9 minutes ago, binman said:

This is a good example of the point I was making in another thread about the usefulness of stats on terms of helping understand the game is dependent on the quality of the analysis and the importance of using mutiple data points not a single stat.

You are right to note that there is a strong correlation between distance of kick outs and our drop-off in the last few years.

I saw that in a later post you discuss the distinction between correlation and causation, which is an important distinction as too often the media and fans conflate the two.

So for example, in this instance some might conclude the cause of our drop off in form has been kicking long to Maxy less often.

When in reality that stat is an indicator, a symptom, of the change to our method from a territory team to a transition team.

There are any number of stats that evidence that change, and that could be analysed in conjunction, for example with the change to our kick outs data, to drill down on the reasons for our poor win loss ratio in the last two seasons.

Two such, interrelated, stats are the big numbers we are giving up on turnover and our points against.

Taken together with the changes to our kick outs the stats are indicators of the change to our method.

And they also point to the opportunities for improvement - turn the ball over less (eg by increasing the number of above average kicks, the method becoming instinctive, get fitter etc etc) and when we do turn it over defend turnover more effectively (eg bringing in key defenders with good acceleration, the sytem becoming instinctive, stable back 7 etc etc).

Another way stats can be useful are to help evidence anecdotal observations, and understand what factors might be involved.

For example, I've said heaps this season that Maxy's contested marking has gone to another level. I'm not actually sure if that is reflected in the data (ie Maxy's CM numbers have increased) but anecdotally that's my vibe.

I've wondered if a factor has been the anecdotal evidence that we are kicking long to Maxy less often, including from kick outs.

My theory is where previously Maxy was often competing for a mark in huge packs, which obviously decreases the chances of marking, when we kick to hom he is more often one on one now or when the oppo kicks to him.he is often pushing back in defence and competing in packs that aren't set and/or don't have many players involved.

The kick out stats wheelo posted support my hypothesis (and yes, there is a risk of finding data that supports a hypothesis and/or reinforces a confirmation bias).

Yep, a lot of vague stats remind me of "a little knowledge is dangerous". In general more marks or more inside 50s leads to more wins. But we've all seen in recent times how counterproductive rushing kicks inside 50 have been. It would be fascinating if - if - someone had been at our every game for the last five years and they recorded our set-up at every kick in. It may well be (alongside what you said about Gawn) that less of our players are finding space outside the arc leaving the full back only someone still close to the opposition goal as the last resort to resume play. Of course it could be poor tactical positioning or too many slow or less fit players but, yeah, if we improve next year, we'll probably have more success with the kickouts.

Edited Monday at 00:025 days by Go Ds

14 hours ago, Tarax Club said:

Neil that's got me scratching my cranium. From the clues provided Young Will Verrall? Time at the weights has increased his strength at the contest. He can hold his ground, ruck craft has come on nicely too. Needs to develop his game around the ground though. Add more strings for his bow. Otherwise Oliver Sestan? Plently of praise for his return game yesterday.

If a picture is worth a thousand words? Luker Kentfield has some smoke about him. Great physique, given some terrific cameo performances at VFL level. Has some inner steel about him. Where there's smoke there's fire. Going to enjoy Casey's finals campaign. Bring on '26.

Seaton, TC. Been pushing for him all year, and just when in serious contention he got injured.

17 minutes ago, Neil Crompton said:

Seaton

I dunno, probably a bit long in the tooth for mine.

On 31/08/2025 at 09:05, DeeZone said:

It really is a great watch, scrappy in parts but our youngsters and Casey boys played some impressive football YesitwasaWin4tgeAges.

Absolutely belted them, how about young ooooozzzzzeee!

Long may it continue.

👏👏👏👏🇱🇮🏆🥇

I just managed to see Noah Yze's goal clips on you tube.

Seven straight - is there any precedent for a rookie draftee becoming a senior goal kicking coach?? 🤔 His set shot kicking is just so smooth (although he does have the habit, so widely pilloried when it is Max or Tracc, of spinning the ball before his final lining up and executing).

On 30/08/2025 at 23:39, rjay said:

You could see what the attraction of Kolt was for the talent spotters based on today's showing.

Lets hope he comes with the right attitude and puts in a decent preseason to kick off next season.

Whilst I agree here - the concern is whether or not he can ever bring those strengths to AFL level where the game is somewhere between 20-30% faster.

Watching him closely even the VFL, his biggest deficiency is he is flat footed and for a mid, not active at all around stoppages. There is a footy IQ/speed of thought/game sense here that is lacking. It's not a surprise he's struggled to stay involved at AFL level when you put it in context.

I think he's probably slightly below the pace of the game (intuitively) even at VFL level....more and more time as a mid will help this along until it normalises for him. Then after that, AFL and a similar normalisation period. The challenge will be whether we can wait that long.

It's a similar criticism I have of sparrow in the midfield. You need your highest game sense / IQ players in there who can read a tap, bounce, bobble, tackle etc and then react instictively in the moment to win possession/turn/release etc.

I can see the attributes...concern is whether they'll ever translate.

Humph. I was hoping to see a replay of the game. Hop over to the AFL site, eventually find the VFL and...it's highlights only. Even better the highlights show nothing of Casey until the third quarter. You'd think Casey didn't kick a goal in the first half. Even after that, they show Willie's goals in preference to ours.

6 minutes ago, thirty-one said:

Humph. I was hoping to see a replay of the game. Hop over to the AFL site, eventually find the VFL and...it's highlights only. Even better the highlights show nothing of Casey until the third quarter. You'd think Casey didn't kick a goal in the first half. Even after that, they show Willie's goals in preference to ours.

VFL Match Replay: Casey v Williamstown

https://www.afl.com.au/video/1407371

On 01/09/2025 at 19:34, fr_ap said:

Whilst I agree here - the concern is whether or not he can ever bring those strengths to AFL level where the game is somewhere between 20-30% faster.

Watching him closely even the VFL, his biggest deficiency is he is flat footed and for a mid, not active at all around stoppages. There is a footy IQ/speed of thought/game sense here that is lacking. It's not a surprise he's struggled to stay involved at AFL level when you put it in context.

I think he's probably slightly below the pace of the game (intuitively) even at VFL level....more and more time as a mid will help this along until it normalises for him. Then after that, AFL and a similar normalisation period. The challenge will be whether we can wait that long.

It's a similar criticism I have of sparrow in the midfield. You need your highest game sense / IQ players in there who can read a tap, bounce, bobble, tackle etc and then react instictively in the moment to win possession/turn/release etc.

I can see the attributes...concern is whether they'll ever translate.

Interesting thoughts about Kolt’s footy IQ. In theory or at least in testing this is a deficiency that can be addressed. Kolt in his draft combine came second in the agility test which when I investigated, it measures not just lateral movement but also speed of reaction and speed of decision making. That’s second in a draft that included Harley Reid, Nick Watson, Sanders, Windsor, Curtain and Wilson! Most of those guys are playing and keeping up with the pace.

So if he is struggling at the moment in that area, his testing says his potential is very high and the issue can be addressed with coaching, training, more game time and attitude adjustment?

On paper (draft testing and observation) we have a player with above average aggression, confidence, agility, decision making, endurance with adequate foot speed. It should work?

Not sure if it’s been mentioned previously here but I recall Yze senior from his earliest playing days, and junior Oooooz is equally as smooth and accurate kick as his father , who was regarded as elite in these skills, albeit a left footer .

1 hour ago, Earl Hood said:

Interesting thoughts about Kolt’s footy IQ. In theory or at least in testing this is a deficiency that can be addressed. Kolt in his draft combine came second in the agility test which when I investigated, it measures not just lateral movement but also speed of reaction and speed of decision making. That’s second in a draft that included Harley Reid, Nick Watson, Sanders, Windsor, Curtain and Wilson! Most of those guys are playing and keeping up with the pace.

So if he is struggling at the moment in that area, his testing says his potential is very high and the issue can be addressed with coaching, training, more game time and attitude adjustment?

On paper (draft testing and observation) we have a player with above average aggression, confidence, agility, decision making, endurance with adequate foot speed. It should work?

But that's a physical test. He might have the fastest reactions in the world, but if he doesn't have the footy brain that can see the game unfold slightly before it actually does, he'll lack the anticipation to be a top line mid.

15 minutes ago, fr_ap said:

But that's a physical test. He might have the fastest reactions in the world, but if he doesn't have the footy brain that can see the game unfold slightly before it actually does, he'll lack the anticipation to be a top line mid.

From what I read the agility test tries to determine a player’s speed to react to sudden changes and to make decisions.

I suspect if you score well in what can be measured, with coaching and application you can be a good AFL player. To be a great player you probably excel in those areas that can’t be measured, can’t be coached and that includes the ability to predict where the ball is going in tight spaces before it does and the ability to predict the bounce of the ball, for example.

13 hours ago, Random Task said:

VFL Match Replay: Casey v Williamstown

https://www.afl.com.au/video/1407371

Ooh, thanks! Dunno why it was only showing me highlights - too early? But still the grump about the highlights remains.

24 minutes ago, thirty-one said:

Ooh, thanks! Dunno why it was only showing me highlights - too early? But still the grump about the highlights remains.

I thought the highlights were made for Seagull fans to start with. Bizarre!