old55

I switched off when Watson left. Maher and Gaze - FMD. Fran Kelly on 621 all the way for me! I'm working in the day time sessions and don't think I'm missing a thing. Allen should stick to golf only - he's authoritative on that and useless on the rest. Ox was a great footballer. Fine is amusing in small doses.

Pro Dee likes this

We had a lot of list turnover in recent years but all indications are it's likely to continue. 2016 is a big year for .. Jack Watts: OOC Free Agent, likely to be UFA? Chris Dawes: Last year of an expensive contract? Heritier Lumumba: Didn't deliver value, contract may provide protection Jack Trengove: It will be some sort of miracle if he gets back Ben Newton: There's a lot of competition for spots now Cam Pedersen: A one year contract Viv Michie: See Ben Newton Jay Kennedy-Harris: See Ben Newton Jayden Hunt: This year it's time to show something Jack Grimes: See Jack watts Jake Spencer: Back up ruckman is a precarious role James Harmes: See Cam Pedersen Matt Jones: See Ben Newton Dean Terlich: Only saved this year by his contract Max King: Must continue to improve That's 15 players realistically in the gun.

Gee if that happened the we might even be forced to trade him for a first rounder! The horror!

We must think he has the potential to develop into a real ruckman and not just an emergency back-up. We can still take a mature rookie for that purpose.

Think we still need a mature ruck back-up.

AFLLive miss our pick completely! FMD incompetence

AFL draft tracker showing Adelaide time. Took me a while to figure that out ... Starts 6:30 Adelaide. 7 Melbourne

If each player is equally likely to be picked at the next 3 picks before ours then I make the minimum probability: 0.80 x 0.75 x 0.67 = 0.40 that we'd get our guy at pick 7 (each of those probabilities are the probability of not picking our guy from that set at that pick) The probability is actually better than that because Essendon and Gold Coast may select any other player, not just from that set, at their picks

Jack Darling thread

Yes, they showed 6 players on the night? There's 15 possible combinations of 2 players from 6.choices (30 ways they can be picked taking order into account). Exciting times!

Thanks for the write-up Jack. I think Aaron Francis is the forgotten man because of his "type". I don't think we can count him out of our calculations.

I'll be very surprised if we bid on GWS players after trading 10 for 7. Nothing would have been said at the time, but if we do bid on them a deal like that will not be available to us in future. Another important factor though is recruiter credibilty. Taylor will want to select who he thinks is best player, bid on Heeney, probably bid on Mills.

Does he surf left handed?

Snoop Dog Phantom published yesterday: Snoop Dog 2015 Phantom National and Rookie Draft Lot's of detail, interesting picks for us.

You (and others) have asserted that Essendon are guaranteed to take a mid, regardless of whether they rate another player better. Let's see if they do. Unfortunately my theory can't be tested one way or another, but your's can. If they do take a mid, either of us may be right. If they don't you are clearly wrong. BTW, Francis is not a mid.

Recruiters list the draftees in order, regardless of type, and pick in that order, especially with early picks. It's not easy but it's what they're paid to do. Later in the draft, pick for needs may happen. For the record I have never said Essendon won't pick a midfielder at 4 or 5, I've said they'll pick who they believe to be the best 2 players available, regardless of type. I see you are struggling to understand this concept.

I never said exponentially better and they don't need to be - just rated better. If Essendon rate a KPF higher than a mid at 5 they'll take him, even if they've taken a KPF at 4 - you'd be stupid not to.

Parish on balalaika!

So at pick 5 you'd pass on a KPF that you believe is a superior player to take an inferior mid because you needs mids? Wowee-wee-wow!

I think it's very likely that Essendon and MFC will take whoever is believed to be the best player at each pick regardless of type. For example if Essendon believe Curnow and Weideman are the 2 next best players they'll take them believing they'll end up with 2 great new KPFs - pretty good problem to have.

Definitely agreed. And as I have posted before - I don't think Roos should have input, coach input should come from Goodwin now.

I know it's 20:20 hindsight but if BP had managed a 60% hit rate on those picks, which is just par, we'd be in stronger position today. Realistic alternatives at our picks: 2008: Blease, Shuey 2009: Talia, Tapscott 2010: Brodie Smith But then again everything would be different and we may not have Hogan and Brayshaw.

We'll be thankful that we got so absolutely hopeless that the AFL was forced to put us in Administration.

BP didnt pick Maric, CAC did. But 5 out of 5 misses between 10 and 20 over 3 years did really hurt us. I cant really fault his early picks, I think Watts, Scully and Trengove were generally well regarded by everyone at the time. He had a decent hit rate late with Gawn, Howe, TMac, Jetta.