ArtificialWisdom

I think Jetta's technique should be the one all players addopt. Its the same as Selwoods he gets low and attempts to shrug the tackle, as far as im conserned this is good smart play. He does it in a way that either allows him to get a free kick or get away. Viney does it too but he ducks his head a little so doesnt get many frees as a result, needs to keep his head up and his count will jump up. The problem I have with Mathieson, Christensen, Mclean and co is that they dont attempt to shrug the tackle. They just grip the ball tight with 1 arm and use the other to drag the tackler's arm up onto their head. I think that arm wrap action should be treated as prior oppertunity because they could be using that arm to dispose of the ball rather than trying to get a free kick.

The players have been out the back every week and if you look at our forward line we get jeffy in particular out the back alot too. We just need to take advantage of the numbers, whenever we bring the required pressure we are in the game. We have brought it 7 times for 5 wins and 2 losses (against north and dogs, both top 4)

Out: Viney (inj), Garland (inj), Kennedy, O. McDonald, ANB In: Oliver, Michie, Dawes, Frost/Dunn, Trengove/Grimes FB: Jetta McDonald Wagner HB: Vince Frost/Dunn Michie C: Harmes Oliver Stretch HF: Petracca Dawes Watts FF: Garlett Hogan Kent Foll: Gawn Jones Tyson Int: Bugg, Hunt, Newton, Trengove/Grimes Thoughts: OMac may stay in with Garland out (I dont agree but wouldn't be surprised) Frost is more likely a part of the future than Dunn but he may not be ready for a recall. Dawes for Kennedy for forward height. Kent very lucky Watts to continue Rucking, essentially provides extra midfielder Dawes would just be wasting energy, going to lose most of those hitouts either way. ANB is a ball winner and may be given an extended run at it with Viney out Trengrove over Grimes but he may not be ready given the Casey bye at awkward time Finally 5 changes is alot... you rarely succeed with large number of changes so idk what to expect

Ok fair point, how about this then. Vs Essendon: Thomas, Gibbs, Curnow, Murphy, Simpson, Byrne, Kerridge 997, 143, 8 Vs Fremantle: Cripps, Kerridge, Murphy, Simpson, Curnow, Thomas 824, 137, 32 Are they even enough comparisons for you? Interesting how those are even higher averages! If you would like we can look at it again assuming they beat Brissy this week.

I will go to this weeks game the same as i went to the Doggies game. I have no expectations for them to win, i just want to see them compete and show something. Roos summed that game up perfectly "we made them earn it" and thats all i want to see this week, and every week we lose to a better side i want to say "at least they earnt it". So far only 3 times out of 10 I have been let down, compared to the past I think thats a big step

I cant get over how nobody else sees this. Look at each of these teams best on the weekend Carlton: Gibbs, Docherty, Armfield. Curnow (Ed), Rowe, Cripps Total games: 576 Avg: 96 lowest: 32 St Kilda: Steven, Armitage, Reiwoldt, Fisher, Geary 923, 185, 122 Bulldogs: Wood, Dahlhaus, Liberatore, Macrae, Hunter, Suckling 505, 84, 46 Power: Wingard, Gray (R), Ebert, Dixon, Westhoff, Boak 872, 145, 75 Our best from win the week before: Melbourne: Hogan, Bugg, Stretch, Petracca, Garlett, Oliver, Watts 395, 56, 5 (4 played less games than all listed above) They might be having faster "rebuilds" but they are lead by seasoned stars, we are lead by children

My thoughts exactly we have played 10 games 3 shockers, 1 average loss, 1 honourable (horrible word but it's true) loss and 5 wins... I while i doubt we will win i think we can put up a real fight against the hawks Hell this time 2 years ago we were playing 7 or 8 shockers by round 10

Oh my bad, I missed that one.

While I get the point your making, I don't think it is that black and white. I stress that I was not at all happy with our performance against Port, however looking at where we are compared to recent history... I don't think we should ever be satisfied but surely we have done all right so far this year.

I think this would be right, although i think i could easily swap Newton and Kennedy. Either way i would think those are the right changes. They might try squeeze Trenners in somewhere too. I dont expect there would be 5 changes though.

I like this, I would give Tyson and Bugg 1 each but other than that i agree, TMac, Trenners, Vanders, Newton, Frost are the only 0s I see there that havent already reached or gone past their ceiling Garlett might be able to get better but im not sure he will (he is pretty good as is just needs consistant performances)

could be 7-5 with St Kilda the week after.... Giants then Collingwood they could easily be 8-6

Yeah this is true. Maybe 1 or 2 further back, but being high causes so many more turnovers. being back just allows us to kill contests making it difficult to rebound quickly and effectivly. Like Roos said there is a balance and we are tilted to hard to attack and are stumbling because of it. I just dont want them to fall back too much, otherwise suddenly the goals will dry up.

Scoring Shots Differential: Rd 1: -8 W Rd 2: -8 L Rd 3: 0 L Rd 4: 0 W Rd 5: +3 W Rd 6: -14 L Rd 7: 23 W Rd 8: -7 L Rd 9: 13 W Rd 10: -5 L It is wildly inconsistant since round 5 and it has been cut through against better teams. But interestingly our last 2 losses have been our 2 lowest deficits... That was against 2 of the best 3 teams we have played. St Kilda was an absoloute disaster. But the weekend was only a blowout because we dsidnt take our own chances, we had them, plenty of them. If we bring enough pressure I think we will find the diamond is more effective than it was on the weekend. Round 8 is the only game that i think we brought the right amount of pressue for 4 qtrs and didnt get the desired differential. That was against the Dogs who are looking to be no pretender. All other failures were a result of poor upfield pressure. Bring the pressure, make them earn it and win, lose or draw i will be content this weekend no matter how hawks score their goals.

Rd 18 Collingwood vs North Melbourne At Etihad Doesnt make it any less crap though! Victorian teams all have to deal with this home game at another ground crap. Except 3: Hawthorn, North and Bulldogs. The first 2 I would assume due to their 3 games in tassie. Bulldogs because.... well idk there is no excuse, "luck of the draw" Richmond, Collingwood and Melbourne all play a home game at Etihad. Essendon and St Kilda both play play home games at the MCG. Carlton 6 at the 'G and 5 at Etihad bacause apparently they have no home. Geelong dont really count, they are all over the place depending on crowd sizes.

I think those 3 in this week would be the seniority we need, 1 more in each part of the ground. Trenners might be, but the other 2 are definitely not part of the long term future, but they could and probably should be used now. Bring in Grimes if Viney gets rubbed out but there is no sense in dropping all the kids just because their kids. They need exposure just with a few more senior blokes around to protect them. TMac, Dunn, Jetta, Jones, Vince, Gawn, Trenners, Viney/Grimes, Dawes, Watts, Garlett. 11 Seasoned players in a team of 22, gives us plenty of room for youngsters but also gives us the experience we lacked so much.

Damn right he does but the MRP only care if you cause damage and since Ebert was grinning afterwards from the silly little love taps I would assume its insufficient.

Insufficient force surely! Deserves a fine msybe but if he goes that would be the softest week you could get

Ok so I have left it a while to try and reflect with a little less emotion... So here's my take away from the weekend, what I think was a reflection on our year so far: We are a step off the pace, we all know it, but when we win we would like to think otherwise. I'm guilty of being swept up in all the excitement of easybeat successes, but I have also tried to keep a level headed look at where we are at. We were never ever, ever going to play finals, this is a fact I have tried to keep in my head they whole time. Although even now I have a thought "well if we can just beat 2 big teams and Adelaide loses 1 or 2 maybe we can kind of just make it" But then I think about Saturday and reality sets in. It all seems like doom and gloom after that lost but I dont think it is that bad. We are 5-5 after 10 weeks... And although we had our chances to win more games North and Essendon in particular, 5-5 is about where I always thought we would be. 50% wins is the definition of inconsistant and I guess we should have all seen that coming. We have built a list that is young excitable and capable of beating anyone on its day. But thats the thing, we can only seem to win on our day. On Saturday we played in patches as we have all year. Most games we have taken our chances whenever we have had them. We lead the competition in scoring accuracy and Saturday was the first time we were below 50% infront of goal. Up to that point we were the only side yet to dish up a sub 50 porformance. It was always coming, it sucks that it was Saturday but nobody is that accurate that forever. Our ability to kick straight has helped keep us in games. Round 1 it basicly secured us an unlikely win. Unfortunatly we were unable to capatalise on our chances Saturday and it cost is dearly. -5 scoreing shots and 45 point loss, thats simply not good enough. The Diamond Defence... Certainly has its critics right now, and for good reason it can look damn ugly when it goes wrong. That being said I think abandoning it right now is dangerous. The point of the diamond is simple. If we can draw even on the scoring shots, we can back ourselves to kick a winning score (we are 4-1 when we draw even). So while it has been frustrating, over the course of 10 weeks we are -3 in scoring shots. That means every game we average giving 0.3 scoring shots more to the opposition... that isnt that bad for a middle tier team!! Yes, when we have been exposed we have conceded quickly and heavily but I dont think the scores we have gotten as a result have been credited enough. All we need to do is recapture our ability to shut the game down. That is the only piece of the game plan that we are missing! If, in the second half of the year, we can learn how to shut a game down while still in the diamond structure we will have achieved everything Roos set out to do nearly 3 years ago. We lacked leaders on Saturday. Some long overdue selection might help with that, we will have to see. We needed cool heads to prevent the panic that sunk in when Port got a run on. Whenever a team kicks 2/3 goals on the trot we need to flick the defencive switch and shut it down! We showed we could do it last year, so I have faith that given time they will learn to do it again. This structure makes it hard and its very aggressive but fortune favours the brave. We have been too late to the party every time there is a new gameplan. Copying Geelong in 2010, then copying Collingwood in 2012 then copying Sydney in 2014. 3 years, 2 years and 2 years late respectivly. Now we have decided rather than being like everyone else and copy Hawthorn to the letter, we will go our way with our list and good on 'em! If we copy hawthorn now then by the time we get it right the game will have changed again. The fact is we are 10 games into a new gameplan with a 50% success rate. Its been ugly at times but beautiful at others. We are nothing more than a confidence side right now. I think thats all we need to be this year. We need to get that bully tag, it is a tag I have dreamt of for years. I know it has negative conatations but it is a stepping stone to success. 3 stages to a flag, Beat those below, Beat those around and beat those above. We are barely secure at stage one and people are talking finals, we need to secure that spot then we can talk about how we can pinch a couple of wins and play finals. The next few games are big, but we need to be understanding. We all penciled this week in as a loss, and no matter what happens we need to remember that. Hawthorn should pants us, even based on our best form they are too good. All I want to see is effort and structure. We could lose 3 of the next 4 and still have a positive month such is the run we face. Forget finals dreams, forget being the fairy tale story of 2016 thats not us. Look for glimpses, look for effort, look for structure. It's where we are, like it or not. Keep scoring, give ourselves excitement and give ourselves a chance. But dont expect instant success otherwise you're probably not gonna deal well with whats coming. It's god awful frustrating and I wish we could get it faster but I still have faith, the path feels right, and the tunnel is getting brighter. Saturday was ugly, but it does not mean we are going nowhere. It just means we arn't there yet. A reality I think we all know, when we take an objective look. When it all comes down to it. Can we be disapointed about the weekend? Hell yes! Is it right to be dissapointed by the year so far? I'm not so sure. Holy [censored] I wrote alot more than I planned. If you actully read it all my hat goes off to you.

If Trenners doesnt play this week or next then im going to start thinking they dont want him to play... He was dropped before his injury and I'm not sure they are convinced he is going to ever be they player they wanted him to be. If he wasnt injured for so long then the media would be treating him like Grimes "a past player on the outer that will be looking for other opportunities at years end". Instead they are looking for a feel good story, unfortunately the story rarely ends as such a fairy tale. The longer he takes to get in the side the less I can see him having a huge impact...

For the forwards/mids? Yes I think the defenders are copping blame for the problems up forward. Yes sometimes, but that depends on the player and how they seem feel on the day players like Harmes, Kennedy and Kent are becoming scarily bad downhill skiers, when we play well they all play well and when we play poorly they are near useless. Given 99% of our defencive gameplan relies on pressure in the forward half it is a serious problem No i dont think so they have gotten it right a number of times but they just seem to panic a little when it starts to leak and the panic causes the flood gates to open. We need to have a couple of leaders to step up and shut the game down when we are under siege then reset. Right now we simply cant shut it down when we need to. Instead we need to wait for an opponent mistake to break the run of play.

Ins for Outs Frost OMac or Garland if injured Oliver ANB or Viney (susp) then ANB gets 1 more chance Dawes Kennedy Trengrove Newton FB: Wagner, Frost, Jetta HB: Bugg, T McDonald, Garland (or Omac) C: Stretch, Tyson, Vince HF: Kent ,Hogan, Watts FF: Petracca, Dawes, Garlett F: Gawn, Jones, Viney (or ANB) Interchange: Trengrove, Hunt, Oliver, Harmes Super lucky: Well alot of them really... but particularly Kent. We need his pace and don't really have a suitable replacement. May be in trouble when AVB is match fit Grimes could maybe come in for Viney but 4 changes seems about right to me. Dunn could also come if we want garland out regardless of injury but why replace 1 bloke who is past it with another who is past it?

Yes! I really dont want them going for an injury prone player... talent or not success comes from players who are repeatedly on the park not those in the rehab group.

5th round would be overs. I think Dawes is worth keeping as a backup. Has more value playing at Casey and supporting the development of the young forwards than what we could get in return. And he will always be there to fill a role if required

A daily listener? no I'm not, but I listen frequent-ish. I will admit occasionaly he says stuff i agree with and he is not dumb by any means but i find most of his opinions just a bit too outdated, for me. But part of the reason I listen to him is because I disagree. I like to know both sides. He sparks interesting conversation and topics. I just rarely side with him. This case? god I hope he's right!! Note on the rotations: Correlation does not equal Causation. (some other fun correlations: http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations) While it may be true there is no guarantee the rotations is the only or even the main reason for the improvements. Deliberate out of bounds I think has had a huge influence, players activly keeping it in. The protected area has made ball movement easier with so much more space. Not to mention every single club is trying to increase their ball movement speed which will increase scores as well.