On 26/06/2025 at 11:32, binman said:

I can.

As ive noted on the pod a few times, we are implementing a new method based on fast transition (ie the modern game plan).

And contrary to the views of some we are implementing that method, or at least the all important ball movement part of it, very effectively.

As montagna notes our issue is how we enter inside 50, and of courseour woeful accuracy. Improve those aspects of our game and the gap between us and the very best teams closes significantly.

Which is worth considering when assessing where we are at vis a vis the conversation on another thread about how woeful we supposedly are.

Why do supporters like you draw a positive conclusion from the fact that we happen to be the one of the fastest at transitioning the ball from D-50 to inside 50 yet the net result is exactly the same as when we were playing a slower transition game?

Is it just because you like the idea of moving the ball quickly?

Collingwood who sit first on the AFL ladder are 13th on that list. Fast to move the ball with handball but slower by foot.

Again, the zoning in on these types of stats is for what reason exactly?

You casually point to the actual problem. Which you've been casually pointing to for some time, going on to say that if we improve our our accuracy at goal and efficiency inside 50 the gap between us and the best teams will close. I mean, how many times have we heard this?

So why not share your thoughts, (three years on and perhaps less casually this time) on what you think needs to be done to address it?

Would you agree that some significant chess pieces need to be moved to get us on our way?

Or are you (similarly to many on here) too attached to the individuals that make up our list?

Edited Friday at 16:312 days by Howard_Grimes

Melbourne v Adelaide (Round 17, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20251701

Key Team Stats

Stats in bold were won by Melbourne.

Stat	For	Against	Diff	AFL
Disposal Efficiency
Disposal Efficiency	74.2	72.6	+1.6	72.6
Kicking Efficiency	71.6	66.8	+4.8	66.1
Territory/Attack
Time In Forward Half	41.6	58.4	-16.8
Inside 50s	42	55	-13
Shots At Goal	24	25	-1
Scores Per Inside 50	52.4	45.5	+6.9	44.7
Goals Per Inside 50	26.2	23.6	+2.6	23.6
Marks Inside 50	8	17	-9
Transition
Chain To Score %	17.5	21.2	-3.7	20.8
Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %	15.9	20.7	-4.8	22.8
Defensive 50 To Score %	6.8	10.3	-3.5	9.6
Defensive Half To Forward 50 %	20.8	27.3	-6.5	31.1
Defensive Half To Score %	9.1	10.6	-1.5	13.0
Contest
Contested Possessions	133	129	+4
Ground Ball Gets	100	91	+9
Post Clearance Contested Poss	93	89	+4
Post Clearance Ground Ball Gets	69	67	+2
Contested Marks	9	11	-2
Clearance
Total Clearances	27	33	-6
Centre Clearances	9	14	-5
Stoppage Clearances	18	19	-1
First Possessions	34	30	+4
First Possession To Clearance %	73.5	90.0	-16.5	75.6
Defense
Intercepts	81	79	+2
Intercept Marks	20	17	+3
Tackles	53	53	+0
Tackles Inside 50	5	6	-1
Def One On One Loss %	14.3	33.3	-19.0	26.2
Ruck
Hitouts	28	41	-13
Hitouts To Advantage	4	10	-6

Transition stats measure how often chains result in a score or an inside 50. Chains include all kick-in chains, all clearances, and intercepts with at least one disposal in the chain.

• Chain To Score %: proportion of all chains that resulted in a score.

• Defensive 50 To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive 50 To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive 50 that resulted in a score.

• Defensive Half To Forward 50 %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in an inside 50.

• Defensive Half To Score %: proportion of all chains starting in the defensive half that resulted in a score.

Player Ratings

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	TOG
Jake Melksham	1.8	3.3	8.5	5.4	19.0	76%
Kysaiah Pickett	−1.4	8.8	4.3	2.3	13.9	85%
Trent Rivers	7.7	2.4	1.0	2.4	13.5	84%
Jake Lever	1.0	3.8	4.2	2.1	11.1	87%
Harvey Langford	2.9	2.8	4.1	1.2	11.0	78%
Steven May	2.7	5.3	−0.3	2.2	9.9	100%
Jacob van Rooyen	1.2	6.8	2.6	−0.9	9.6	74%
Max Gawn	1.8	4.0	5.0	−1.2	9.6	84%
Jack Viney	0.7	2.9	1.5	3.9	9.0	83%
Kade Chandler	5.6	0.1	1.4	1.6	8.8	88%
Tom Sparrow	4.0	0.7	−0.7	4.2	8.2	83%
Christian Petracca	0.0	0.6	0.8	6.7	8.0	86%
Clayton Oliver	6.0	1.6	0.6	−0.6	7.5	79%
Jake Bowey	0.8	0.3	1.6	4.4	7.1	80%
Christian Salem	1.7	0.8	2.5	1.5	6.5	80%
Daniel Turner	2.7	1.7	3.2	−1.9	5.6	92%
Xavier Lindsay	2.6	−0.4	2.8	0.5	5.5	67%
Koltyn Tholstrup	2.5	1.7	0.9	0.0	5.2	49%
Bayley Fritsch	0.7	0.8	0.3	2.5	4.3	76%
Ed Langdon	−1.0	0.8	1.8	2.5	4.2	93%
Harry Sharp	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.8	2.8	25%
Judd McVee	2.8	−0.1	1.4	−1.8	2.3	78%
Matthew Jefferson	−2.0	1.3	−1.4	0.1	−2.0	73%

Contested Possessions

	For	Against	Diff
Melbourne's Defensive 50
Hard Ball Get	2	4	-2
Loose Ball Get	10	8	+2
Contested Mark	3	4	-1
Gather From Hitout	0	1	-1
Free For	0	1	-1
Total	15	18	-3
Melbourne's Forward 50
Hard Ball Get	3	0	+3
Loose Ball Get	8	14	-6
Contested Mark	2	2	0
Free For	4	1	+3
Total	17	17	0
Post clearance
Hard Ball Get	17	8	+9
Loose Ball Get	52	59	-7
Contested Mark	9	11	-2
Contested Knock On	2	3	-1
Free For	13	8	+5
Total	93	89	+4
Pre clearance
Hard Ball Get	9	9	0
Loose Ball Get	22	15	+7
Ruck Hard Ball Get	3	1	+2
Gather From Hitout	4	8	-4
Contested Knock On	1	0	+1
Free For	1	7	-6
Total	40	40	0

• Official data on pre- and post-clearance contested possessions are not available. These have been estimated by Wheelo Ratings and should be indicative.

• Ground ball gets are inclusive of hard ball gets and loose ball gets.

• 'Free For' does not include free kicks to advantage or free kicks while in possession of the ball as these are not counted as contested possessions.

Expected scores

	xScore	Score	xWin %	xMargin	Margin	Swing
Melbourne	77.7	77	31%
Adelaide	86.4	90	69%	+8.8	+13	+4.2

	Shots	Score	Accuracy	xScore	+/-	xSc. / Shot	Shot Rating
Overall
Melbourne	24	11.10 76	45.8%	76.7	−0.7	3.19	−0.03
Adelaide	25	13.9 87	52.0%	83.4	+3.6	3.34	+0.14
General Play
Melbourne	11	4.6 30	36.4%	30.3	−0.3	2.76	−0.03
Adelaide	12	6.4 40	50.0%	36.9	+3.1	3.07	+0.26
Set Position
Melbourne	13	7.4 46	53.8%	46.4	−0.4	3.57	−0.03
Adelaide	13	7.5 47	53.8%	46.6	+0.4	3.58	+0.03

• xWin %: win probability based on expected scores.

• Swing: difference between expected margin and actual margin.

• xScore: total expected score from all shots taken.

• +/-: total score above or below expected score.

• xSc. / Shot: average expected score per shot. This represents the average shot difficulty.

• Shot Rating: average score above or below expected score per shot at goal.

Notes: Expected scores are calculated by Wheelo Ratings. Each shot at goal is assigned an expected score based on the distance from goal, shot angle, and type of shot (e.g. set shot, general play following contested possession, general play following uncontested possession, ground kick, etc) as a proxy for pressure. The model does not take into account factors like the player, whether the ball was kicked with their preferred or non-preferred foot, and pressure on the player when taking the shot. Rushed behinds are excluded from actual and expected scores.

Territory (time in zones)

Region	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Match	Season
Half
Forward	50%	29%	32%	55%	42%	51%
Defensive	50%	71%	68%	45%	58%	49%
Region
Forward 50	29%	14%	11%	21%	19%	25%
Attacking Midfield	21%	15%	21%	34%	23%	26%
Defensive Midfield	27%	41%	32%	26%	31%	26%
Defensive 50	23%	30%	37%	19%	27%	23%

Source: Calculated by Wheelo Ratings.

Score Sources

Summary

Score Source	Score	Against	Diff
Kick-in	1.2 8	1.0 6	+2
Centre Bounce	0.1 1	1.3 9	-8
Stoppage (Other)	3.2 20	2.1 13	+7
Turnover	7.6 48	9.8 62	-14

Score Source	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Kick-in	8	3.7	6	5.0
Centre Bounce	1	11.8	9	13.9
Stoppage (Other)	20	19.3	13	21.6
Turnover	48	43.6	62	49.9

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Adelaide.

Chain start region

Note: region is from the scoring team's perspective.

Region	For		Against
	Match	Season	Match	Season *
Defensive 50	8	10.9	13	17.3
Defensive midfield	14	15.6	14	21.6
Centre bounce	1	11.8	9	13.9
Attacking midfield	40	23.9	46	25.4
Forward 50	14	16.1	8	12.1

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Adelaide.

Points from defensive half

For		Against
Match	Season	Match	Season *
22	26.5	27	38.9

* Against season average represents average points conceded by Melbourne across the season, not average points scored by Adelaide.

Centre Bounce Attendances

	CBAs	CBA %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	24	86%	85.5%	85.0%
Christian Petracca	23	82%	74.4%	55.8%
Kysaiah Pickett	22	79%	71.1%	33.0%
Clayton Oliver	21	75%	71.0%	70.7%
Jack Viney	16	57%	68.9%	69.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	4	14%	12.4%	17.8%
Xavier Lindsay	2	7%	0.5%
Trent Rivers	0	0%	23.8%	29.9%
Harvey Langford	0	0%	14.4%
Tom Sparrow	0	0%	8.6%	37.7%
Ed Langdon	0	0%	4.5%	0.7%
Christian Salem	0	0%	1.8%	12.3%
Kade Chandler	0	0%	1.6%	0.0%
Matthew Jefferson	0	0%	1.4%
Judd McVee	0	0%	0.7%	6.3%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.3%	0.3%
Jake Melksham	0	0%	0.3%	0.0%
Koltyn Tholstrup	0	0%	0.0%	5.7%
Tom Fullarton			17.2%
Aidan Johnson			13.9%
Harrison Petty			0.5%	7.5%
Bailey Laurie			0.0%	11.0%
Charlie Spargo			0.0%	4.2%

Ruck Contests and Hitouts

Ruck Contests

	Ruck Contests	RC %	2025 %	2024 %
Max Gawn	66	85%	83.1%	81.1%
Jacob van Rooyen	12	15%	14.0%	17.6%
Matthew Jefferson	0	0%	1.6%
Daniel Turner	0	0%	0.4%	3.1%
Clayton Oliver	0	0%	0.1%	0.0%
Tom Fullarton			20.5%
Aidan Johnson			15.6%
Harrison Petty			0.9%	7.9%

Hitouts

	Ruck Contests	Hitouts	To Adv.	To Adv. % (2025)	To Adv. % (2024)
Melbourne
Max Gawn	66	25	3	25.8%	27.9%
Jacob van Rooyen	12	3	1	33.3%	24.7%
Matthew Jefferson	0	0	0	0.0%
Daniel Turner	0	0	0		50.4%
Harrison Petty				50.0%	24.4%
Tom Fullarton				43.8%
Aidan Johnson				21.1%
Opposition
Reilly O'Brien	66	36	10
Riley Thilthorpe	11	5	0

Melbourne v Adelaide (Round 17, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20251701

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	164	175	-11
2	190	166	+24
3	178	199	-21
4	176	177	-1
Match	176	179	-3

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Jack Viney	17	54	46.5
Kade Chandler	19	50	33.8
Clayton Oliver	20	47	51.8
Tom Sparrow	17	41	37.9
Kysaiah Pickett	15	31	37.2
Ed Langdon	15	29	30.7
Jake Bowey	11	28	28.6
Christian Petracca	14	27	37.0
Matthew Jefferson	12	25	16.6
Trent Rivers	10	24	28.9
Xavier Lindsay	8	21	25.5
Koltyn Tholstrup	12	19	25.6
Harvey Langford	8	19	21.6
Christian Salem	10	18	20.9
Judd McVee	8	18	16.6
Bayley Fritsch	7	17	19.3
Max Gawn	6	17	19.2
Jacob van Rooyen	6	16	20.8
Jake Lever	8	11	18.3
Jake Melksham	5	11	18.2
Steven May	6	8	9.8
Harry Sharp	5	7	18.9
Daniel Turner	2	2	15.6

Source: Herald Sun

So you're telling me, as a mid, Petracca attended the most center bounces, but he didn't even get one center clearance 😳

He also attended probably another 30 stoppages yet he finished the game with 0 clearances. Jake Soligo is half the player Trac is and he had 5 center clearances.

That's a very good reason to take him out of them next week and play him in the forward 50 and drop Fritsch.

3 hours ago, WheeloRatings said:

Melbourne v Adelaide (Round 17, 2025)

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20251701

Pressure

Team pressure

Quarter	For	Agn	Diff
1	164	175	-11
2	190	166	+24
3	178	199	-21
4	176	177	-1
Match	176	179	-3

Source: Herald Sun

Most Pressure Points

Note: pressure points are the weighed sum of pressure acts. Physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2. ( https://www.championdata.com/glossary/afl/ )

Player	Pressure Acts	Pressure Points	Season Average
Jack Viney	17	54	46.5
Kade Chandler	19	50	33.8
Clayton Oliver	20	47	51.8
Tom Sparrow	17	41	37.9
Kysaiah Pickett	15	31	37.2
Ed Langdon	15	29	30.7
Jake Bowey	11	28	28.6
Christian Petracca	14	27	37.0
Matthew Jefferson	12	25	16.6
Trent Rivers	10	24	28.9
Xavier Lindsay	8	21	25.5
Koltyn Tholstrup	12	19	25.6
Harvey Langford	8	19	21.6
Christian Salem	10	18	20.9
Judd McVee	8	18	16.6
Bayley Fritsch	7	17	19.3
Max Gawn	6	17	19.2
Jacob van Rooyen	6	16	20.8
Jake Lever	8	11	18.3
Jake Melksham	5	11	18.2
Steven May	6	8	9.8
Harry Sharp	5	7	18.9
Daniel Turner	2	2	15.6

Source: Herald Sun

Thanks Wheelo pressure ratings for both sides very close and JV led from the front, we ramped it up in the 2nd and they in the 3rd.

Have a look at this:

Monday Cal-culations: The team that doesn't know how to win, next top Don, unsung Tiger's praise

In 2021, 2023 and (yes) 2024, we were AFL number 1 for stopping scores per inside 50 entry conceded. We were third in that stat in 2022, as well.

This year?

18th.

Trying to move the ball faster, coupled with drops in form from May, Lever, McVee and Salem (in particular), has meant that we concede scores far too easily. It would have been expected that we'd drop down from being top 3 in that stat this year, given the attempt to move faster, but to drop all the way to [censored] last, when we were still 1st last year, is an abysmal result. But it doesn't get noticed as much because we keep butchering our set shots on goal.

12 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Have a look at this:

Monday Cal-culations: The team that doesn't know how to win, next top Don, unsung Tiger's praise

In 2021, 2023 and (yes) 2024, we were AFL number 1 for stopping scores per inside 50 entry conceded. We were third in that stat in 2022, as well.

This year?

18th.

Trying to move the ball faster, coupled with drops in form from May, Lever, McVee and Salem (in particular), has meant that we concede scores far too easily. It would have been expected that we'd drop down from being top 3 in that stat this year, given the attempt to move faster, but to drop all the way to [censored] last, when we were still 1st last year, is an abysmal result. But it doesn't get noticed as much because we keep butchering our set shots on goal.

Id be more worried about the form of Tracc,Oliver,Windsor,Chandler and Langers.Midfield turnovers hurt the backline

On 05/07/2025 at 02:28, Howard_Grimes said:

Why do supporters like you draw a positive conclusion from the fact that we happen to be the one of the fastest at transitioning the ball from D-50 to inside 50 yet the net result is exactly the same as when we were playing a slower transition game?

Is it just because you like the idea of moving the ball quickly?

Collingwood who sit first on the AFL ladder are 13th on that list. Fast to move the ball with handball but slower by foot.

Again, the zoning in on these types of stats is for what reason exactly?

You casually point to the actual problem. Which you've been casually pointing to for some time, going on to say that if we improve our our accuracy at goal and efficiency inside 50 the gap between us and the best teams will close. I mean, how many times have we heard this?

So why not share your thoughts, (three years on and perhaps less casually this time) on what you think needs to be done to address it?

Would you agree that some significant chess pieces need to be moved to get us on our way?

Or are you (similarly to many on here) too attached to the individuals that make up our list?

This is a bit harsh. Binman just gives us the facts based on the stats to show that we have drastically changed the way we play. He has also consistently called out our favourite sons in Gawn, Trac, Clarry and Viney as the key reason we are struggling going inside 50.

Atm we aren't quite nailing it for 100% of games, but we have been more than competitive against top 4 fancies Crows and Suns away from home.

I'm not happy with where we sit, but I can easily see what we are trying to become and can see we aren't that far off getting back to the top 8.

My view to this off season is we need to go out and bring in ready to go players. We don't need to go hard at the draft and we know we pretty much have K White signed up, Sinnema as an academy player and I'm guessing we may take one more player in the draft.

I'd be moving on McDonald (thank you), Billings, Fullarton, Hore, Woewodin & Campbell this off season plus Henderson.

Obviously we need Trac and Oliver to get back close to what they were, as that is really hurting us atm. I think Trac should be played majority forward from now onwards.

Then I'd be looking at the following in trades/FA:

• KPF - if McKay is keen to leave then he would be perfect (assuming Jackson isn't leaving Freo).

• Midfielder with speed - this may have to be Worpel as there aren't a heap of options and Hawks may be happy to move him on

• Small forward - we need to add another genuine small forward who can kick goals. Maybe this is Rosas Jnr but there could be other options that crop up.

8 hours ago, At the break of Gawn said:

So you're telling me, as a mid, Petracca attended the most center bounces, but he didn't even get one center clearance 😳

He also attended probably another 30 stoppages yet he finished the game with 0 clearances. Jake Soligo is half the player Trac is and he had 5 center clearances.

That's a very good reason to take him out of them next week and play him in the forward 50 and drop Fritsch.

I've found it quite strange tracc hasn't played forward mote often tgis season. Bately spent any time forward. Particularly strange given our challenges up forward.

I've completely lost patience with Fritter. After a handful of of decentgames he was back to being ineffectual and half hearted.

Not to mention selfish - hated him not giving the handball to kolt for a walk in goal.

I could see the argument going for it himself was actually the percentage play, I mean it was a gimme goal.

My issue was his instinct was to not consider handballing it to a teammate, or even feigning the give, which would have made it an even bigger gimme.

Long way of saying I 100% agree- drop Fritter and play tracc forward. I'd even like them to give clarry a run forward.

On fritter, Id go further - we don't have many players we haven't recently resigned with trade value. With his skill set and record, Fritter does have some trade value. And I'd be looking to trade him.

Edited 28 minutes ago28 min by binman

2 hours ago, DistrACTION Jackson said:

This is a bit harsh. Binman just gives us the facts based on the stats to show that we have drastically changed the way we play. He has also consistently called out our favourite sons in Gawn, Trac, Clarry and Viney as the key reason we are struggling going inside 50.

Atm we aren't quite nailing it for 100% of games, but we have been more than competitive against top 4 fancies Crows and Suns away from home.

I'm not happy with where we sit, but I can easily see what we are trying to become and can see we aren't that far off getting back to the top 8.

My view to this off season is we need to go out and bring in ready to go players. We don't need to go hard at the draft and we know we pretty much have K White signed up, Sinnema as an academy player and I'm guessing we may take one more player in the draft.

I'd be moving on McDonald (thank you), Billings, Fullarton, Hore, Woewodin & Campbell this off season plus Henderson.

Obviously we need Trac and Oliver to get back close to what they were, as that is really hurting us atm. I think Trac should be played majority forward from now onwards.

Then I'd be looking at the following in trades/FA:

• KPF - if McKay is keen to leave then he would be perfect (assuming Jackson isn't leaving Freo).

• Midfielder with speed - this may have to be Worpel as there aren't a heap of options and Hawks may be happy to move him on

• Small forward - we need to add another genuine small forward who can kick goals. Maybe this is Rosas Jnr but there could be other options that crop up.

Thanks DJ.

I didn't bother replying to an obvious troll.

If I had I might have pointed out that in reference to this nonsense.....

'Would you agree that some significant chess pieces need to be moved to get us on our way?

Or are you (similarly to many on here) too attached to the individuals that make up our list?'

.....I'd point them to last week's podcast where I talked at length about the need to bring in a high quality half back flanker with elite kicking skills and a gun medium forward, noting if it were up tp me I'd target Bergman (who sadly re-committed to port just a few days later), Wanganeen Milleara and Long from the Sun.

And how we get such trades done?

Well, i floated trading out Tracc, Rivers and Mcvee (though on reflection mvvee would be silly given his skill set - I'll replace Judd with Fritter for the reasons noted above).

Edited 15 minutes ago15 min by binman

It's always good to come on here to get the different views of different people watching the game, it's always interesting to see what different people picked up on.

Then, it's GREAT to get this data to have an objective view of things.

The pressure ratings were really interesting for mine. Their 3rd quarter really took it away from us. Amazing we were going so well in the 1st with a rating that low.

The final quarter was pretty even and there were definitely times we could have got back in front, but poor skill and execution let us down (again).

Thanks again Wheelo!