Fat Tony

Moonshadow, on 30 Sept 2014 - 11:47 AM, said: Yep, if Garlo comes up for FA next year, we'd be crazy not to shop him around now. It fits the Roos FA principle. I wouldn't trade Galand. Garland was excellent in 2013 and had an ordinary preseason this year. So we would be trading him at a trough in his value. And we will still get reasonable compensation for Garland next year anyway if he leaves as a RFA. Personally I would like to see us go with a more skillful backline in 2015. I also think both Garland and Dunn are better when they are played on key forwards. So IMO we should trade McDonald for a midfielder (Greenwood/Toby Green) and run with a back six of Dunn, Garland, Howe, Lumumba, Vince and Jetta.

I am a bit circumspect on the Merrett idea. Reasoning: I would rather focus resources on the midfield. I don't think Merrett is athletic enough. And the game is going towards more athletic mid size defenders rather than guerilla tamers. Sydney made the grand final with Richards, Grundy and Rampe as tall defenders. Hawthorn used Lake, Gibson, Hodge, Birchall and Stratton. He is nearly 30. I don't think a forward line of Merrett and Dawes would work. Hogan will have a massive impact as a key forward. We may draft McCartin.

Blicavs is the player I would be going for. He is a lot like Jimmy Stynes, but will only be really valuable if played in the ruck. (And yes I watched the North final where he was killed by Goldstein but I think he will improve.) I would offer up Clark and a downgrade in our second rounder. Or Blicavs and Varcoe/Walker for Clark and #23.

No way. Decent player but pick 3 to pick 16 is a massive downgrade.

Would be a great get for our second rounder (if we can trade it).

Very different circumstances. Clark had to be traded. Dangerfield has the leverage of being a Restricted Free Agent and can walk to his club of choice if Adelaide don't match the contract.

I wouldn't trade both #2 and #3 for Dangerfield unless we got something significant back in return. Reasoning: High draft picks have significant optionality value. You cannot value a draft pick by just by taking the median player at that pick. Although the hit rate is low, many of the best players in the competition were very high picks (Buddy, Roughead, Hodge, Pendlebury, Judd, Pavlich, Riewoldt etc). These are players that those clubs built a side around and then helped attract players to the club. Our 'premiership window' needs to be seen as five years from now and Dangerfield will be 29 then. (This is not saying I wouldn't go for him at all, but it needs to be considered.) We could potentially get Dangerfield as a free agent next year. (In fact, we should become a more appealing prospect for him then because he would get to play alongside Brayshaw and McCartin.) Adelaide will deal Dangerfield for slightly less than is worth (i.e. #3 and Toumpas) if they think he is leaving next year. They won't entertain a trade if they think he will stay. 2 Tyson type deals gives more bang for our buck than a single Dangerfield deal. Just because our previous recruiting teams produced poor results doesn't mean Taylor & co. will luck out.

I actually think he needs to get bigger so he can play as a genuine inside mid. Slimming down will cost him in the contest and he isn't quick enough to play as an outside player.

Interestingly (or not), the AFL decision on the PP last year came out at 4pm on Brownlow day. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-09-23/no-priority-pick-for-demons

It might not be easy to get to Geelong (or Hawthorn or Collingwood) as a RFA as the contract would need to be huge to dissuade Adelaide from matching it.

Adelaide cannot force Dangerfield to Melbourne. He could just stay with Adelaide for next year and then leave as a FA. They don't have the cards.

Toumpas would be worth around #15-20 IMO and I would not be pushing him out the door. I still think he can develop into an AFL footballer. But the fact that Adelaide seem to be entertaining the idea of a trade reflects the poor compensation they would get if he walks next year. I cannot see any other Victorian club (other than maybe St Kilda) trumping #3 plus Toumpas and perhaps a swap of second rounders. Adelaide have two real options: 1) trade Dangerfield for slight unders this year (i.e. a trade like #3 and Toumpas); or 2) try to sign him in the next year or lose him in FA for ~#10. Adelaide will probably look to do a trade if they think he is going anyway. The real issue Melbourne will have is not convincing Adelaide, it's convincing Dangerfield.

I see the Ablett deal as a huge win for GC, but it needs to be remembered that they didn't give up anything for him other than salary cap space.

It looks like the AFL may want to wait and see what happens with Clark and Frawley before making a call.

While most Demonlanders are willing to give Toumpas more time to make it as an AFL player, he isn't worth pick 4 anymore. He hasn't shown enough at AFL level to suggest he will develop into anything but a good/average mid-paced receiver with good foot skills. And he is from SA and picks 2/3 will be Victorians, which have the advantage of less flight risk.

#3, Toumpas and ~#22 for Dangerfield and #~32 would be the most I would offer. And Adelaide would be a good chance to accept it given they are likely to lose him for ~#10 next year. I hope we keep #2 for Angus Brayshaw.

It doesn't make a difference. He has agree to any trade and he knows he is a restricted free agent next year. He wont shift to Melbourne if he doesn't want to. I see him as more likely to come next year. We are a chance to pick up free agents if we draft well and look to be on the rise, because we can outbid any club.

Paul Conners said so at a lunch on Friday.

I don't know E25. He is a Restricted FA so his preferred destinations (ie Cats, Hawks, Pies) will have to outbid the Crows and I don't know if they will have the cap space. Buddy is the only example where a FA left and the departing club got clear unders in terms of draft picks. And that took him taking a 9 year deal to a club with an inflated salary cap.

Dangerfield had committed to The Footy Show before Sanderson was sacked and didn't really want to go on, but he also felt pulling out was a worse look. I would still ideally like to pick him up for nothing next year and keep our picks.

But St Kilda will take him.

Yes Brandon Jack is contracted for next year.

Sorry it was Buntine http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/116424/Matt-BUNTINE

Buntine took Dawes to the cleaners.

Ryder should be our number one target given our salary cap position and his reduced cost in any trade. It sounds like he wants to go interstate, but players have changed their mind on that before. And we can offer something that Brisbane and GWS cannot - the number one ruck role. The risk of lengthy bans is overstated IMO.