulfield is signed off is a legitimate leverage piece. And the CRRT have extended the MOU with the club for Caulfield, so it is conceivable we're getting closer, but I do wonder what leverage the AFL are applying for us to move to Waverley. Maybe the club needs to be more strategic in how they close this deal with the state government.

Heard an interesting little rumour today at training. Apparently the Caulfield Racecourse Reserve Trust have extended their MOU with the club, so despite near donuts on SEN this morning, let's hope the admin have this sewn up soon...

There's a pending state budget, so I think you'll find if there's something in there, we couldn't announce it until the Treasurer releases the budget papers.

The Victorian Government is guaranteed by the Commonwealth and vast majority of state and territory debt is owned by the RBA. All spending though is a political decision. I think this will still get done.

Is that you SWYL?

If you've watched the Fox Footy interview between Gary and King, King indicated Max would get rests this year. Again, I think we'll see more Chris Scott type management from King. Geelong have been experts at managing their older players.

Given the environments King has coached in, the likes of Scott and Bevo, I'd be staggered if he's not up for tagging the opposition playmakers.

If I'm a player agent, I'm advising my client to go to Melbourne over Hawthorn. The Merrett debacle will have ramifications. If you're going that hard, you need to get the deal done. Mitchell and Hawthorn looked incompetent.

I think we sort of want the Blues to get close to making the 8 and do nothing in finals. We want Voss there for as long as possible. A bit like Buckley at Collingwood, but Voss is even worse.

And also I'd imagine Tim plays a relatively hard game with Freo who continually poach our players. Not exactly an unbiased source then.

Yep, at this stage, I'm happy to load up on elite youngsters with JT at the wheel.