Fat Tony

I have us winning the flag, but wanted to be conservative in the valuation.

Goodwin was pretty strong that he wanted Hogan to stay when he was On the Couch recently. Goodwin may have changed his mind since then, but it may also be that Hogan doesn't want to extend his contract and we are trying to make the most of it by being open to trading him this year.

I understand that points are only used for Father Son and Academy selections, but the formula is based on the historical success of each pick and it is a good guide for each pick’s relative value IMO. In my mind a fair deal for Hogan would be around 3,400 points in draft picks, which is worth pick 1 this year (likely Walsh, Lukosius or Rankine) plus an early third round pick. I would assume we finish 5th next year and would value our first round 2019 pick at 1,161 less 10% = 1,044 points and I would assume Fremantle finishes 10th, valuing their first round 2019 pick at 1,322 points. The 10% discount rate on both reflects the time value of this year’s pick over last years. Based on this analysis, pick 4 and Freo’s 2019 first round pick is thereabouts fair value. In saying this, I would take accept combination of swapped picks in the draft to achieve 3,400 points.

Well done Bernie! You are one of my favourites. Let's hope you haven't played your last game and you get to lift the cup!

Goodwin needs to realise we can’t win a flag with an old, slow backline. Particularly with Oscar as our key defender and no Lever.

Austin Bradtke said on the video on the MFC website that he will be focusing on weights and running laps because his skills are "pretty good".

Based on the points system, I have Lever valued at around Pick 5. This depends on a range of variables, including the discount rate on future picks, the quality of each draft, next year’s finishing position and compensation picks. The key variable is really where Melbourne finish in 2018. Pick 10 (1,395) + MEL R1 2018 (1,395) + MEL R4 2018 (100) - Pick 35 (460) - ADEL R2 2018 (550) = 1,880 = Lever So I see this as being still a decent trade for Melbourne and probably around fair market value. For example, I would rather the proven Lever over Noah Balta, who is 5th on Knightmare’s Power Rankings. (Not that I have seen Balta play.) It is a bad trade if we finish in the bottom 4.

It sounds like he will leave for money not because he doesn't like living in Adelaide or has an issue with the Crows

Why would Adelaide let Lever go if salary didn't matter? Managing the cap well is one of the biggest keys to success in the AFL. That's also why Hawthorn let Lewis and Mitchell go. I'll be happy if we get him, but it is sensible enough to worry that we are overpaying a player based on potential and we then might lose other talent down the track.

Good analysis, but it's too early to grade the last three. 4/13 still isn't a great strike rate.

It seems that way, but it could also be happenstance. Frost was injured early in the year. Then OMac went out of form and Gawn and Spencer got injured and Hogan ill, meaning that TMac had to ruck. Then Frost's form deteriorated in the difficult conditions. The other point you have raised is how OMac, TMac, Lever an Hibberd fit together. Hibberd is essentially playing the same role as Lever and arguably is better. Personally, I think we need a quality outside midfielder more so, but I get the attraction for Lever given his age and ability.

When did Alex Rance become a star? He also had fundamental skill issues until he was about 23, which is the same age as Frost. Liam Jones took until 26 to come good. Ted Richards is another example of a late bloomer. Jeremy McGovern did not get a game until he was 22. Just because Frost struggles at times with his skills, doesn't mean he won't improve.

I understand your argument against playing all three, but I feel that it is not cut and dry. The two issues with playing a tall backline I see are 1) chemistry - particularly knowing when and when not to fly; and 2) ensuring there is enough pace and skill when we have the ball. The first issue was a big problem against Hawthorn, particularly after McEvoy took a big mark. Everyone wanted to go up to spoil and it ended up costing us the game. Still, I think this problem can resolve itself through all three playing together more often. The second issue is really a skill issue given the athleticism of TMac, OMac and Frost. Frost and TMac are clearly athletic enough to play on smaller opponents and Oscar played very well on Dickson against the Bulldogs. I agree skill is a problem here, but I also note that the best sides in the competition have big forward lines. Adelaide have Walker, Jenkins, McGovern and Lynch. GWS will possibly go with Cameron, Patton and Lobb. Sydney have Buddy, Reid and Tippett or Sinclair. We need to have a set up to match this.

I like Frost. His closing speed and length make him a valuable defender and his athleticism means he can break the game open when we have the ball. He had a bad month with his skills and that is why he is out of the team now. But I also think he has suffered from us playing in difficult conditions in Darwin, Hobart and Canberra. I also am not of the view that we cannot play all three of Oscar, TMac and Frost in the backline. Defensively I think they are athletic enough to play on smaller opponents, particularly in a zone set up. I think we lose a bit of skill down back, but we could shift Hunt up to a wing to compensate. I also think Oscar's kicking and decision making is underrated by being Tom's brother. I see his issues being more intensity and strength related. This is not to say we should not go for Lever, because he is obviously a young gun. But he is definitely not a need IMO and I am unsure if giving up Frost and high picks is a huge win.

That's the John Ralph quote.

Scoop McClure said Billings was set to announce a new deal with St Kilda very soon on SEN this morning.

Adelaide play Essendon and we want the Crows to win.

I would love to bring in Lever at the right price, he looks like being a star of the game for a decade, but I hate ProDee's solution of trading Frost. I think his athleticism is exceptional and he can provide both great run from defence and great pressure. At 23 and only 50 odd AFL games, he is already a very good AFL player and could develop even further. I think a backline including a developed Oscar McDonald, Frost and Lever would be very strong. (With Tom McDonald as a forward/swingman.) However, personally I think our greatest need is outside class and pace in the midfield.

Trengove is only average though and is no better than Tom McDonald or Frost. While I think the need for a key defender is overstated by our injuries, Lever is quality and the one we want.

Trengove is a similar but inferior player to Tom McDonald IMO.

He will definitely cost a first round pick. PS Supercoach points are not perfect but they are probably the best single data point indicator of output IMO.

Obviously it would be great to add a player with both pace and skill, but personally I think we need leg speed in the midfield more to compliment Lewis, Tyson, Jones, Viney, Oliver, Salem etc. The other point I would make on Zak Jones is that he is behind only Oliver, Nathan Jones, Hibberd, Pederson, Viney, Lewis and Harmes in terms of average ranking points per game at Melbourne and behind only Oliver, Nathan Jones and Viney in total ranking points. He would be a great get IMO given the cost and his age.

Our defence has been very unsettled this year due to the injuries and suspensions of Gawn and Hogan. I doubt we would think this is our major problem if we had have played with Tom McDonald and Frost as our key defenders every week and with Gawn coming back to help out. While Frost and Tom McDonald are not good kicks, IMO both are decent defensively in the air and they are both extremely athletic which makes them hard to beat on the ground. Clearly Oscar isn't up to AFL yet, but he has some good attributes - height, elite endurance and decent natural skill level. He plays golf off a handicap of 3 and is a better kick than his brother. He times his spoils fairly well also. He mostly lacks strength and intensity and his decision making is poor, all of which is common for young key position players. This is not saying we shouldn't go after May, but he is a player in hot demand and will cost a lot in salary and picks. Personally, I feel we could add to our team in other areas at less cost. The other point I would make is that two key defenders is enough with Gawn in the side IMO.

Stretch does not have the explosive pace or toughness that Zak Jones has. While Stretch has better decision making and kicking than Jones, I feel he is actually slow for an outside midfielder (and about average pace versus the entire AFL pool.) I hope Stretch becomes a better player than Jones and think he will have a decent AFL career. But Jones, at 22, is already ranked 67th in the total competition for Supercoach ranking points and 101st for average Supercoach ranking points. He is also 8th in the competition for average running bounces, equal with Jayden Hunt.

May is from Darwin. I know he went to Melbourne Grammar, but I don't think the pull to Victoria is not a key factor.