praha

We were hyped up all pre season. The scrutiny didn't really appear until after the Brisbane loss but there's been heaps of coverage in the past month. What do you expect? I trust a loss this week will up the pressure gauge. If we don't win again for the year then the media will be licking it lips for the first month of 2020. They'll have Goodwin in their sights. That will be there regardless but if we can notch 8-9 wins for the year it'll be a solid end to the year. And it would give Goodwin an extra month. If he goes 0-7 to end the season, he'll be first on the inevitable "coaches under most pressure" lists.

Miami Heat sacked their coach in 2005/2006 season and won the championship. Official word was Stan Van Gundy resigned but he was definitely pushed. Granted, Pat Riley took over head coach role and he was like President, CEO and GM at the same time but still, pretty crazy. Anyone know if Bartlett or Pert can coach?

If we lose this the pressure gauge will go up a notch. We have them beat almost across the ground. A repeat of round 5 is unfathomable. And I swear to God, if those spuds Bruce and Membrey kick bags on us....I'll probably just vent on Demonland.

Misson only has 4-6 weeks left at the club.

Huge get if true.

I swear they've ripped those stats from Demonland. Most of them have been posted here in some capacity. They've just readjusted.

Gee whiz, 3-5. Back when there was still a glimmer of hope.

Lever is a smart and cleaner footballer than Howe. Howe has had a great past 2 season but he's also 4 years ahead of Lever. Dunn was a loss. Not quite sure why we got rid of him. Would have been handy this year and last. We've built a super backline that's played maybe 3 games together. Given our performances across the ground, recruiring May and JK in exchange for Hogan was a reasonable deal at the time. I don't think Goodwin and co could foresee our midfield falling from a top 4 caliber to a bottom 4 caliber overnight.

These are the key stats. I don't believe for a second that our forward like alone is the issue. Would also like a look at points scored for and against from rebound defensive 50, 2018 vs 2019. That image quite literally shows how we went from a team firmly in flag contention, to 17th. It was reasonable for "experts" to have us as a flag contender based on those stats because we were in the top across so many.

Gee whiz Gold Coast is terrible. I just checked that Useless AFL Stats page on facebook. Great page for a laugh. I don't know how they find some of those stats.

Yes, just as we get some stability down back, we send our prized defensive recruit forward... FMD this season can't end soon enough.

I looked at a similar range in another thread, mainly the % decrease in % and how it correlates with ladder position in a year after making finals. Only one team - Richmond in 2017 - with as significant drop as us this year was able to make finals a year after their own similarly major fall from grace. It is why it is integral the club acknowledges this and makes major changes asap. So many metrics paint a discouraging picture for 2020 but it's all historical. The odds are against us but we can turn it around. But it will come on the back of change. We won't succeed with the current plan and structure.

IMO Roos would have delivered a flag by now or at least in 2019. But not his fault for current predicament.

"They have been pathetic, and know one seems to know why. There better be a good reason other than injuries because I can't put my finger on it, nobody else can understand." https://www.sportsradio.com.au/they-have-been-pathetic-melbourne-legend-david-schwarz-slams-demons/

What stats do you need? Years without finals since Roos arrived: 5 Years with finals: 1 That one year is an aberration. That's just fact. I'm not saying it as proof that we won't improve or we won't play finals next year. But I'm saying that it is clearly an aberration on a grander scale. You're saying I'm manipulating for the sake of fitting my argument but you're the one saying improvements in win:loss -- not finals -- are the only metric to track improvement. Therefore this year is the aberration. Sure, it is the aberration if we're looking at win:loss in isolation. But I'm looking at finals as the metric. I don't care how many games we win if we're playing finals. If we win 15 one year and finish 4th but win 14 the next year and finish 3rd, I'm not going to chuck a stink because we won fewer games, am I? Lyon highlights that improvement in won:loss is really only a worthwhile metric if you're coming from a low point. We're beyond that now. Forget about that linear improvement. It's pointless now. Playing finals should be the only metric. Brisband was 0-12 last year and now is suddenly a legitimate flag contender, with finals locked away with 5 rounds to go. We took until round 22 to even start contemplating finals last year. Don't get me started on 2017. If it makes you feel better than yes this year is the aberration. However you want to look at it. I disagree and think we need to make more substantial changes to turn it around. I am not confident that things will just magically turn around for us next year.

There really isn't. Unless you don't consider finals a genuine KPI. Like I've said wins alone aren't a good metric in isolation. Look at ladder position, %. A number of metrics. Linear growth is reasonable if you're a 2 win side with a 50% percentage. But a season with finals is clearly the aberration. I can't see how you could argue otherwise. 12 out of 13 seasons without finals. Logic says that 1 season is the outlier. So yes this year is the outlier in a selective group of years that covers 2014-2019 in that it's the inly season without linear improvement. But it's also the 5th of 6 years where we haven't played finals. So in the much grander, "We're In This To Win Flags Not Just Improve Our Win-Loss Ratio" scheme of things, last year was the aberration.

Okay sure for the past 12 years it may have been a factor. What's the excuse for the other 43 years?

You're not wrong mate. I've been one of those skeptical of then "linear improvement". Improvement in context is tangible growth against any metric, any variable. Cross-reference them and you might find improvement in a team that wins fewer games year-on-year but has a % increase. That's just the top 5 btw. The average % drop for teams that miss finals is about -17% year on year. That's 39 teams. 22 saw a drop off of >17%. 9 of them played finals the following year. So, the odds are actually against us. We can look at it many different ways. I know for a fact Hardwick was badly under the pump. Much in the same way Thompson was in 2007. But they demonstrated fairly quickly that the outlier was the % drop, not the preceding rise. Hence my comment that in 8 months we'll know whether we're a Carlton or a Richmond. Statistically, when you see this type of drop off, you either find it's a trend that lasts over a few years, or there is a sharp spike upwards. So either this year's crash has normalised our place in the league, or the crash is the aberration and we'll rise to the top. Unfortunately, historically, there is very little in between those two extremes. I don't think anyone here is calling for Goodwin to be sacked right now. But the further we sink, the less time he has. You need to fail quickly in this league. Reboot and rebound. But if we're not good enough, cut our losses and start again. We need to figure that out sooner rather than later.

Yes you're right but "aberration" does not <=> "fluke". It simply means "not normal", against the grain. Last year was a season filled with many highs but also quite a few lows that, in retrospect, reflected a game style that was far too volatile and predictable to be viable long term. Percentage is a great indicator of quality and what it reflected last year was that we won games by 30% more than our average losing margin. We also know that teams with a percentage of < 110% tend to not go very far in finals. The lowest % of the every premier in the 2000s and 2010 was 115% in 2016 by Bulldogs and in 2005 by the Swans. Basically you need a % of at least 120% to win a flag based on historical performances. Last year we were premiership caliber collectively across the season but considering the drop off this year we need to analyse where and how it's dropped off. I've had a look at every finals team dating back to 2001 and looked at their % rise or fall the following season. Here are the largest drops, season-on-season. This looks at % difference, not the total difference. Carlton 2001-2002 -43.13% 5th-16th West Coast 2007-2008 -41.04% 3rd-15th Melbourne 2018-2019 -38.66% 5th-17th Richmond 2015-2016 -35.42% 5th-13th Fremantle 2015-2016 -37.41 1st-16th So, as an example Carlton's % dropped 43.13% in 2002 (73.13%) vs their 2001 % (128.60%). Of those teams, only Richmond bounced back to play finals the following year. WC had two more years down and "won" the wooden spoon in 2010 (only because we piped them for the spoon in 2008). So historically we have seen one of the most significant drop offs this century year-on-year after a finals performance. Carlton - 3 wins in 2002 West Coast - 4 wins in 2008 Melbourne - 5 wins in 2019 Richmond - 8 wins in 2016 Fremantle - 4 wins in 2016 Richmond being the obvious outlier here, having bounced back to win a flag. We'll know in 8 months time whether we're a Richmond or a Carlton.

Pretty brutal, hey? "Yeah okay you're All-Australian but you miss goals out from 20 metres directly in front."

I'd rather keep him for another year than keep list cloggers and VFL stars like JKH and ANB.

aberration = break away from norm. Average finishing position 2014-2017 = 12th 2018 finishing position = 4th 2019 finishing position = 14th-17th Completely reasonable to call 2018 an aberration. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest it wasnt.

Pathetic the way we've let them bully us the last two times. I know we're far from relevant but fancy letting the Saints bully you as a club for a decade. Our performance against them earlier in the year was a disgrace. Goodwin up against solid competition in Ratten this week. Ratten has a poing to prove. I think the Saints will bury us tbh.

True but doesn't change the fact he's passionate. For all we know Goodwin may turn out to be a complete dud of a coach and we may find ourselves in rebuild mode for another 3-4 years. Or it may be that the Neeld hiring and subsequent firing kickstarted a chain reaction and call to arms that delivered us Roos then Goodwin and perhaps a flag. As bad as Neeld was, he acknowledged the club was broken and rotten. He may not have gone about it the right way but Lyon and Co. knew they needed a realist. But they needed a realist zen. Instead they got a realist with zero people management skills.

Lyon is trying to get a response. Reasonable to think last year was an aberration but we won't truly know that until probably mid-2020. By which point I suspect we'll either be heavily in contention or Goodwin will be gone. It's a disgrace the position we're in. A few on this board understate it quite a bit. But it's very difficult to bounce back quickly from this position. I think Goodwin and co. have "over cooked" the pasta with some poor player management and development choices as well as trades that at the time looked good but perhaps set us back. It's all been over cooked and after taking 4 steps forward last year, we took a bullet train 4km back in 2019. 2019 now is about saving *some* face but in typical Melbourne fashion I highly doubt we'll win another game this year. A 5-win season with <80% percentage is coach killing for a team with finals aspirations. We may even see Goodwin gone by the end of the season. Lyon speaks with emotion and frustration in his heart. He is a ruthless competitor. 17th at this stage is unacceptable no matter how you spin it.