On 01/12/2022 at 05:32, Whispering_Jack said:

Stuff and nonsense. As pointed out above there are many reasons why these exercises are pointless, the main one being that if you have a poor season you have a better chance of rating well simply because you get the early choices or if you’re lucky enough to have a couple of decent father sons then you’ve got the magic, golden ticket.

Gold Coast get a B but the background is that they sold a top 10 pick for salary gap relief and gave away a quality player to get pick 6. And for that solitary 2022 selection of theirs, they got a “B”? The jury is still out on their 2021 picks as well. 

This is rubbish passing for “news”.

Couldn’t agree more.

Draft badly and win the flag and suddenly the bad draft was a brilliant one.

Evaluating a draft is just ridiculous and even Shifter Sheahan says every player drafted is great and a potential star. Really?

 

Edited December 1, 20222 yr by Redleg

If you have a swag of first round picks I expect you to get an A+ ranking. 

  On 30/11/2022 at 08:47, Nascent said:

Dude just does not like Melbourne.

I’ve been one of Doerre’s critics in recent times but, to be fair, it should be recognised that his own views on Jefferson are no different to those which he held before Melbourne traded into the first round of the draft and became one of the front runners to get him. 

He posted this podcast entitled “AFL Draft Power Rankings tier list August 2022 (Top-50)” outlining how he ranked the draft prospects at the end of August in three different tiers. He placed Jefferson in the third tier and explained why (around 24/25 minutes in). On that basis, you have to respect his views even if you disagree with them.

The three tiers were -

Tier 1

Will Ashcroft Aaron Cadman Mattaes Phillipou Harry Sheezel Elijah Tsatas George Wardlaw 

Tier 2 

Jedd Busslinger Jhye Clarke  Bailey Humphrey Henry Hustwaite Cam McKenzie

Tier 3

Jaxon Binns Charlie Clarke Alwyn Davey Jr Adam D’Aloia Blake Drury Brayden George  Reuben Ginbey Lewis Hayes Elijah Hewett Oliver Hollands Olli Hotton Matthew Jefferson Isaac Keeler Noah Long Harry Rowston Kobe Ryan Jacob Ryan Mitch Szybkowski Casey Voss

He didn’t get too many on the list wrong although Hustwaite “the next Patrick Cripps??” slipped through to pick 37, one before Melbourne’s second pick (I wonder if we might have picked him if he was still available?)

The other thing to note is the difference between power rankings and a phantom draft. He placed Jefferson at #10 in his September draft because that was where he saw an AFL club selecting him.

 I’ve gone back to the vision of Jefferson in some of his Under 18 National Draft games to see if Doerre’s criticisms stood up. MJ kicked 14 goals across the four games and his seven against WA was the standout.

Obviously, when you’re getting delivery from a dominant midfield like he did in that superb five goal third quarter, it’s a bonus but I did notice some aspects to his game that Doerre might have missed out on. The final game vs Vic Country was a much tougher one for him but he still managed two goals including one important one in the final moments. He moved well around the ground, provided some scoring assists and executed a great smother. There’s plenty there for the club to work on and he compares well with the more strongly built Cadman.

All in all, I’m looking forward to the day when he and JVR form part of a very formidable key forward combination and I disagree with Doerre’s suggestion that he might become a key defender. He said much the same about JVR last year and I suppose that it might happen but it’s unlikely.

  On 03/12/2022 at 21:41, Whispering_Jack said:

I’ve been one of Doerre’s critics in recent times but, to be fair, it should be recognised that his own views on Jefferson are no different to those which he held before Melbourne traded into the first round of the draft and became one of the front runners to get him. 

He posted this podcast entitled “AFL Draft Power Rankings tier list August 2022 (Top-50)” outlining how he ranked the draft prospects at the end of August in three different tiers. He placed Jefferson in the third tier and explained why (around 24/25 minutes in). On that basis, you have to respect his views even if you disagree with them.

The three tiers were -

Tier 1

Will Ashcroft Aaron Cadman Mattaes Phillipou Harry Sheezel Elijah Tsatas George Wardlaw 

Tier 2 

Jedd Busslinger Jhye Clarke  Bailey Humphrey Henry Hustwaite Cam McKenzie

Tier 3

Jaxon Binns Charlie Clarke Alwyn Davey Jr Adam D’Aloia Blake Drury Brayden George  Reuben Ginbey Lewis Hayes Elijah Hewett Oliver Hollands Olli Hotton Matthew Jefferson Isaac Keeler Noah Long Harry Rowston Kobe Ryan Jacob Ryan Mitch Szybkowski Casey Voss

He didn’t get too many on the list wrong although Hustwaite “the next Patrick Cripps??” slipped through to pick 37, one before Melbourne’s second pick (I wonder if we might have picked him if he was still available?)

The other thing to note is the difference between power rankings and a phantom draft. He placed Jefferson at #10 in his September draft because that was where he saw an AFL club selecting him.

 I’ve gone back to the vision of Jefferson in some of his Under 18 National Draft games to see if Doerre’s criticisms stood up. MJ kicked 14 goals across the four games and his seven against WA was the standout.

Obviously, when you’re getting delivery from a dominant midfield like he did in that superb five goal third quarter, it’s a bonus but I did notice some aspects to his game that Doerre might have missed out on. The final game vs Vic Country was a much tougher one for him but he still managed two goals including one important one in the final moments. He moved well around the ground, provided some scoring assists and executed a great smother. There’s plenty there for the club to work on and he compares well with the more strongly built Cadman.

All in all, I’m looking forward to the day when he and JVR form part of a very formidable key forward combination and I disagree with Doerre’s suggestion that he might become a key defender. He said much the same about JVR last year and I suppose that it might happen but it’s unlikely.

Don't make excuses for the boy ! 

  On 30/11/2022 at 01:50, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I'm not arguing for or against the Fox ranking, but it's foolish to rank the draft without combining it with the trade period and all other list movements. 

Agreed, and it is premature, as well. How can such an assessment in reality accommodate so many open yet nefarious qualities in so many players (juniors, without a depth of experience) across a footy ground multiplied by so many X-factors applicable to each individual player and team from whence they came? There has been no time, as yet, for these 'try-outs' to merge in their new environments under critical supervision and extended team-based interaction, skills development and game plan/strategy implementation. Perhaps, after off-season continuing involvement, a better, more realistic appraisal can be made and that in itself is quite hopeful.

 

The problem with ranking a draft is that players like Oliver Sestan who is a unknown had no exposure in the NAB league but played for his school and some country U18.

Just looking at his size and weight if he played in the midfield in the NAB he could have been a star but if he was overlooked by NAB coaches was there a bias or a flaw.

Sometimes players when players get picked in teams the coach looks at the player and judges they are too short or too fat al la Clayton Oliver.

Yet Clayton would now be the first pick in his draft year the players like Jacob Weitering, Josh Schache and Callum Mills were picked before him.

Josh Schache would probably be a pick in he 40's, Aaron Francis would also be in the 40's and Sam Weideman would be in the 40's.

Which proves my point there is no science in picking a recruit just gut feel and hope for the best.

In 2013 Patrick Cripps was pick 13.

Edited December 3, 20222 yr by durango

  On 30/11/2022 at 10:13, rjay said:

If he finds it 6 times a game for 6 goals then I will be more than happy.

If he finds it 5 times a game for 5 goal then I will be absolutely and ecstatically delighted!

Now the Herald Sun has come out with the lists for 2023 and whether clubs have improved, neutral or gone backwards relative to 2022 and MFC falls into the improved list, whilst Fremantle is in the neutral list.

What this means is anybodies guess because NM is in the improved list, whilst Geelong is in the neutral list.

Depends on where you finished on the ladder I guess.

  On 03/12/2022 at 21:41, Whispering_Jack said:

All in all, I’m looking forward to the day when he and JVR form part of a very formidable key forward combination and I disagree with Doerre’s suggestion that he might become a key defender. He said much the same about JVR last year and I suppose that it might happen but it’s unlikely.

If Bevo was coaching the Dees our spine in a few years would probably be:

FF: Adams
CHF: Petty
CHB: Jefferson
FB: JVR 

Theres even a chance that will be our spine with Goody coaching! 

As for draft rankings, it’s not exactly clear who we should’ve taken to achieve a better result. The consensus clear cut prospects were gone by our pick 

We probably had only a couple of options that I would’ve preferred.

1. Take the hawks trade back. 
Pro: draft Ryan, Burgiel or Cowan, bank an early second next year 
Con: the bonus 2nd rounder next year would give us such an overload of picks we’d be competing against ourselves to draft players

2. Ed Allan or Weddle
Pro: athletic freaks who could provide wing or defensive mid and take the physical load off Tracc and Clarry as they age
Con: both developmental prospects with limited sample size to suggest they are future afl mids 

I can see why they went Jefferson. Key forwards outside the top 5 picks are rarely perfect prospects and trading for them in their prime is at best incredibly expensive, at worst just not possible for small clubs. 

2022 AFL Draft Review: Melbourne