Fat Tony

Got to say that our reward for winning a Prelim Final in Perth reminds me of Stonecutters episode of The Simpsons. Remove the ball of shame! Attach the ball of triumph!

Our game plan is incredibly ridged and each position has set roles. I think we will go with Smith or Hibberd to play a deep defensive role on the oppositions best fast forward. Who plays that role if our small backs are Hunt, Bowey, Salem and Rivers? We have had at least one of Jetta, Hibberd or Smith in the side in all games except for GCS and WCE. Bowey is the one at risk if Hunt is fit IMO and Hunt is much more physically equipped for finals. Hibberd could replace Smith but it is very even and both have strengths and weaknesses.

All year we have proven that we are far and above the rest of the AFL in games once we are able to establish numbers behind the ball. Goodwin has developed an incredible defensive system which is based around Gawn, May and Lever. Brayshaw is also crucial, effectively playing a Lever type defensive role on one side of the ground. We are a bit more vulnerable when the ball hits the deck but this is really a low probability way for the opposition to win because it opens them up to the counter attack led by Langdon, Hunt, Petracca, Fritsch and Pickett and means that we can move the ball into a vacant 50. But it can work as Adelaide and Hawthorn showed in the season if the crucial 50/50 balls go their way. The other way we can lose is if we get beaten too badly at centre clearance and stoppages. Our losses versus Pies, GWS and Dogs were examples of this. We also nearly lost to the Swans due to losing centre clearance 17-4. If we can neutralise centre clearance, kick straight and have a reasonable run with injury from here the opposition will need to find something new to beat us.

Text from a non Demon last night: Melbourne’s structure are elite. Every player knows exactly where to be - all the time.

We lost the clearances, kick poorly from set shots and didn’t defend the ground ball particularly well. If it clicks in the next few games the opposition won’t get close.

It will be the weekend prior.

I reckon Bowey will go out for Hunt if fit or Pig. We will want more out of TMac but I don’t see Melksham likely to replace him.

Looks like we’ll only win two finals on September again. Oh well.

Three more steps to the top of Everest Demons!

Yep at 8.30pm

The big problem with the stoppages is it is an area where we have the ruck advantage but the Lions have been able to dominate us in the last 2.5 games. We will need to bring our A game on the inside to win.

The Lions scare me more than any side. They are 14-6 since Round 5 and are ranked second on the Squiggle's Flag Pole. They have been able to bully us in the midfield the last two times we played them. Last year they scragged us at the stoppages and the umpires were too lenient on holding the man. This year they were too tough in the first half before we were able to turn the tables after half time. We need to make sure we break even in the clearances and Max needs to continue to take the ball out of the ruck. Daniher is also a worry because he is unstoppable when on. Cameron is also a very tough match up for any opponent. We should be confident but we will need Lady Luck on our side this week.

Agree with this. Adding a gun small forward makes more sense from a fit perspective (i.e. Bolton, Cameron, Ryan, Butters, Rozee or Papley). The spots of Brown, TMac or Spargo would have to be the most at risk if we land Gunston. ANB's role is different and plays more in the midfield. Pickett has explosive pace. Fritsch is our best forward. Jackson is a unicorn. That said, a fit Gunston is a very flexible player because he is such a great kick and has been able to apply pressure. He can play back and wing also.

It's not always the case that the best performing rising star is also the one with the biggest scope for improvement. This year it is.

Brian Lake won a Norm Smith and 3 flags.

I agree that Smith is a better interceptor than Hunt/Pig (although mostly due to leap rather than height) but there is a potential problem with having too many players being able to take intercept marks if they fly against each other. I like Smith also but the chemistry between him and the other key defenders and Gawn is the main concern.

I don't think the difference between Rivers, Hunt, Smith, Bowey and Hibberd is much at all. All five players have their strengths and weaknesses. Rivers and Hunt are obviously in the box seat given they have played most of the year. Bowey has been excellent so far against lesser teams and was ok on the weekend. He struggles a bit in the air and his lack of strength is a concern. Smith is a superior athlete but not as skilled or as good a decision maker. Hibberd's form has turned down a bit but he still has the strength you want in a final. Pig has played some great games this year, blanketing Martin (before injury), Greene (who kicked 3 but had very little possession) and Stringer (after quarter time). We have good depth in this area.

Possible trade Eishold, Godfrey, Hopgood, Bartram and Spencer for Cerra

Here is the current side and AFL Player Ratings: Trent Rivers (35) Harrison Petty (33) Jake Lever (91) Joel Smith (36) Steven May (95) Christian Salem (93) Angus Brayshaw (35) Clayton Oliver (99) Ed Langdon (52) Alex Neal-Bullen (46) Tom McDonald (86) Charlie Spargo (24) Kysaiah Pickett (65) Ben Brown (70) Bayley Fritsch (83) Max Gawn (96) Christian Petracca (99) Jack Viney (63) Luke Jackson (53) James Harmes (51) Tom Sparrow (15) Jake Bowey (13) James Jordon (28) Other Players: Jayden Hunt (47) Majak Daw (79) Neville Jetta (61) Mitch Brown (56) Marty Hore (52) Michael Hibberd (45) Sam Weideman (36) Jake Melksham (35) Adam Tomlinson (30) Nathan Jones (24) Aaron vandenBerg (19) Jay Lockhart (17) Oskar Baker (16) Toby Bedford (13) Kade Chandler (13) The AFL Player Ratings of some players are obviously skewed by opportunity. (Oliver would have a lower rating if he played Sparrows game time/role and vice versa. Brayshaw also has a very low rating due to our game plan limiting his involvement to the defensive wing. The ratings are also impacted by games played (i.e. Bowey at 13). My take on the best way to improve our list: We have a lot of money tied and years tied up in the midfield (Petracca, Viney, Oliver and Harmes) and backline (May, Lever, Salem). Ben Brown has 3 years left and we need to try to have players in the forward line which complement him. Retaining Jackson and Oliver long term should be a priority, so we need to save our salary cap space. Upgrading our small/mid-sized forwards would be the easiest way to improve our side. We could get natural improvement from Spargo, Sparrow, Chandler and Laurie, but this should still be our focus IMO. Upgrading Brayshaw to a more natural winger would also be something to consider. However, we have Rosman on the list who has shown potential and the current game plan has got us to top of the ladder. Even if we had a more natural wing option, would Goodwin want to play a more expansive game style now?

They showed a clip on Fox last night of how we were pushing Salem up to the stoppages in the first half to increase the chances of winning clearance. In the second half, Salem was sitting behind the play as a loose player. Kossie tagged Rich in the regular season.

Smith allowed Lever to play the way he did in the second half. Not sure he is definitely best 22 but judging his game on possessions and rebounds is not seeing the whole picture. We would get similar results out of any two of Smith, Hunt, Bowey and Pig.

I feel strangely confident about tonight but the key is no injuries.

Looking at Andrew's highlights he is still a few years off AFL. He is not a great kick and needs to add 10-15kg of muscle. It will be interesting to see where he lands. I love the athleticism and the similarities with Aliir Aliir are obvious. Still not convinced a club will be brave enough to take him inside the top 20.

Our cap will be similar.

Parker would be an amazing get, but I am not sure he would come cheaply and we have salary cap pressure. Also, why would he leave the Swans?