Fat Tony

Vince is one of our first picked players and will replace Toumpas, who still looks off the speed in terms of decision making and looks undersized at AFL level. Dawes is a dilemma for the selectors. He will probably replace JKH, who sits below Kent on the pecking order IMO. However, Dawes will probably leave our forward line too top heavy, as it looked perfectly balanced with two genuine talls (Hogan and Frost) and two mid-size talls (Watts and Vandenberg). Frost is the other option if Dawes comes in, but his pace and aggressive tackling was first rate on Saturday and he could be a star. (Frost reminds me a bit of Nic Nat with his pressure around the stoppages.) This option also means Dawes has to be the second ruck. Brayshaw will probably start as the sub given he has played the last four weeks. B Garland, T McDonald, Jetta HB Howe, Dunn, Salem C Vince, Cross, Lumumba HF Watts, Hogan, Viney F Vandenberg, Dawes, Garlett Fol Jamar, Tyson, N Jones Int Brayshaw, Kent, Newton, Frost Emg Michie, M Jones, Kennedy-Harris I would run Cross with Griffen and Viney with Shiel. Let Jones go head to head with Treloar or Ward.

Garland has had one bad year after undergoing ankle surgery late in the pre-season. The year prior to that he almost won the Bluey. He needs to show he can get his fitness back but the comparison to Juice Newton is egregious.

Fat Tony’s Team B Garland, T McDonald, Jetta HB Grimes, Dunn, Salem C Vince, Cross, Lumumba HF Watts, Hogan, Howe F Vandenberg, Pedersen, Garlett Fol Jamar, Tyson, N Jones Int Brayshaw, Kennedy-Harris, Newton, M Jones Emg Michie, Viney, Frost Notes: I hope Roos goes relatively small and we play Pedersen as second ruck/forward over Frost or Gawn. This is based on him being a more natural and more mobile forward. Brayshaw looked ready made when we drafted him and has been receiving glowing reports in the VFL. I have him over Viney. N Jones to play head-to-head on Ablett if he plays in the midfield, otherwise Garland if he goes forward. Vince to start with Bennell, Cross with Prestia and Tyson with Swallow. Vince and Howe are in our best five players, so I would play them in the AFL if they are ready. Garland was ordinary against Freo, but was better in the last two weeks. I think GCS will go with only two tall forwards, so we need to have players who are flexible enough to play small and tall. People have short memories and forget how good he was in 2013 and are pinging him on an injury riddled season last year. I like Kent over Kennedy-Harris, but JKH was reportedly better performed last week. I like what Vandenberg adds to the team. The sub could be any of Vandenberg, M Jones, JKH, Brayshaw, Howe or Vince. Demons by 9 points.

Firstly, I think Demonland has gone too negative too early on a bunch of meaningless practice matches. Roos has done a fine job at managing our list in difficult circumstances. This is the most important aspect of coaching IMO, because the players make the coach. While Roos’s game style is very negative, game plans are virtually identical across the AFL these days. Personally I would like to see us become a bit bolder and play on more when we initially regain possession. And I think we are a bit too willing to give ground once we win a possession from a stoppage. But these are minor philosophical differences and who knows what Roos’s instructions are anyway. I also think Roos tends to overvalue height in team selection and our forward line can be too top heavy.

Most midfielders drafted early on will play games in the first year. And our best 22 is poor, particularly in the midfield. Brayshaw looked capable of playing AFL last year.

I watched a few of Hogan's games in 2013 and he dominated, but the VFL is much slower and he is poor at ground level versus AFL players. You cannot carry more than two slow players (max) in the forward line these days. It looks good on paper but it doesn't work.

No way we should play two rucks. Hogan and Dawes are poor when the ball hits the deck and so we need the added mobility.

My observations: • Tom McDonald is still a liability with ball in hand and is not in our best 22 IMO. • Garland had a poor game but he clearly needs to get some games under his belt and will get better. • Grimes made the same mistakes as last year and will need to improve significantly to make it into best 22. • Frost looks fantastic with his pace and must play. But a backline of him and McDonald lacks the skill required. • Newton looks a good get, as does Vandenberg. • JHK is behind Kent and Garlett and probably Bail and so I don’t see him in our best side. • We would be crazy to play two ruckmen given Dawes and Hogan are both poor when the ball hits the deck. Dawes may even need to become the second ruck unless Pedersen or Fitzy can improve. My best 22 ATM is: Jetta, Frost, Garland Salem, Dunn, Howe Vince, Cross, Lumumba Bail, Hogan, Kent Garlett, Dawes*, Watts Jamar, N. Jones, Tyson Viney, Newton, Vandenberg TBD * Pedersen for Round 1.

Scott Selwood is criminally underrated in this thread. Statistically he has been very similar to Nathan Jones over the last three years, albeit 2014 was injury interrupted. As a FA from Victoria, of course he should be a prime target. Jones 2012 – 21 games, 24.6 average disposals per game, 97.5 SC points. 2013 – 22 games, 23.1 disposals, 90.0 SC points 2014 – 22 games, 27.7 disposals, 108.1 SC points S Selwood 2012 – 22 games, 24.9 average disposals per game, 104.0 SC points. 2013 – 18 games, 25.6 disposals, 103.8 SC points 2014 – 12 games, 20.9 disposals, 80.3 SC points

The changes seem a good one to me. The Academies are a rort. Edit: spelling

The trade looked a bad deal before Barry retired and Evans was delisted. But it ended up to be fantastic.

We used similar tactics to get Howe as the lone flyer in marking contests in defence. It is a good tactic, but it is bad for the game.

Defenders Certain: Howe Probable: Dunn, Jetta Likely: T McDonald, Garland Maybe: Frost, O McDonald, Grimes, Michie, Toumpas, Terlich, Hunt, White Midfielders Certain: N Jones, Vince, Tyson, Lumumba Probable: Cross, Viney Likely: Watts Maybe: Newton, Brayshaw, M Jones, Neal-Bullen, McKenzie, Harmes, Vandenberg Injured: Trengove Forwards Certain: Hogan Probable: Dawes Likely: Garlett, Kent Maybe: Bail, Petracca, Kennedy-Harris, Salem Rucks Likely: Jamar, Pedersen Maybe: Gawn, Fitzpatrick, Spencer, King Overall Certain: N Jones, Vince, Tyson, Lumumba, Howe, Hogan Probable: Cross, Viney, Dawes, Dunn, Jetta Likely: Watts, T McDonald, Garland, Jamar, Pedersen, Garlett, Kent Maybe: Newton, Brayshaw, M Jones, Neal-Bullen, McKenzie, Harmes, Vandenberg, Bail, Petracca, Kennedy-Harris, Salem, Frost, O McDonald, Grimes, Michie, Toumpas, Terlich, Hunt, White, Gawn, Fitzpatrick, Spencer, King Injured: Trengove

I think Howe should be played in attack if they start paying more free kicks for blocking in the marking contest. But he is better in the backline if they maintain the same interpretation as 2014. http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-football-boss-mark-evans-says-holding-the-ball-blocking-areas-of-focus-for-rule-changes/story-fni5f22o-1227136018059

I don’t think we should include Gawn and Jamar in the same side. Dawes and Gawn (and Hogan) in the same 22 will make our forward line too slow. I strongly favour playing Pedersen as the second ruck (and probably Fitzpatrick if Pedersen is injured). This is an analysis of the different combinations used in 2014, showing the SuperCoach averages per player and the number of times each combination was used in brackets. Jamar, Pedersen, Dawes – 79 (8) Jamar, Gawn, Dawes, Fitzpatrick – 75 (1) Jamar, Gawn, Dawes, Pedersen – 74 (4) Spencer, Pedersen, Dawes – 74 (2) Jamar, Gawn, Dawes – 70 (3) Jamar, Gawn, Dawes, Fitzpatrick, Pedersen – 61 (1) Spencer, Fitzpatrick, Pedersen – 58 (3)

No way. It is not worth risking our most valuable player in a role he isn't really cut out for. Pedersen or Fitz is the back up for 2015 and re-assess thereafter.

Jetta – Dunn – Garland Howe – McDonald/Frost – Grimes © Lumumba – N Jones © – Watts Bail – Hogan – Kent Petracca – Pedersen – Garlett Jamar/Gawn – Tyson – Vince Viney – Brayshaw – Cross Salem

He is already 4cm taller than Pederson.

Oscar looks to have more natural size and a higher skill level than Tom. His ball drop looks more natural. I think he might develop into a mobile forward/second ruck.

This is what you want to read when you have #2 . http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-18/top-pick-not-clearcut

De Goey looks a bit like Scott Thompson (Adelaide) from the highlights video IMO.

Many players have had multiple ACL injuries, far more too many that could be attributed to chance. (Schwarz, Morabito, Menzel, Gawn, Malceski, Bailey, Walker etc)

As far as I can tell, this isn’t an easy choice. McCartin’s endurance is the biggest concern about him IMO. The AFL game today is played in a ‘concertina’ fashion, whereby forwards must push all the way up the ground to half back and then work all the way back to present inside forward 50. Also against McCartin, I feel that contested marking is also an overrated skill in junior football, as there are more one-on-one marking contests than in the AFL. This is not to say I wouldn’t take McCartin (I haven’t done the homework) but I would need to gain comfort that his skillset could translate to the AFL game. With Lever, I like his bio. If he can develop into a midfielder he looks a pro-type AFL player. But I think the risk of doing his ACL again should not be understated (as the risk of re-injury is quite high and the impact is devastating). While believing in drafting ‘best available’, I also don’t think we need a key defender given we have Frost, McDonald, Garland, Dunn and Howe on our list. Laverde is the other name being mentioned and he looks to have a lot of AFL qualities, but hasn’t shown himself to be a productive midfielder. I definitely wouldn’t take Wright at #3, as ruckman need to be clearly superior to the rest of the draft pool to be worth the risk of an early selection. Hopefully the Saints do us a favour and take McCartin.

The major error was signing Terlich before the trade period.

Jetta - Dunn - Garland Howe - McDonald/Frost - Vince Lumumba - N Jones - Watts Kent - Dawes - Salem Pederson - Hogan - Garlett Jamar/Gawn - Tyson - Cross Viney - Brayshaw* - Grimes M Jones