Axis of Bob

Don’t worry @Timothy Reddan-A'Blew, I was never in it for the prizes. I was only ever here for telling media pundits where to shove it! 😁

A good point well made, RM. 😁

It’s less about which kicks are effective and more about which kicks each player takes (mostly based around where they take them from). A defender will either kick long to a contest in slow play or cop the ball short to an open player. Both are very easy kicks to make. A midfielder kicks often from stoppage, under pressure where kicks are often intercepted or don’t go far enough to be considered a long kick to a 50/50. Forward mostly kick to situations where the defenders far outnumber the forwards, so effective kicking is very difficult. For 2024, the top 10 players for disposal efficiency (10 game min) are all key defenders, except Luke Ryan who is a third defender. In fact the highest ranked non-defender is Karl Amon, who is ranked 51st. By comparison, the 21 lowest ranked players for disposal efficiency were forwards or rucks. Disposal efficiency doesn’t measure kicking skill, it just tells us the situations in which they are being asked to kick. Are we to believe that Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is the worst kick in the league whilst Ben McKay is the third best? Disposal efficiency is a truly terrible statistic for measuring the ability to kick.

Disposal efficiency is a truly terrible statistic for measuring kicking quality.

I looked at it and thought the same thing. A glass ceiling is a barrier to growth that can't be seen, indicating that O'Hehir has very limited in terms of potential growth. This is, of course, the complete opposite of what was intended.

Yep. Familiar to football supporters of every football club since about forever. Except Terry Wallace. The nuffies loved him.

Has signed with Casey for 2025 though.

It’s a trade that worked out well for both parties. They may have received more if they traded it on the night but that would have been taking unnecessary risks based on the hope that they got a marginally better deal. They achieved what they wanted (ie, Kako points, a future first plus throw ins) and didn’t have to take the risk into draft night. But contrast, Dodoro would have dragged it out and not been able to plan effectively for the draft because of the unknowns going into it, just in case they happened to get a slightly better deal in the night. It’s about winning wars, not battles.

Hotton also exists.

The difference is that Rivers was as slow as a wet week, whilst Tauru is very much not. This gives Tauru the versatility that Rivers never had because Rivers could be exposed defensively when he didn't have a good matchup. With Tauru you'd be investing in the athleticism and natural traits, and then letting him develop over time into whatever the best version of him there is. He appears to be a late developer so there will be a range of potential outcomes for him, even if his worst case is as a serviceable and versatile key defender.

@Demonstone Here's another one for you. I've seen this version of Tauru written so often that I thought Admiral Yamamoto and Commander Fuchida had started posting on Demonland.

Tauru doesn’t need to have a specific role already in mind when we pick him. As Chaser says, he’s so young and developing late with an awesome athletic profile. I think we would just get that talent in the door and see how he develops in a professional setting. I think he could become a good tall defender as a worst case scenario but he really could be anything with his skill set. Sort of like a turbo Weddle. I could see a version of reality where he becomes Goodes, one where he’s Curnow, one where he’s Caddy, one where he’s Allie, one where he’s Stewart …. and also one where he’s May. An athlete like that will always have a role somewhere, and they’re so hard to get.

If there’s one thing we’ve prioritised when we’ve had early picks it’s been power. Windsor, Tholstrup, Jackson, Koz, Oliver, Petracca, Brayshaw ….. trying to trade up for Humphrey and Reid. Every year people are flummoxed that we pick some power player that doesn’t have the heavy statistical output of some others. JT drafts AFL footballers, not junior footballers. Amateur observers will always overweight statistics when assessing players because they are subconsciously trying to pick the best players in the team, rather than thinking about the massive difference between junior footy and AFL footy and how those players will translate. Grabbing an awesome power athlete in Tauru, with size and a good mark, is absolutely true to form. Bo Allen is another stark example of selecting a power player who can play AFL, since his athletic profile and size makes him valuable no matter how he develops.

Then how do you ever get a decent key forward? Who are the key forwards that you can pick up with late or rookie picks? The top 7 in the Coleman this year were drafted with early picks or were father son picks. Key defenders are often available later on but it’s exceedingly rare that good key forwards are available with anything except early picks.

So when is the right time to draft a tall? If we always have to wait longer for a tall to develop, is there ever a good time to draft a tall? Or do we have to wait until we’re desperate? And then wait a few more years? We're not drafting for a player to win us a flag next year with the old group, we’re drafting for a player to help us win one with the older group. If we were drafting for now then we’d have just traded the pick.