Today Geelong tomorrow Gold Coast

B: Tuohy, Blicavs, J.Henry

HB: Bews, De Koning, Stewart

C: Smith, C.Guthrie, Holmes

HF: Duncan, Cameron, Miers

F: Stengle, Hawkins, Rohan

FOLL: Stanley, Atkins, Dangerfield

IC: Kolodjashnij, Z.Guthrie, O'Connor, Close

Reserves

B: Bowes, Foster, Clark

HB: Kroeger, Murdoch, Simpson

C: Knevitt, Willis, Menegola

HF: Whyte, Ratugolea, O.Henry

F: Ceglar, Neale, Dempsey

FOLL: Conway, Parfitt, Bruhn

IC: Clohesy, Mullin, Riccardi, N\A

 

Geelong also have a spot on their list for a train on.

 

Somehow these teams have become my favourite part of the day, as much as I'd hate to admit it.

Let's be honest though, that's a team that no team wants to face. Very few holes and a coach you can back to make the right moves when needed. Will they win it again? Maybe. Will they not? Maybe.

An excellent but aging group, always hard to beat particularly down at the Cattery, we have to aim to emulate their longevity and long term success. May we put them to the sword in 2023 and beyond.!!!

The biggest question for Geelong is will their aging players have the desire to climb the mountain again.

It is never easy to back up after a flag and given half that team have been pushing for many years may make it even harder.

Hard to see them missing top 4. Much like mfc, the rest of the competition will be trying to work out how to beat them. 

Last year, they were 12-0 with a percentage of 200 in games they won uncontested posessions.

They had a percentage of 114 and lost 4 games when they lost uncontested.

Makes sense, list comprised of elite contested ball winners/markers and aging midfielders. Reckon to beat them have to be daring. Spread, run, carry, handball. Collingwood, basically. Er, not us. 

Or extreme pressure all across the ground and grind them relentlessly ala 2021 and hurt them on the turn over and of course by kicking straight.!!

The draw - 7 of their first 9 matches are in Victoria (at the MCG or GMHBA) which will help the old legs in their squad with only trips to Metricon and then to Adelaide for the 'Gather Round' to play West Coast before Rd 10.  They do have 5 six day breaks though in that first 9 rounds which may or may not be a factor depending on any niggles with their senior citizens.   I think they''ll have a solid enough start but AFL.com assessed them as having the equal hardest draw and playing Sydney, Collingwood, Freo, Port and the Bulldogs twice which makes it significantly harder than last year, but all those return matches bar the Pies are at GMHBA and of course they play us there as well - they do have to square off against Carlton and Richmond at the G though and I think both of those teams will challenge for the top 4. 

1. While they have the oldest list, it's also the most experienced and I don't expect the fall off the cliff unless there are significant games lost by Hawkins (possible he's got a foot complaint and will miss the start of the season at least) and the other 32 and over older players: Touhy, Blicavs, Stanley, Smith, Duncan and Dangerfield.  I think their support cast is solid without being spectacular and they seem thin in particular for depth in the key positions even though they didn't really need them last year.  It will be interesting to see whether the AFL world continues to laud their management approach after this year.  With the exception of Ceglar and Jack Henry they never really had too many injuries to senior players so were able to keep the best 22 together for long periods.   It might be harder for them to rest players the way they did last season with blocks of harder games in a row this year especially at the back end of the season where only St Kilda in the second last round looks easy on paper. 

2. They've got a good cohesive defence. – the third best in 2022 (though there was only a goal separating all three).  Stewart is elite, and De Koning might be by the end of the season as well and Henry can do the job on the third tall.  Then there’s always Blicavs they can swing back there.  The smaller players (with maybe the exception of Touhy) in Bews, Zac Guthrie, and Kolodjashni go about their job with a minimum of fuss and fanfare and they have the luxury of being able to throw Atkins back there if needed. Like all good defensive sides they also rely on their midfield being able to fold back to provide support, including their rucks.  It will be an interesting watch this year to see if they can maintain that work rate. 

3.  I think of all the lines the one area of concern for the Cats is their midfield.  That may seem odd given they’ve added Bowes and Bruhn, but only lost Selwood -whose on field direction and work in close they’ll miss.  They’ll still have a very strong first string on ball brigade in Duncan, Guthrie, Atkins and Dangerfield, in the middle and Smith and Holmes to lock in on the wings – (though they’re experimenting with Holmes as an inside mid).  The issue for me (and I do love mids that get first hands on the ball) is that while they’re an elite defensive side, they’re a very ordinary CP side, though strangely they had 5 players get over 200 CP for the year: Guthrie 245, Blicavs 213, Danger 210, Atkins 209 and Selwood 204.  It tells me there’s a lot of heavy lifting in there by only a few – one of whom has retired and two are 32 & 33.  It will be interesting to see if they continue to use O’Connor in a lockdown role (who only averages 13 possessions for 82% TOG) or run with a more creative mid in that position.  Their rucks (Stanley and Ceglar) are serviceable, but they aren’t in any conversations as match winners.

4. The fortunes of their forward line rest very much on the shoulders of Tom Hawkins who provides the structure they need.  Jezza isn’t that player – he’s a good second foil and he’s crucial in his own right, but his effectiveness is curtailed when Tom isn’t there.  With Stengle and Ollie Henry (who I think will replace Rohan) they have plenty of goals scoring options while Miers and Close play their roles as good as anyone.  The only question mark is whether father time (for Hawkins) or injuries (dodgy hammies for Jezza) disrupt their season.

5. The elephant in the room is age, while they rewrote history to win the premiership last year with the oldest list in AFL/VFL history - logic would say that its highly unlikely they will have the same good fortune twice in a row  (you do need luck on your side to win a premiership) and as our experience last year demonstrated it's tough to back up particularly as you get older. I expect them to win enough games to finish top four but am hoping they run out of petrol tickets come the finals. 

5. The player they can least afford to lose – I actually can’t pick just one.  I think there are four which might not be such a good sign for the Cats: Hawkins, Cameron, Blicavs and Stewart.  I was tempted to say five with Danger who for me the lynchpin of the midfield but I think they can sort of cover him, but given how critical the other four are to their structure they can't afford any on them to be watching from the stands.   For Chris Scott and how he coaches it is all about structure - well it is for most coaches, but he’s super reliant on having those players available – particularly when they play at the MCG.  Last year of a possible 25 matches they played respectively: 25, 24, 24 and 20 (Stewart’s suspension didn’t really cost them in the end).

The Cats will obviously be there and thereabouts again and I think they’re good enough to finish 2^nd at the end of the H&A.  Injuries will be critical to their fortunes as they are for most teams, but with their age profile  i'm expecting them to be more disruptive this season than last. 

Edited February 25, 20233 yr by grazman

their home ground advantage is so pronounced that i think you basically bank on them being top four if not for calamitous, serious injury to the key 4-5 players you outlined @grazman

I preferred the old Geelong, the perennial finalists who crashed and burned in September. They were fun to watch. A September highlight each year for me.

Edited February 26, 20233 yr by BDA

People expect the drop off, it could very well happen. Could they win it again? Yes they could. 

Fact is that this is a club that knows how to get to the pointy end and then it's a new tournament. If they stay healthy they will have another shot at it. 

On 12/6/2022 at 12:05 AM, WERRIDEE said:

Today Geelong tomorrow Gold Coast

B: Tuohy, Blicavs, J.Henry

HB: Bews, De Koning, Stewart

C: Smith, C.Guthrie, Holmes

HF: Duncan, Cameron, Miers

F: Stengle, Hawkins, Rohan

FOLL: Stanley, Atkins, Dangerfield

IC: Kolodjashnij, Z.Guthrie, O'Connor, Close

Reserves

B: Bowes, Foster, Clark

HB: Kroeger, Murdoch, Simpson

C: Knevitt, Willis, Menegola

HF: Whyte, Ratugolea, O.Henry

F: Ceglar, Neale, Dempsey

FOLL: Conway, Parfitt, Bruhn

IC: Clohesy, Mullin, Riccardi

Revised best 44 for Geelong