Everybody knows how I love my best 22's so I'm doing a best 44 for every club starting with Adelaide. Tomorrow Brisbane.

 

B: Smith, Worrell, Doedee

HB: Dawson, Butts, Milera

C: Hinge, Keays, Schoenberg

HF: Rachele, Fogerty, Rankine

F: Murphy, Walker, Thilthorpe

FOLL: O'Brien, Sloane, Laird

IC: Soligo, McHenry, Berry, Murray

 

Reserves

B: Sholl, McAsey, Seedsman

HB: Jones, Michalanney, Hamill

C: Hately, Crouch, Parnell

HF: Cook, Himmelberg, Nankervis

F: McAdam, Gollant, Pedlar

FOLL: Strachen, Dowling, Taylor

IC: McPherson, Borlase, Newchurch, Bond

I'm just impressed that someone on DL watches enough Adelaide games to know their side!

Thanks @WERRIDEE,  it's good to see what others think of the opposition for the up coming season.

 I'm going through every team and trying get a handle on their strengths and weaknesses to make my preseason forecasts and this includes challenging the assumptions I hold that could well be a serious case of confirmation bias such is my antipathy for the other 17 teams (vale Fitzroy who were the only team that came close to being my second side).

Making my prognostications I try to list the best 18 and then the next 10 best players (most sides will use somewhere around 38-40 players over the course of a season).  Typically I disregard 1st year draftees as some like Nick Daicos will be very good, but the overwhelming majority only have cameo moments and are rarely influential on the outcome of where sides finish. 

I think the starting 18 is just about right - although you could mount an argument for Shane McAdam who came 7th in their B&F to be at least in the 22 if not on the ground. 

So the draw: They play Brisbane, Port Collingwood, GCS, GWS and West Coast twice.  Based on last years form, only the last two I'm counting as gimmes.  They have a first up hitout away against the Giants before playing a block of tough matches against top eight aspirants in Richmond, Port, Freo and Carlton before they draw breath against the Hawks in Tassie.  They then play Collingwood, the Cats, Dogs, Lions and Suns (away) in the next five weeks.   I think its a possibility that they could be 3-10 going into the bye.

 

1. Darren Burgess- so we know they were significantly fitter last year and I expect that to repeat itself - won't have any problems running games out. 

2.  Defence seems to have all the right pieces in place with enough spread of age and experience.  Worrell is light on for games and I've penciled him in for key position post along with Butts and Doedee who are solid talls, Smith, Dawson, Milera provide good run and quality ball use, and I'm a fan of Nick Murray as a lockdown defender.

3. Rucks.  O'Brien is a good ruckman and Thilthorpe is developing well.  The only other ruckman is Kieran Strachan who won the Crows SANFL B&F and made the SANFL team of the year, but with only five games to his name, if O'Brien goes down (only missed two games last year when he was dropped)

4. Contested Ball winners.  They had two last year (Laird and Keays) that had more than 200 CP(we had 4).  I know they were missing Sloane (33 this year and coming back from an ACL) and Crouch is on the outer and it will be interesting to see if he forces his way back in or if his ticket has been punched.  They really need a Soligo, Berry or Sholl to really make an impact this year, but I'm not sure they can address this in one season. I know they have high hopes for Luke Pedlar, but he's unlikely to do that after only 5 senior games.   I know they were ranked 3rd overall for CPs as a team, but it's a very uneven spread in terms of workload and it's why initially I thought the player they could least afford to lose to injury was Rory Laird.

5.  Class - their forward line has it with Rachele and Rankine, but they need it in the midfield - as hard as they work, and tackle they lack big bodies and powerful brutes to break a game open.  Keays, Hinge, Berry, Sloane, Schoenberg are all honest players, but I doubt one of them forces their way into a top four midfield - well with the exception of Laird.  Anyone that's getting 360 CPs in a season is worth a spot in your midfield.   To me the player that sums up Adelaide is Ben Keays.  An honest hard worker that gives his all for the team, but in the back of your mind he's the place marker for the classy midfielder you need to draft/trade into the team.  The other big problem is the wings... with no Seedsman now they seem to be rather thin in this under-rated department. 

6.  Their most important player. - initially I had their B&F winner Rory Laird - but I've swapped it to the big Texan.  Without him I just don't think their forward line can work.  Fogarty made big improvements last year - but without Tex he gets the best defender and Thilthorpe the second best tall - I think it's probably a season too soon for that for both of them.  Tex is 33 this year and while there's no reason to believe he can't maintain that form (for some reason tall forwards don't decline as sharply with age as other footballers),  the older a player gets the more you worry about how prone they are to getting injured and how long it will take them to recover. Is he due for an on-field injury as opposed to his self-inflicted off-field damage?

The assumption I need to challenge is that Adelaide and Matthew Nicks will continue to build on their development over the last three seasons, 3 wins, 7 wins, 8 wins.  There'll be high hopes for a 10 - 12 win season.  Football trajectories are rarely linear though and I can see a slide on the cards for Adelaide.  I have too many concerns to have them winning more than 7-8 games, and if things go really wrong as they could with only the 2nd youngest and 2nd least experienced list in the comp it might be a difficult season for them.  I can see a scenario where they finish bottom four, but not one where they finish higher than 10th. 

 

Edited February 13, 20232 yr by grazman
My bad - Laird had 361 CP last season not 400 - that was Lachie Neale.

making dawson skipper in his second year on the list doesn't seem to bode well for the future contract of doedee, their vice-captain under sloane

i'm guessing he's off to to be geelong's chb in 2024

2 hours ago, grazman said:

Thanks @WERRIDEE,  it's good to see what others think of the opposition for the up coming season.

 I'm going through every team and trying get a handle on their strengths and weaknesses to make my preseason forecasts and this includes challenging the assumptions I hold that could well be a serious case of confirmation bias such is my antipathy for the other 17 teams (vale Fitzroy who were the only team that came close to being my second side).

Making my prognostications I try to list the best 18 and then the next 10 best players (most sides will use somewhere around 38-40 players over the course of a season).  Typically I disregard 1st year draftees as some like Nick Daicos will be very good, but the overwhelming majority only have cameo moments and are rarely influential on the outcome of where sides finish. 

I think the starting 18 is just about right - although you could mount an argument for Shane McAdam who came 7th in their B&F to be at least in the 22 if not on the ground. 

So the draw: They play Brisbane, Port Collingwood, GCS, GWS and West Coast twice.  Based on last years form, only the last two I'm counting as gimmes.  They have a first up hitout away against the Giants before playing a block of tough matches against top eight aspirants in Richmond, Port, Freo and Carlton before they draw breath against the Hawks in Tassie.  They then play Collingwood, the Cats, Dogs, Lions and Suns (away) in the next five weeks.   I think its a possibility that they could be 3-10 going into the bye.

 

1. Darren Burgess- so we know they were significantly fitter last year and I expect that to repeat itself - won't have any problems running games out. 

2.  Defence seems to have all the right pieces in place with enough spread of age and experience.  Worrell is light on for games and I've penciled him in for key position post along with Butts and Doedee who are solid talls, Smith, Dawson, Milera provide good run and quality ball use, and I'm a fan of Nick Murray as a lockdown defender.

3. Rucks.  O'Brien is a good ruckman and Thilthorpe is developing well.  The only other ruckman is Kieran Strachan who won the Crows SANFL B&F and made the SANFL team of the year, but with only five games to his name, if O'Brien goes down (only missed two games last year when he was dropped)

4. Contested Ball winners.  They had two last year (Laird and Keays) that had more than 200 CP(we had 4).  I know they were missing Sloane (33 this year and coming back from an ACL) and Crouch is on the outer and it will be interesting to see if he forces his way back in or if his ticket has been punched.  They really need a Soligo, Berry or Sholl to really make an impact this year, but I'm not sure they can address this in one season. I know they have high hopes for Luke Pedlar, but he's unlikely to do that after only 5 senior games.   I know they were ranked 3rd overall for CPs as a team, but it's a very uneven spread in terms of workload and it's why initially I thought the player they could least afford to lose to injury was Rory Laird.

5.  Class - their forward line has it with Rachele and Rankine, but they need it in the midfield - as hard as they work, and tackle they lack big bodies and powerful brutes to break a game open.  Keays, Hinge, Berry, Sloane, Schoenberg are all honest players, but I doubt one of them forces their way into a top four midfield - well with the exception of Laird.  Anyone that's getting 400 CPs in a season is worth a spot in your midfield.   To me the player that sums up Adelaide is Ben Keays.  An honest hard worker that gives his all for the team, but in the back of your mind he's the place marker for the classy midfielder you need to draft/trade into the team.  The other big problem is the wings... with no Seedsman now they seem to be rather thin in this under-rated department. 

6.  Their most important player. - initially I had their B&F winner Rory Laird - but I've swapped it to the big Texan.  Without him I just don't think their forward line can work.  Fogarty made big improvements last year - but without Tex he gets the best defender and Thilthorpe the second best tall - I think it's probably a season too soon for that for both of them.  Tex is 33 this year and while there's no reason to believe he can't maintain that form (for some reason tall forwards don't decline as sharply with age as other footballers),  the older a player gets the more you worry about how prone they are to getting injured and how long it will take them to recover. Is he due for an on-field injury as opposed to his self-inflicted off-field damage?

The assumption I need to challenge is that Adelaide and Matthew Nicks will continue to build on their development over the last three seasons, 3 wins, 7 wins, 8 wins.  There'll be high hopes for a 10 - 12 win season.  Football trajectories are rarely linear though and I can see a slide on the cards for Adelaide.  I have too many concerns to have them winning more than 7-8 games, and if things go really wrong as they could with only the 2nd youngest and 2nd least experienced list in the comp it might be a difficult season for them.  I can see a scenario where they finish bottom four, but not one where they finish higher than 10th. 

 

You never mentioned Dawson He's as important as any of them and has class.

Edited February 12, 20232 yr by WERRIDEE

I was about to say they are one of the most irrelevant teams of the past 5 seasons....

But then I contemplated the question: What if Adelaides close win against us in 2021 where they run and gunned it through the corridor, provided the blueprint for Sydney, Collingwood and Geelong in 2022...

 

 

 

Edited February 12, 20232 yr by John Demonic

7 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

You never mentioned Dawson He's as important as any of them and has class.

Actually I did in point 2, but I agree he's important - 2nd in their B&F and maybe they continue to push him up onto a wing  but I think he is more a half back, maybe my bias but I don't see him as a genuine winger like Lingers.  

The class they have tends to be off half back (Dawson, Smith, Milera) and now at half forward with Rankine and Rachele  - they need some through the midfield.

Edited February 12, 20232 yr by grazman

Enjoyable and inciteful read thanks Grazman. I look forward to the next installment.

On 11/30/2022 at 11:41 PM, WERRIDEE said:

Everybody knows how I love my best 22's so I'm doing a best 44 for every club starting with Adelaide. Tomorrow Brisbane.

 

B: Smith, Worrell, Doedee

HB: Dawson, Butts, Milera

C: Hinge, Keays, Schoenberg

HF: Rachele, Fogerty, Rankine

F: Pedlar, Walker, Himmelberg

FOLL: O'Brien, Sloane, Laird

IC: Soligo, Michalanney, Berry, Murray

 

Reserves

B: Sholl, Keane, McPherson

HB: Jones, Borlase, Hamill

C: Hately, Crouch, Parnell

HF: McHenry, Thilthorpe, Brown

F: McAdam, Gollant, Murphy

FOLL: Strachen, Dowling, Taylor

IC: Cook, Newchurch, Bond, Nankervis, Seedsman

 

Revised best 44 for Adelaide