fr_ap

It all hinges on Curnow. If a job can be done on him, I'd back our medium defenders over their medium/small forwards. Not convinced we will score a lot with Grundy in place of Petty as they're a very good defensive team

Good response - I will admit I'm not closely across St Kilda as I've never considered them a serious threat. Re. TDK - it's not that 2 rucks always go after Gawn, just that Carlton's are in form and it would make sense on their behalf to target Max physically, especially given we're going to be a (quality) tall forward short and therefore will rely on Max bailing us out in the air as we so often do. I share your principle concern on neutralising the air.

No - you don't get to do this to them and not us. Do you realise they're building the same narrative about us on their forum? It's standard fare for fans to fool themselves into confidence. "Collingwood had the flu, Brisbane [censored] the bed at their worst ground in the last 5 minutes, Adelaide had 5 out inc. Laird, Richmond pushed them all the way and the lowly Kangaroos completely outplayed them for a quarter. Petty is injured and Oliver will be rusty". Not hard is it? Sound familiar or are you incapable of looking in the mirror? They have copied our game plan and are trying to copy our DNA. Contest & Defence. Statistically, they're the best in the comp at it since round 10. That's objective. Ignore them at your peril. I feel good about how we've been tracking (or at least I did until Petty), but it's not inconceivable that they beat us at our own game on Saturday. I hope not as I have tickets, but if so there will be apparently be some very surprised folks on here.

Yes we will. I hope it's us but get sick of the back slapping in here that discredits their form or posters saying they're not worried. I think it will be a tougher game than KB.

And you are underestimating theirs. I wasn't aware that supporting one team meant I could be blindly ignorant of the other.

Have you not been watching? Removing Harry and SOS has made them far less predictable and they're getting scoring contributions across their midfield and small/mid sized forwards. We've also been conceding big scores. Petty would have kept Weitering occupied but that's out. We no longer have a matchup for him (he'll destroy Melk). Saints midfield included Steele and B Crouch amongst others, which compares favourably to our recent starting midfield of Sparrow and JJ. Viney a trump card, but no more than an equal of Steele who has come top 5 in the Brownlow 3 years running. Petracca in there tips us over the edge, but we don't have the luxury now we need him down forward. Oliver - who knows but I wouldnt take any bets on him playing. Even if he does, he hasn't played in 11 weeks and apparently hasn't been able to finish a training session. Carlton are the best defensive side in the comp since round 10 by a huge margin. Have the Coleman medal winner, the reigning Brownlow medal winner, 2 rucks to smash into Max and they play the same contested stuff we do, are on a huge hot streak culminating from a player-led honesty session at an off-site camp. They broke through the 2nd best defensive side (St Kilda) with almost their entire starting midfield out of action and scored relatively well against them through their contest work. It's us that will be worried about getting to 100.

Shattering news. Pretty hard to win a flag without a mature key forward that can take a grab, and more importantly, stop elite defenders taking a grab. Has been our problem since the end of 21 and will take some significant doing for us to win it from here. The poster who said the 23 flag hobbled off the ground in Hobart is odds on to be correct from here. Smith the best of the remaining options, and he has been injury prone his entire career as well. We may be calling on Schache out of pure need, or reverting to the problematic two ruck setup. Trac and Melk as the keys cannot work - against the best full backs and defences they just won't be able to compete in the air. Melk is good at it, but even on the weekend he had a number of marks taken on him by a larger key defender.

Agree with this, skiing is the best

Not sure its a little thing and not sure its underrated. It's literally what's held Schache and Weideman back. They don't have an innate understanding of body contact - they don't seek it out, don't understand the push & pull. You can't really develop it either. Hogan had it from day 1 and it allowed him to kick goals immediately on AFL quality defenders. It's the #1 thing I look for in a key forward from day dot, whether they're kicking goals or not. Brown, for all his foibles, actually does have some understanding - I think his mind gets it - but he doesn't have the physical strength or centre of gravity to use it effectively. It's why so many defenders make great forwards, because as a defender if you dont seek or understand body contact, you may as well play a different sport...

What? Schache is one of the softest key forwards I've ever seen. Contested marking at AFL level against the best defenders is not at all his forte. He's not bad in space, a good field kick and set shot - closest to Brown we have. But he will be as ineffective as Brown is at contesting kicks that aren't to advantage (which we do a lot) or bringing the ball to ground, which is what the FD like most from Petty (the goals have been a bonus - he brings others into the play via his contest). All of our remaining options are NQR unfortunately and its not dramatic to suggest Petty's injury could be the difference between a flag or not. Re. Grundy - I feel like I'm on an island with this - but my concern isn't his forward play, or his ruckwork, or even his marking. My concern is our play consistently falls apart when he is involved. He's a dissynergy player - goes backwards when he should go forwards, back into congestion when he shouldnt, and zigs when he should zag. He's unpredictable - like Frost was for so long. I think this is part of the problem with he and Gawn - they're not in sync about who is doing what around the ground which led to a number of defensive lapses against oppo ruckmen earlier in the year. Yes Gawn probably thrives solo in any case - but what you're really seeing is his exemplary game knowledge & reading of the play coming to the fore, with him having the freedom & autonomy to act on it without having to worrying about what Brodie is doing, or what Brodie has been told by someone else. Ultimately Grundy reduces our cohesion, which is so important at the pointy end, and his weeks out of the side now wouldn't have helped. I would not be surprised if he returns and our movement & scoring regains its stagnancy.

McRae's press conference was par for the course. He's always a little twitchy, it's just his way. You're all just looking for cracks way too hard. Pies players were laughing on the bench with 30 seconds to go. This won't hurt them - I'm in zero doubt they're loading, for no other reason than they can afford to. Top spot is theirs. They know they've beaten anyone on their day and can win from 5 goals down consistently. Sorry to burst the bubble, but they're absolutely primed and this loss is doing nothing other than enhancing their priming. Will be beyond surprised if they don't make the grand final.

Careful

Such a good coach Goofy!

In Tasmania they stuff a steak full of Oysters. Odd concept at the best of times, but the name is what really completes it Carpetbag

Agree with this entirely. Duursma has some slightly concerning traits for a player projected to become a top end mid. Not sure he has (or can develop) the physicality required - he's not a natural 'contact' player to me. At his height, he'll always be a bit of a tweener and coaches will be tempted to play him forward which will hamper his development. Think Nik Cox - all the talent in the world, but a little soft, and between body types means hes never developed as a wing, ruck or forward properly.

Real shame we play the last game at the SCG. Hard to win there, very different game profile to the MCG and has the potential to kill a little MCG momentum (if we even have it at that point!)

Thanks for responding on my behalf - said it better than I could have!

You don't get many opportunities to add a potentially game breaking, goal kicking, inside-outside mid with power and explosiveness. The game is built around them - Danger, Dusty, Trac etc. - and this type of player is a pretty consistent factor in getting teams a flag. Certainly has been over the last 10 years. Yes - of course you need a team around them - but Richmond would not have won at least 2 of their 3 flags without Dusty. Potentially all 3. We (probably) don't win 21 without Trac. Happy to go on record that Harley would be worth it. He looks as good a prospect as I've seen in the last 5 years of watching draftees. It's the right time to add a player like him into our midfield. Viney approaching 30 and will be banged up as soon as he hits father time. Trac at his peak, Oliver a year behind. If Reid takes 3 years to get going, it will keep us at the top echelon, and that should be the aim with the current draft hand we have. In terms of alternatives, I have some significant doubts on Duursma at AFL level. I have far more confidence in Watson making the grade, even at his diminutive height. He + Koz could be a small forward combination for the ages. Also like McKercher and think he could end up the best or 2nd best player from this draft. What is clear to me is that this draft falls away below the top 5 or 6, so if we need to use our picks in the teens and/or our F1 to get Reid, or Watson and McKercher together (doubtful), I'll have no issue with it.

I'm on record in another thread saying expected score can be a flawed metric, but worth pointing out we won expected score 95-85 yesterday, implying if anyone missed more shots than expected, it was us. They kicked poorly to start, we kicked poorly to finish. They also took a number of shots from very far out which to some degree our defence was responsible for.

Is there? Why did I think round 24 replaced the week off?

That's fair, but port smashed them in expected score last night as well. It's a good metric I agree, but they appear to be so skilful that measuring them against a competition average conversion rate unfairly downplays how good they are. Maybe they're just more skilled than average, and expected score is less relevant? Also agree that our defensive system gives us a shout. I just think with those 3 players I mentioned back in, they'll have too much firepower and we won't be able to go with them. Stranger things have happened though! Oliver is as good as Sidebottom, De Goey and Elliott combined? We all love Clarry but this is just a silly thing to say and it discredits the rest of your post. We beat Collingwood because we played a very good game, put a lot of work into their system and they were missing several gamebreakers from their lineup. They also may have been sick. Who knows. We agree that I would love us to rip them apart in a final. Don't mistake my respect for them as anything more than arms-length admiration for what they're doing. Every other side's supporters were saying in 21 that the Dees were May premiers. Then July premiers. Then August premiers. It doesn't always carry through, but it can. We also had doubters as we didn't have the credit of a prelim season the year before. This Collingwood team have been very good for a long time now. Yes, they win a lot of close games. It's too consistent to be a fluke. It's a trait. Definitely no Daicos badge, but again you have to respect what he's doing. He might be the single best decision maker I've seen since.... Pendlebury. In his 2nd year. He's winning the brownlow and Treloar on a recent podcast basically said he's the best footy player he's ever played against. I hope you're right and they falter badly, but right now you just need to sit back and applaud.

As much as I enjoyed the KB win, it won't have collingwood worried at all. Missing de goey, sidebottom and Elliott, half the team sick and If it went 2 mins longer they win. Those 3 are absolute matchwinners all in their own right, and had they played they would have beaten us. No doubt. Yes, we were missing Oliver, but right now that looks to be the status quo so it's an irrelevant point. They've also since inserted McStay who looked terrific last night and gives them another dimension moving forward as well. There is a sense of destiny and inevitability about them, regardless of what the demon apologists and nay sayers think about their position on the expected score ladder. They're a phenomenal team and right now, they deserve the flag more than anyone else. I'm pretty sure they'll get what they deserve.

Absolutely mate, well said. Couldn't believe it when I logged on and read negativity There's nothing like the fun that comes after a win like that in person. The urinal is fun, the donut stand is fun, the walk to the pub is fun and of course the pub was great. KFC on Bourke St was fun (and delicious, even though I willingly donated 2 of my wings to the happy strangers that asked). Even the Uber home was fun. Those Tesla's are pretty cool. Fun fun fun Sports Im still drunk evidently

Well that turned into quite a night. Home at 330 and like others in this thread now nursing a very sore head. Just a fantastic, rollercoaster game from two very good teams. To Deespencer and a small number of others finding something to complain about - honestly probably reconsider if following footy is good for you. Outside of finals and the ultimate day, last night is pretty much as good as it gets for any supporter. Just enjoy it and worry about our corridor defense in 3 days time!!

Think Judd is probably a reasonably good matchup for Charlie.