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POSTGAME: Rd 13 vs Collingwood

Demonland
in Melbourne Demons

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On 6/15/2022 at 10:13 AM, 1964_2 said:

Can’t criticise anyone for an opinion.

Rather anyone that thinks Dees top 4 is a long shot, should be loading up on who they think will replace us :- as we are currently paying $1.25 for top 4. 

That represents terrible value given our current injuries, form and upcoming fixture.

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    •  

    The betting markets don't think the wheels have fallen off at MFC, and unlike footy "experts" in the media, they are actually held accountable for their prognostications.  

     

     

    20220616_040300845_iOS.png

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    1 minute ago, Vipercrunch said:

    The betting markets don't think the wheels have fallen off at MFC, and unlike footy "experts" in the media, they are actually held accountable for their prognostications.  

     

     

    20220616_040300845_iOS.png

    more like covering their own backsides.  keep us short while the challengers all come in

    I'll wait until we lose to the crows to put my money on us

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    • Like 1
     
    3 hours ago, Vipercrunch said:

    The betting markets don't think the wheels have fallen off at MFC, and unlike footy "experts" in the media, they are actually held accountable for their prognostications.  

     

     

    20220616_040300845_iOS.png

    That's the correct conclusion, but a slighty wrong premise. 

    The bookies frame the initial market. And that is very much based on their assessment of the 'true odds' of a certain event occurring, in this case the dees winning the flag.

    The better they are at this assessment the more money they make.

    That is because the art of punting is finding value - which means making your own assessment of the true odds and backing 'overs' (ie over the true odds). Successful punters are good at this assessment (and disciplined enough not to accept 'unders' or search for a bet for a bets sake) and look to take advantage of any overs. So bookies who get that initial price wrong lose money.

    In this scenario, when the bookies opened the 2022 GF market last year, their assessment of the true odds of the dees winning the flag was something like $3.20 (which was the price the dees opened).  

    From that point the 'market' determines the odds the bookies offer. The market is punters betting.

    So, early doors, we start winning, look like the best tam in the AFL, and the punters come for us and slam the $3.60. The bookies then respond by trimming the odds of the dees (and 'turning out' the odds of other contenders) to limit the hit to their bottom line if the dees do win the flag and to balance their overall exposure.

    And we start losing and our price drifts and other contenders tighten.  

    So in fact your conclusion caries even more weight. A punter backing the dees is putting their own hard earned money on  us - it is not some unaccountable prognostication.

    The bigger the pool of money, the more people are backing up their assessment of who will win the flag.

    And the bigger the pool the more it is dominated by professional punters who make a living out of punting, so are clear eyed and unemotional about their betting choices. 

    For some bet types the pool is so small the price offered for a particular bet isn't a good indication of the true odds. But in big pools the price is an excellent indication of the true odds.

    There is likely to be something in the order of $1.5 million dollars in the Sportsbet GF pool, so you can be pretty confident $3.60 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning a flag.

    I'm amazed it hasn't drifted further after our loss to the pies and the news about gawn being out for 5 weeks.

    What that indicates is that the pros (who are the ones that have the most influence on the price) have not backed any of the other contenders to any great degree and the market still has us as clear favorites to win the flag.  

     

    Edited by binman

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    • Thanks 1
    2 hours ago, binman said:

    That's the correct conclusion, but a slighty wrong premise. 

    The bookies frame the initial market. And that is very much based on their assessment of the 'true odds' of a certain event occurring, in this case the dees winning the flag.

    The better they are at this assessment the more money they make.

    That is because the art of punting is finding value - which means making your own assessment of the true odds and backing 'overs' (ie over the true odds). Successful punters are good at this assessment (and disciplined enough not to accept 'unders' or search for a bet for a bets sake) and look to take advantage of any overs. So bookies who get that initial price wrong lose money.

    In this scenario, when the bookies opened the 2022 GF market last year, their assessment of the true odds of the dees winning the flag was something like $3.20 (which was the price the dees opened).  

    From that point the 'market' determines the odds the bookies offer. The market is punters betting.

    So, early doors, we start winning, look like the best tam in the AFL, and the punters come for us and slam the $3.60. The bookies then respond by trimming the odds of the dees (and 'turning out' the odds of other contenders) to limit the hit to their bottom line if the dees do win the flag and to balance their overall exposure.

    And we start losing and our price drifts and other contenders tighten.  

    So in fact your conclusion caries even more weight. A punter backing the dees is putting their own hard earned money on  us - it is not some unaccountable prognostication.

    The bigger the pool of money, the more people are backing up their assessment of who will win the flag.

    And the bigger the pool the more it is dominated by professional punters who make a living out of punting, so are clear eyed and unemotional about their betting choices. 

    For some bet types the pool is so small the price offered for a particular bet isn't a good indication of the true odds. But in big pools the price is an excellent indication of the true odds.

    There is likely to be something in the order of $1.5 million dollars in the Sportsbet GF pool, so you can be pretty confident $3.60 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning a flag.

    I'm amazed it hasn't drifted further after our loss to the pies and the news about gawn being out for 5 weeks.

    What that indicates is that the pros (who are the ones that have the most influence on the price) have not backed any of the other contenders to any great degree and the market still has us as clear favorites to win the flag.  

     

    As someone who has never placed a bet in my life, I'm more than happy to be schooled by you @binman about this.  In 5 weeks when we're 12-6, hopefully you get the odds you are looking for.  Then the fun begins 🔴🔵🔴🔵

  • Quote

    5 hours ago, binman said:

    That's the correct conclusion, but a slighty wrong premise. 

    The bookies frame the initial market. And that is very much based on their assessment of the 'true odds' of a certain event occurring, in this case the dees winning the flag.

    The better they are at this assessment the more money they make.

    That is because the art of punting is finding value - which means making your own assessment of the true odds and backing 'overs' (ie over the true odds). Successful punters are good at this assessment (and disciplined enough not to accept 'unders' or search for a bet for a bets sake) and look to take advantage of any overs. So bookies who get that initial price wrong lose money.

    In this scenario, when the bookies opened the 2022 GF market last year, their assessment of the true odds of the dees winning the flag was something like $3.20 (which was the price the dees opened).  

    From that point the 'market' determines the odds the bookies offer. The market is punters betting.

    So, early doors, we start winning, look like the best tam in the AFL, and the punters come for us and slam the $3.60. The bookies then respond by trimming the odds of the dees (and 'turning out' the odds of other contenders) to limit the hit to their bottom line if the dees do win the flag and to balance their overall exposure.

    And we start losing and our price drifts and other contenders tighten.  

    So in fact your conclusion caries even more weight. A punter backing the dees is putting their own hard earned money on  us - it is not some unaccountable prognostication.

    The bigger the pool of money, the more people are backing up their assessment of who will win the flag.

    And the bigger the pool the more it is dominated by professional punters who make a living out of punting, so are clear eyed and unemotional about their betting choices. 

    For some bet types the pool is so small the price offered for a particular bet isn't a good indication of the true odds. But in big pools the price is an excellent indication of the true odds.

    There is likely to be something in the order of $1.5 million dollars in the Sportsbet GF pool, so you can be pretty confident $3.60 is pretty close to the true odds of us winning a flag.

    I'm amazed it hasn't drifted further after our loss to the pies and the news about gawn being out for 5 weeks.

    What that indicates is that the pros (who are the ones that have the most influence on the price) have not backed any of the other contenders to any great degree and the market still has us as clear favorites to win the flag.  

     

    The starting odds for the Swans ($4.20) and the filth ($4) offered by Sportsbet were ridiculously generous. The odds reduced in the following days.

    I put money on both these sides, and won a tidy sum. Or should that be tidy sums? Having said that, I would have preferred to lose my money by seeing the Dees win.

    I never bet on the Dees ... if they lost it would feel like I was punished twice.

  • Quote
    5 minutes ago, Winners at last said:

    The starting odds for the Swans ($4.20) and the filth ($4) offered by Sportsbet were ridiculously generous. The odds reduced in the following days.

    I put money on both these sides, and won a tidy sum. Or should that be tidy sums? Having said that, I would have preferred to lose my money by seeing the Dees win.

    I never bet on the Dees ... if they lost it would feel like I was punished twice.

    Neither, if I bet on Melb games now it's just a same game multi with no head to head leg 😀

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    • Like 1
    On 6/13/2022 at 10:13 PM, dazzledavey36 said:

    So? It literally has no bearing in a round about way.

    This never seemed to affect Richmond and Hawthorn when they won flags each year.

    The amount t of excuses thrown up on here is seriously laughable. 

    I hold my judgement and will check back with you in a months time Dd36 and we will discuss further.

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