praha

You're not wrong mate. I've been one of those skeptical of then "linear improvement". Improvement in context is tangible growth against any metric, any variable. Cross-reference them and you might find improvement in a team that wins fewer games year-on-year but has a % increase. That's just the top 5 btw. The average % drop for teams that miss finals is about -17% year on year. That's 39 teams. 22 saw a drop off of >17%. 9 of them played finals the following year. So, the odds are actually against us. We can look at it many different ways. I know for a fact Hardwick was badly under the pump. Much in the same way Thompson was in 2007. But they demonstrated fairly quickly that the outlier was the % drop, not the preceding rise. Hence my comment that in 8 months we'll know whether we're a Carlton or a Richmond. Statistically, when you see this type of drop off, you either find it's a trend that lasts over a few years, or there is a sharp spike upwards. So either this year's crash has normalised our place in the league, or the crash is the aberration and we'll rise to the top. Unfortunately, historically, there is very little in between those two extremes. I don't think anyone here is calling for Goodwin to be sacked right now. But the further we sink, the less time he has. You need to fail quickly in this league. Reboot and rebound. But if we're not good enough, cut our losses and start again. We need to figure that out sooner rather than later.

Yes you're right but "aberration" does not <=> "fluke". It simply means "not normal", against the grain. Last year was a season filled with many highs but also quite a few lows that, in retrospect, reflected a game style that was far too volatile and predictable to be viable long term. Percentage is a great indicator of quality and what it reflected last year was that we won games by 30% more than our average losing margin. We also know that teams with a percentage of < 110% tend to not go very far in finals. The lowest % of the every premier in the 2000s and 2010 was 115% in 2016 by Bulldogs and in 2005 by the Swans. Basically you need a % of at least 120% to win a flag based on historical performances. Last year we were premiership caliber collectively across the season but considering the drop off this year we need to analyse where and how it's dropped off. I've had a look at every finals team dating back to 2001 and looked at their % rise or fall the following season. Here are the largest drops, season-on-season. This looks at % difference, not the total difference. Carlton 2001-2002 -43.13% 5th-16th West Coast 2007-2008 -41.04% 3rd-15th Melbourne 2018-2019 -38.66% 5th-17th Richmond 2015-2016 -35.42% 5th-13th Fremantle 2015-2016 -37.41 1st-16th So, as an example Carlton's % dropped 43.13% in 2002 (73.13%) vs their 2001 % (128.60%). Of those teams, only Richmond bounced back to play finals the following year. WC had two more years down and "won" the wooden spoon in 2010 (only because we piped them for the spoon in 2008). So historically we have seen one of the most significant drop offs this century year-on-year after a finals performance. Carlton - 3 wins in 2002 West Coast - 4 wins in 2008 Melbourne - 5 wins in 2019 Richmond - 8 wins in 2016 Fremantle - 4 wins in 2016 Richmond being the obvious outlier here, having bounced back to win a flag. We'll know in 8 months time whether we're a Richmond or a Carlton.

Pretty brutal, hey? "Yeah okay you're All-Australian but you miss goals out from 20 metres directly in front."

I'd rather keep him for another year than keep list cloggers and VFL stars like JKH and ANB.

aberration = break away from norm. Average finishing position 2014-2017 = 12th 2018 finishing position = 4th 2019 finishing position = 14th-17th Completely reasonable to call 2018 an aberration. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest it wasnt.

Pathetic the way we've let them bully us the last two times. I know we're far from relevant but fancy letting the Saints bully you as a club for a decade. Our performance against them earlier in the year was a disgrace. Goodwin up against solid competition in Ratten this week. Ratten has a poing to prove. I think the Saints will bury us tbh.

True but doesn't change the fact he's passionate. For all we know Goodwin may turn out to be a complete dud of a coach and we may find ourselves in rebuild mode for another 3-4 years. Or it may be that the Neeld hiring and subsequent firing kickstarted a chain reaction and call to arms that delivered us Roos then Goodwin and perhaps a flag. As bad as Neeld was, he acknowledged the club was broken and rotten. He may not have gone about it the right way but Lyon and Co. knew they needed a realist. But they needed a realist zen. Instead they got a realist with zero people management skills.

Lyon is trying to get a response. Reasonable to think last year was an aberration but we won't truly know that until probably mid-2020. By which point I suspect we'll either be heavily in contention or Goodwin will be gone. It's a disgrace the position we're in. A few on this board understate it quite a bit. But it's very difficult to bounce back quickly from this position. I think Goodwin and co. have "over cooked" the pasta with some poor player management and development choices as well as trades that at the time looked good but perhaps set us back. It's all been over cooked and after taking 4 steps forward last year, we took a bullet train 4km back in 2019. 2019 now is about saving *some* face but in typical Melbourne fashion I highly doubt we'll win another game this year. A 5-win season with <80% percentage is coach killing for a team with finals aspirations. We may even see Goodwin gone by the end of the season. Lyon speaks with emotion and frustration in his heart. He is a ruthless competitor. 17th at this stage is unacceptable no matter how you spin it.

I guess. But if you're 2-20 and "improve" to 4-18, well, yeah, you've "improved". But you're still [censored]. The "linear improvement" line is a bit like incoming inequality. It's a meaningless metric without context.

I swear you could just copy-paste any round and any match from this year and the posts are the same. Same could be said of literally any loss during the Goodwin era. We lose games the exact same way every time and we're now three years into his reign. We were run over by a better team despite controlling the play for 2 quarters prior and building a lead. We could barely get near it meanwhile the Eagles rarely left second gear. We work incredibly hard for so little reward. For my 30 years following this team our issues were always endeavor and work rate. How so very typically Melbourne that we've built a team with work rate engrained into its style and yet it's so entrained that we end up working ourselves into the ground and thus lose matches that should be win. It would be comical if it weren't so depressing. But therein lies the positive. The core is there. It's just extracting it of the rotten. We'll get there. Still not sure Goodwin is our guy, though.

Key stat. And people brush finishing 17th as just a "bump in the road". Trends.

Yes, they do. They're playing confident football but they have holes across the ground. That we're below them, I can't fathom how anyone could possibly justify or defend it.

Our performances are a symptom of his coaching. Even today he said he is sick of losing like this. He effectively admitted it. If today was treated in isolation I'd give him a pass. But we are 65 games into his coaching career and we are SECOND. LAST. ON THE. LADDER. With 5 rounds to go. In isolation, no, we didn't lose because of Goodwin. But he is "HEAD" coach. We are second last on the ladder ffs!

Oh dear, Gonz. Oh dear.... North and Saints have rubbish lists. North was playing finals a few years ago, had a mini crash and is now in finals contention. The Saints have been average for a while but they just smashed a team we never looked like winning against last week. Carlton have an absolutely putrid list. They currently sit above us, 75% through the season. Goodwin got a talented list on a role at the time. He and his team list management this year has been utterly awful, bordering on career ending. I found myself agreeing witu "spud" Frawley, that we've never seen such a significant drop. This goes far beyond player deficiencies and well into coaching failures. Open your eyes. We are second last ffs. The only team between us and 18th is Gold Coast for [censored] sake.

This post is a snapshot of MFC circa 2015-2019

4.3 to 1.2 last quarter.

everyone in the pub here is laughing and shaking their head in disbelief at Melbourne.

Brayshaw has been awful

I'm watching in a pub with no sound. What just happened?

May, my love!

What is going on lol

When did West Coast recruit Tyson Vickery?

Lewis is actually a good target.

Lewis having to telling Harmes to have a shot after marking from 40 out directly in front.....