Engorged Onion

Brilliant stuff @WheeloRatings ❤️💙 - can you confirm what WPF is an acronym for... For those correlating % to Collingwoods finals aspirations here is a nice little image. Expected wins 55% of 20 matches - currently on 75% of matches won, thus a +4.1 games won differential. With the notion that the team will regress back to the mean/average - somewhere somehow, their winning run should come to a dead stop. 😎

Perhaps a bit more detail in the topic title might include something about 'media reports'. Just because it's not in the media, it doesn't mean conversations aren't occurring.

I’ve tried doing one myself. I know nothing about maths at this level, but I can’t work out what the ‘exponent’ should be for AFL specifically. There are calculators online for baseball and basketball. If someone could work out/find the ‘exponent’ I can plug it all in.

Could of sworn we’ve been out of finals contention for about 6 weeks 🤓😏

If you take the lens that the AFL is an entertainment package 24 hours 7 days a week... then, this is how they all get paid 😎

Could you summarise?

I love stats, and sometimes I completely misinterpret them... in interpreting the image on the screen, have I mucked this up? CP = 124 @ 14% =17.36 at AFL Average 19% = 23.56 = that's -6 marks difference over 20 games... CO = 94 @ 13% =12.22 at AFL Average = 17.86 = that's -5.5 marks over 20 games... MG = 59 @ 12% =7.08 at AFL Average = 11.21 = that's -4 marks over 20 games... CS = 56 @ 46% =25.76 at AFL Average = 10.64 = that's +15 marks over 20 games... (in the positive) TS= 54 @ 7% =3.78 at AFL Average = 10.26 = that's -6.5 marks over 20 games... JJ= 53 @ 15% =7.95 at AFL Average = 10.07 = that's -2 marks over 20 games... EL= 50 @ 18% =9 at AFL Average = 9.5 = that's -5. marks over 20 games... Total amount of marks difference negativeve and Spargo's postitive of a 20 game stretch behind AFL average, is 14 marks over a 20 game stretch.. less than .75 of a mark a match.

If his name was, ANB, Bedford, Trengrove [inset middle of road player from any club] etc, he'd be getting an increase due to 'daring' to challenge... Is that even a rule anymore?

Get on this... http://www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/2014/2/16/pythagorean-expectation-for-vflafl-and-the-nrl and pre-season 2022 interpretation

Brilliant stuff @Demonstone. EO is reluctantly talking about himself in 3rd person, feeling sad that EO didn't get a placing, and posting about feelings...

Yes they have a sports psych. Through the AFLPA, athletes can also access psychs from a welfare perspective, and these psychs often ALSO have experience in the context of sport. My two cents... 'Mental attitude' is about your willingness to experience a range of discomforts, (thoughts, feelings, physical sensations) in the service of what matters (values). Let's assume that each athlete can execute a particular task, really really well in training. What shifts, on game day, is their relationship to their internal experiences. Thus, their attention moves away from task, and goes to trying to fix discomfort (anxiety/frustration/fatigue) at the expense of replicating the same behaviours under stress. For example, this looks like a biomechanical alteration ('technique!') when kicking for goal. The compassionate question to ask is even with honing skills around minfudlness and willingness to experience discomfort to remain on task in stressful contexts... how realistic is it to ask players to do it for 22 weeks straight, in each and every moment of every match, particularly when they are coming up against other humans experiencing the same things...

😂 another thread getting a bit meta…

Loving this conversation @IRW. I’ve stopped just half way through a 20km run which has given me time to think… glad you posted that statement as I was pondering a question. It’s neat that we as supporters believe that we can beat anyone on any given day. So what if the FD and players themselves genuinely believe that to be true… If that is true for them, then I would infer that whether we finish inside the top 4 or outside the top 4 is irrelevant. Sure, the second chance is a nice safety net, but if they believe that their loading program gets the team cherry ripe for 3 weeks when it counts, than the optics of our form from rounds 18-22 doesn’t matter. Sure they’d prefer to win, but if they genuinely believe that our best is THE best - then each game can be a knock out in the finals, then ‘form now’ doesn’t matter. It’s the trade off of form line vs being cherry ripe when it counts.

That's an interesting take, I genuinely come from the opposing view that even if the other top 10 sides have been doing it (and a differing levels of intensity, due to where they thought theyd be, the age profile of their list etc) - it explains fluctuations in form significantly. Here are the win loss records of the top 8 over the last 5 matches, I could stretch it to 2 months, but not sure where to find it (can't be arsed googling a nice graphic) Where we may differ, is our views on Geelong playing at Kardinia Park and how much that advantage is to them. Simply, every team is sketchy as [censored]. 🙂 Geelong are not due to home ground advantage. Collingwood are not due to minimal loading. Sydney are less so due to home ground advantage. (loss against Essendon, win against Freo IN freo - Freo increase training loads??? is a hypothesis, and probably accurate) I'll write some more later :)

Thanks for the input there @IRW . For clarifications sake - you don't load continuously for 10 rounds, the process is far more nuanced than that. What happens, is that there is significant increase in volume - let's say rounds 11-13, plateau for 2 weeks, increase from THAT new baseline and go for greater volume again, let's say 17-19 and plateau, and perhaps squeeze another step up in volume 3-4 weeks out from the post season. Hope that clarifies the process away from a notion of 'loading for 3 months straight'. I mean you're right though, if that was to happen, that'd just be hilariously incompetent by the Performance Manager. I'm a bit confused by your left field coaching moves comment - could you elaborate? ps: my authority, is having had part of my career working in these environments and having direct links to people who currently work in these environments - particularly in AFL circles. So I get to ask questions about whether things are done the way the used to be done (within a 5 year window) and what evolutions have occurred in the process.

I'm of the belief we can still win it. Here are some reasons... Body of work from rounds 1-10. Placement of playing teams in top 8 from Round 11-22, whilst increasing training volume and intensity from Rounds 11-20- gives an appearance (to some) that we cannot win against contending teams. In game injuries to key personnel to structure during loss to Freo, Sydney and Collingwood (QB clash). We're still 3 weeks away from week 1 of the finals (post season/real season). We're not tapering just yet. Two poor losses (under 2 goals mind you) for me are Western Bulldogs and Collingwood. Explanable to more accurate kicking for scores comparable to us - statistically significant differentials to AFL averages...however - agree that the method to force our players to shift away from the gamplan was very well done by those two teams and coaching staff. The last month we have kicked 89.25 points a match, so my belief is scoring/forward line isn't an issue as much as people are making out, due to a desire to have a traditional full forward style - perhaps referencing the Geelong setup. The spread of our scoring options - stacks up in finals. With two losses to teams that have kicked over 100 points within the last month, I'm unclear that it's a structural problem. 24 to 21 scoring shots vs Collingwood with an opponent accuracy of 71% for goals, and 25 to 23 scoring shots vs Bulldogs for an accuracy of 74%. That would comfortably be ahead of the AFL average, would I would suggest is mid to high 50's% - and happy to have that confirmed/corrected.

Just confirming - if any team has a loss(es) in Rounds 15-22 - they're not contenders? So just Collingwood and Geelong right?

We're just akin to Muhammad Ali doing rope-a-dope... *looking forward to this comment getting 🔥

I recall watching Angus for a bit a few times - once in the 3rd, when tackled, I think he handballed over the boundary line and correctly had it given as a free... I watched as the ball was kicked to a contest ahead of him, as he sprinted to support, the Collingwood player tracked him with a hand on him all the way (it was great play) and immediately tackled Brayshaw, when he received the ball.. I was more aware of that way of operating from the Pies, after that incident, on other occasions thereafter. It's good strategy, but feels as though it 'anti-football' as in choosing to not go for the ball.. But essentially I guess that was McCrae and co, strangling one of our strengths which is the post clearance/post contest possession. Hence why (in some sense) clearances in of themselves are meaningless. Our midfield strength was curtailed, not at the coalface , but by the immediate possession after. But those [censored] did kick a bit too accurately....

Any demonlanders in the J Ryder room?

Aside from the coin, It’s good exposure to the scrutiny and adversarial conditions that’ll come in Sept 👌

I’ve made it from the farm… and it’s dry! And, Viney is built for these conditions and these contexts. Expecting a continuation of his ripping form.

It's hammering down here on the coast to the west of Geelong. About to ease into Friday night and catch PT up to the big smoke.

Beers? Pills?

But this is just a snap shot in time. Just like we could have said the same about the Dees in 2017 - 'And look at the Dees now' - yet 5 years further on - we still made the same decision re: James, 'And look at the Dees now'. I guess what I am saying, is the decision to end Boomers career, has no baring on the future of North, just like James McDonalds' had no baring on where we are, and similarly where Freo will be.