titan_uranus

I would love to look at the number of scoring shots compared to previous higher scoring years. Are there fewer shots on goal, or is goal accuracy down? I'm sure it's a bit of both: the skill of kicking set shots for goal has deteriorated in recent years.

I'm all for us being interested in Saad but he's worth more than a second round pick, so something's got to give there.

All we know is this. If we beat Essendon, the Dogs will win. If we lose to Essendon, the Dogs will lose.

Fair enough. Is Lockhart going to be delisted? Can't get a game, can't even get a spot in the emergencies, was beaten to the small defender spot by Jetta who, though we all love him, was not in form when selected, got dropped out of nowhere.

Bills, Chiefs, 49ers (Although I don't have huge faith in my 49ers, thought we were reasonably disappointing vs Arizona this week).

This is fair. Putting close games to one side, we went 0-5 against the top 5. Our competitors for finals spots got over the line at least once in their attempts to beat the top 5 (Collingwood beat Geelong and drew with Richmond, St Kilda beat Richmond and Port, the Dogs beat West Coast, GWS beat Geelong and Richmond). Our competitors also have losses to "weaker" sides (Collingwood lost to Fremantle and Essendon, St Kilda lost to Fremantle and North, the Dogs lost to Carlton, GWS lost to Adelaide, North and Sydney). So we're not alone in dropping those two Sydney/Fremantle games. IMO, as frustrating as the Sydney/Fremantle losses were (Sydney in particular, given they're a bottom 4 side), it's the fact we didn't win even one of our five games against the top five that has us in this mess as much as anything else.

I know what you're getting at but there are plenty of fringe players who are premiership players. Shai Bolton last year, Daniel Venables the year before, Jacob Townsend the year before that are three examples. Mitch Morton and Steven Armstrong are classic examples.

We beat Hawthorn by 43 and Collingwood by 56. Those aren't the issues when it comes to our percentage. I'd instead be looking at losing to Sydney by 21, Fremantle by 14, or Port Adelaide by 51. Even giving half a yelp in any of those games would have reduced the margins and stopped the bleeding of our percentage.

Talent-wise, he'd be ideal for us. But you have to question why he keeps getting dropped by a side that hasn't had a great deal going for it in the forward half.

A hard no from me. Over-rated (or getting rated on his prior Port form rather than his Hawthorn form).

So it's down to three. Next stop on the MFC rollercoaster: the Gabba, Friday night, 7.50pm.

Well that was disappointing. But not nearly as disappointing as us losing to Sydney. Complain all you want about Holman, Harbrow, Swallow, Cox or the umpires, but it all shouldn't matter.

If we had won just one of the two Cairns games, we would currently be sitting 7th (to drop to 8th if Collingwood wins tonight). The scenario for this weekend would be that a win would guarantee us finals, whilst a loss would then trigger the current scenarios we're looking for this week to make finals with a win. If we had won both Cairns games we'd be locked into finals right now. We'd be 6th (and would stay there even with a Collingwood win). A win would lock us into 6th (unless we somehow made up 10% on West Coast) and a "home" final vs St Kilda, the Dogs or Collingwood. A loss would see us fall to 7th or 8th at worst. Read it and weep.

Here's my most recent favourite:

If we make it at their expense, we'll have ended the year with the same number of wins and a higher percentage. Our losses may stick out like a sore thumb to us, but evidently if they miss out we'll have had the better year overall.

High horse? Not sure of the relevance of that one. You're having a crack at Goodwin based on quotes from a press conference you didn't watch. And your criticisms are pretty ill-founded. You're upset at him saying we need to play consistently each week and that we're a work in progress. Both of which are correct. We all agree that it's not good enough that we're a work in progress as at Round 17 2020, but better he admit it than suggest otherwise.

He can't play defence. When he was back there it was too much galloping and bombing with no plan. He's not a great kick and not a great one-on-one defender. He's got what it takes to be a decent small forward but he struggles to keep himself involved for four quarters. He's a good lead, a good mark, a good set shot, and last night showed a decent crumber. But he doesn't seem to be in the right spots enough and so goes missing for long periods. The fact he's getting games right now when others aren't is a good sign for him, but I'm not confident of his long-term future with the club.

I'm not sure what will be worse. I think the former - missing out for the second time in four years by a tiny percentage. Will make us go back to the close losses (Brisbane, Geelong) and the moments within games (letting Carlton back in from 42 points up, conceding a goal in the last second of the Fremantle loss, Tomlinson's miss vs Geelong, Bennell's miss vs Brisbane, Hannan failing to see Viney on his own in the final minutes of the Brisbane loss...etc...). Maybe not though. Maybe losing to Essendon and then watching Fremantle belt the Dogs would be worse. Not sure. But I'm mentally prepared for both.

So as it stands, to make it we need to beat Essendon and then: the Dogs lose to Fremantle; or Collingwood loses to both Gold Coast and Port; or St Kilda loses to GWS and we bridge the current percentage gap - which is, on my maths, around a 50-point swing (i.e. we win by 25, they lose by 25). Two of these options could be off the table by the time we play - Collingwood plays tomorrow night and St Kilda v GWS is Friday night. But, even if those results go against us, we will be playing on Saturday with a spot in the 8 up for grabs, as a win will at least temporarily put us back above the Dogs. They failed to catch our percentage today so provided we beat Essendon, they'll have to then beat Fremantle to get back above us. If Collingwood loses tomorrow night, then we'll also be waiting until next Monday night to see if Collingwood also loses to Port. The least stressful way home for us at this point is for St Kilda to lose on Friday and we win by enough to bridge the percentage gap on Saturday. We'll be locked in if that happens no matter what.

This is really terrible analysis. There's plenty to criticise about Melbourne and Goodwin. This is a poor way of doing it.

Thankfully the second half didn't play out like the first. A win and a Dogs loss next week and we play finals. The Dogs have been good against bottom 10 sides all year so the odds are against us, but I see a Dogs loss to Fremantle as more likely than Collingwood losing both games. MFCSS says we miss out on percentage to St Kilda.

Yep I'll give this a go - every year I try to do this but forget to enter my tips and disappear halfway through the season. I'll try harder this year! I'll go Seahawks, Eagles and Colts.

Dogs' percentage currently sitting at 103.4%, so it's already up 3.1%. If Hawthorn doesn't show up at some point and at least stem the bleeding, we may not have a choice but to either belt Essendon or to rely on the St Kilda or Collingwood pathways.

Fremantle is a markedly better side than Hawthorn though. But yes, it's not likely. We are hoping for unlikely results because we failed to do the job ourselves. Yes, the Dogs can do damage percentage-wise today but overall will need to factor in any damage we can do vs Essendon combined with the Dogs' loss to Fremantle.

The Dogs will catch our percentage with a roughly 50 point win, I believe (they're currently +15, we're currently +62). Depends on how much they score/concede but that's roughly the difference. If they pass us on percentage then they could still lose to Fremantle and hold their spot over us if we win. It's going to be tight if they belt Hawthorn. The only percentage-irrelevant scenario is Collingwood losing both games.